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Naea 07-14

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  • www.realtor.org/
  • http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/06/13/existing-home-sales-by-price-tier/#sf3291580
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • https://magic.piktochart.com/output/2155255-foot-traffic-may-2014?sf3290807=1
  • http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/30441-nomura-fear-is-keeping-demand-pent-up
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/news/blog/christina_boyle/20140616_mortgage_down_payments.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/news/blog/christina_boyle/20140616_mortgage_down_payments.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/news/blog/christina_boyle/20140616_mortgage_down_payments.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/June_2014_public_outlook.pdf
    http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/88467_.pdf
    http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_062414.pdf
    http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/phs-06-30/forecast-07-2014-us-economic-outlook-06-30-2014.pdf
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/June_2014_public_outlook.pdf
    http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/88467_.pdf
    http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_062414.pdf
    http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/phs-06-30/forecast-07-2014-us-economic-outlook-06-30-2014.pdf
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/June_2014_public_outlook.pdf
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140324_dirt_cheap_to_cheap.html
  • http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/CSHomePrice_Release_April2014-results.pdf
  • http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/CSHomePrice_Release_April2014-results.pdf
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • www.realtor.org
  • http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/06/24/may-new-home-sales/11304161/
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/06/comments-on-housing-and-new-home-sales.html
  • http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2014/06/18/builders-turn-agents-in-finding-qualified-buyers#sf3351519
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers-housing-tenure-decisions
  • http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2014/06/more-people-saying-less-and-a-few-people-saying-more.html
  • Transcript

    • 1. KCM Divided into Three Sections
    • 2. 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 Jan 2012 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2013 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May EXISTING Home Sales NAR 6/2014
    • 3. $0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % Sales +/- -12% -5.1% 0.2% 0.3% 2.4% 5% -12% -5.1% .2% .3% 2.4% 5% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% % Change in Sales From Last Year by Price Range NAR 6/13/2014
    • 4. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 11% 18% NAR 6/2014
    • 5. 90 95 100 105 110 100 = Historically Healthy Level NAR 6/2014 PENDING Home Sales
    • 6. 50.6 51.2 50 50.6 47.8 27.7 19.3 26.2 43.9 46.1 44.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 July 2013 August 2013 Septembet 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales) realtor.org
    • 7. “It’s not that Millennials and other potential homebuyers aren’t qualified in terms of their credit scores or in how much they have saved for their down payment. It’s that they think they’re not qualified or they think that they don’t have a big enough down payment.” Housing Wire Commenting on a Study by Nomura
    • 8. The DOWN PAYMENT Biggest Misconception about Mortgages 39% 38% 42% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% All Respondents 25-29 Year Olds 30-34 Year Olds Percentage of respondents to Zelman & Assoc survey who believe that you need a minimum of a 15% down payment to purchase a home. Freddie Mac 6/2014
    • 9. The DOWN PAYMENT According to Freddie Mac: •A person “can get a conforming, conventional mortgage with a down payment of as little as 5 percent (sometimes with as little as 3 percent coming out of their own pockets)”. •Freddie Mac's purchase of mortgages with down payments under 10 percent more than quadrupled between 2009 and 2013. •More than one in five borrowers who took out conforming, conventional mortgages in 2014 put down 10 percent or less. Freddie Mac 6/2014
    • 10. Letting more consumers know how down payments are determined could bring more qualified borrowers off the sidelines. Depending on their credit history and other factors, many borrowers can expect to make a down payment of about 5 or 10 percent. Christina Boyle Freddie Mac VP and Head of Single-Family Sales & Relationship Management
    • 11. 3.25 3.5 3.75 4 4.25 4.5 4.75 Freddie Mac Actual Rates January 2013 – July 2014 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Freddie Mac 6/2014
    • 12. 5.2 4.7 5.1 5.4 Freddie Mac Fannie Mae MBA NAR 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Actual Rates January 2013 – June 2014 Projected Rates June 2014 – 2015 4Q 1/2013 6/2014 10/2015
    • 13. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 2015 3Q Fannie Mae 4.6% Freddie Mac 4.8% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.1% National Assoc of Realtors 5.3% 6/2014
    • 14. 1/2013 6/2014 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2015 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q Freddie Mac Projected Rates June 2014 – 2015 4Q Freddie Mac 6/2014 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Freddie Mac Rates January 2013 – June 2014
    • 15. Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I** Today $250,000 4.17% $1,218.17 July 2015 $260,000 4.8% $1,364.13 *Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment $145.42Difference in Monthly Payment Monthly Annually Over 30 Years $145.42 $1,745.04 $52,351
    • 16. Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I** Today $100,000 4.17% $487.27 July 2015 $104,000 4.8% $545.65 *Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment $58.38Difference in Monthly Payment Monthly Annually Over 30 Years $58.38 $700.56 $21,017
    • 17. Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I** Today $500,000 4.17% $2,436.34 July 2015 $520,000 4.8% $2,728.26 *Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment $291.92Difference in Monthly Payment Monthly Annually Over 30 Years $291.92 $3,503.04 $105,091
    • 18. Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I** Today $1,000,000 4.17% $4,872.68 July 2015 $1,040,000 4.8% $5,456.52 *Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment $583.84Difference in Monthly Payment Monthly Annually Over 30 Years $583.84 $7,006.08 $210,182
    • 19. Decade Average Rate Payment 1970s 8.86% $1,589 1980s 12.7% $2,166 1990s 8.12% $1,484 2000s 6.29% $1,237 July 2014 4.17% $975 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rates and the approximate payment for a $200,000 mortgage. Payments are principal & interest only, based on a $200,000 fully amortizing mortgage. All terms are assumed to be 30 years. Freddie Mac 7/2014 Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade
    • 20. PRICES
    • 21. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 6/2014
    • 22. Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES Case Shiller S&P Case Shiller 6/2014
    • 23. The Impact of Monthly Housing Inventory on Home Prices LESS THAN 6 MONTHS BETWEEN 6-7 MONTHS GREATER THAN 7 MONTHS SELLERS MARKET Homes prices will appreciate NEUTRAL MARKET Homes prices will only appreciate with inflation BUYERS MARKET Homes prices will depreciate
    • 24. 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 6/2014
    • 25. 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 6/2014
    • 26. 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.7 5.6 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 6/2014
    • 27. -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May % -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% NAR 6/2014 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
    • 28. 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 New Home Sales 2004-2014 Census Bureau 6/2014
    • 29. Realtor Magazine 6/2014 67% 33% Purchasers brought to builder by real estate agents Purchasers brought by other means NEW HOME Sales
    • 30. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 4,6,7,27,28, 29,30 Existing Home Sales, Percentage of Distressed Property Sales, Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory of Homes for Sale, Year-over-Year Inventory Levels http://www.realtor.org/ 5 % Change in Sales from Last Year http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/06/13/existing-home-sales-by-price-tier/#sf3291580 8 Foot Traffic https://magic.piktochart.com/output/2155255-foot-traffic-may-2014?sf3290807=1 9 Housing Wire Comments http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/30441-nomura-fear-is-keeping-demand-pent-up 10,11 The Down Payment, Christina Boyle Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/news/blog/christina_boyle/20140616_mortgage_down_payments.html 13 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 14, 15 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages, Mortgage Rate Predictions http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/June_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/88467_.pdf http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_062414.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/phs-06-30/forecast-07-2014-us-econom 16 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/June_2014_public_outlook.pdf 17 Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140324_dirt_cheap_to_cheap.html 24,25 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/CSHomePrice_Release_April2014- results.pdf 31 New Home Sales 2004-2014 http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/06/24/may-new-home-sales/11304161/ KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
    • 31. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 32 New Home Sales 2013 and 2014 http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/06/comments-on-housing-and-new-home-sales.html 33 New Home Sales http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2014/06/18/builders-turn-agents-in-finding-qualified- buyers#sf3351519 39-61 Reasons to Own http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers- housing-tenure-decisions 62 Seth Godin Quote http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2014/06/more-people-saying-less-and-a-few-people- saying-more.html KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
    • 32. Webinar LIVE WEBINAR Thursday, July 24th - 2PM EST
    • 33. 15 ‘MAJOR’ REASONS TO OWN A HOME as per a survey by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University * the reasons are in no particular order
    • 34. EXTRA SLIDES Alternate Versions of select “Reasons to Own” Graphics
    • 35. It's much easier to spend a lot of time making your microphone louder than it is working on making your message more compelling. Seth Godin