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Title of the Presentation Title of the Presentation Presentation Transcript

  • Committed to Connecting the World Voice over Internet Protocol: Enemy or Ally? GSR 2009 Beirut, Lebanon 11-12 November 2009 Phillippa Biggs Economist CSD/SPM, ITU This presentation solely reflects the views of the author and does not represent the views of ITU or its Member States in any way. International Telecommunication Union
  • Committed to Connecting the World Agenda VoIP is growing strongly In traffic… …And Subscribers… …And National Regulation. Regulatory Issues – in Summary! Defining VoIP (Tentative) Conclusions Measures to grow (VoIP) market April 2008 2
  • Committed to Connecting the World VoIP is growing strongly - Quarter of all int’l traffic in 2008 International and Time Division Multiplexing (TDM) Traffic, 1997-2008 Source: Telegeography 2008. April 2008 3
  • Committed to Connecting the World ….And in Subscribers…. VoIP Subscribers VoIP subscribers (m) 300 VoIP % total mainline subscribers 18 Regional distribution of VoIP 16 Subscribers, Q1 2009 250 Asia- 14 Pacific Millions 200 12 W.Europe 26% 38% 10 150 E.Europe 8 1% 100 6 Latin America 4 50 3% 2 SE Asia N.America 0 0 5% 27% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sources: iDATE (left), Point Topic (right graph). April 2008 4
  • Committed to Connecting the World …And National Regulation Worldwide regulation of VoIP, 2004-2009 Banned Closed No framework Allowed 100% 46 59 2004 - 80% 69 79 88 92 Half all countries 60% 57 allowed 51 2009 – 46 Two- VoIP 42 40% 8 39 39 thirds 10 12 12 permit 11 11 VoIP 20% 80 71 64 58 53 49 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ITU. April 2008 5
  • Committed to Connecting the World Americas (North & South) Americas, 2004-2009 Banned Closed No framework Allowed 100% 5 5 8 10 10 80% 11 60% 21 21 18 17 17 17 40% 1 1 2 20% 2 2 2 8 8 7 6 6 5 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 April 2008 Source: ITU. 6
  • Committed to Connecting the World Europe & CIS Europe & CIS, 2004-2009 Banned Closed No framework Allowed 100% 80% 27 29 34 37 60% 40 40 40% 17 15 20% 12 10 1 2 8 8 5 4 3 2 1 1 0% 1 1 1 1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 April 2008 Source: ITU. 7
  • Committed to Connecting the World Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa, 2004-2009 Banned Closed No framework Allowed 100% 2009 –13 2 countries 5 7 8 8 0 11 13 explicitly 80% permit retail 5 4 4 1 1 1 4 VoIP – but 60% 1 4 nearly 20 1 countries using IP- 40% 35 based 29 29 29 26 transmission 24 for 20% international traffic 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 April 2008 Source: ITU. 8
  • Committed to Connecting the World Arab States Arab States, 2004-2009 Banned Closed No framework Allowed 100% 2 3 3 5 6 6 3 2 80% 3 2 3 2 3 3 4 60% 4 3 3 40% 15 14 13 11 10 20% 9 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 April 2008 Source: ITU. 9
  • Committed to Connecting the World Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific, 2004-2009 Banned Closed No framework Allowed 100% 9 80% 14 15 17 17 18 60% 11 7 7 3 3 8 8 8 40% 3 3 4 4 20% 16 15 14 11 10 9 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 April 2008 Source: ITU. 10
  • Committed to Connecting the World Regional Picture in 2009 Worldwide Regulation of VoIP, 2009 Banned Closed No framework Allowed 100% 13 6 11 80% 18 92 4 4 60% 1 40 2009 – 3 Two- 8 16 39 thirds 40% permit 24 4 11 VoIP 20% 9 2 9 8 49 6 0% 1 1 SSA Arab Asia- Americas Europe & World Pacific CIS April 2008 Source: ITU. 11
  • Committed to Connecting the World Regulatory Issues Defining VoIP – often a challenge ‘Pure’ QoS: wireless VoIP & VoWiMAX Network Management & “Net Neutrality” – QoS & blocking Universal Service – 43% VoIP states Numbering & number portability Access to Emergency Services – 47% Security is a growing issue. April 2008 12
  • Committed to Connecting the World Defining VoIP Definition Selected countries Functionality Japan, Hong Kong (China) Numbering Japan, Taiwan (China) Vo-Broadband Austria, France, Netherlands Degree over Bahrain, Barbados, Brazil, Chile, PSTN Israel, Jordan, Kenya, Norway UK Service Barbados, Bolivia, Czech Rep. Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, US Nomadic Iceland, Italy, Portugal, Spain Users Chile, Ghana, Tunisia April 2008 13
  • Committed to Connecting the World Outlook & Conclusions (1) Developing countries and SIDS still struggling with convergence & VoIP regulation –difficult & raises big issues; So is Europe! Diversity in regulatory approach, despite efforts by EU & ERG. Market structure and incumbent’s revenue structure have a big impact on willingness to embrace (retail) VoIP - as do political realities. Wholesale VoIP widely adopted. April 2008 14
  • Committed to Connecting the World Outlook & Conclusions (2) The overall market direction is clear. Smaller slice of growing comm. market? Bahraini players thought so! Opening up VoIP could help industry, market liberalization & new services. Regulators (largely) know this – question of time & making the transition Better to move fwd & work with industry to embrace future Cheaper voice service = digital inclusion April 2008 15
  • Committed to Connecting the World Measures to Grow (VoIP) market National BB policy and backbone Promote competition & market entry Technological neutrality Liberalize international gateways Promote unbundling & infrast-sharing Number portability incl. VoIP providers Simplify licensing procedures & rules Regular monitoring and consultation with the industry April 2008 16
  • Committed to Connecting the World Please complete our survey! ITU analysis is only as good as our data – please help make our data & analysis more accurate ITU - Committed to connecting the world - Committed to monitoring the world April 2008 17
  • Committed to Connecting the World Thank you for your attention Phillippa.biggs@itu.int www.twitter.com/phillippabiggs ITU - Committed to connecting the world April 2008 18