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  • 1. Trends in VoIP Development August 4, 2005 Michael Stanford Intel Corporation
  • 2. Summary
    • VoIP is flourishing, driven by multiple forces:
      • IMS
      • Smarter clients
      • Fixed/Mobile convergence (IMS + dual mode phones)
      • Broadband deployment and evolution
    • VoIP is old news. Long live “Services over IP.”
      • SoIP is more than a “Low cost PSTN replacement”
      • Wideband audio, video, IM, PTT, presence, collaboration
    • Open networks, open source and standard environments accelerate innovation
    • Regulation continues to be a wild-card
  • 3. The VoIP Revolution Marches On
    • Carriers have moved to VoIP, driven by data bandwidth demands, as well as CapEx and OpEx pressures
    • Enterprise phone sales crossed over in 2005
    • Cellular industry is committed to SIP for 3G on IMS – the wireline industry is following
    • Skype* phenomenon continues – Skype Out*, Skype In*, Skype Video, Skype API extensions, 140M downloads…
    Microsoft launches Communicator 2005 FCC issues E911 warning requirement for VoIP BEA launches WebLogic Communications Platform BT launches Fusion FCC rules “entirely Internet-based VoIP” an “unregulated information service.” 2005 in review Japanese government urges end of PSTN by 2007 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
  • 4. Voice Service is Cellular Service
    • Dual Mode Cell Phone Shipments:
    • ~100 M in 2010
    Source: European Information Technology Observatory Source: ABI Research 2Q 2005 Cell Phones Connect to Fixed Network Industry consolidation drives FMC Low estimate High estimate Europe US World Subscribers in millions Cellular Wireline
  • 5. Data Phones Overtake Voice Phones…. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 High-End/ Enterprise High-Tier Mid-Range Low-End Source: IDC, February 2005
  • 6. Bandwidth Source: EITO 2005 special study 300M BB subscribers WW by 2008 Cable DSL BWA DELL’ORO Group, Access Forecast Tables, January 2004 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Broadband + QoS catalyze new usages iTown Communications announced in July 2005 that they plan to deploy ultra-broadband – 100 Mbits/sec to rural areas. Source: Ovum-RHK
  • 7. WiMax accelerates broadband availability ’ 05 Fixed Trials Begin ’ 06-’07 Notebook Integration and Early Mobile Trials ’ 08-’10 Global Network Rollout ’ 07-’08 Phones and Early Mobile Network Rollout WiMax evolves to broadband mobility
  • 8. VoIP is the Beachhead to “Services over IP (SoIP)”
    • The technologies underlying VoIP (RTP, SIP, QoS, IMS) support more than just voice:
      • High quality (wide-band) audio
      • Video
        • Video mail/messaging, video portals, video caller ID, video CRBT, video in contact centers, push-to-video, distance learning, video conferencing, IPTV…
      • Instant Messaging
      • Push to Talk
      • Presence
      • Document sharing
      • Rich collaboration
      • Rapid innovation of new features and new service combinations
    VoIP is the baseline feature that opens the door to new revenue-producing services “ The broadband revolution is not just about cheap voice: it is about service innovation. The revolution is about…new and compelling ways to use a network.” Ovum-RHK, January 2005
  • 9. Evolution of Network and Service Models Servers Clients Clients Servers Clients Old Ma Bell Some MNOs Enterprise TEMs Current ILECs MSOs Internet Vonage/Skype MVNOs Closed Open Servers IP enables open networks
  • 10. Open Networks accelerate innovation
    • Multi-modal Clients
    J2EE* or .NET App Server Environment Voice Services (IMS) DSL Entertainment Services WWW VCC Services (IMS) IP Connectivity Access Network (IP-CAN) Cable WiMax PSTN GSM GPRS 3G Email Wi-Fi Wi-Fi Wi-Fi Opportunity: New Services Opportunity: New Applications IMS allows billed services on open networks
  • 11. Clouds on the Horizon Managed Network Servers Clients “ Parasitic” Services Managed Network Network owners are motivated to block third party services Internet Telmex alleged to block VoIP Vonage says that Telmex may identify VoIP users based on the kind of traffic they send, then choke their bandwidth to disrupt the calls. Vodafone blocks VoIP: On July 13, 2005, Vodafone’s German operation announced that they intend to block third party VoIP traffic on their network starting in July 2007. Madison River unblocks VoIP On March 3, 2005, the FCC approved a consent decree under which Madison River Telephone Company of Mebane, N.C., paid a $15,000 fine, and agreed to refrain from preventing customers from using VoIP by port blocking or any other means. Verizon cripples Bluetooth Verizon disabled some of the Bluetooth profiles on the Motorola V710 handset, triggering a class action lawsuit filed December 30, 2004 by Kirtland & Packard LLP.
  • 12. IMS and Dual-Mode Handsets Drive Fixed/Mobile Convergence (FMC)
    • IP multimedia subsystem (IMS) can be accessed by any IP connectivity access network
    • The same IMS service infrastructure can run over the PSTN, BB fixed VoIP, and cellular access networks
    • The multi-service gateway (MSG) includes an analog terminal adapter (ATA), so you can plug in a conventional phone
    • The dual-mode cell phone uses Wi-Fi either as a cordless phone with fixed VoIP service or for network offload for cellular service
    PSTN/ SS7 IMS Wi-Fi MSG Opportunity: FMC Enables numerous new services IP-CAN Cellular BB/WiMAX
  • 13. Voice is Just Another Service on IP Networks
    • J2EE
      • BEA WebLogic* Communications Platform runs on IMS
    • .NET
      • Microsoft* Live Communications Server
    So use the same powerful development and deployment environments already familiar to countless web developers: Standardization speeds service creation and deployment
  • 14. Where to Next?
    • VoIP is old news – SoIP is where it’s at!
    • VoIP is just another application for IP – implement it with Web architectures
    • Opportunities abound for developers:
      • Fixed/mobile convergence
      • Video
      • Rich collaboration
      • Location-based services
      • Usability enhancements
    www.intel.com/go/VoIP , www.intel.com/go/ims
  • 15. Thank You! Copyright © Intel Corporation 2005. Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries. *Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others. All rights reserved. 00-9772-001 07/05