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Business Technology 2020


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In our new ebook, Business Technology 2020, the experts — who represent organizations such as Intel, IBM, Frost and Sullivan, Aberdeen, ATLANTIC-ACM and Current Analysis and more — cover topics that include the cloud, health care, cognitive computing and the role of the CIO, giving a holistic preview of how technology will impact your business in and leading up to 2020.

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  • 1. B u s i n e s s T e c h n o l o g yWhat technology experts foresee for thenot-so-distant, it-will-be-here-before-we-know-it future.
  • 2. T A B LE O F CON T EN T STechnology BecomesMore HumanBrian David Johnson05The Last CorporateData Center ShutsIts DoorsDick Csaplar09A New Business World,Thanks to CloudComputingKevin L. Jackson1113UnderstandingConsumers Now WillPrepare UsRichard Sear15Three Trends That WillTransform BusinessPaul Bloom07Smart Technology WillTransform Health CareStephen Ward17Welcome to theApp Store of 2020CenturyLink
  • 3. Cloud ComputingBarriers Will Fall,Adoption Will RiseSean BuckleyFor CIOs, the OnlyConstant is ChangeATLANTIC-ACM2527Expect Big Changesto IT Organizationand InfrastructureKen Male23Smaller Data Centers,Thanks to Virtualizationand Third-Party ProvidersRobert Neill19Smart Users andSmart Networks WillHelp Each Other GrowJuniper Networks‘Grandpa, What isa Computer?’Dick Csaplar3129Enterprise CloudAdoption Enters aNew PhaseAmy DeCarlo21
  • 4. 202020202020Technology is moving so quickly, predictions for next yearalready are losing relevance. A more distant view is nowrequired to stay ahead of the curve. Short-term trends comeand go, but the true impact of mobility, Big Data and the cloudstill remains to be seen. That’s why we asked some experts toweigh in on their long-term predictions for business technology.So 2020, here we go. Or rather, here we come.w e l c o m e t o4
  • 5. Brian David JohnsonFuturist and Director,Future Casting andExperience ResearchIntel Corporation@intelfuturisttomorrow-projects.comBrian David Johnson’s charteris to develop an actionable visionfor computing in 2020. Alongwith reinventing TV, Johnson hasbeen pioneering developmentin artificial intelligence androbotics and using science fictionas a design tool. He speaksand writes extensively aboutfuture technologies in articlesand scientific papers as wellas science fiction short storiesand novels (Fake Plastic Love,Nebulous Mechanisms: The Dr.Simon Egerton Stories and theforthcoming This Is Planet Earth).HUMANT e c h n o l o g y b e c o m e s m o r eAs Intel’s Futurist, it’s my job to look 10 to 15 years out andunderstand how people will act and interact with technology.5I do this through a process called futurecasting, a mix of social science, technicalresearch, economic forecasts, data analysis,hundreds of hours of global interviews — andeven a bit of science fiction. Although thismight sound a little like science fiction, it’sactually quite pragmatic. It takes about 10years for us to design, develop and deploy thechips, platforms and computational intelligencethat we manufacture as a company. It is ofvital business importance today for Intel tounderstand what people will want to doin a decade.One of the most exciting and importantdevelopments we’ve seen as we approach2020 is that the size of meaningfulcomputational power approaches zero. Aswe continue to make the chips smaller andfaster, the size of meaning computationpower approaches zero by volume. That’s sosmall that it’s nearly invisible. For decades inthe technology industry we’ve been askingourselves “can.” Can we make a workstationsmall enough to fit in a desktop? Can wemake a desktop computer small enough tofit in your lap? Can we make a laptop smallenough to fit in your pocket? Can we do it?That was the question.As we continue to make the chips smallerand faster, the size of meaning computationpower approaches zero by volume. That’s sosmall that it’s nearly invisible.
  • 6. Employment inall computeroccupationsincreases bySource: ComputerWorldPICTURING2020622%Imagine if your collection of business machinesknew all the most important things about you sothat you could be your most productive self. Weknow that our states change through the day.When we are at home, we are one person. Whenwe are at work, we are another. When we arebusy and rushed, we operate in one mode. Whenwe are on the road, we work in a completelydifferent fashion. Now imagine that your devicescould sense this through multiple hardware,software and service solutions and tailor yourworking experience for optimal comfort andproductivity.Hyper-personalization down to the individual cango far beyond the trivial. Imagine a machine thatcan tailor its information design differently forintroverts versus extroverts. This vision for thefuture of work gets really interesting when weapply it to the four generations of workers wewill need in the workforce in 2020.By asking ourselves what we want this increasingcomputational intelligence to do, we can makesystems that are more humanly, that adapt to awide variety of people and, ultimately, that makethe workforce of 2020 not only more productivebut able to live meaningfully better.When the size of meaningful computationalpower approaches zero, something wonderfulhappens. We don’t have to ask ourselves“can” we do it anymore. We have to askourselves “what.” What do we want do?When you get intelligence that small, youcan turn anything into a computer. You couldturn a table into a computer. All of a suddenit’s possible to turn your shirt, your chair andeven your body into a computer. That’s whywe have to ask: What do we want to do withall that intelligence?The business implications of this shift areboth exciting and massive. How we think aboutthe systems we build, the services we deployand the people we hire and train will need tochange. For example, all of this computationalpower will mean that we will be able tohyper-personalize the working environment foreach employee. People will not only be ableto work where and when they want, but theywill be able to work how they want, thanksto machines that can tailor themselves. Ourmachines will become more human and knowus better so that they can communicate withus with better efficiency.
  • 7. Key drivers of this future include:Even lower IT costs driven by higherlevels of automation and increasedon-demand and self-service capabilitiesA revolution in the consumer supply chainlogistics enabled by new manufacturingparadigms like digital product deliveryand three-dimensional printingBroadening network access allowinga global customer base for nearlyany productCross-service provider resource poolingenabled by inter-cloud standards and theubiquitous use of cloud service brokersKevin L. JacksonVice President and GeneralManager, Cloud ServicesNJVC@kevin_jacksonkevinljackson.blogspot.comKevin L. Jackson helps leadone of the largest informationtechnology solutions providersfor the U.S. Department ofDefense. He has been involvedin the effort between industryand the U.S. National Instituteof Stan­dards and Technologyon the federal adoption of cloudcomputing technologies. Heis the founder and author of“Cloud Musings” (, a widely followedblog that focuses on the use ofcloud computing by the federalgovernment, and editor andfounder of “Government CloudComputing on Ulitzer” electronicmagazine ( N e w B u s i n e s s W o r l d , T h a n k s t oThe world is accelerating into cloud computing. By 2020,cloud service will be the primary IT consumption sourcefor 90 percent of individuals and enterprises.11Although technologyis certainly theenabler, change in thebusiness environmentis being acceleratedby our expandingdigital culture.CLOUDCOMPUTING
  • 8. picturing2020Source: Mashable46%12An often overlooked part of this story is thatcloud computing is changing the very nature ofbusiness. Although technology is certainly theenabler, change in the business environmentis being accelerated by our expanding digitalculture. That, in turn, is also widening theuse and acceptance of task-built virtualorganizations. A 2020 leading edge corporationwill resemble a pick-up basketball team:Quickly assembledFocused on accomplishing ashort-lived mutual goalDispersed quickly once the goalis obtainedIT infrastructure will be assembled in asimilar fashion by going to a cloud brokeragewebsite, swiping a credit card, pickingfrom a menu of pre-assembled businessprocess-as-a-service (BPaaS) offerings,renewing periodically and simply turning offthe IT when finished. Software developersalso will be an anachronism. The abilityof business managers to simply assemblecustom business applications from the menuprovided by an advanced, infrastructureindependent, platform-as-a-service offeringwill be an expected skill. Business ownersand shareholders will be amply rewardedfor these cloud enabled sense-and-respondcapabilities with global market share anduntold riches.This future vision is virtually guaranteed.Would you go back to using a flip phone thatcan do nothing more than make a phone call?Cloud computing revolutionized the consumermarketplace, and it will certainly revolutionizethe business marketplace as well.Millennials composeof the U.S. workforce.
  • 9. Get your free copy of Business Technology 2020, includingexpert predictions for the future of technology by Frost & Sullivan,Juniper Networks, IBM and more:Have your own take on business technology in 2020? Want tofind out what others have to say? Follow @CenturyLinkEnt anduse the hashtag #biztech2020 to stay in the loop.KEEP READING TOSEE WHAT’S NEXTContinue to expand your business technology knowledge by visiting us the ebook now at
  • 10. Materials presented for informational purposes only. CenturyLink endorses no product, service, solution, or idea expressed here, andhas no responsibility or obligation whatsoever related to these items, including the viability or availability of any item for any personor business. All opinions and ideas expressed are solely those of the respective authors and do not reflect the positions or opinions ofCenturyLink and do not represent any indication of future CenturyLink products and services. CenturyLink is not liable for any results,injuries, or damages resulting from these authors’ opinions and ideas. © 2012 CenturyLink, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The name CenturyLinkand the pathways logo are trademarks of CenturyLink, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.