Doc12-IDC MENA.ppt


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  • Overview of general trends in the global market  Competition has become the norm Broadband services is developing fast NGN Key concerns in wireline? -          Declining growth in traffic and spending -          Substitution from mobile services  drive in data services (IP network) Key concerns in wireless? -          Declining ARPU in some markets -          Need for new growth opportunities in spending  data? (SMS, MMS, Internet)   Key for growth is in building network that can support faster data transmission  DSL, FTTX, 3G, HSDPA/HSUPA, WiMAX This drives new and innovative services to the market: Voice is STILL number one value driver of telecommunication services   With the demand to seek new growth opportunities, operators are creating new and innovative services: -          For businesses: telecoms/IT convergence, such as CRM, enterprise mobility etc. -          For consumers: Triple Play, increasing the share of wallet from consumers’ In future: unified communications; fixed mobile convergence
  • Mixed approaches in MENA: Incumbent only VoIP provisioning Licensed VoIP
  • Slide 8: Development of VoIP regulations in MENA
  • Slide 10: Different business models in implementing VoIP
  • Slide 11: Business models in MENA
  • Slide 11: Impact towards the market operators
  • Slide 12: Impact towards competition
  • Slide 13: TDM vs. VoBB (sample country forecast)
  • Slide 14: Summary
  • Doc12-IDC MENA.ppt

    1. 1. Dynamics of VoIP Services in Middle East and North Africa Regional Seminar on Internet Protocol: VoIP ITU Arab Regional Office, Algiers, Algeria 19-20 March 2007 Said Irfan, Senior Analyst, Services, Communications Group, MEA, IDC MEA
    2. 2. Agenda <ul><li>IDC Definition </li></ul><ul><li>General Regulatory and Market Trends </li></ul><ul><li>VoIP Development in MENA </li></ul><ul><li>Way Forward: Telecoms of the Future </li></ul><ul><li>Essential Guidance </li></ul>
    3. 3. IDC Definition of VoIP Services <ul><li>Based on and carried over an Internet protocol (IP) network. </li></ul><ul><li>Voice traffic sent over a public managed IP network or the Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Designed to complement or compete with public switched telephone network (PSTN) traffic. </li></ul><ul><li>Can be operated by a service provider such as a next-generation telco, a public telephony operator (PTO), or an Internet service provider (ISP). </li></ul>
    4. 4. Agenda <ul><li>IDC Definition </li></ul><ul><li>General Regulatory and Market Trends </li></ul><ul><li>VoIP Development in MENA </li></ul><ul><li>Way Forward: Telecoms of the Future </li></ul><ul><li>Essential Guidance </li></ul>
    5. 5. Key Drivers of Telecom Markets Summary of Service Trends Monopoly Competition Narrowband Broadband Traditional Networks Next Gen. Networks Telecoms Telecoms/IT Convergence Wireline Mobile Convergence Voice Data Triple Play + + + Quadruple Play– “Triple Play on the Move” New Opportunities in IP
    6. 6. Competitive Landscape in MENA - 2007 Semi-competitive Competitive Monopoly Data Services Leased Circuits National Trans-mission Services Broadband Cross-Ownership Mobile Services Internet Access Services Telephony Services Cross-Ownership Cross-Ownership Cross-Ownership Cross-Ownership 2007 2007 Cross-Ownership Cross-Ownership 2007 Cross-Ownership Int’l Transmission Services Data/ Internet Only 2007 Competition and Liberalization taking hold in MENA Bahrain Saudi Arabia Kuwait UAE Egypt Jordan Morocco Oman Algeria 2007 2007 Qatar 2007
    7. 7. Regulations enabling VoIP in MENA <ul><li>Algeria </li></ul><ul><ul><li>VoIP allowed since 2004 (ISPs: EEPAD’s Assilabox, SLC ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Egypt </li></ul><ul><ul><li>National VoIP licenses for Enterprise Intra-WAN awarded to NSP Class A’s </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bahrain </li></ul><ul><ul><li>National Fixed Services License (NFL). Tech Neutral allows VoIP (e.g. Batelco, Etisalcom, Lightspeed etc ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>International Telecommunications Services License (ISL) (e.g. Batelco, Etisalcom, Lightspeed etc ) Tech Neutral Allows VoIP. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>UAE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Full Service licensees Etisalat & du . No other licenses expected until 2015. Possible announcement on VoIP by TRA in 2007/2008. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>KSA </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New facilities based fixed telephony licensee expected to be issued in 2007, and start operations in 2008. Regulations on VoIP expected to be clarified on operation launch. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Jordan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Jordan Telecom launched LiveBox in August 2005 </li></ul></ul>
    8. 8. Agenda <ul><li>IDC Definition </li></ul><ul><li>General Regulatory and Market Trends </li></ul><ul><li>VoIP Development in MENA </li></ul><ul><li>Way Forward: Telecoms of the Future </li></ul><ul><li>Essential Guidance </li></ul>
    9. 9. Incumbent’s Dilemma – Wireline Decline Driver for new converged platforms and services <ul><ul><li>Weakness in telephony </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Voice goes mobile </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data and Internet services picking up in Wireline market, but not mitigating PSTN revenue decline </li></ul></ul>Source:/Notes: IDC, 2006 Driver for IP services ! Fixed-Mobile Substitution Effect Multi-mode Devices 2004 2006 2010 Fixed-Mobile Convergence Wireless Wireline Convenience of one Lower Costs One provider One bill One address book One handset One mailbox (UMS) One number? All IP Networks Standard-based, IMS, SIP Mobile over WiFi The BT Bluephone project is considered the trailblazer of convergence today. The project was announced in mid-2004 and is still a showcase of FMC with a commercial launch due early in 2005.
    10. 10. The hype has been consumer VoIP Broadband & the ‘Skype’ Effect Representative ME Country Actual Data 56% CAGR Narrowband to Broadband Drives VoIP Usage Source:/Notes: IDC, 2005
    11. 11. And consumer “Triple Play” e.g. iTunes, WoW, TIVO, “Sahm” <ul><ul><li>Service bundling: Voice, Video/TV, data/Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>VAS drives adoption: VoD, gaming on demand, UMS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Operators launching/trialing/studying: Etisalat, Qtel, Lightspeed, Telecom Egypt, Jordan Telecom, Algeria Telecom, IAM, etc </li></ul></ul>Representative ME Country Actual Data Source:/Notes: IDC, 2006
    12. 12. VoIP growing in the Enterprise Current Installations vs. intended future investments N=272 Base= Not currently installed in both HQ & Branch offices 0 50 100 Hosted VOIP Services Traditional Centrex IP PBX Traditional PBX 0 50 100 Traditional Centrex (n=142) Traditional PBX (n=228) Hosted VOIP Services (n=97) IP PBX (n=258) Installed & Using Likely to install over 12 months Source:/Notes: IDC 2005 IP Telephony Survey Yes No Don't know
    13. 13. Top 3 Reasons Enterprise using IP Voice 0 20 40 60 80 N=216 Today the focus is on cost savings Custom Apps will drive this market for the next 5 years Q: What are the three most important reasons your company has installed or is planning to install an IP PBX? Now Future Source:/Notes: IDC 2005 IP Telephony Survey Using one telephone system for several offices Saving money on long distance charges Strategic voice data applications Ability to use one wiring system, not two Costs about the same as trad PBX Costs less than a traditional PBX to operate Costs less than traditional PBX hardware Other
    14. 14. Spending on VoIP 2005-2010 Representative ME Country <ul><li>Expected Competition in the market </li></ul><ul><li>Substantial expatriate population </li></ul><ul><li>Very fast broadband adoption </li></ul><ul><li>NGN deployment </li></ul><ul><li>Expected Bundle of VoBB with other services </li></ul><ul><li>VoBB as secondary line to TDM (tied in with ADSL subscription) </li></ul>Source:/Notes: IDC, 2007 Voice Telephony Spending (US$million)
    15. 15. Agenda <ul><li>IDC Definition </li></ul><ul><li>General Regulatory and Market Trends </li></ul><ul><li>VoIP Development in MENA </li></ul><ul><li>Way Forward: Telecoms of the Future </li></ul><ul><li>Essential Guidance </li></ul>
    16. 16. Silos of communications Enterprise Voice Network Voice Mobile telephony & messaging Web/Email Messaging Data Network Video Video Network Public Switched Telephone Network Cellular Network
    17. 17. By converging silos onto a common network transport protocol new opportunities arise… Voice Choice of User interface IP Network Combined Voice, Video, Data IP Mobile telephony Video Messaging Web/Email
    18. 18. Essential Guidance <ul><li>VoIP is here to stay </li></ul><ul><li>Develop competencies outside core services…and/or start building partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Enact regulations that balance service innovation and market development </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunities abound for networks beyond transport and access, i.e. Enterprise Network Upgrades </li></ul>
    19. 19. Questions? <ul><li>Email: </li></ul>