2014 presentation to MPICT conference
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2014 presentation to MPICT conference

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Looking at technology trends and business trends and their impact on personnel

Looking at technology trends and business trends and their impact on personnel

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  • Today I’d like to discusssome of the trends taking place in business and technology and how these shifts will influence value going forward and the skills and approaches needed to take advantage of these changes.Great deal to cover so I’ll just get started.Ask questions at any time.
  • First I’d like to address the question: Why change?There are numerous drivers of change. This slide shows some of the primary ones I use to assess a new innovation, because these seem to be drivers that address some of the basic human needs that push forward progress and generate greater value. Information technology addresses all these drivers directly for example:When you think about mobility, it allows people to have greater flexibility to access information, gain visibility and be more engaged, whether it is in their personal lives or their business. In this presentation, I’d like to talk about some of the business and technology changes underway from an example-based perspective.
  • For technology to be adopted the business need must exist, as well as the technology capability. Without both, ideas make form but innovation (the application of an idea) will not happen.Megatrends are industry independent trends that are going to force organizations to change. That’s why it can be a useful foundation for talking about organizational planning.These megatrendscan be divided into categories to think about (the ones shown here happen to come from Futurist magazine) and for each of these categories organizations need to think about the likely implications to their business and the view of the future. Implications: Longer life -> chronic illness Bandwidth is distance & Life-long learning-> Distance learning.Every organization needs to develop its own understanding of megatrends and their implications.
  • To go along with these megatrends, there are also the trends for technology advancement within the IT industry itself.From an technology perspective we are moving into a world of abundance in many areas.We have sensors collecting data from everywhere.Computing factories allowing for virtually unlimited computing to be applied to business problems.We have ever increasing capabilities to transport data between formats as well as locations. People are using that to collaborate wherever and whenever they need to.There is an abundance of creativity around applications (I’ve got an app for that on the iphone) is shifting how organizations are thinking about software resources.But it is the play scarcity and abundance that is important.A scarcity that remains is the human attention span.How we use the resources that are abundant to maximize the value from the resources that are scarce is key to the future of IT and business value generation.
  • Last year an article by Andrew McAfee talked about the race against the machine. One of the foundational elements of that work was based on the abundance of analytics and advances in pattern recognition that is allowing many knowledge worker activities to be automated. I would rather think of this as a race with machines, where people will be freed up to work on higher-value activities leaving normal activities to be performed by automation – essentially a model of human augmented automation, instead of the way we normally think about automation.This separation of ‘normal’ from the ‘unique’ will have quite a significant impact on the work environment. Many people spend a significant amount of their time messing around in normal. Now their focus should shift to turning anomalies into opportunities. I did a blog post a while back stating that most of middle management functions can be automated, since much of it is tracking behaviors. These skilled resources should free up to perform more challenging functions that people do best.
  • There is a great deal of change in our future but a much of it is actually predictable. There are a number of trends that are defined by laws that have held up for years, like Moore’s law and Edholm’s law… We can use these to extrapolate out what the world will be like in the future, and think about what that may mean to an industry or business. For example… It should be possible to store the genomic information of every person on earth in about $140M worth of storage by 2017 and by 2020 it would be only $25M. It may be even lower if disruptive technologies can be identified. It is unlikely that you’ll be able to get all that information though, but let’s say you can reliably get 1% (a goal that a company called 23andMe was focused on). That means that for $250K (something in the range of most businesses) you can fundamentally change how healthcare is delivered. Most healthcare today is based on a statistical approach – most people are best treated this way.Instead we could move to a more personalized approach based on how people with a genetic makeup like you responded to treatment – reducing side effects and increasing treatment effectiveness. Each treatment could increase the effectiveness of future care.
  • One thing we talk about in HP is using this abundance perspective to shift to a new style of business and IT.Most traditional systems were focused on systems of record – those back office systems that tracked the transactions and important meta-data of the business ecosystems. Recently there has been a shift to focus more on systems of engagement. How to effectively present information to people (within the context where they are currently working) to enable them to make better decisions. This also brings in techniques like gamification and user interface design on mobile devices vs. traditional screens.I’d like to add to that the concept of systems of action. Since not all systems actually need engagement and can be automated, for those we need to understand how and where action can be taken to take latency out of the environment and maximize the value from the scarce human resource.
  • This may seem like quite a bit of change but in reality much of it is already happening in pockets.William Gibson (science fiction author) – the future is already here, it is just not evenly distributed.I’d like to address the trends from 5 business based perspectives. We’ll go into this in more detail<CLICK TO NEXT SLIDE>
  • The first major trend is explosion at the edge, mobile is part of this larger trend of having a significant increase in the amount of information flowing into and out of organizations.There are also new sources of information based on new capabilities for RFID, NFC, and new ways to gather store and manage the flow of information across the edge of the enterprise.<CLICK TO NEXT SLIDE>
  • One of the areas generally discussed when mentioning the new style of IT is systems of record -- the traditional back office systems that store the information to keep businesses running. And a relatively new view called systems of engagement that are focused on how IT enables the enterprise to interact with users in new ways. Mobile techniques play a significant role, since those are the computers we have with us all the time. The mobile world is more than just phones – that’s why I typically talk about it from the perspective of the Edge of the enterprise, but it may be the edge of the person, a company, a city or state.. We’re seeing more computers embedded in devices all the time. This is happening because Moore’s law is lowering the cost of transistors. We’re moving from computers as devices to computers in devices.Sensors are being placed all over our environment in RFID or near field communications chips. That was just the tip of the iceberg though. One of the low hanging fruit for nano-technology is the creation of sensors that can identify specific chemical compounds. We can also determine temperature, light, humidity and a variety of other measure that are critical to the life of products. If you’re going to put something like RFID that measures location and identity, you’ll be adding a number of other sensor elements that can provide the context of what is going on in the environment <CLICK>Sensors that measure processes like SmartSpuds
  • People do not actually make decisions based on data. They make decisions off the context the data describes. Many times it is the information about what data came in at the same time or what data was consumed by where that is the most interesting. This meta data adds significantly to the amount of data available. With the internet of things and the corresponding meta data, the amount of information available boggles the mind and it will continue to grow going forward. Fortunately, our ability to store it and derive value from it continues to increase at a similar rate.Sources:IDC Predictions 2012: Competing for 2020, Document 231720, December 2011, Frank Genshttp://www.go-gulf.com/60scs_v2.jpg
  • Once you begin to use all that sensor information to understand the business and its process, you can take latency out of the systems by automating normal, moving to an approach based on Cause and Effect not the latency rich sense and respond. We can use all the data and computational power to define rules and make models of how we think things should work. Once we have the models working, we’ll change parameters and understand the implications. If the real world does not match the model, we’ll adjust the model. Along the way we’ll develop deeper understanding of what’s actually going on. Shown in the lower part of the screen is a situation analysis system that HP created for a municipality that can not only show the leadership where the emergency response vehicles are but it also has a rules engine that can alert various roles based on a particular situation – no matter where they are in the world. For example: if 4 police cars are within 100 feet of each other (and at a well defined meeting point) send an alert, since that shouldn’t happen unless there is something worth noting going on. <CLICK>
  • We have a saying that our goal is to deliver the right 6:The right information, in the right place, to the right person, at the right time, in the right format, driving the right result. And if we don’t do that last one, the rest of it doesn’t really matter.This requires and end-to-end perspective of the goals to be accomplished and people who are willing to work on more than just their little corner of the enterprise and work on holistic problems with a goal on reducing the time to value.
  • Business are definitely under the same pressures internally as the rest of the market with consumers. At the heart of value creation today is resolving some of the conflicting expectations of today.People want things to be simple and yet have deep understanding | Secure and yet Collaborative| Mobile and yet powerful | Low cost and high quality | Standard and yet customizedWe are living in a world of contradictions but with contradictions comes opportunity and a need for innovation. It’s an And not Or world we’re talking about.This expectation of personalization brings together the concept of systems of action and systems of engagement to improve the capabilities available. We have all seen these changes in our phones and how we act with the internet. For the new generation of workers, it is becoming an expectation. Gamification is area closely related to personalization. To me gamification is a metrics-based, goal-oriented approach to behavior modification. IT systems have much of the context related information to understand what is going on and to make adjustments during the decision making process, with mobility a well designed solution can actually inject that information into the decision making process, at the time a decision is being formed. That is why this concept is so powerful.<CLICK>
  • Bring your own Device is a great example of personalization as well. But it is not really about devices, it is about access to corporate information on devices. It is more about HR, Policy and of course security than it is about devices. That is one thing you need to keep in mind when thinking about BYOD. It is probably better described as bring your own service. It is about the experience not about any particular hardware device.
  • With all the data, models and computing capabilities I mentioned, the interactions of the future can generate a whole new level of understanding. Of the process, the systems as well as the people - Derived network creation based on behavior is happening. We’re all familiar with the situation on Amazon.com where they tell us that “people who bought this book, bought these other books”. Negative response timeSentiment analysis - HP labs has also done some work to predict movie revenues based on sentiments expressed by those who attend early screenings of movies. The results were significantly more accurate than the experts.At HP Discover in 2012 a system was demonstrated called Compass, that demonstrates how to address a problem common to all multinational organization – finding expertise. It looks at the kind of documents you check in or check out of SharePoint or include in email systems and performs context recognition. It also derives who is sending mail to whom… There are three ways to identify expertise:Self selectionBased on the documents you produceBased on where people actually go to get expertise. It pulls all three of these together into a common perspective of expertise within an enterprise.
  • As I mentioned earlier the future is about a race with the machine to address the issues that are of real importance. With all the data coming in, it is not a choice but a necessity.Many organizations are actually doing this within the computing environment (with cloud techniques). We’ll just take similar techniques and expand them to the rest of the business processes.
  • There are definite patterns on how organizations shift to become more flexible and our services need to adjust and lead these trends.
  • Another big shift for organizations in the future relates to sustainability. A focus on movingbits not atoms.I put together a 3D printer last year and although that space is not ready for prime time, it did allow me to create a number of components for people that were no longer in production or prohibitively expensive to buy. The same thing with travel. I could have done this presentation remotely and almost all organizations are using these techniques like this because sustainability is becoming and expectation of the marketplace.As part of this a holistic approach is needed looking for ways to make the entire environment smarter and more efficiently use the resources needed to generate value.
  • One thing is certain Change as a disruption of the status quo -> continuousThese will have personnel implications as wellHouse -> Motor coachNew Skills, New workers, New perspectives. - <CLICK>

Transcript

  • 1. MegaTrends and the World of 2020 At the intersection of business and technical trends Charlie Bess, P .E. HP Fellow, Application Business Services Americas Chief Technologist © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 2. Drivers of Change © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 3. Security „ Hacking is free Religion „ Expanding Impact Business Health „ New competitors „ Coopition everywhere „ Need to Share Government & Society Transportation „ Flattening world „ Pockets of instability Demographics „ Older consumer „ Urbanization Economy „ The “new normal” • The Joule as currency „ Personalized Healthcare „ Longer, Healthier life* „ Chronic is normal Work „ Human augmented automation „ Everyone is a contractor „ Diverse workforce „ Security challenged „ Move bits not atoms „ Tight economics Science & Technology • Bandwidth is distance „ Attention engineering „ Context is king Environment „ Measurement driven Education „ Better educated* „ Distance learning Food & Agriculture „ Water constrained • Robotics * Not all the world may participate © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 4. Technical Enablers A conflict between abundance and scarcity • Mobile devices • Sensors (audio, video, GPS) • Derived data New Value Unlimited Data • Open Source • SaaS • Licensed SW Unlimited Applications Unlimited Computing • Cloud • Mobile • Distributed Unlimited Connection Limited Attention • 4G, 5G • Multi-Gigabit networks • Social networks © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. • Analytics • Automation • Security
  • 5. Scarcity Will Drive New Work Models Growth in Developing World, Demand for Scarce Resources, Skill Shortages • • • • • • • • Work is increasingly a collaborative experience not a place New careers enabled by technology Virtual companies – an aggregation of contracted services Multiple jobs / careers not one job for life Constant learning - continual education and re-training Migration to meet work demands Changing role of IT Department Automation of normal © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 6. Extrapolated World of 2020 Healthcare 7.675 billion people globally Digital Natives Significant portion of the workforce Cost of human DNA Sequencing <$100 Economics Technologically the world will be very different Population China likely to overtake US GDP Global Sensor Market $25 Billion Internet Information Technology 9.6 Billion mobile subscribers 1.1 Billion broadband subscribers >30 billion Nodes (Internet of things) >300 Exabytes per month of traffic Cyber Security Market : >$120 Billion System memory (DRAM) = 582MB/$ Transistor per $ (average) = 4 Billion Data: 44 time increase over 2009 Magnetic Storage = 2 Terabytes per $ © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. Software: Average car will contain 10 Billion lines of code
  • 7. New Style of Business (and IT) Cloud Social Media Systems of Engagement New Style of IT Systems of Action Systems of Record Client / Server © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. Devices
  • 8. Major Trends Shifting The View of the Future Enterprise 3.0 Personalization Sustainability Modeling & Simulation Explosion at the Edge © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 9. Explosion at the Edge © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 10. Explosion at the Edge Why is this happening? • Sensing Source: John A. Rogers Source: John A. Rogers Source: Sensor Wireless © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 11. Information from the Internet of Things: More data than we can imagine Today data scientist use Yottabytes to describe how much government data the NSA or FBI have on people. In the near 27 10 Brontobyte This will be our digital universe tomorrow… Yottabyte 10 1 EB of data is created on the internet each day. The proposed Square Kilometer Array telescope will generated an EB of data per day Terabyte 10 Zettabyte 18 1.3 ZB of network traffic by 2016 1015 12 10 109 500TB of new data per day 6 10 are ingested in Facebook databases Megabyte © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. 10 21 24 10 This is our digital universe today future, Brontobyte will be = 250 trillion of DVDs the measurement to describe the type of sensor data that will be generated from the Internet of Exabyte Things 30 Geopbyte Petabyte The CERN Large Hadron Collider generates 1PB per second Gigabyte
  • 12. Modeling, Simulation & Automation Why is this happening? • Need for Speed • Speed of Action • Speed of Change • Sense & Respond to Cause & Effect © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 13. Translation of data into value An intelligent end-to-end approach delivers the right information to the right person at the right time Executive Dashboards Enterprise Search Customer Interaction Predictive Analytics Web Engagement Intelligent End-to-end Approach Variety Social Media Velocity Volume Video Audio Email MGD Transactional CRM (Sales) Web Texts Transactional Data Word, Excel Operational ERP Supply Chain (Procurement) © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. (Ops) Clickstream Data Logs Images Strategic HR Machine Generated Data
  • 14. Personalization Why is this happening? • The New Consumers Immediate – no tolerance for latency Simple – a requirement for acceptance Quality expected– No failures tolerated Enterprise (trans-Enterprise) integration Personalized – necessary & situational Secure/Private – you secure, I control Participative – be part of the change Mobile – no gaps allowed © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 15. BYOD is about more than devices It’s about the experience © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 16. Enterprise 3.0 Why is this happening? • Deeper Understanding of the Power of the Web © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 17. You’ll need autonomous agents that manage by exception Today’s cloud techniques will be applied to the rest of the business Today, IT Ops staff can receive dozens of alerts ‟ ranging from critical to system spam Alerts are collected & analyzed real-time changes are made optimizing reliability and the use of resources like energy and bandwidth The environment isolates critical alerts it can’t handle and sends them to individuals who can act on them © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. Less critical anomalies are batched up and sent to only those who can affect changes
  • 18. Enterprise 3.0 Enterprise 1.0 Enterprise 2.0 Enterprise 3.0 Hierarchy Flat Networked - self assembling Friction Smooth Modeled and simulated Bureaucracy Agility Predictive, self optimizing Rigid Flexible Self-organizing Source of change IT-driven technology/Lack of user control User-driven technology Need driven technology Driver for change Top down Bottom up Holistic Centralized Distributed Context-enabled Teams are in one building/one time zone Teams are global Services collaborating across borders Silos and boundaries Fuzzy boundaries, open borders Dynamic boundaries Need to know Transparency Need to share Information systems are structured and dictated Information systems are emergent Knowledge systems Taxonomies Folksonomies Semantics Scheduled On demand Proactive and fit to purpose Interfaces Complex Simpler Dynamically configured Standards Closed/proprietary Open Negotiated automatically Long time-to-market cycles Short time-to-market cycles Mass customization Org Structure Operational Flow Structure Governance Organizational theory Collaboration Owners Information attitude Information structure Information organization Information flow Product cycles © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 19. Sustainability • • • • Why is this happening? Expectation Regulation Constraining Corporate Responsibility © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 20. Futurists tend to describe change like this... © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 21. However, Change Feels More Like This… You can plan for the future you want instead of the one you’ll end up with. © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 22. Final Thoughts The World of Tomorrow will be characterized by Many factors that enable change are predictable, so plan to take advantage of them. Scarcity affects value – Determine how what is abundant can maximize the value of what is scarce The rate of change and transformation is increasing. We need to prepare people to assimilate and take advantage of change. The increasing digitization of society, commerce, personal and professional lives is not a replacement for today’s processes and systems, but adds capabilities Social influence is beyond the control of any individual ecosystem but will impact all organizations. © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  • 23. Charlie Bess +1 469 767-2311 charlie.bess@hp.com Blog: www.hp.com/go/tnbt Twitter: @cebess 2014 President of the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP.org) © Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.