Spatial@gov conference 2011 john bally
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Spatial@gov conference 2011 john bally

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    Spatial@gov conference 2011 john bally Spatial@gov conference 2011 john bally Presentation Transcript

    • Forecast Systems to GenerateSpatial Weather InformationJohn Bally The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Introduction- Traditional Weather Forecasting- NexGen Forecast and Warning System- Satellite derived data streams- Temporal and spatial detail- NexGenFWS as an interactive processing engine The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Traditional “Manual” Text ForecastsFORECASTS FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIAN PROVINCIAL TOWNSIssued at 4:30am WST on Friday the 28th of October 2011for today and tonightIDW1400012KUNUNURRA:The risk of a gusty shower or thunderstorm. Light winds. Maximum temperature: 37 UV Alert: 7:20 am to 3:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]IDW1400001BROOME:Sunny. Light S/SW winds tending moderate Wly by the afternoon. Maximum temperature: 32 UV Alert: 7:40 am to 3:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme] The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Traditional Fire Weather ForecastLocation Max Dew RH Wind Curing SDI DF GFDI FFDI Temp TempBothwell 32 8 25 NNE45 95% 80 9 32 38 - Once or twice per day - 20 to 50 points - representative? - Interpolation? (topo, local effects, fuel .) - Poor use of environmental information The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Traditional ForecastingExamine information: Construct mental• surface measurements Type forecasts picture of how weather• satellite and radar images will evolve• computer models The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • What’s wrong with tradition?• Too much info for forecasters• Ad-hoc forecast process• Limited information in products• Impractical to verify most forecasts• Forecasters spend too much time typing• Limited product sets The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • NPP: Next Generation Forecast and Warning System• Costed function target: Modernised state-of-the-art weather forecast services• KPI: Increased detail and content of forecast services, with national consistency, flexibility, responsiveness and greater accessibility (including Internet based services). In particular, seven day forecasts for 650 locations in Australia and "point and click" Internet- based extraction of forecast for any location The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Weather and Ocean Satellite systems GRACE Aqua Cloudsat CALIPSO TRMMSSMIS GIFTS TOPEX NPP LandsatMSG Meteor/ SAGE GOES-RCOSMIC/GPS NOAA/ POES NPOESS SeaWiFS Terra Jason SORCE Aura WindSAT ICESat The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • MTSat-1R VIS AMVs generated around 00 UTC on 17 October 2010. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • GPS/COSMIC Radio Occultation 3000 occultations/day 6 receivers 24 transmitters The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • GPS / COSMIC GPS radio occultation sounding positions for 15 March 2009. (Image courtesy of UCAR.) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Models The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Weather Model skill over time 3.0 Day+1 Day+2 Day+3 Day+4 Day+5 Day+6 Day+7 Official Day+1 2.8 Operational 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 CO MAE 1.8 1.6 1.4 res. Canadian MSM 1.2 USGFS hi res GASP, LAPS (Adelaide, USGFS lo MOF ends ECSP low LAPS 050 upgrade ECSP hi Perth) 1.0 res 0.8 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Is there a better way?• Lots more and smarter forecasters?• Just use the models?• What about a spatial forecasting environment? The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • What is the NexGen FWS? GOCF Other obs & systems NexGenFWS The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Forecast Process Tool Kit The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Fire Weather Grid Creation The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Morphing Wind and temperature field moved simultaneously Front moves east. Mountains & coasts stay put. Before morph After morph The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Basic Weather Elements PoP Precip Sky Dewpoint The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Weather Grids The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Fire Weather Elements Hourly FFDI Time of Max FFDI The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Fire Weather Elements Hours >50 FFDI Max FFDR The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Fire Weather Elements Time of Wind Change Wind Following Change The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Drought Index & Drought Factor• Forecast DF• Rainfall forecast weighted to 75% confidence The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Curing / Fuel coverage example The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Curing / Fuel coverage The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Benefits : detail in time, space, elements, XML The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Benefits : views, interoperability The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Benefits : views, interoperability The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Summary• Better use of NWP models• Systematic forecast process• Temporal and spatial detail• Can verify everything• Efficiency gains• Many new services• Towards interoperability across agencies The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
    • Forecast Systems to Generate Spatial Weather InformationThankyou John Bally The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology