Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
What's coming, and are you ready for it?
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

What's coming, and are you ready for it?

1,364

Published on

Richard Addy and Luba Kassova, Addy-Kassova Audience Strategy …

Richard Addy and Luba Kassova, Addy-Kassova Audience Strategy
Brand development conference
www.charitycomms.org.uk/events

Published in: Health & Medicine, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,364
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
15
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Are you prepared for the deep sociodemographic, technological, economic, and political trends in the next 5-10 years? Charity Comms Brand Conference Keynote Presentation Luba Kassova, Richard Addy 24 October 2013 1  
  • 2. Sofia, Bulgaria in 1997 - where Luba lived 1000% Inflation Bulgaria 1.7% Inflation UK Currency collapsed – lives were destroyed 2  
  • 3. 16 years later, who would have predicted… Lowest EU Inflation Bulgaria Highest EU Inflation UK Bulgaria has the lowest EU inflation 3  
  • 4. The Bulgarian currency collapse was a “Black Swan” event 1997 Bulgarian currency collapse 2008 Collapse of Lehman Brothers 2001 Twin towers attacks 2011 London Riots Black Swans are unpredictable, large impact events - they change people’s lives overnight 4  
  • 5. So, beware of forecasters who claim to be certain about future events 10 years? 5 years? 3 years? now Sometimes the best we can do is understand the now… Nowcasting 5  
  • 6. Britain is going through an age of uncertainty which makes forecasting challenging 6  
  • 7. Respected institutions like the IMF, Treasury and OBR have consistently made errors 7  
  • 8. Even, the ONS has found population projection challenging When will the UK population hit 64 million? 2021 ONS population projections In 2003 ONS, 2003-based national population projections 8  
  • 9. Even, the ONS has found population projection challenging When will the UK population hit 64 million? 2021 2013 ONS population projections In 2003 Actuals ONS, 2003-based & 2010-based national population projections 9  
  • 10. So you need to continuously, track trends, forecasts, and predictions against what the latest data says and what you observe! 10  
  • 11. Some of the sources for this presentation
  • 12. We have only focused on trends which we believe are of higher importance to you 12  
  • 13. Part 1: Socio-demographic trends and public attitudes 13  
  • 14. There is good news… 14  
  • 15. Self-reported happiness and life satisfaction will remain stable in the future Self-reported happiness (on a scale of 1 to 10) 7.5 stable b/n 2004 & 2011 British Social Attitudes Survey, 2012 edition Satisfaction with job (on a scale of 1 to 10) 6.9 7.3 2006 2011 15  
  • 16. New scientific revelations will revolutionise the thinking about people’s decision-making 16  
  • 17. Emotions will become a consumer/public measurement currency Decision Making 95% unconscious Gerald Zaltman, How Customers Think (2003) 5% rational 17  
  • 18. The public will continue to trust charities How much trust do you have in charities? (quite a lot/a great deal) 49% 51% 66% Nov 03 Sep 06 Mar 13 nfpSynergy Charity Awareness Monitor survey, 2003 - 2013; c1000 Adults 16+ 18  
  • 19. Young people will increasingly describe themselves as ‘spiritual’ “I consider myself to be a spiritual person” (% agree) Adults 15+ 27% 27% 2002/3 2012 Kantar TGI 2003/03 & 2012 25-34s 22% 27% 2002/3 2012 19  
  • 20. The NHS will continue to have a special place in public’s heart 1983 1993 2003 2012 Public ranking of health as a priority area for extra gov/t spend Top Top Top Top % of the public who chose health as a priority area for extra government spend 63% 70% 79% 71% British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition 20  
  • 21. The number of young people volunteering might continue to go up “I have volunteered in the last 3 months, for a charity or other organisation, or in my local community” (% agree) 16-25s 33% 18% 2003 +83% 2013 Between 2003 & 2013 nfpSynergy Charity Awareness Monitor survey; 1000 Adults, 2003, October 2013 21  
  • 22. There are challenges… 22  
  • 23. Public views on welfare will harden “Government should spend more on welfare benefits even if it leads to higher taxes” (% agree) 58% 1991 British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition 34% 2012 23  
  • 24. More people will believe that one needs to help oneself when the ‘going gets tough’ Government should redistribute income (% agree) Would like to see more government spending on benefits for disabled people, who cannot work (% agree) 1991 49% 1996 74% 2012 41% 2011 53% British Social Attitudes survey, 2012 & 2013 editions 24  
  • 25. Personalisation will be more important to some but not others Likelihood that website or email personalisation will lead to extra donations 18 - 24 44% 9% 4% 58% 29% More Likely 55+ 26% No Difference Less Likely YouGov Survey for Rocket Communication, Nov 2012; 1,441 UK adults online who donated money to charity last year 25  
  • 26. There will be significant socio-demographic shifts over the next decade UK Population changes in million by age (2013 to 2023) Baby Boomers Immigration +1.6m +1.5m Age 0-17 18-28 -0.7m ONS, 2010-based national population projections 29-40 +1.5m 41-51 +1.4m 52-64 65+ -1.2m 26  
  • 27. Volunteering in the UK will remain lower than in other countries, but could improve Volunteering time in the last month UK 23% 29% USA 44% 42% 2007 2012 CAF Giving Index 2012, Gallup 2007 27  
  • 28. Concern about health and NHS issues will rise due to funding pressures Satisfaction with the NHS overall (% very/quite satisfied) +19ppt -9ppt between 2001 & 2010 British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition Between 2010 & 2012 28  
  • 29. Public support for overseas development aid will continue to decline Support for increasing overseas aid (%age who support) 55% 46% 47% 40% ??% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 Public attitudes towards development, DFID, 2007 - 2010 29  
  • 30. A significant minority might continue to reject charity advertising Charities Banks Utility companies Advertising rejectors 31% 31% 28% Brand reputation 37% -55% -67% 30   Brand reputation from Public Opinion and the Evolving state report YouGov, Sep 2013 Advertising rejectors from The Consumer connections survey, Carat, 11000 sample, July 2012/Marketing week
  • 31. You can overcome the challenges… 31  
  • 32. Ensure your brand can show that it ‘cares’. Allow it to tap into people’s spirituality 32  
  • 33. Evolve your brand around understanding which emotions lead to action Will the public act more if it keeps feeling distraught? Will the public act more if it feels celebratory about the outcomes? 33  
  • 34. Use cognitive psychology breakthroughs to target and nudge audiences 34  
  • 35. Think about audience targeting strategically 1. What will happen to the target audience in 10 years time? 2. Do I understand the evolving needs of the target audience? 3. Have I tailored my communications to these needs?   35  
  • 36. Develop fundraising and marketing ideas around people’s desire to experience What I have Would I would been asked prefer to do to make a to do to donation donate Gap Set up a direct debit 58% 49% -9% Sponsored Walk/ Cycle/ run 41% 60% +19% Charities weathering the storm?, Ben Page, CEO Ipsos-Mori, All Adults, April 2012; 1,004 British Adults 36  
  • 37. Develop fundraising and marketing ideas around people’s desire to experience Charity creates experience More receptive to charity marketing Empowered supporter Happy person 37   Can brands make us happier?/The Guardian, based on Mood of the Nation research, Jan 2013 in the UK, nationally representative UK sample of 2,141 people.
  • 38. Ensure you personalise your approach to your target audiences 9% of people do 66% of the charitable activity Big data Britain’s Civic Core – Who are the people powering Britain’s charities?, CAF, Sep 2013 38  
  • 39. Part 2: Technological trends 39  
  • 40. There is good news… 40  
  • 41. Technological make up of the home is being enhanced Penetration amongst UK adults 80% Internet 56% Laptop/ netbook Year on year Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013 51% 24% smartphone tablet 100% on 2011 118% yoy 41  
  • 42. Media multi-tasking will eventually become the norm Regular media multi-taskers 53% Regular ‘stackers’ 49% Regular ‘meshers’ 25% UK Adults Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013 42  
  • 43. Technology has made instant and impulsive giving easier than ever 58% Traffic from mobile devices 42% Traffic from traditional desktop computers “We can see that mobile is driving unprecedented levels of generosity” Anna Kuriakose, Head of product, JustGiving Marathon runners hot mobile giving milestone, JustGiving, 22 April 2013 43  
  • 44. Social media, technology & stories will continue to get people to raise money independently $67 million 44   http://www.giveforward.com/p/cancer-fundraising
  • 45. There are challenges… 45  
  • 46. TV, which is an expensive marketing tool, will remain the most consumed medium 104h 122h a month a month 2004 2012 Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013 46  
  • 47. Technology will continue to contribute to people experiencing information overload ‘I feel bombarded by advertising (% agree) Kantar TGI, 2003/4 & 2012 39% 46% 2003/4 15-24s 2012 47  
  • 48. Understanding what is going on! 48  
  • 49. You can overcome the challenges… 49  
  • 50. Clarity and simplicity are going to be key to brand success Health leaflets at a GP reception in SW London – no message stands out 50  
  • 51. Ensure your brand has a strong digital pulse UK Ad Rejectors Adults Opportunity % who visit profile or fan pages of brands 21% 16% +5% % who interact with a brand online 19% 11% +6% “How brands overcome risk of rejection”, Marketing Week; 26 July 2012 By David Burrows 51  
  • 52. Innovate for portable internet enabled devices, particularly for Tablets 52  
  • 53. Think in terms of integrated marketing to reflect changing behaviour “I am a regular media multi-tasker whilst I watch TV” UK Adults 53% Smartphone users Tablet users 74% 81% Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013 53  
  • 54. If you are able to afford it, use TV as well as below the line marketing 122 35 Internet TV viewing hours hours spent by laptop and a month PC users a month Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013 32 Hours spent on tablet per month 54  
  • 55. Part 3: Economic trends 55  
  • 56. There is good news… 56  
  • 57. The general mood will continue to be less pessimistic and for some groups more optimistic 57  
  • 58. Unemployment numbers are falling and this is forecast to continue 58  
  • 59. House prices and mortgages are likely to continue their rises in the short term 59  
  • 60. Pensioner incomes look set to continue their recent increases 60  
  • 61. There are challenges… 61  
  • 62. Another housing boom could be followed by an inevitable bust 62  
  • 63. Another housing boom could be followed by an inevitable bust 63  
  • 64. Another housing boom could be followed by an inevitable bust 64  
  • 65. Another housing boom could be followed by an inevitable bust 65  
  • 66. Another housing boom could be followed by an inevitable bust 66  
  • 67. Fewer and fewer young people will live in family owned homes Just under 70% (1992) 25-34 Year olds Just over 40% (2012) 67  
  • 68. The multiple pressures on young people will remain 68  
  • 69. British family and disposable incomes are experiences an unprecedented squeeze 69  
  • 70. Inequalities will continue to grow 70  
  • 71. Inequalities will continue to grow 71  
  • 72. The economic danger of a sharp rise in interest rates will be a constant worry Daily Telegraph on the Office of Budget Responsibility report - Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2013 72  
  • 73. The economic danger of a sharp rise in interest rates will be a constant worry £1,286 bn National Debt (2013/14) £1,637 bn National Debt (2017/18) Cost of interest payments payments in 2017/18 £71bn Office of Budget Responsibility, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2013 73  
  • 74. The public sector will continue to face austerity. 74  
  • 75. The public will continue to scrutinise charity funds % agree “Ensure a reasonable proportion of donations get to end cause” 30% 32% 42% 43% 2005 2008 2010 2012 Is the top driver of trust and confidence Charities weathering the storm?, Ben Page, CEO Ipsos-Mori, All Adults, April 2012; 1,004 British Adults 75  
  • 76. Public donations will continue to be under pressure Amount donated to charities by adults down in cash terms £11bn £9.3bn £1.7bn down in real terms 2010/11 Source: UK Giving 2012, NCVO/CAF 2011/12 £2.3bn 76  
  • 77. You can overcome the challenges… 77  
  • 78. Acknowledge the public’s sustained top concerns in brand comms to stay relevant Top 10 Worries in 2012 49% 38% 35% 24% 23% Money/ Bank balance/ debt Family/ Friends Physical Health Job Security Appearance/ Ageing 23% 19% 19% 16% 14% World Affairs Mortgage/ Rent/ Housing Workplace Ability to cope Domestic issues emotionally Politics YouGov survey for The Samaritans, Nov 2012; 2,162 UK Adults 78  
  • 79. Pay greater attention to customer service and journeys’ online and face to face YouGov Survey for Sirportly, Feb 2013; 2,099 UK Adults 79  
  • 80. Build on the the last decade’s success in generating earned income 2000/01 2011/12 (£bn 2011 prices) (£bn, 2011 prices) Change Voluntary income 14 15 +3% Earned Income 11 21 +92% 3 2 -23% Investment income NCVO, UK Civil Society Almanac, http://data.ncvo-vol.org.uk/a/almanac13/almanac/databank/income-2/ 80  
  • 81. Innovate and don’t apologise for it 81  
  • 82. Plan actively manage your investments 82  
  • 83. Plan actively manage your investments 83  
  • 84. Don’t forget high net worth individuals 84  
  • 85. Engage in companies who want to partner to unlock their potential Why companies & NGOs engage in relationships win each other (top 3 reasons) Companies NGOs Reputation/ Credibility 91% Access to Funds Innovation 67% Access to People/ Contacts 83% Access to Knowledge 63% Reputation/ Credibility 65% Marketing Week, Two heads are better than one, 12 September 2013 http://www.marketingweek.co.uk/trends/why-two-heads-are-better-than-one/4007792.article 100% 85  
  • 86. Part 4: Political trends 86  
  • 87. There is good news… 87  
  • 88. The public will continue to have a stronger connection with local politics I want a great deal or some influence over 2009 25% 14% 2013 26% 16% Local decision making National decision making Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 88  
  • 89. The public will continue to be more satisfied with their local MP compared to all MPs I’m very or fairly satisfied with… 2009 41% 34% 2013 32% 23% My Local MP All MPs Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 89  
  • 90. The ethnic difference in interest in politics will continue to be non-existent I am very or fairly interested in politics 2004 52% 27% 25% 2013 41% 45% 4% White Ethnic Minorities Difference Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 90  
  • 91. There are challenges… 91  
  • 92. The disenchantment with politics is likely to continue 92  
  • 93. Interest in politics are at record lows. I am very or fairly interested in politics 50% 53% 2004 2005 56% 2006 54% 2007 51% 52% 2008 2009 Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 53% 58% 42% 2010 2011 42% 2012 2013 93  
  • 94. There is a real danger that less than 50% of the electorate will vote in the 2015 election I am absolutely certain or high likely to vote in an immediate general election 65% 66% GE: 61% 69% 69% 64% 66% 67% GE: 65% 69% 57% 50% 52% ?? 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 94  
  • 95. Despite preferences for their local MP, very few can name their local MP Correctly named their local MP 42% 44% 44% 38% 22% 2004 2007 2010 2011 2013 Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 95  
  • 96. Politics is fragmenting with smaller parties getting more votes Non Conservative/ Labour votes in General Elections 11% 19% 24% 28% 35% ?? 1970 1979 1992 2001 2010 2020 AKAS analysis of General Election results 96  
  • 97. Charities are not as influential as others Have a fair amount of influence on government policy, 2013 68% 53% 51% 19% Private Companies Consultants Trade Unions Charities YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/ 1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/ 97  
  • 98. In fact, the majority thinks charities have no influence on government policy Influence of charities on government policy, 2013 63% 19% No influence Fair amount of influence YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/ 1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/ 98  
  • 99. You can overcome the challenges… 99  
  • 100. Develop local, more personalised connections 100  
  • 101. Attempt to fill the democratic deficit by being the voice of donors, volunteers and beneficiaries Trusted to influence government, 2013 49% 28% Charities Trade Unions 16% 8% Private Consultants Companies YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/ 1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/ 101  
  • 102. Speak to a wide range of parties 102  
  • 103. And finally… 103  
  • 104. Sofia, Bulgaria in 1997 – What I learned… In difficult times you need to… Be Optimistic Connect Relate Be Flexible Adapt Scan Innovate Plan 104  
  • 105. Thank you! And enjoy the rest of the day Luba@addykassova.com Richard@addykassova.com 105  

×