Solar Market in Japan
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Solar Market in Japan

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This is my presentation at the JETRO seminar in 10/2009, about Japan\'s solar market

This is my presentation at the JETRO seminar in 10/2009, about Japan\'s solar market

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  • 日本市場 Europe had lead the world solar market Growth is slowing since 2008 - over supply Some of world's players started paying attention to Japanese market as the next growth opportunity
  • Sharp and Kyocera still two of the world’s five leaders in 2008
  • Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association Cells and module shipped Since 2005, Japanese market contracted while export grew Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association ① 日本の太陽光市場総論(市場規模、メインプレーヤー)、  太陽光発電協会が 6 月に発表した太陽電池の出荷統計によると、 2009 年 1 ~ 3 月の国内出荷量は発電能力ベースで前年同期比 18 %増えた。この 1 月から家庭用装置に対して政府補助金が復活したことなどが国内では追い風になっている。 補助金制度が復活した日本市場 日本の住宅用太陽光発電の導入推移を見ると、 2005 年度までは一貫して右肩上がりで導入件数は推移、 2005 年度には 7 万 2,825 件の導入があったが、 2006 年度より導入に関する補助金制度が廃止、これに伴い 2006 年度は 6 万 2,544 件、 2007 年度は 4 万 9,425 件と減少が続いた。しかし、 2008 年度は、平成 20 年度補正予算として組まれた「住宅用太陽光発電導入支援対策費補助金制度」が 2009 年 1 ~ 3 月の間、実施された結果 5 万 5,100 件と再び増加に転じた。 2009 年度も予算として総額 200 億 5,000 万円の補助金が組み込まれており、約 8 万 4,000 件の住宅への補助金支給が見込まれているという。
  • Mostly residential – Japan doesn’t have a Mojave desert Therefore, efficiency, compact size are important factors Utility scale, industrial (combined) is not significant
  • 再起 2005 年末の補助金打ち切りで冷え込んでいた日本市場 2009 年 1 月の補助金復活で立ち上がってきた Subsidy - Jan - March application is 22,500 cases - vs. annual installation of 55,000 in 2008 Govt budget for subsidy - 2008 - Y9 billion 2009 - Y47 biillion to give subsidy to 200,000 housenolds
  • 補助金と普及 Nikkei BP 太陽光発電への補助金制度が復活した。その額は、太陽光発電システムを購入する 1 世帯当たり約 20 万円。具体的には、 1kW 当たり 7 万円を補助する計画なので、標準的な 3.5kW のシステムでは 24 万 5000 円相当。標準的な機器が 230 万円前後だから、約 1 割安くなる計算だ。  日本の太陽光発電の普及は、補助金の影響を強く受けてきた。 2000 年代前半に 230 億円規模の補助金が出た時はシステムの導入件数も右肩上がりだったが、補助金が打ち切られた 06 、 07 年度には前年割れが続いた。
  • 自治体(例:東京都) 2009 , 2010  東京都では、太陽エネルギーの飛躍的な拡大を目指し、 2016 年までに 100 万キロワット相当の太陽エネルギーを都内に導入することを目標に掲げました。この実現に向けて、東京都は、財団法人東京都環境整備公社と連携し、平成 21 年 4 月から 2 カ年にわたり、 4 万世帯への太陽エネルギー利用機器の導入を目指した補助事業を実施します。 Source: Tokyo Metropolitan Center for Climate Change Actions Tokyo - also applies to rental property, including corporate residence
  • "School New Deal" 「スクールニューディール構想」が打ち出されました。3年間で、全国の公立小中学校、1万2千校に太陽光発電を導入する計画も含まれます。 MEXT Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology 導入の補助金制度 50% support Minimum of 4 million Yen
  • 固定買取 今年 11 月から新エネルギーによる発電を 1 キロワット当たり 48 円で電力会社に買い取らせる「固定買い取り制度」が始まるが、民主党政権はこれを拡充する。現行制度は太陽光発電の余剰分のみが対象だが、風力発電を含むすべての自然エネルギーが発電した全量を対象とする見通しだ。 経済産業省は 2 月、現行の電力買取価格を 2 倍程度に引き上げる制度の導入を発表した。 2010 年に実施する方針で、実現すると買い取り価格は 50 円 /kWh 程度になる見込み。これは、政府が電力会社に対して「高値での買い取り」を義務付けるもので、期間は 10 年程度。この高値の電力買い取り制度と設置費用への補助金制度とを活用すれば、初期費用の回収期間がぐんと短縮する。
  • The new target is a 25% reduction on 1990 levels—big enough to impress greens but also to worry the country’s carmakers.
  • Leading Japanese Companies 今後の注目は、太陽電池メーカーの動向。こぞって生産拡大を表明している。なかでも 07 年、生産量世界一の座をドイツの Q セルズに奪われたシャープは、 08 年 10 月から葛城工場(奈良県)の薄膜型太陽電池の生産能力を 10 倍以上に高めて年 160 万 kW に増やし、さらに 2010 年に稼働予定の堺工場では年間 100 万 kW の太陽電池を生産する計画。現行の生産能力が年 71 万 kW だから、 2 倍以上の規模だ。このほか、京セラは現状の 180 万 kW を 2010 年度に 500 万 kW 体制に、三洋電機も 2010 年度に 600 万 kW 体制に増強する。
  • Sharp Industry leader, former world leader till 2006 Lagged behind Q Cells due to silicon shortage Building capacity of thin film Modules that custom fit roofs Web monitoring
  • Kyocera Compact size, light modules Solar ventulation system for the new model of Prius
  • Trading companies are unique business models in Japan Not only trading, but integrated business, project finance, M&A, consolidation
  • Installation – (Solar City) Japan Ecosystem – 67% acquisition by Itochu
  • 外国企業の日本への参入状況 海外メーカー製の購入を示す輸入も前年同期と比べ約70倍増え、国内出荷の10%を占めるまでに伸びた。
  • Suntech Power (China) Dec 2008 - Alliance with West Holdings, Japanese house retrofitter, to install Suntech solar panels Started retail sales through 450 outlets of major home electric retailer, Yamada Electric from August 2009 Targets 10% share of residential solar in Japan within a year Price on par with leading Japanese products, but warranty 25 years instead of 10 Growth in Europe slows
  • Applied Materials Invented in America, built and sold abroad all 14 solar panel factories it’s built around the world in the last two years. None in the U.S. five are in Germany, four are in China, one is in Spain, one is in India, one is in Italy, one is in Taiwan and one is even in Abu Dhabi. “ About 95 percent of our solar business is outside the U.S.,” said Splinter. (AM CEO)
  • Opportunity for a Venture: Konarka Technologies Joint development and venture with Toppan Forms of organic film PV for indoor use March 2009 - announced the 2010 release of indoor light PV film, to be used in audio paper, one-time passward cards
  • Market size JPEA http://www.jpea.gr.jp/04doc01.html http://www.jpea.gr.jp/pdf/pub_st.pdf http://www.jpea.gr.jp/pdf/qlg2008.pdf

Solar Market in Japan Solar Market in Japan Presentation Transcript

  • The Sun Will Rise Again Opportunities in Japan's Solar Sector Chako Ando Cando Advisors
  • Agenda:
    • Solar market in Japan
    • Political climate
    • Major players
    • Opportunities
      • Market entry
      • Alliance
  • Solar market in Japan
    • Why “Again”?
    • Japan – ahead of world’s market
      • 1994 – 2005: Technology development and government incentives in the Solar sector
      • 1998 – 2004: Lead the world in cumulative installation
    • In 2004, Japanese solar panel manufacturers accounted for 50% of world’s share
  • Why “again”?
    • Market slowed down since 2005
      • Why? The incentive system expired
    • Japanese solar makers’ world share fell from 50% in 2004 to 25% in 2008
    World Solar Panel Share 2007 Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy Japan China Germany US Taiwan
  • World market share 2009 (est.) Source: iSuppli
  • Japan’s solar industry
    • Market size
    Export Domestic Source: JPEA 1 million kW 238K kW
  • Japan’s domestic solar market Residential Utility/Industrial
  • Recovery of the market
    • Subsidy re-established in Jan 2009
    • Jan - March application was 22,500 cases - vs. annual installation of 55,000 in 2008
    • Govt. budget for subsidy –
      • 2008 - Y9 billion
      • 2009 - Y47 billion ($500 mm)
        • (200,000 households)
    • 2009 April-June domestic shipment grew 83% from same period 2008
  • Political climate
    • Subsidy and tax breaks for residential installation
    • Local and regional subsidy
    • Feed-in Tariff Law (July 2009)
    • "School New Deal"
    • New DPJ Government
  • Political agenda
    • Target:
      • July 2008 - 10x solar PV by 2020
      • April 2009 - increased to 20x by 2020
    • Targets a 10 year payoff*
    • New DPJ regime - to expand to other renewable energies
    * A recent report by Chuo Mitsui Trust says it may be shortened to 8 years after FiT purchase incentive
  • Subsidy and market
    • Solar market in Japan is heavily affected by political subsidy
    • Substantial government subsidy in early 2000s
    • After 2005 expiration of subsidy program, the market contracted in 2006 and 2007
    • The new program would support about $2,000 per household, reducing the cost by 10%
    Subsidy # of installation Source: Nikkei Trendy
  • Local incentives
    • Example: Tokyo
    • Targets to introduce 1 million kw of solar power in the district by 2016
    • 2 year program started in April 2009
      • Subsidy for 40,000 households
      • Applies to rental property and corporate residence (national program is only owned homes)  
    Source: Tokyo Metropolitan Center for Climate Change Actions
  • "School New Deal"
    • Government aims to install solar panels on the rooftop of 12,000 public schools in 3 years
      • 50% support
      • Minimum of 4 million Yen budget per case
    Source: MEXT
  • Energy purchase (Feed-in Tariff)
    • New energy purchase system (FiT system) to start Nov 2009
    • Electric utility companies to purchase back renewable energy from homes for Y49/watt
    • 10 year program, reducing payback period
  • Hatoyama’s new government
    • More ambitious plan of greenhouse gas reduction
      • 25% reduction from 1990 level by 2020
      • Vs. 8% target by previous regime
    • Major environmental “Manifest” of DPJ
      • Cap-and-trade system
      • “ Global warming tax”
      • FiT, smart grid technology
      • Solar panel, auto, fuel cell
  • Leading Japanese Companies
    • Sharp
    • Kyocera
    • Sanyo
    • Mitsubishi
  • Sharp
    • Industry leader, former world leader untill 2006
    • Lagged behind Q Cells due to silicon shortage
    • Building capacity of thin film
      • Sakai Plant to produce 1 mm kW a year from 2010 – total production to double from 2008
    Web Monitoring – from PV Japan
  • Kyocera
    • Compact size, light modules
    • Solar ventilation system for the new model of Prius
  • Trading companies
    • Itochu
      • Solar installers, system integrators
        • 67% acquisition of Ecosystem Japan (March 2009)
        • 85% of Solar Net of U.S. (April 2009)
        • Solar Depot of California
        • Scatec Solar (Norway)
        • Enolia Solar (Greece)
    Source: Company website
  • Market opportunity
    • Opportunities in Japanese market
      • Panels, modules
      • Production equipment
      • Venture, co-development
      • Related services
        • Installation
        • Testing
  • Overseas companies in Japan
    • In April-June 2009, import grew 70x from previous year to 10% of Japanese market
    • Suntech Power (China)
    • Applied Materials
    • Opportunity for a Venture: Konarka Technologies
  • Suntech Power (China)
    • Dec 2008 - Alliance with West Holdings, Japanese home retrofitter, for panel installation
    • Started retail sales through 450 outlets of major home electric appliance retailer, Yamada Electric from August 2009
    • Targets 10% share of residential solar in Japan w/in a year
      • Growth in Europe slows
    • Price on par with leading Japanese products, but warranty 25 years instead of 10
  • Applied Materials
    • Global player of panel production
      • “ About 95 percent of our solar business is outside the U.S.”
    • All 14 solar panel factories it’s built around the world in the last two years - none in the U.S.
    • Thin film module production line “SunFab”
    • five are in Germany, four are in China, one is in Spain, one is in India, one is in Italy, one is in Taiwan and one is even in Abu Dhabi.
  • Opportunity for a Venture
    • Konarka Technologies
    • Joint development and venture with Toppan Forms of organic film PV for indoor use
    • March 2009 - announced the 2010 release of indoor light PV film, to be used in audio paper, one-time passwrd cards
  • Alliance Cases
    • Example: Sharp and Enel JV in Italy
      • Enel: Electric utility in Italy
      • Thin film panel production (1GW capacity)
      • 189 MW solar power generation facility
        • >100 billion yen investment ($1 bil.)
  • Part and component Source: Nikkei BP Electrode: DuPont, Ferro Backsheet Film: DuPont Silicon: Hemrock (US) REC (Norway) Backsheet: Isovolta (Austria)
  • Resources
    • JPEA
    • Market size http://www.jpea.gr.jp/04doc01.html
    • 2009 1Q http://www.jpea.gr.jp/pdf/pub_st.pdf
  • Thank you Contact: Chako Ando www.chakoando.com [email_address]