IPTV alone is not the killer app Multi-service is critical Price competition could kill profitability Providers must find away to differentiate their service long term Juniper: Controlling the customer experience is critical across multiple active services to the home New business models are possible with this control
Only 2% said it was more hype than hope Positive attitudes toward WiMax and its role in telecom networks cut across all service provider types. Long distance carriers were most positive, and carriers in AsiaPac Less than 10% going with pre-certified ie pre-Wimax products Almost one-third said definitely or probably use unlicensed spectrum Alvarion has established a clear lead with Intel the lead evangelizer
In total, 262 service provider professionals, representing more than 175 different wireless and wireline network operators worldwide, participated in the Heavy Reading survey.
Vendors developing Mobile WiMax systems have got a lot prove. So far, the technology is largely restricted to the lab and the standards-making bodies, and there are very few, if any, examples of system-level deployments. At a strategic level, the challenge is to position Mobile WiMax between wireless LAN, Fixed WiMax, and 3G cellular. In our view, therefore, the major market opportunity is for low-mobility, high-speed services. In this scenario, the user device would be a laptop or, possibly, a PDA. Coverage would be in a metro hotzone, suburb, or other well-bounded area, and users would be able to move between islands of coverage with a single account. Apart from rare exceptions (Korea), we don't expect to see nationwide, or even many city-wide, Mobile WiMax networks rolled out for mass-market services in either the near- or medium-term. The reason for this is that WiMax can best compete against cellular on data rate and price per bit, but not on mobile voice or coverage. As a result, handover between cells will be viewed as more luxury than necessity in most network deployments. Another reason to sacrifice mobility in favor of throughput is so that the same network infrastructure can efficiently support both fixed and portable customers – because, as noted, many of the enhancements in 802.16e also apply to fixed usage. Supporting both types of customer on one network vastly enhances the business case for network rollout. Furthermore, by the time Mobile WiMax is commercialized, it will be competing with enhanced 3G systems and will face a market-positioning battle with the next generation of cellular radio interfaces – and that's a roadmap expected to steal some of Mobile WiMax's best tricks. The conclusion, then, is that for all its promise, Mobile WiMax will have difficulty finding a market big enough to generate the economies of scale that will permit it to truly thrive.
Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading
The Evolution of Triple Play: VOIP, IMS, FMC, WiMAX, IPTV Triple Play Symposium 2006 Dallas, Boston, Paris
Heavy Reading has published numerous research reports, analyzing the current state of the technology & expected market development for topics including IPTV, VOIP, IMS, FMC, Carrier Ethernet, IP DSLAMs, ROADMs, Pseudowires, AdvancedTCA, Next-Gen SONET, etc.
Heavy Reading next-gen broadband/IPTV research 2005 and 2006:
IPTV and the Future of Telecom Video Network Architectures (6/05)
IP DSLAMs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (8/05)
MSAPs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (10/05)
IP Video and the New Broadband Edge (12/05)
DSL Gateways: Beyond the Router (2/06)
Multimedia Whole-Home Networking: Solving the IPTV Distribution Dilemma (4/06)
The Future of Internet TV: Emerging “Over-the-Top” Internet Video Services (planned Summer 2006)
Heavy Reading conducted interviews with hundreds of technology suppliers, service providers & investors with a direct interest in telecom-related topics.
Beyond Triple Play: Flexibility Is the Killer APP Wireless Backhaul Online Collaboration Video Telephony Info Services Sports, Games, Hobbies Video IP/PC TV Video on Demand Pay Per View Digital Video Recording Streaming Audio Radio Concerts Streaming Music Instant Messaging Fax Services Email Dynamic Bandwidth Upgrades Personal Storage Images, Video, Data Distributed Printing Photos, Etc. Info Services Financial, News, Travel Home Monitoring Entertainment Productivity/Reference Communications Personal Video Tiered VPN Security Anti-Virus Firewall SPAM URL Filtering Voice (VoIP) On-Line Gaming Downloads Real-Time Play Multiplayer Hosting
The 2006-2007 time period will be the most important period in FMC, IMS and NGN technology and service development.
For service providers, IMS's main appeal is its ability to provide more applications faster and at lower cost.
Fixed/mobile convergence is an important secondary motivator.
Although IMS is seen primarily as a mechanism for deploying revenue-generating applications, there is little agreement about which applications should be deployed first, and this lack of consensus may delay carrier implementations.
IMS is a complex specification, and there are gaps in the standards, especially around policy control and service creation.
There are strong parallels and linkages between IMS and two other emerging industry standardization movements: service delivery platforms and AdvancedTCA.
When IMS? Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider Technology Deployment Plans
IPTV Market Evolution IPTV Inflection Points Subscriber Scale Integrated Services Integrated Communication, Information, Entertainment Focus on scaling number of IPTV subscribers and introducing “integrated services.” Also includes potential IMS Integration. Phase III: 2008 – 2010 Service Differentiation Basic Broadcast TV (IP Multicast) Initial, Limited VOD Focus on initial network & service layer infrastructure. Modest, controlled service rollouts. Basic service offerings. Phase I: 2004 - 2005 Technical Viability PVR, nPVR MPEG-4 HD Portfolio Expansion: More HD, VOD, PVR Focus on service assurance and QoE for existing services and continue adding new services: enhanced channel package, additional HD content, additional VOD content, subscription VOD, time-shifting. Phase II: 2006 – 2007 Quality of Experience Multicast to Unicast Service Mix
End-to-End IPTV: A Brief Overview Video Serving Office (VSO) Broadband Access Network Infrastructure Broadband Aggregation Network Infrastructure Broadband Routing Network Infrastructure Super Head-End Office (SHO) Copper Metro Transport RG IP STB DSLAM OLT/ONU Video Hub Office (VHO) Multimedia Home Network Video Content Acquisition Broadcast Video VOD Server Complex Head-End System Middleware, CA/DRM Edge Router/ B-RAS Gigabit Ethernet Aggregation Regional/LH Transport Content Providers 20th Century Fox General Electric News Corp. Sony Time Warner Viacom Walt Disney Etc. National Video Head-End Office TELECOM OPERATOR Residential Subscriber Core Router an/.or Edge Router/ B-RAS Live and On Demand Content Acquired From Multiple Satellite and Terrestrial Broadcast Programming Sources. Edge Encoders Numerous Regional VHOs Receive National Content from SHOs and Ingest & Distribute Regional Content and IP VOD. Local VSOs Receive & Distribute Content from Upstream. Local Channels and Distributed VOD Also Served From VSO. Various Copper- and Fiber-based Access Networks In Place To Deliver IPTV to the Residential Subscriber. SP Controlled Subscriber Premise: ONT/NID, Residential Gateway, IP STB/DVR, PC, VoIP, In-Home Distribution Network Redundant National SHOs Ingest & Distribute IP-based Video Content. Centralized VOD Libraries May Exist. PC VoIP End-to-End Policy Control Content Owner/Aggregator Fiber OLT ONU ONT
Centralized Architectures? Broadband Access Network Broadband Aggregation Network Broadband Edge Network Residential Gateway n Homes Broadband Access Nodes Broadband Aggregation Switches/Routers Broadband Edge Router Policy Control Server Voice IP/MPLS Core B’cast Video VOD HSI
Distributed Architectures? Broadband Access Network Broadband Aggregation Network Broadband Edge Network Residential Gateway n Homes Broadband Access Nodes Broadband Aggregation Switches/Routers Broadband Edge Router Policy Control Server Voice Regional/Local Video Content IP/MPLS Core B’cast Video VOD HSI
Network Dimensioning Is Critical Broadband Access Broadband Aggregation Broadband Edge Residential Gateway n Homes Access Nodes GigE/10GigE Aggregation Switches/Routers Edge Router
Centralized Policy Management
Voice Distributed Policy Enforcement Regional/Local Video Content B’cast Video VOD HSI 1 2 3 4 VoIP IPTV HSI First Mile: Aggregate bandwidth needed for all services VOD B’cast Second Mile: Concurrent VOD sessions Non-blocking Multicast TV channels Third Mile: Max. concurrent VoD sessions Fourth Mile: Link bandwidth equals server capacity VOD controller limits total amount of streams VOD B’cast