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CeBIT Spatial@gov 2012 - Air Commodore Mark Ashwell (retired), Managing Partner, MLA Consultancy Services (United Kingdom)
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CeBIT Spatial@gov 2012 - Air Commodore Mark Ashwell (retired), Managing Partner, MLA Consultancy Services (United Kingdom)

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  • 1. Mark AshwellTrends in Intelligence – Some Thoughts 1960 -70 National 2011 Commercial
  • 2. SCOPE1970Corona INSTABILITY WICKED PROBLEMS GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE INTELLIGENCE PROCESSES MULTI INT FUSION ACTIVITY BASED INTELLIGENCE 2000 Google
  • 3. CHALLENGES OF INSTABILITYInter State Warfare Somali PiracyIntra State Warfare Irene SLInsurgencyTerrorismCriminality (Drugs - Arms ) Probable Poppy fields Kandahar AfghanistanPoverty & DiseaseEthnic and Religious TensionChallenge for Resources Probable Poppy
  • 4. INFORMATIVE TEXTSKaplan – The Coming AnarchyHuntington – The Clash Of CivilizationsVan Krefeld – The Transformation of WarBarnett - The Pentagon’s New PlanKrulak – The 3 Block WarSmith – The Utility of Force(Wars Amongst the People)Friedman - Hot, Flat and CrowdedKilcullen – The Accidental GuerrillaKahneman- Thinking Fast and Slow
  • 5. CHALLENGES OF INSTABILITYInter State Warfare Somali PiracyIntra State Warfare Irene SLInsurgencyTerrorism WICKED PROBLEMSCriminality (Drugs - Arms ) Probable Poppy fields Kandahar AfghanistanPoverty & DiseaseEthnic and Religious TensionChallenge for Resources Probable Poppy
  • 6. WHAT IS WICKEDProfessor Keith Grint – Wicked Problems and Clumsy SolutionsCritical (Crisis) Problem – Command – Provide AnswersTame Problem - Management – Process SolutionsWicked Problem – Leadership – Questions (Understanding and Integration)
  • 7. RECENT LESSONSUnderstanding the Human Terrain -(Kilcullen) 1. Move from need to know to responsibility toStrategies for Iraq and Afghanistan provide 2. Integration of Collection and AnalysisFlynn – articulated what a many had 3. Collaboration between Scientists, Analysts and appreciated. Operators to exploit applications. (J2 – J3 – J6) 4. Fusion and exploitation of multi intelligence. (GEOINT Platform) 5. Commercial Impact. (process to problem solving) Changes in 6. Exploitation of web based processes. (NETWORKS) Intelligence 7. Analysis synthesizing and exploiting big data. (New Assurance Models) Processes
  • 8. Early Imagery Exploitation Corona OPEN CLASSIFIED
  • 9. GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCEGeospatial Intelligence consists of imagery, imagery intelligence, and geospatialinformation.The term "geospatial intelligence" means the exploitation and analysis of imageryand geospatial information to describe, assess, and visually depict physical featuresand geographically referenced activities on the earth.
  • 10. GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCEDirector Leticia Long – GEOINT 2010
  • 11. Imagery Exploitation Today OPEN Augmented Reality Network Enabled Measure Measure
  • 12. Commercial - Analysis 2,171 Ships in 9 minutes 01 seconds Detection Rate: 241 Ships/Minute
  • 13. Commercial - Analysis Analysts Without Borders"We can witness in near real-time and put all parties on notice thatif they commit war crimes, we will all be watching, and pressuringpolicymakers to take action.“George Clooney 13
  • 14. Decision Superiority Cycle Decide Knowledge Orientate Information Understand Act Data What is What has ObserveChanging Changed MEASURE
  • 15. EVOLVING INTELLIGENCE MODEL HUMINT GEOINT SIGINT MASINT
  • 16. Multi Intelligence Fusion• Joint Inter-Agency Task Force (JIATF)• Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC)• Joint Narcotics Analysis Centre (JNAC)• Counter IED Defeat Organization (CIEDDO)• Defence Intelligence Operations Coordination Centre (DIOCC)• Defence Geospatial Intelligence Fusion Centre (DGIFC)• Integrated Analytical Environment (NGA) – Integrated Working Groups
  • 17. OPEN SOURCE – BIG DATACounter Intelligence HUMINT GEOINT OSINT OSINF SIGINT MASINT Information Assurance
  • 18. Big Data• McKinsey Pools of data that can be Large captured, communicated, aggregated, stored and analyzed “Big Data” refers to datasets whose size is beyond the ability of typical software tools to capture, store manage and analyze
  • 19. Big Data Trends € 250 BillionPotential annual value to Europe’sPublic sector 60% potential increase in retailers operating margins £600 Billion potential annual 140 -190,000 consumer surplus from using personal More deep analytical location data globally talent positions (US)
  • 20. Integration/Aggregation
  • 21. Problem Solving Teams All Source (Problem Solving) Analyst Information(Data Mining) Specialist
  • 22. SUMMARY1. Move from need to know to responsibilityto provide.2.Integration of Collection and Analysis3.Collaboration between Scientists, Analystsand Operators to exploit applications4.Fusion and exploitation of multi intelligence.(GEOINT Platform)5.Commercial Impacts. (process to problem solving)6.Exploitation of web based processes. (NETWORKS)7.Analysis, synthesis and exploitation of big data.(New Assurance Models)
  • 23. INTEGRATION1. Complete (imperfect thing) by the addition of parts into a whole.2.Combination of diverse elements. AGGREGATION1.Collected into one body (unite)2.Sum total assemblage