Richard kock food_systems_forward_thinking


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From the Food Security Forum 2014: Good food, good health: delivering the benefits of food
security in Australia and beyond - 17 March 2014

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Richard kock food_systems_forward_thinking

  1. 1. Food systems: evolution, historical and current impacts, disease emergence - forward thinking Food Security Forum 2014: Good food, good health: delivering the benefits of food security in Australia and beyond University of Sydney 17th March Richard Kock Professor Wildlife Health & Emerging Diseases Dept. Pathology & Pathobiology
  2. 2. Summary of presentation Agricultural development pathways & food systems Agricultural impact on human, animal & ecosystems health including disease emergence risks. Science & society’s shift from linear to systems thinking - the One Health approach. Need for improved metrics & shift in focus on agricultural development
  3. 3. Summary • Historical background to animal domestication • Intensification of agricultural systems and its influence on pathogen & disease emergence • Evolution of biosecurity concept in response to economic impacts of disease in industrialised livestock systems • Conceptual model showing balance between food security and ecosystem disservices • Achieving a better balance • Conclusions
  4. 4. World Population 1750 to 1999 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 Asia Africa Europe Latin America and Caribbean Northern America Oceania Source: United Nations cited on Medicines Agriculture Technology Genes
  5. 5. + 1 BILLION EVERY DECADE Demographic Transition~ 2050?
  6. 6. Biological success story over a mere 250 years or is it? Most of the impact on environment has occurred in the last 50 years as human & domestic animal population expanded exponentially.. Time to count the cost?
  7. 7. 1975 2001
  8. 8. 1975 2003
  9. 9. 75% ALL AGRICULTURAL LAND IS FOR FEED CROP AND LIVESTOCK Foley 2005 Food and environment 115% increase in production on agricultural land with only 8% increase in land conversion 24% of vegetated land has undergone soil degradation 70% “Blue water” consumed by agriculture - used to be 90% The Future of Food and Farming (2011) Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London.
  10. 10. ‘Golden years’ of wild food receding, although 1-2 billion still depend on it
  11. 11. Wild food’s replacement
  12. 12. Growth in Aquaculture (Duarte et al 2009)
  13. 13. Commoditisation of natural resources..
  14. 14. Humanity has shifted from moving to food ..
  15. 15. Karesh et al 2007 To food moving to humanity
  16. 16. Unintended consequences of the evolution of human food systems… Daniel Lieberman
  17. 17. 5 top risks of premature mortality: Obesity Inactivity Smoking High Blood Glucose High Blood Pressure Cheap Food! Sugar Sat Fats Lack of Exercise
  18. 18. J.Rushton
  19. 19. Interactions between food systems and other spheres UCL SDG Working Group 2014
  20. 20. Global trends in Mortality 1990-2020 Category A communicable maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders Category B non-communicable disease Category C injury Millionsofpeople Murray and Lopez 1997
  21. 21. ?
  22. 22. WHO and Nat Museum Medicine Washington
  23. 23. Principle macro-drivers of disease emergence Broad changes in ecology are now associated with pathogen emergence but little research has been completed on the mechanisms. This is a vital area for future research (Jones et al 2013). The main drivers are anthropogenic: development & landscape change, globalisation, intensification & Industrialisation of the food system
  24. 24. Urbanisation and Disease More than 25% of U.S. land development has been in just the last 15 years EIDs in urban settings: leptospirosis, plague, food born disease, dengue fever, SARS, zoonotic avian influenzas,.. …
  25. 25. Development dramatically altering the landscape • Destruction of habitats for roads, settlement, farming & industry (Ewing et al 2010 Global Footprint Network) • Yellow Fever • Malaria • Hendra • Nipah • Ebola • HIV • Leishmania • Fasciola
  26. 26. • Loss of heterogeneity in the landscape (new but fewer niches) - biodiversity decline & change in community composition (Roche & Guegan 2011; Clay et al 2009; Randolph &Dobson 2012). • More intense interface – opportunity for spread & co- evolution of parasites with humans, domestic animals & few wildlife species (Despommier et al 2006; Lloyd-Smith et al 2009). • Ecological resilience theory – tipping points & thresholds are being reached e.g. climate system (Revolution 2009) Changing landscape - new niches, drivers.
  27. 27. Farming systems: Numbers and density H5N1 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 DuckMeatProduction (Tons) China Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Thailand and Vietnam • In 2007, over 21 billion food animals were produced for over 6 billion people • By 2020 the demand for animal protein up by 50% mainly in developing countries requiring over 30 billion animals 0 5 10 15 20 25 1900 1960 2000 2050 Human (billion) Cattle Buffalo Small livestock Pigs Poultry H7N9)
  28. 28. Intensification Homogenisation Loss of landscape heterogeneity Devaluation of animal & human life Tompkins et al 2011
  29. 29. Poverty and dependency
  30. 30. •Japanese Encephalitis virus persistence linked to amplification in pig units (Erlanger et al., 2009), •Nipah (Daszak et al., 2006) virus emergence linked to amplification in pig industry in Malaysia (Graham et al., 2008, Barrette et al 2009) , •Last mammalian pandemic influenza virus HIN1 (Irvine & Brown 2009) emergence from swine industry in Mexico, H5N1 H7N9 from intenstive poultry systems in South East Asia •Campylobacteriosis, brucellosis, tuberculosis associated with intensification of livestock systems •Hepatitis E linked to swine products (Garbuglia et al., 2013, Aggarwal & Naik, 2009 ). •Human handling of pigs leads to increased Ecoli excretion (Callaway et al., 2006)
  31. 31. Pathogen factory.. Industrial poultry? RISK Newcastles HPAI Mareks Salmonella Campylobacter New resistant & virulent strains (HPAI, Marek’s, ND (Dugan et al 2008, Maclea et al 2007 Miller et al., 2010) Amplification of pathogen in aberrant host (HPAI) Suarez 2000, Ito et al 2001, Souris et al 2010 Vaccines, antimicrobials, pesticides Biocontaminants – salmonella, Campylobacter (Hermans et al 2011 , Altekreuse et al., 1997)
  32. 32. Investment in Infectious Diseases Investment in Non Communicable Disease
  33. 33. Global trends in Mortality 1990-2020 Category A communicable maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders Category B non-communicable disease Category C injury Millionsofpeople Murray and Lopez 1997
  34. 34. Attention shift to structural One Health to reduce disease risks..
  35. 35. Structural crisis, fundamental unsustainability, & imbalances in current natural & social global systems producing conditions for emergence of diseases Increasing pressures within & between human environments, natural ecosystems & agricultures, selecting for specific diseases Disease spreading among animals and humans Crisis Response Wallace et al in press 2014
  36. 36. Why Ecosystems Health? Ecological processes are buffering against disease Ecosystem services Clean air and water Climate buffer Natural waste processing (decomposers) Pathogen dilution (community, biodiversity effects) Pathogen buffering Dietary diversity, nutrition Immunocompetence Genetic Health
  37. 37. Why be concerned about circuits of capital and disease emergence Production cycles: • Degrade ecological resilience. • Categorise humans & animals into markets & commodities. • Globalise transport of goods people livestock & pathogens. Epidemiological interventions: • Denaturise, land grab, deforest, fence. • Select for highly capitalised biosecure agriculture - industrial intensified genetic monocultures that in themselves give rise to new pathogens & their globalisation. • Use of antimicrobials essential to intensive food systems, leading to rapid, amplifying antimicrobial resistance developing & spreading.
  38. 38. AHI: animal health institute; UCS: union of concerned scientists Rise in antimicrobial resistance
  39. 39. How will we measure sustainable agriculture and progress in food safety & security? Currently: • Poor metrics generally in MDG especially on poverty but also on food insecurity – too much emphasis on calories & subsidised grain industries – grain dumping. • Improving metrics on nutrition – better to use stunting and wasting rather than traditionally weight – better indicators of acute and chronic under-nutrition. • No real targets in agriculture – market led…e.g. no agriculture food system MDGs met. • Little attention to wild or natural food sources other than governance & concerns over sustainability • Little attention to emerging disease risks.
  40. 40. Suggested changes to health/food systems metrics o Integrate food security & nutrition/health issues. o Go beyond metrics on food availability, access & utilisation to include stability measures & disease risk. o Assess social consequences of agribusiness & capitalised food systems (e.g. marginalisation of small holders & rural in favour of urban communities). o Include poor nutrition & over-nutrition measures.
  41. 41. Key Changes Needed in Health, Agricultural and Food Systems Thinking Better governance, equity, sovereignty, infrastructure, finance, systems change, new values, ideas, Education in general & specifically to improve health (self- help), agriculture practice & reduce consumption & waste Plan agriculture for a reducing population & absence of fossil fuels Climate Change Water issues Biodiversity ecosystems
  42. 42. Thanks to: Prof Robyn Alders FVM & the Food Forum & Political Ecology Grouping at University of Sydney Prof. Jonathan Rushton & Dr Barbara Haesler – LIDC/LCIRAH & Sustainable Food Systems thematic research group RVC Dr Jeff Waage – LIDC and Sustainable Development thematic research group UCL Prof Dirk Pfeiffer Ecosystems Health Research Group RVC Dr Rob Wallace Institute of Global Studies University of Minnesota, & Structural One Health Research Grouping Acknowledgements Lecture Dedicated to Prof Declan McKeever who passed away February 2014 - former Head of the RVC Pathology Department