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RickThompson-Heavy Reading.ppt

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  • IPTV alone is not the killer app Multi-service is critical Price competition could kill profitability Providers must find away to differentiate their service long term Juniper: Controlling the customer experience is critical across multiple active services to the home New business models are possible with this control
  • Only 2% said it was more hype than hope Positive attitudes toward WiMax and its role in telecom networks cut across all service provider types. Long distance carriers were most positive, and carriers in AsiaPac Less than 10% going with pre-certified ie pre-Wimax products Almost one-third said definitely or probably use unlicensed spectrum Alvarion has established a clear lead with Intel the lead evangelizer
  • In total, 262 service provider professionals, representing more than 175 different wireless and wireline network operators worldwide, participated in the Heavy Reading survey.
  • Vendors developing Mobile WiMax systems have got a lot prove. So far, the technology is largely restricted to the lab and the standards-making bodies, and there are very few, if any, examples of system-level deployments. At a strategic level, the challenge is to position Mobile WiMax between wireless LAN, Fixed WiMax, and 3G cellular. In our view, therefore, the major market opportunity is for low-mobility, high-speed services. In this scenario, the user device would be a laptop or, possibly, a PDA. Coverage would be in a metro hotzone, suburb, or other well-bounded area, and users would be able to move between islands of coverage with a single account. Apart from rare exceptions (Korea), we don't expect to see nationwide, or even many city-wide, Mobile WiMax networks rolled out for mass-market services in either the near- or medium-term. The reason for this is that WiMax can best compete against cellular on data rate and price per bit, but not on mobile voice or coverage. As a result, handover between cells will be viewed as more luxury than necessity in most network deployments. Another reason to sacrifice mobility in favor of throughput is so that the same network infrastructure can efficiently support both fixed and portable customers – because, as noted, many of the enhancements in 802.16e also apply to fixed usage. Supporting both types of customer on one network vastly enhances the business case for network rollout. Furthermore, by the time Mobile WiMax is commercialized, it will be competing with enhanced 3G systems and will face a market-positioning battle with the next generation of cellular radio interfaces – and that's a roadmap expected to steal some of Mobile WiMax's best tricks. The conclusion, then, is that for all its promise, Mobile WiMax will have difficulty finding a market big enough to generate the economies of scale that will permit it to truly thrive.
  • Transcript

    • 1.
      • Rick Thompson
      • Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading
      The Evolution of Triple Play: VOIP, IMS, FMC, WiMAX, IPTV Triple Play Symposium 2006 Dallas, Boston, Paris
    • 2. Heavy Reading Research
      • Heavy Reading has published numerous research reports, analyzing the current state of the technology & expected market development for topics including IPTV, VOIP, IMS, FMC, Carrier Ethernet, IP DSLAMs, ROADMs, Pseudowires, AdvancedTCA, Next-Gen SONET, etc.
      • Heavy Reading next-gen broadband/IPTV research 2005 and 2006:
        • IPTV and the Future of Telecom Video Network Architectures (6/05)
        • IP DSLAMs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (8/05)
        • MSAPs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (10/05)
        • IP Video and the New Broadband Edge (12/05)
        • DSL Gateways: Beyond the Router (2/06)
        • Multimedia Whole-Home Networking: Solving the IPTV Distribution Dilemma (4/06)
        • The Future of Internet TV: Emerging “Over-the-Top” Internet Video Services (planned Summer 2006)
      • Heavy Reading conducted interviews with hundreds of technology suppliers, service providers & investors with a direct interest in telecom-related topics.
    • 3. Beyond Triple Play: Flexibility Is the Killer APP Wireless Backhaul Online Collaboration Video Telephony Info Services Sports, Games, Hobbies Video IP/PC TV Video on Demand Pay Per View Digital Video Recording Streaming Audio Radio Concerts Streaming Music Instant Messaging Fax Services Email Dynamic Bandwidth Upgrades Personal Storage Images, Video, Data Distributed Printing Photos, Etc. Info Services Financial, News, Travel Home Monitoring Entertainment Productivity/Reference Communications Personal Video Tiered VPN Security Anti-Virus Firewall SPAM URL Filtering Voice (VoIP) On-Line Gaming Downloads Real-Time Play Multiplayer Hosting
    • 4. Incumbent Dilemmas, 2005
      • British Telecom
        • Retail revenues down 2.5%
        • Retail profits down 10%
      • Deutsche Telecom
        • Domestic revenues down 1.6%
        • Broadband/fixed revenues down 3.6%
      • France Telecom
        • Domestic residential revenues down 1.2%
        • Domestic enterprise revenues down 5.4%
      • KPN
        • Fixed network revenues down 4%
        • Business revenues down 9%
    • 5. Major Themes
      • VOIP will be the dominant wireline telephony technology within five years– situation is less certain on the wireless side
      • IMS has won near-universal support among service providers, and is driving RFPs for NGNs
      • WiFi, WiMax and IP could disrupt the mobile telephony cartel, with major long-term consequences
      • Multimegabit broadband networks will spread rapidly in the next five years, with telcos moving increasingly to FTTx after 2008
      • This transition is being driven by the need to provider high-quality video content, including HDTV and online gaming
      • This in turn is having a major impact on home technologies, where the market is wide open to innovation
    • 6. By 2007, VOIP Will Dominate Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to VOIP, August 2005. Base: 125 Service Providers
    • 7. Mainstream VOIP Is a Reality
      • Service provider VOIP deployment plans
      • VOIP versus Internet voice
      • Source: The Future of VOIP: A Heavy Reading Service Provider Study, September 2005
    • 8. There Are Still Technical Barriers
    • 9. IMS Research Findings
      • The 2006-2007 time period will be the most important period in FMC, IMS and NGN technology and service development.
      • For service providers, IMS's main appeal is its ability to provide more applications faster and at lower cost.
        • Fixed/mobile convergence is an important secondary motivator.
      • Although IMS is seen primarily as a mechanism for deploying revenue-generating applications, there is little agreement about which applications should be deployed first, and this lack of consensus may delay carrier implementations.
      • IMS is a complex specification, and there are gaps in the standards, especially around policy control and service creation.
      • There are strong parallels and linkages between IMS and two other emerging industry standardization movements: service delivery platforms and AdvancedTCA.
    • 10. When IMS? Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider Technology Deployment Plans
    • 11. Why IMS?
      • Layered architecture
        • Separates transport, control and applications
        • “ We can buy best of breed at every layer!”
      • Access-agnostic
        • Simpler convergence of fixed and mobile networks
        • “ Services no longer tied to access network technology!”
      • IP applications
        • With QoS, security, charging
        • “ A means to fight IP applications leakage to the Internet!”
      • New kinds of applications
        • Blended together
        • “ Higher ARPU, lower churn!”
      • More applications, much more quickly, at much lower cost
        • But controlled, supplied and billed by service provider
        • “ No need to rely on a few killer apps!”
    • 12. Apps and Services Drive IMS Source: Heavy Reading 2006 Survey of Service Provider Plans for IMS. Base: 93 Service Providers
    • 13. Service Providers Buy The FMC Vision Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to Fixed-Mobile Convergence, November 2004. Base: 109 Service Providers
    • 14. Expect FMC to Transform the Industry Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to Fixed-Mobile Convergence, November 2004. Base: 109 Service Providers
    • 15. FMC Is A Higher Priority For European Service Providers
    • 16. Obstacles To FMC Progress Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider Technology Deployment Plans
    • 17. WiMAX Deployment Plans
      • Network operators are overwhelmingly positive about the impact WiMax will have on networks
      • WiMax enthusiasm cuts across all types of carriers and across all geographic regions
      • The next 12 to 18 months will be critical in determining carrier investment in WiMax
      • More than 80 percent of survey respondents expect to see WiMax deployments by the end of 2007
      • Network operators are surprisingly open to deploying WiMax using unlicensed spectrum, but interest in pre-standard WiMax products is slight
      • Carriers expect to use WiMax to bolster delivery of voice, data, and even triple-play services, but there’s less interest in WiMax for wireless backhaul
    • 18. WiMAX Product Maturity
    • 19. WiMAX Deployment Plans
    • 20. Mobile or Fixed WiMAX?
    • 21. Mobile WiMAX
      • The first Mobile WiMax services will launch in Korea in mid 2006, using Samsung equipment; U.S. service launches will follow, possibly as soon as 2007
      • Stealth chipset startups are attempting to leapfrog the market and go directly to Mobile WiMax; names in the frame include Beecem, SiWave, Cygnus, Runcom
      • Adaptix claims to have already demonstrated system-level mobility based on scaleable OFDMA
      • A market for 802.16e line cards and software will emerge alongside demand for smart antenna software suites, as major fabs and OEMs catch on to Mobile WiMax's potential
      • Initial services will offer handoff performance suitable for data, but unsuitable for VOIP services
    • 22. IPTV: Telecom Meets Entertainment
      • TV delivery is moving from HFC-based broadcast to IP-based multicast/unicast
        • Telcos: IPTV, Telco TV, Telco Video (different names, same thing)
        • MSOs: SDV initiatives; NGNA (many IPTV-like concepts)
      • “ Internet TV” is organically evolving in parallel
        • Google, Yahoo, Apple, YouTube, MLB.com, major broadcast channels, etc.
        • Technology platforms: Brightcove, Narrowstep, thePlatform, Veoh, etc.
        • Network technologies: DPI, Policy Control, granular QoS
        • Video search engines, P2P video file sharing, etc.
        • Competitive or complimentary to IPTV?
      • Regardless of the model, multimedia content is driving telecom
        • Wireline
        • Wireless
    • 23. Technology Shifts Impacting Market Evolution
      • Compression & format: MPEG2  MPEG4; SD  HD
        • More channels, lower bit rates
      • Access network: 1.5-3 Mbit/s  20-30+ Mbit/s; ATM  Ethernet/IP
        • Combination xDSL/FTTx
      • Aggregation network: ATM  GigE/10GigE, IP multicast, QOS
        • Right amount of aggregation layer intelligence?
      • IP edge: High density/capacity, Ethernet-centric, per-service QOS, unicast/multicast scale, integrated B-RAS, high-availability edge
      • Transport network: static/legacy  reconfigurable/multiservice
      • Services evolve: Broadcast TV  VOD  PVR/nPVR  integrated & interactive services
        • Mobile & IMS?
        • Internet TV?
    • 24. IPTV Market Evolution IPTV Inflection Points Subscriber Scale Integrated Services Integrated Communication, Information, Entertainment Focus on scaling number of IPTV subscribers and introducing “integrated services.” Also includes potential IMS Integration. Phase III: 2008 – 2010 Service Differentiation Basic Broadcast TV (IP Multicast) Initial, Limited VOD Focus on initial network & service layer infrastructure. Modest, controlled service rollouts. Basic service offerings. Phase I: 2004 - 2005 Technical Viability PVR, nPVR MPEG-4 HD Portfolio Expansion: More HD, VOD, PVR Focus on service assurance and QoE for existing services and continue adding new services: enhanced channel package, additional HD content, additional VOD content, subscription VOD, time-shifting. Phase II: 2006 – 2007 Quality of Experience Multicast to Unicast Service Mix
    • 25. End-to-End IPTV: A Brief Overview Video Serving Office (VSO) Broadband Access Network Infrastructure Broadband Aggregation Network Infrastructure Broadband Routing Network Infrastructure Super Head-End Office (SHO) Copper Metro Transport RG IP STB DSLAM OLT/ONU Video Hub Office (VHO) Multimedia Home Network Video Content Acquisition Broadcast Video VOD Server Complex Head-End System Middleware, CA/DRM Edge Router/ B-RAS Gigabit Ethernet Aggregation Regional/LH Transport Content Providers 20th Century Fox General Electric News Corp. Sony Time Warner Viacom Walt Disney Etc. National Video Head-End Office TELECOM OPERATOR Residential Subscriber Core Router an/.or Edge Router/ B-RAS Live and On Demand Content Acquired From Multiple Satellite and Terrestrial Broadcast Programming Sources. Edge Encoders Numerous Regional VHOs Receive National Content from SHOs and Ingest & Distribute Regional Content and IP VOD. Local VSOs Receive & Distribute Content from Upstream. Local Channels and Distributed VOD Also Served From VSO. Various Copper- and Fiber-based Access Networks In Place To Deliver IPTV to the Residential Subscriber. SP Controlled Subscriber Premise: ONT/NID, Residential Gateway, IP STB/DVR, PC, VoIP, In-Home Distribution Network Redundant National SHOs Ingest & Distribute IP-based Video Content. Centralized VOD Libraries May Exist. PC VoIP End-to-End Policy Control Content Owner/Aggregator Fiber OLT ONU ONT
    • 26. IPTV Bandwidth Requirements
      • Video
        • IPTV with MPEG2 compression
          • Standard Definition 3.5Mbps
          • High Definition 19.3Mbps
        • IPTV with MPEG4 compression
          • Standard Definition 2.0Mbps
          • High Definition 8.0Mbps
    • 27. Centralized Architectures? Broadband Access Network Broadband Aggregation Network Broadband Edge Network Residential Gateway n Homes Broadband Access Nodes Broadband Aggregation Switches/Routers Broadband Edge Router Policy Control Server Voice IP/MPLS Core B’cast Video VOD HSI
    • 28. Distributed Architectures? Broadband Access Network Broadband Aggregation Network Broadband Edge Network Residential Gateway n Homes Broadband Access Nodes Broadband Aggregation Switches/Routers Broadband Edge Router Policy Control Server Voice Regional/Local Video Content IP/MPLS Core B’cast Video VOD HSI
    • 29. Network Dimensioning Is Critical Broadband Access Broadband Aggregation Broadband Edge Residential Gateway n Homes Access Nodes GigE/10GigE Aggregation Switches/Routers Edge Router
      • Centralized Policy Management
      • Video CAC
      • Topology Intelligence
      • Quality Measurement
      Voice Distributed Policy Enforcement Regional/Local Video Content B’cast Video VOD HSI 1 2 3 4 VoIP IPTV HSI First Mile: Aggregate bandwidth needed for all services VOD B’cast Second Mile: Concurrent VOD sessions Non-blocking Multicast TV channels Third Mile: Max. concurrent VoD sessions Fourth Mile: Link bandwidth equals server capacity VOD controller limits total amount of streams VOD B’cast
    • 30. QOE Measurement
      • Accurate measurement of:
        • Overall video service quality
        • Usage per channel and viewer density
        • VoD concurrency, channel changes
        • User Quality of Experience
      • Is essential to:
        • Monitor SLAs and troubleshoot issues
        • Dimension capacity and tune VoD CAC
    • 31. “ IPTV2”: SureWest
      • Improved integration
      • Emerging standards
      • Next-Gen STBs
      • Improved compression
      • Improved QoS
      • Improved security
      • Interactive features
    • 32. IPTV Work in Progress
      • Home networking solutions
        • Ability to utilize existing home wiring
        • Wireless
      • Next-Gen STBs
        • SD, HD, PVR, Gateways
      • Content
      • Interactive applications
    • 33. Multimedia Home Networking Taxonomy Access Network Copper and/or Fiber Infrastructure: ADSL2plus, VDSL2, FTTx (Home Networking WAN Interfaces Integrated into NID and/or ONT) Ethernet Cable (CAT-5,6) Coaxial Cable (RG6, RG59) Twisted Pair Phoneline Electrical Powerline Air IEEE 802.3 HPNAv3 MoCA Proprietary HPNAv3 HomePlug AV Proprietary (UPA) IEEE 802.11x Network Connected Multimedia CPE: IP STB, DVR, Home Gateway, Media Bridges, PC/Laptop, Media Server, Gaming Console, Etc. (Other Critical Technologies: MPEG-4 Decoders, DRM S/W) Multimedia CPE UI Technologies: IPTV Browser, EPG, TV/PC Web Browser, Video Search and Navigation TR-064: LAN side CPE Mgmt WT-111: Remote Mgmt of home devices (TR-069 pass-thru) TR-069: WAN-side CPE Mgmt WT-135: STB Object model Physical Medium Standard/ Technology Home Devices Remote Mgmt. User Interface
    • 34. Thank You! Q&A

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