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2011 Charleston Multifamily Forecast          Supply is on the way!
National Multifamily Overview     Vacancy Rates Steadily          SIGNIFICANT DEMAND - Units         DECREASING           ...
Charleston Multifamily Development Pipeline                    NORTH CHAS – 620 UNITS  SUMMERVILLE – 300 UNITS            ...
New Development on Upper King Street – Downtown Charleston                                                                ...
New Downtown Multifamily Development – 200 Units
New Development Downtown - Spring Elevation
2011 Charleston Multifamily Forecast• Economics for both existing assets and new development projectsthat are the first to...
PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION...INTEGRATE INTERNET SALES...DOWNSIZE STORE PROTOTYPE...INVEST IN EXISTING STORES...SUSTAINABILITY ...
APPAREL                        GROCER                                    SPORTING GOODS & BOATINGELECTRONICS, OFFICE SUPPL...
RENT COMPRESSION FOR ANCHOR TENANTS…REDUCTION IN NUMBER OF STORES AND PROJECTS…FLIGHT TO QUALITY…DOWNSIZING CREATES OPPORT...
JOB CREATION IS BRINGING MORE CONSUMERS...DEMOGRAPHIC MIGRATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...QUALITY OF LIFE BRINGS DIVERSE OPPOR...
U.S. COMPANIES RACK UP BIG PROFITS DESPITE SLOWING ECONOMY...RECOVERY REMAINS FRAGILE...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS STIFLING EMPLO...
INDUSTRIAL LEASING CONTINUES ABSORBING 1 BUILDING PER MONTHCLASS A SPACE IS VIRTUALLY GONE...INDUSTRIAL LAND SALES PRICE R...
PROXIMITY TO BOEING...EXPANDING GLOBAL TRADE ATTRACTS NEW SHIPS AND MORE CONTAINERS...PRO-BUSINESS GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO...
The Big Picture(Looking For Perspective in a Changing World)                 Ted Abernathy
How is the Economy?
U.S. Chamber Small Business SurveyThe U.S.          8%        Your BusinessEconomy                8%            84%       ...
The Last Decade Was….Not Good30%      27%25%                22%                             20%20%15%10%                  ...
The Last Decade Was….Not Good45%                 40%       40%40%         34%35%30%25%20%                                 ...
The Last Decade Was….Not Good70%                           61%60%                 47%50%40%          27%30%20%            ...
And then The Recession Made Things Worse
Recession & Weak Recovery Impacts   Soaring poverty rates (15.1% most since 1993)   Black poverty rate 27%   Male worke...
With Full Credit to TIP StrategiesA Picture isWorth aThousandwords
Today Is the Economic Glass             ½ Full or ½ Empty ?“Get your facts first then you can  distort them as much as you...
“4 Ounces”
Globally
Unemployment Rates12%                                                            10.8%                                    ...
Projected GDP Growth 2011                     9.0%9%                                                             7.9%7%5% ...
Trade balance as % of GDP 5%                                                                              4.9%            ...
U.S. Exports & Imports                    (Goods)$4,500,000             In $Millions$4,000,000$3,500,000$3,000,000$2,500,0...
U.S. Exports 2009-2011                            42% Increase$180,000$160,000$140,000$120,000$100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40...
Less than 1% of U.S. firms export and of those thatdo more than ½ export to    only one country
Exports Per Capita                     (2009)                              $7,76480007000                                 ...
Nationally
Employment Monthly Net       Change 2000- Sept 2011600       In thousands      125,000 Jobs/Mo. To keep pace with growth40...
How Many New Jobs in the Last Year?           September 2010 to August 2011   1,288,000 or 1% job growth in private    se...
Job Growth- Last 12 Months   44 of 50 states had job growth   Biggest growth- Texas +269,000, California    +189,600, Ne...
Personal Savingas a % of Disposable Personal Income6%                                                      5.5%       5.2%...
Source: Economics and Statistics                                                                                          ...
US Firms in Forbes Global 2000800700       751600500                    536400300200100  0       2004         2011        ...
US Firms in Forbes Global 2000         Growth in 2010100%                     Overall, last year was one of the most 90%  ...
Stock Markets …?
Regionally
Brookings Metro Monitor2nd Quarter 2011Recession and Recovery
Employment Changes in the South      July 2010- July 2011300           In thousands                                       ...
% Employment Changes in the South       July 2010- July 20113%                                                            ...
Regional Manufacturing Employment                      Change Aug 2010-Aug 20119.0%           8.6%7.0%5.0%    3.9%        ...
Regional Retail Employment                      Change Aug 2010-Aug 20116.0%               4.3%                           ...
% GDP Changes in the South         2009-20105%                                                                            ...
Regional GDP Change 20106.0%                                   5.2%5.0%                                              4.6% ...
Regional GDP Change 2007-20106.0%                               5.0%4.0%        1.5%                                      ...
Regional Income Change                   Change July 2010-July 2011         Non-farm private hourly earning inflation adju...
(NATIONAL)
Change In Housing        Value Last Year 0%-2%-4%-6% -5.9%                                            -5.0%          -6.4%...
Change In Housing            Value Last 5 Years10% 0%-10%              -9.6% -6.9%-20% -18.8%                             ...
Regional Housing Price Index Change             One Year 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%           -1.4%                                -3...
Regional Housing Price Index Change            Five Years 10.0%            6.1%  5.0%                               2.1%  ...
The United States Is In a Rapidly  Changing Economy and the       Impacts Are Real   What Is the New Normal? “The future i...
A Few Things To  Think About
1    The Future of        U.S.    Manufacturing
US Industry Shifts Over the Past    50 Years (Manufacturing)25,000         In thousands20,00015,00010,000 5,000    0    60...
% Manufacturing Job Losses               1990-200020%                               8%10%                                 ...
% Manufacturing Job Losses               2000-201020%10% 0%-10%-20%                                  -22%-30%             ...
Manufacturing Workforce of the Future
The Churn in the   Economy                   2
Business Employment                  Net Private Job Gains and Losses By Quarter1,000  500    0 -500-1,000-1,500-2,000-2,5...
Business Employment                          Dynamics (Churn)                                              Net Private Job...
Businesses Opening and Closing 1,000,000   800,000   644,122      670,058      668,395       626,400       552,600   600,0...
The Bar To Be Prosperous Is          Rising 3If We Don’t Start Expecting MoreWe Need To Start Expecting Less
Middle-Skills   Require more than a high school degree    but less than a BA degree   52% of employers said in 2011 manp...
Southern Jobs By Skill Level 2009                                                  High Skill    Middle Skill             ...
Southern Skills Mismatch                            20%   Low-Skill                               25%                     ...
4    The World Has    Changed…Has    the U.S. Role?
America’s Self-Image & Global         Image Is Changing   Tallest building…Dubai   Richest Man…Mexico   Largest Publicl...
The Rise of the RestWho and How We Compete
So What Next? Total Economy- Today the reality economy Minus increased savings Minus increased debt Minus bubbles in h...
So What Next?   Global slowdown will push a weak recover to the edge   In a national political year businesses usually h...
Despite Our Current Gloom, theUnited States Will Be One of theMajor Global Powers for a Long             Time
“Whether you believe you can do  a thing or not, you are right.”                   Henry Ford
Southern Growth Policies               Board   Since 1971,Bringing Together Governors, State Legislative    Leaders Busin...
Thank You       Questions?        Ted AbernathySouthern Growth Policies Board  tabernathy@southern.org
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)
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2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)

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The presentation from the Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS 2011 Commercial Market Forecast.

Includes presentations from:
Multi-Family | Todd Wigfield
Retail | Tim Metzler
Industrial | Mike White, SIOR, CCIM
Office | Peter Fennelly, SIOR, MCR
and Keynote speaker, Ted Abernathy

Published in: Real Estate
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  • Dear Charleston Trident Association, Everything in your presentation is also things that we have predicted. The name of our company is Sensible Lending Solutions. Sensible Lending Solutions specializes in loans that need global picture underwriting, which means we look at the whole picture. If a borrower wants to buy a property that is only 20% occupied we look at all of their assets and see if they have other income producing properties as well, and if it makes sense we will fund. We focus on a borrower's complete business and write loans with losses on tax returns. The SLS Alt 1 product is in between a conventional bank loan and hard money. Rates and terms are competitive. These are good loans for good people. We have partnered with many banks and are lending on their turn downs. Financing commercial properties is our main focus although we can finance 1-4 unit investment properties and have hard money in the 9% nation wide for fix and flips. We lend nation wide as well. If we can help you get more deals through we would love to give a formal presentation. Please contact Megan Krache at mkrache@sensiblelendingsolutions.com.
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Transcript of "2011 Commercial Market Forecast Presentation (full)"

  1. 1. 2011 Charleston Multifamily Forecast Supply is on the way!
  2. 2. National Multifamily Overview Vacancy Rates Steadily SIGNIFICANT DEMAND - Units DECREASING Supply Demand 2008 – 145,700 -11,424• 8.3% in 2008 2009 – 120,526 -41,708• 6.7% in 2011 2010 – 56,259 180,070• 5.7% by 2015 2011 – 31,794 112,826 Real Effective Rent Growth DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT (between the age of 20-34)• 8-10% in several submarkets Baby Boomers - 1986 – 63 million Echo Boomers - 2015 – 67 million
  3. 3. Charleston Multifamily Development Pipeline NORTH CHAS – 620 UNITS SUMMERVILLE – 300 UNITS DANIEL ISLAND – 300 UNITS MT. PLEASANT – 1,600 UNITSWEST ASHLEY– 300 UNITS DOWNTOWN– 272 UNITS
  4. 4. New Development on Upper King Street – Downtown Charleston 260-300 room 50,000 sf High-Tech Office Hotel, Retail, Restaurant(s) King St. Spring St. Hutson St. John St. Ann St. Holiday Inn – 115 rooms Proposed Hotel Renovation Meeting St. Midtown Mixed Use – 72 Units – Student 200 apartment units Housing 7,000 sf retailMap Restaurants Map Retail Map Lodging Map Other Legend Midtown Bar & Grill Piggly Wiggly (grocery) Hotel Site (full service planned) Charleston School of Law Chai’s Lounge and Tapas U-Haul Moving & Storage Holiday Inn Site (planned) Public Parking Garage DASH Station Basil 52.5 Record Store Embassy Suites (full service) Marion Square (park) (free shuttle) Closed for Business B-ZAR & Charleston Power Yoga Hampton Inn (limited service) Charleston Children’s Museum Fish Morris Sokol Furniture Library (full service planned) CARTA (central bus station) Halls Chophouse Hughe’s Lumber & Supply Francis Marion (full service) Charleston Visitor’s Center O-Ku Cupcake Holiday Inn (Marriot u/c) Charleston Historic Museum 39 Rue De Jean Gelato Store & French Bakery Federal Bldg. (full service conv.) American Theater Coast Bar & Grill Dwelling (interior design) Courtyards at 411 Meeting (apt) Music Farm
  5. 5. New Downtown Multifamily Development – 200 Units
  6. 6. New Development Downtown - Spring Elevation
  7. 7. 2011 Charleston Multifamily Forecast• Economics for both existing assets and new development projectsthat are the first to start will be strong• Occupancy will stay in the mid 90’s throughout the next cycle due tostrong job growth and people wanting to live in or around Charleston• Capital markets will determine how many deals actually get built incertain submarkets (ie. Mt. Pleasant)• Overall, deals in select submarkets will perform well
  8. 8. PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION...INTEGRATE INTERNET SALES...DOWNSIZE STORE PROTOTYPE...INVEST IN EXISTING STORES...SUSTAINABILITY IS GOOD BUSINESS...OCCUPY FAILED LOCATIONS WITH NEW FOOTPRINT…SIGNIFICANT RENT REDUCTIONS…REVITALIZE DOWNTOWN MARKETPLACE…NEW PLAYERS SEEKING KEY LOCATIONS…
  9. 9. APPAREL GROCER SPORTING GOODS & BOATINGELECTRONICS, OFFICE SUPPLY & HOME RESTAURANTS
  10. 10. RENT COMPRESSION FOR ANCHOR TENANTS…REDUCTION IN NUMBER OF STORES AND PROJECTS…FLIGHT TO QUALITY…DOWNSIZING CREATES OPPORTUNITY...SIX NEW DEVELOPMENTS...CHANGE IS CONSTANT...
  11. 11. JOB CREATION IS BRINGING MORE CONSUMERS...DEMOGRAPHIC MIGRATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...QUALITY OF LIFE BRINGS DIVERSE OPPORTUNITIES...WE CONTINUE TO ATTRACT HIGHER PAYING JOBS...RETAIL DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWING RESIDENTIAL GROWTH...RETAILERS WILL ENTER: REI & CRATE AND BARREL...
  12. 12. U.S. COMPANIES RACK UP BIG PROFITS DESPITE SLOWING ECONOMY...RECOVERY REMAINS FRAGILE...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS STIFLING EMPLOYMENT...MANUFACTURING RELOCATIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTHERN STATES...AEROSPACE AND AUTOMOTIVE EXPANSIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CHOOSE RIGHT-TO-WORK, LOW-TAXATION CONDITIONSBOEING TAKES OFF WITH 787 DREAMLINER FINAL ASSEMBLY...CHARLESTON PORT TRAFFIC CONTINUES TO GROW...VACANCY TIGHTENS... SPEC BUILDING REACHES A TIPPING POINT
  13. 13. INDUSTRIAL LEASING CONTINUES ABSORBING 1 BUILDING PER MONTHCLASS A SPACE IS VIRTUALLY GONE...INDUSTRIAL LAND SALES PRICE REACHES A NEW RECORD $ PER ACRE.MAJOR BOEING SUPPLIERS WILL ANNOUNCE NEW FACTORIES...SPEC INDUSTRIAL BUILDING WILL BEGIN ANEW...PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION WILL ATTRACT NEW USERS AND DEVELOPERS MORE RECORD-SETTING LAND SALES WILL CLOSE...JEDBURG AREA WILL LAND A NEW, MAJOR PROJECT
  14. 14. PROXIMITY TO BOEING...EXPANDING GLOBAL TRADE ATTRACTS NEW SHIPS AND MORE CONTAINERS...PRO-BUSINESS GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO FIND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT...OUR QUALITY-OF-LIFE GROWS IN REPUTATIONTHE NLRB WILL BE DEFEATED AND DISBANDED...BOEING WILL ANNOUNCE A SECOND AIRPLACE FOR CHARLESTONSHIPPING COMPANIES WILL PUBLICALLY ENDORSE PORT OF CHARLESTONTHE WIND TURBINE INDUSTRY WILL EMBRACE OUR REGIONOUR DEFENSE SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO GROW
  15. 15. The Big Picture(Looking For Perspective in a Changing World) Ted Abernathy
  16. 16. How is the Economy?
  17. 17. U.S. Chamber Small Business SurveyThe U.S. 8% Your BusinessEconomy 8% 84% 25% 61%The Local 14%Economy 19% 27% 54% Headed in Right Direction Off on Wrong Direction Not Sure Source: U.S. Chamber Small Business Survey, July 2011
  18. 18. The Last Decade Was….Not Good30% 27%25% 22% 20%20%15%10% Employment Growth 5% 0% -1%-5% 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
  19. 19. The Last Decade Was….Not Good45% 40% 40%40% 34%35%30%25%20% 17% Real GDP Growth15%10% 5% 0% 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
  20. 20. The Last Decade Was….Not Good70% 61%60% 47%50%40% 27%30%20% Real Household Wealth10% 0%-10% -3%-20% 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
  21. 21. And then The Recession Made Things Worse
  22. 22. Recession & Weak Recovery Impacts Soaring poverty rates (15.1% most since 1993) Black poverty rate 27% Male workers, median income falls to 1973 level 6% decline in births between 2008-2010 Most educated metros widened gap Government budget cuts reshaping competitiveness Corporate profits largest share of GDP since 1950
  23. 23. With Full Credit to TIP StrategiesA Picture isWorth aThousandwords
  24. 24. Today Is the Economic Glass ½ Full or ½ Empty ?“Get your facts first then you can distort them as much as you like.” 8 Ounces Mark Twain 6 Ounces 4 Ounces 2 Ounces 0 Ounces
  25. 25. “4 Ounces”
  26. 26. Globally
  27. 27. Unemployment Rates12% 10.8% 10.0%10% 9.1%8% 7.3% 6.1% 6.0% 6.1%6% 5.3% 4.3%4%2%0% US Japan China Canada Euro Area Austrialia India Brazil Russia Source: Economist Oct 8, 2011
  28. 28. Projected GDP Growth 2011 9.0%9% 7.9%7%5% 4.3% 3.6%3% 1.6% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6%1%-1% -0.4%-3%-5% US Japan China Canada Euro Area Austrialia India Brazil Russia Source: Economist Oct 8, 2011
  29. 29. Trade balance as % of GDP 5% 4.9% 4.0% 4% 3% 2.3% 2% 1% 0%-1% -0.5%-2%-3% -2.3% -2.5% -2.7%-4% -3.3% -3.2%-5% US Japan China Canada Euro Area Austrialia India Brazil Russia Source: Economist Oct 2011
  30. 30. U.S. Exports & Imports (Goods)$4,500,000 In $Millions$4,000,000$3,500,000$3,000,000$2,500,000$2,000,000$1,500,000$1,000,000 $500,000 $0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 Exports Imports Source: Census, World Almanac 2009 & U.S. BEA 2010
  31. 31. U.S. Exports 2009-2011 42% Increase$180,000$160,000$140,000$120,000$100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- 2009- 2009- 2009- 2010- 2010- 2010- 2011- 2011- Jan May Sept Jan May Sept Jan May Exports Source: BLS Sept 2011
  32. 32. Less than 1% of U.S. firms export and of those thatdo more than ½ export to only one country
  33. 33. Exports Per Capita (2009) $7,76480007000 $6,57960005000 $4,082 $3,6214000 $3,250 $3,443 $2,531 $2,6503000 $2,623 $2,428 $2,137 $2,323 $1,823 $1,9092000 $1,588 $1,1971000 0 Al A N T ab rka Flor Ge or Ke nt Loui Miss Miss ort Okla Sout Tenn exa Virg Wes USA am ns i da gia uc s i o h C ho h e s ini t V a as ky iana ssipp uri ar ma Car ssee a irg i oli oli ini na na a 2011 Competitiveness Redbook
  34. 34. Nationally
  35. 35. Employment Monthly Net Change 2000- Sept 2011600 In thousands 125,000 Jobs/Mo. To keep pace with growth400200 0-200 The best year in the-400 last decade averaged-600 208,000 additional jobs per month…12 years Jobs-800 2000 2008 Source: BLS Oct 2011
  36. 36. How Many New Jobs in the Last Year? September 2010 to August 2011 1,288,000 or 1% job growth in private sector Sectors gaining jobs; Manufacturing(+2%), Prof/Bus Services(+3%), Education & Health(+2%) -312,000 government jobs (-1.5% of Government jobs) Source: BLS September 2011
  37. 37. Job Growth- Last 12 Months 44 of 50 states had job growth Biggest growth- Texas +269,000, California +189,600, New York +106,600, Ohio +74,100 6 States that lost jobs Indiana, Georgia, Alabama, Kansas, Delaware, Nevada
  38. 38. Personal Savingas a % of Disposable Personal Income6% 5.5% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0%5%4%3%2%1%0% Dec-10 Jan Feb March April May June July Source: BLS Personal Income and Outlays, August 2011
  39. 39. Source: Economics and Statistics 1 -1 ay 10Estimates of Monthly Retail M 20 p. 10 Administration Sept 2011 Se 20 n. Ja -09 ay 08 and Food Services M 20 p. 08 Se 20 n. Ja -07 ay 06 M 20 p. 06 Se 20 n. Ja -05 ay 04 M 20 p. 04 Se 20 n. Ja -03 ay 02 M 20 p. 02 Se 20 n. Ja -01 In million $$ ay 00 M 20 p. 00 Se 20 n. Ja $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $-
  40. 40. US Firms in Forbes Global 2000800700 751600500 536400300200100 0 2004 2011 Source: Forbes May 9, 2011
  41. 41. US Firms in Forbes Global 2000 Growth in 2010100% Overall, last year was one of the most 90% profitable years for U.S. businesses in 69% history 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 18% 12% 20% 2% 10% 0% Profits Sales Value Employees Source: Forbes May 9, 2011
  42. 42. Stock Markets …?
  43. 43. Regionally
  44. 44. Brookings Metro Monitor2nd Quarter 2011Recession and Recovery
  45. 45. Employment Changes in the South July 2010- July 2011300 In thousands 269.525020015010050 28.1 34.0 8.3 27.9 26.3 17.3 12.8 4.4 8.3 3.6 5.5 1.6 1.5 0 -4.7 -24.9-50 AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: bizjournals.com Aug 2011
  46. 46. % Employment Changes in the South July 2010- July 20113% 2.6% 2.2%2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0%1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%0.1% 0.2% 0.2%0% -0.3% -0.6%-1% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: bizjournals.com Aug 2011
  47. 47. Regional Manufacturing Employment Change Aug 2010-Aug 20119.0% 8.6%7.0%5.0% 3.9% 2.9% 2.6%3.0% 2.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8%1.0% 0.4% 0.4%-1.0% -0.7%-3.0% -1.7% -3.6%-5.0% Ch Gr Co Ch Gr Ra At Na Ch Kn No Ric Bir Jac lan ar l een ar l een at t lum leig shv rfo o mi hm kso xvi ta an est ott ng lk vil sbo ille h on bi a nv lle oog ha on e le d ille ro m a Source: The Business Journals, Scott Thomas, September 29, 2011
  48. 48. Regional Retail Employment Change Aug 2010-Aug 20116.0% 4.3% 3.7%4.0% 2.6% 2.5%2.0% 1.2% 0.9%0.0% -0.3% -0.9%-2.0% -1.8%-1.8% -2.5%-4.0% -4.5%-6.0% -5.7% -6.3%-8.0% Ch Gr Co Ch Gr Ra At Na Ch Kn No Ric Bir Jac lan ar l een ar l een at t lum leig shv rfo o mi hm kso xvi ta an est ott ng lk vil sbo ille h on bi a nv lle oog ha on e le d ille ro m a Source: The Business Journals, Scott Thomas, September 29, 2011
  49. 49. % GDP Changes in the South 2009-20105% 4.0%4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 2.9%3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0%2% 1.4%1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0%1%0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: BEA Economic Recovery Widespread Across States in 2010, June 7, 2011
  50. 50. Regional GDP Change 20106.0% 5.2%5.0% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9%4.0% 3.2%3.0% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6%2.0% 1.3% 0.8%1.0% 0.4%0.0%-1.0% Ch Gr Co Ch Gr Ra At Na Ch Kn No Ric Bir Jac lan ar l een ar l een at t lum leig shv rfo o mi hm kso xvi ta an est ott ng lk vil sbo ille h on bi a nv lle oog ha on e le d ille ro m a Source: BEA September 13, 2011
  51. 51. Regional GDP Change 2007-20106.0% 5.0%4.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5%2.0% 0.8%0.0% -0.2% -0.6% -1.2% -1.1%-2.0% -1.7% -2.8%-4.0% -3.8% -4.3% -4.4%-6.0% Ch Gr Co Ch Gr Ra At Na Ch Kn No Ric Bir Jac lan ar l een ar l een at t lum leig shv rfo o mi hm kso xvi ta an est ott ng lk vil sbo ille h on bi a nv lle oog ha on e le d ille ro m a Source: BEA September 13, 2011
  52. 52. Regional Income Change Change July 2010-July 2011 Non-farm private hourly earning inflation adjusted 2.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% -0.1% -0.4%-2.0% -1.7% -1.8%-4.0% -3.2% -3.4%-3.1% -4.1% -4.9%-6.0% -5.9%-5.6%-8.0% -8.4%-10.0% Ch Gr Co Ch Gr Ra At Na Ch Kn No Ric Bir Jac lan ar l een ar l een at t lum leig shv rfo o mi hm kso xvi ta an est ott ng lk vil sbo ille h on bi a nv lle oog ha on e le d ille ro m a Source: Garner Economics, Tom Tveidt, September 2011
  53. 53. (NATIONAL)
  54. 54. Change In Housing Value Last Year 0%-2%-4%-6% -5.9% -5.0% -6.4% -6.6%-8% -8.1% -8.8%-10%-12%-14% -13.6% -13.4%-16% -14.9% Un Sou Nor G Vir Ari Cal Flo Nev i ted th C th C eorgi gin ia zon i for rid a ada Sta aro aro a a nia te s l ina l ina Source: FHFA Price Index, period ending 03/2011
  55. 55. Change In Housing Value Last 5 Years10% 0%-10% -9.6% -6.9%-20% -18.8% -14.6%-30% -24.5%-40% -46.0%-45.5%-50% -49.5%-60% -58.1%-70% Un SC Nor Geo Vir Ari Cal Flo i ted th C rgia gin zon i for rid Nevad Sta aro ia a nia a a te s l ina Source: FHFA Price Index, period ending 03/2011
  56. 56. Regional Housing Price Index Change One Year 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -1.4% -3.1% -3.1% -2.7% -2.5% -4.0% -3.6% -5.0% -4.9% -4.7% -6.0% -5.9% -5.4% -5.8% -6.0% -8.0% -9.0%-10.0% -9.2%-12.0% US Ch Gr Co Ch Gr Ra At Na Ch Kn No Ric Bir Jac lan A ar l een ar l een at t lum leig shv rfo oxv mi hm kso ta an est ott ng lk vil sbo ille h on ille bi a nv oog ha on e le d ille ro m a Source: Federal Finance Agency, 2nd Quarter 2011
  57. 57. Regional Housing Price Index Change Five Years 10.0% 6.1% 5.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% -0.4% -1.3% -1.8% -5.0% -2.6% -5.5%-10.0% -11.5% -11.9%-15.0% -14.4%-20.0% -18.8% -18.4%-25.0%-30.0% -30.8%-35.0% US Ch Gr Co Ch Gr Ra At Na Ch Kn No Ric Bir Jac lan A ar l een ar l een at t lum leig shv rfo oxv mi hm kso ta an est ott ng lk vil sbo ille h on ille bi a nv oog ha on e le d ille ro m a Source: Federal Finance Agency, 2nd Quarter 2011
  58. 58. The United States Is In a Rapidly Changing Economy and the Impacts Are Real What Is the New Normal? “The future is not some place we are going to, but one we are creating.” John Schaar
  59. 59. A Few Things To Think About
  60. 60. 1 The Future of U.S. Manufacturing
  61. 61. US Industry Shifts Over the Past 50 Years (Manufacturing)25,000 In thousands20,00015,00010,000 5,000 0 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Manufcturing Source: BLS April, 2011
  62. 62. % Manufacturing Job Losses 1990-200020% 8%10% 5% 0% -3% -4% -6% -6%-10% -9% -10%-12% -13% -12% -16% -17% -15%-13%-20%-30%-40%-50% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN VA WV Source: VEDP Data Base Aug 2011
  63. 63. % Manufacturing Job Losses 2000-201020%10% 0%-10%-20% -22%-30% -31% -33% -33% -33% -35% -33% -34% -33%-40% -37% -35% -39% -38% -39% -43%-50% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN VA WV Source: VEDP Data Base Aug 2011
  64. 64. Manufacturing Workforce of the Future
  65. 65. The Churn in the Economy 2
  66. 66. Business Employment Net Private Job Gains and Losses By Quarter1,000 500 0 -500-1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500-3,000 2000-1 2000-3 2001-1 2001-3 2002-1 2002-3 2003-1 2003-3 2004-1 2004-3 2005-1 2005-3 2006-1 2006-3 2007-1 2007-3 2008-1 2008-3 2009-1 2009-3 2010-1 2010-3 Source: BLS Business Employment Dynamics, August 2011
  67. 67. Business Employment Dynamics (Churn) Net Private Job Gains and Losses In millions 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000-10,000 2000-1 2000-3 2001-1 2001-3 2002-1 2002-3 2003-1 2003-3 2004-1 2004-3 2005-1 2005-3 2006-1 2006-3 2007-1 2007-3 2008-1 2008-3 2009-1 2009-3 2010-1 2010-3 Source: BLS Business Employment Dynamics, August 2011
  68. 68. Businesses Opening and Closing 1,000,000 800,000 644,122 670,058 668,395 626,400 552,600 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 -200,000 -400,000 -600,000 -800,000 -604,201 -619,695 -620,732 -707,446 -721,737-1,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Births Closures/Bankruptcies Source: US Small Business Administration Aug 2011
  69. 69. The Bar To Be Prosperous Is Rising 3If We Don’t Start Expecting MoreWe Need To Start Expecting Less
  70. 70. Middle-Skills Require more than a high school degree but less than a BA degree 52% of employers said in 2011 manpower survey that they were struggling to fill positions, an all-time high
  71. 71. Southern Jobs By Skill Level 2009 High Skill Middle Skill 29% 51% Low Skill 20% High Skill Low Skill Middle Skill Source: Middle skill jobs in the American South’s Economy, National Skills Coalition, August 2011
  72. 72. Southern Skills Mismatch 20% Low-Skill 25% 51% JobsMiddle Skills 43% Workers 29% High Skills 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Source: Middle skill jobs in the American South’s Economy, National Skills Coalition, August 2011
  73. 73. 4 The World Has Changed…Has the U.S. Role?
  74. 74. America’s Self-Image & Global Image Is Changing Tallest building…Dubai Richest Man…Mexico Largest Publicly Traded Company…China Producer of the Most Movies….India Biggest Gambling Town…Macao Largest Ferris Wheel…Singapore Only 1 of 10 Largest Shopping Malls
  75. 75. The Rise of the RestWho and How We Compete
  76. 76. So What Next? Total Economy- Today the reality economy Minus increased savings Minus increased debt Minus bubbles in housing wealth and stock market wealth With slowing growth in new income and new people Equals slow growth and new realities
  77. 77. So What Next? Global slowdown will push a weak recover to the edge In a national political year businesses usually hold their cards Housing is close to bottom but “underwater” losses will drag it for several more years…probably slightly increasing sales but values will continue to slide Job growth will be slow…for a while Real estate will face changing business models Very Uneven- Regions that succeed will focus on strengths, be globally aware and engaged, and will understand the role of talent
  78. 78. Despite Our Current Gloom, theUnited States Will Be One of theMajor Global Powers for a Long Time
  79. 79. “Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.” Henry Ford
  80. 80. Southern Growth Policies Board Since 1971,Bringing Together Governors, State Legislative Leaders Business Leaders, Higher Education Leaders, and Citizens Help communities understand the changing context of competitiveness Follow us on Twitter or LinkedIn or join as an associate member www.southern.orgPublic policy is about making choices, Southern Growth informs choice
  81. 81. Thank You Questions? Ted AbernathySouthern Growth Policies Board tabernathy@southern.org
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