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Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
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Naea 12-12 (2)

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  • 1. Return on Investment MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
  • 2. Pending Home Sales105100 95 90 85 80 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NAR 11/2012
  • 3. Pending Home Sales105 100 = Historically Healthy Level10095 October 2011 – October 20129085 October 2010 – October 201180 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NAR 11/2012
  • 4. Single Family Sales (year-over-year) NAR 11/2012
  • 5. Condo & Co-op Sales (year-over-year) NAR 11/2012
  • 6. $1M+ Home Sales (year-over-year) NAR 11/2012
  • 7. New Home Sales Calculated Risk 12/1/2012
  • 8. New Construction Calculated Risk 12/1/2012
  • 9. Household Formations Average Annual Formations in Thousands1,4001,200 1,250 1,1501,000 800 600 650 400 200 0 During Boom Years 2008-2011 Last 12 Months Census Bureau 11/2012
  • 10. Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed5.25 54.75 4.54.25 43.75 3.53.25 1/01/2011 Today Federal Reserve
  • 11. 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 30 Year Mortgage Rates 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Freddie Mac
  • 12. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NAR 11/2012
  • 13. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 11/2012
  • 14. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices4.0% 3.6%3.0% Year-over-Year Change in Prices 2.0%2.0% 1.1%1.0% 0.6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May0.0% Jun Jul Aug Sept-1.0% -0.5%-2.0% -1.7%-3.0% -2.5%-4.0% -3.5% -3.9%-5.0% S&P Case Shiller 11/2012
  • 15. Single Family Prices (year-over-year) NAR 11/2012
  • 16. Condo & Co-op Prices (year-over-year) NAR 11/2012
  • 17. FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 3Q HPI Report
  • 18. FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 11/2012
  • 19. Impact of Foreclosures on Prices Clear Capital 11/8/2012
  • 20. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales35% 35%30%25% 24%20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct NAR 10/2012
  • 21. Home Prices in the Short Term“The monthly Case-Shiller houseprice indexes will show month-to-month declines soon, probablystarting with the October report tobe released in late December. TheCoreLogic Index has already startedto decline on a month-to-monthbasis. This is not a sign ofimpending doom or another collapsein house prices - it is just the normalseasonal pattern.” Calculated Risk 12/1/2012
  • 22. Home Prices in the Short Term“We project a small, short-termprice decline for many marketsthat recently experienceddouble-digit appreciation.”David Stiff, Chief Economist of Fiserv Fiserv 11/28/2012
  • 23. Home Prices in the Short Term150.00 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13145.00 PRO JEC T ED140.00135.00130.00 n g pt ct n b ay ly ov ec ar ril Ju Au Ja Fe Ju Ap O Se M N D M S&P Case Shiller 11/2012
  • 24. Cost vs. Price
  • 25. ‘CFPB’ “Like a neighborhood cop on the beat, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) supervises banks, credit unions, and other financial companies, and we will enforce Federal consumer financial laws.”CFPB Website
  • 26. The ‘Perfect Storm’ of RegulationThe Qualified Mortgage (QM) rule - part of the Dodd-Frank WallStreet Reform Act - gives a borrower the right to sue if they received aloan that courts deemed the borrower did not have the ability to repay.The Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) requires lenders to keepa 5 percent capital cushion on certain loans they make so that if aloan goes belly up, a lender has some skin in the game, too.Basel III will mandate how much capital banks have to keep on handfor all their mortgage-related business.All the uncertainty surrounding the ultimate form these importantregulations will take has kept banks hesitant to lend. US News & World Report 11/7/2012
  • 27. FHA Mortgages“There are concerns thatimpending new rules inthe mortgage market,dictated by Dodd-Frankfinancial reform, willmake the overall loanmarket more expensiveand drive more borrowersto the FHA.”Diana Olick CNBC11/16/2012
  • 28. FHA Mortgages“The FHA is now facing billions of dollars oflosses on loans originated between 2007and 2009. To help bolster its finances, theagency recently announced a series ofmeasures including higher annual insurancepremiums and a change to rules thatallowed insurance premiums to lapse.Typical borrowers have to pay an up-frontinsurance premium of 1.75% of the loanamount and, starting in 2013, a higherannual premium of 1.35% of the balance, upfrom 1.25%, says Keith Gumbinger, vicepresident at HSH.com.” Wall Street Journal 11/24/2012
  • 29. Impact of New Regulations “We find using conservative economic assumptions that the bottom line effects of proposed Dodd-Frank and Basel III regulations may include up to 20 percent fewer loans, resulting in 600,000 fewer home sales.”American Forum 10/2012
  • 30. Impact of New Regulations“Borrowers who fail to meet the basic criteria for a qualifiedresidential mortgage will have a harder time finding a loan,when compared to borrowers who do meet those criteria.They might end up paying a higher interest rate, as well…Financial analysts from J.P. Morgan Securities haveestimated that borrowers might pay up to threepercentage points more for loansthat are subject to risk-retention.*”*loans that don’t meet the definitionof a qualified residential mortgage QualifiedResidentialMortgage.org 11/2012
  • 31. ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link Pending Home Sales, Single Family Sales,3,4,5,6 http://www.realtor.org Condo & Co-op Sales, $1M+ Home Sales8,9 New Home Sales, New Construction www.calculatedriskblog.com PAID SUBSCRIPTION -10 Older Households More Likely to Own http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?cid=23544411 Household Formations http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204707104578095223920995426.html12 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms14 Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldocu15 S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices17 Single Family Prices www.realtor.org18 Condo & Co-Op Prices www.realtor.org20 FHFA State Home Prices http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/24216/q22012hpi.pdf KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 32. ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link21 Impact on Foreclosures on Prices http://www.clearcapital.com/company/MarketReport.cfm?month=November&year=201222 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org23 Home Prices in the Short Term www.calculatedriskblog.com24 Home Prices in the Short Term http://investors.fiserv.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=723656 http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?25 Home Prices in the Short Term indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----27 CFPB http://www.consumerfinance.gov http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/home-front/2012/11/07/5-housing-issues-hanging-in-the-28 The ‘Perfect Storm’ of Regulation balance-going-into-obamas-2nd-term29 FHA Mortgages http://www.cnbc.com/id/49856477/To_Stem_Losses_FHA_Mortgages_Get_More_Expensive30 FHA Mortgages http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323353204578128810214676692.html31 Impact of New Regulations http://americanactionforum.org/sites/default/files/Regulation_and_Housing.pdf32 Impact of New Regulations http://www.qualifiedresidentialmortgage.org/criteria.php KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 33. You getto decide.

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