CeBIT Big Data 2012 - Glen Ryman, Director, Deloitte Analytics, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

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  • 1. Distribution Network Analytics and the Forecasting ConundrumCeBit Big Data ConferenceSydney, 01 November 2012
  • 2. But first a brain teaser…. Think about the number 0.9 Now think about 0.99 Now 0.999 What if we make the number of decimal places recurring infinitely? Let x = 0.9 10x = 9.9 9x = 9 x=1 But hang on, that means…. 1 = 0.9 “most people have been indoctrinated to accept the first equation without thinking” - Fred Richman2 Distribution Network Analytics and the Forecasting Conundrum © 2012 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • 3. Electricity prices are increasing • Australia spends more than $35 billion every five years on Source: Electricity Network Regulatory Frameworks electricity network capital expenditure (or 15 times the rate of Draft Report, Productivity Commission, October 2012 spend on the NBN) • This has been the most significant driver of increased electricity prices • Network charges have increased in NSW by 130% in five years • Our client is responsible for electricity supply to 1.3 million addresses • The network is valued at $9.8 billion • Capital expenditure of $1 billion per annum3 Distribution Network Analytics and the Forecasting Conundrum © 2012 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • 4. Capital investment has been driven by peak demand. • Network capital costs are driven by peak demand • Our client had experienced sudden growth in populations with “peaky” demand profiles • Urban growth did not necessarily follow “the plan” • Previously, forecasting was a based on manipulating a small number for growth factors but these factors were assumed and had never really been tested experimentally• How can we forecast urban growth that is not planned?• How can we plan for growth where there is currently no population and therefore no demand data?• Can we plan to sufficiently low level geographical detail to work out where best to put the next substation or feeder?• Are we able to identify small areas with short periods of rapid growth – the “S” curve Source: http://insidesmartgridanalytics.wordpress.com4 Distribution Network Analytics and the Forecasting Conundrum © 2012 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • 5. The approach was to combine theory and data • This was a really, really complex problem • Data didn’t make it less complex • But it did help us to make sense of it and work towards a solution • We did some research on current urban growth modelling theory • And then looked at the data we had available Subdivisions Building Approvals Meter Connections Population5 Distribution Network Analytics and the Forecasting Conundrum © 2012 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • 6. Our solution • Divide south east Queensland into very small grids (400m x 400 m) • Fill each grid with data from each year of observation • Model change in each variable based on the values in the “grid of interest” plus variables from surrounding grids • A type of cellular automata • “Birds of a feather flock together”6 Distribution Network Analytics and the Forecasting Conundrum © 2012 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • 7. The results • Bottom up, outside in vs. top down, inside out forecasting • Forecast meter by meter. • CAPEX savings • Accurate revenue forecasting • Empowerment to capture the policy conversation • Empowerment to build organizational expertise in data and analytics.7 Distribution Network Analytics and the Forecasting Conundrum © 2012 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • 8. Spatial Demand Forecasting - Example 2011 2015 20208 Distribution Network Analytics and the Forecasting Conundrum © 2012 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • 9. Spatial Demand Forecasting - Example9 Distribution Network Analytics and the Forecasting Conundrum © 2012 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • 10. About DeloitteGeneral information only Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limitedThis presentation contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate andits member firms, or their related entities (collectively the “Deloitte Network”) is, by means of this independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/au/about for a detailed description of the legalpresentation , rendering professional advice or services. structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms.Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services to public and private clientsshould consult a qualified professional adviser. No entity in the Deloitte Network shall be responsible spanning multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this presentation. countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and high-quality service to clients, delivering the insights they need to address their most complex business challenges. Deloittes approximately 195,000 professionals are committed to becoming the standard of excellence. About Deloitte Australia In Australia, the member firm is the Australian partnership of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu. As one of Australia’s leading professional services firms. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu and its affiliates provide audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services through approximately 6,000 people across the country. Focused on the creation of value and growth, and known as an employer of choice for innovative human resources programs, we are dedicated to helping our clients and our people excel. For more information, please visit our web site at www.deloitte.com.au. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited © 2012 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu