This map outlines the total expenditures
that result from a single home sale.
Total Economic Impact of a Home Sale
KCM Divided into
Three Sections
Existing Home Sales
NAR 4/2014
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 4/2014
Bill McBride
Calculated Risk
A decline in existing home sales doesn't
mean the housing recovery is over. Far from
it! We n...
Total Sales Year-Over-Year: 12 Month Sum
% increase or decrease in current 12 months of
total sales over the prior 12 mont...
FreddieMac
Housing is stronger today
than at any point since the
Great Recession began
and hit bottom in 2009.
50%
16% 13%
Housing Starts House Prices Home Sales
Improvement in
Housing since
bottom in 2009
FreddieMac 4/2014
FreddieMac 4/2014
20%
3%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Housing Starts Home Sales
Projections for
Housing in 2014
Has your interest in purchasing a
home increased over the last year?
Millennial Buyers
Yes – 59%
Move-up Buyers
Yes – 45%
...
Americans still aspire to buy second homes
and have contributed to the growth of the
market consistently since its bottom ...
30%
24% 24%
14%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Real Estate Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Bonds
Best Long Term Investmen...
Gallup 4/2014
25% 24% 23%
21%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Real Estate Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Gold Bonds
Best Long Term Investmen...
30%
28%
23%
10%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Real Estate Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Bonds
Best Long Term Investmen...
Best Long Term Investment
By Income Category
28%
26%
38%
31%
26%
18%
13%
25%
30%
17%
16%
7%7%
6%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
...
PRICES
“We leave our 2014
projections for home
prices (up 5-7% for the
year) unchanged.”
Morgan Stanley
“Our base case
projection...
CoreLogic 3/2014
“Home prices nationwide remain
16.9% below their peak, which
was set in April 2006.”
Prices Compared to Peak w/ Date of Peak
% of Respondents Reporting
Appraisal Problems
34%
31%
29%
24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Realtors C...
Appraisal Issues/Problems
March 2014
Realtors Confidence Index 4/2014
Distressed Properties
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja...
Foreclosure Inventory by State
Months of Shadow Inventory
Share of Mortgages with Negative Equity
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
51.3
34.9
4.3
65.4
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – May 2014
MSNMoney.com, Case Shiller
-24%
-20.8%
-16.8%
-14%
-13%
-7.6%
-5%
-6.2%
1.8% 0.9%
5%
1.6%
7.3%
5.3%
3.2%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan Feb Ma...
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-...
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
Dec Jan Feb Mar
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 4/2014
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar...
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
S&P Case Shiller 4/2014
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 4/2014
3.25
3.5
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
2013 - 2014
30 Year Fixed
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac 4/2014
Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst Projected Rate
2015 2Q
Fannie Mae 4.9%
Freddie Mac 5.3%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.2%
Nati...
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
2 Total Economic Impact of a Home Sale http://www.realtor.org/reports/state-by-state-econ...
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
32 Return on Investment
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller...
To provide value, real estate
agents must not only provide
information but also insights
into that information.
Guy Kawasa...
It not about having the dots.
It’s about connecting
the dots!!
Seth Godin
Author, Entrepreneur,
Marketer and Public Speaker
Gallup 4/2014
Naea 05-14
Naea 05-14
Naea 05-14
Naea 05-14
Naea 05-14
Naea 05-14
Naea 05-14
Naea 05-14
Naea 05-14
Naea 05-14
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Naea 05-14

137
-1

Published on

Published in: Real Estate
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
137
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • http://www.realtor.org/reports/state-by-state-economic-impact-of-real-estate-activity
  • www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/04/comments-on-housing-and-existing-home.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
  • http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx#
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140410_springforward_housingforecast.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140410_springforward_housingforecast.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140410_springforward_housingforecast.html
  • http://pultegroupinc.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2014/PulteGroup-Home-Index-Survey-Americans-Appetite-To-Buy-New-Homes-Increases-As-View-On-Economy-Trends-More-Positive/default.aspx
  • http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/datanotes/pdf/housing-insights-040714.pdf
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • http://www.housingwire.com/articles/29815-wall-street-home-price-appreciation-still-expected-to-hit-7
  • http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic-hpi-february-2014.pdf
  • http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/MARCH-2014-RCI.pdf
  • http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/MARCH-2014-RCI.pdf
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx#
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
    http://money.msn.com/
  • www.realtor.org
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/83930_cshomeprice-release-0325.pdf?force_download=true
  • https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/83930_cshomeprice-release-0325.pdf?force_download=true
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf
    http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf
    http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf
    http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-1-2014-us-economic-outlook-12-30-2013.pdf
  • LeadingRE Conference 2014
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • Naea 05-14

    1. 1. This map outlines the total expenditures that result from a single home sale. Total Economic Impact of a Home Sale
    2. 2. KCM Divided into Three Sections
    3. 3. Existing Home Sales NAR 4/2014
    4. 4. 100 = Historically Healthy Level Pending Home Sales NAR 4/2014
    5. 5. Bill McBride Calculated Risk A decline in existing home sales doesn't mean the housing recovery is over. Far from it! We need to look at the composition of sales (distressed vs. conventional). The percent of conventional sales are increasing. That is a positive sign.
    6. 6. Total Sales Year-Over-Year: 12 Month Sum % increase or decrease in current 12 months of total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales
    7. 7. FreddieMac Housing is stronger today than at any point since the Great Recession began and hit bottom in 2009.
    8. 8. 50% 16% 13% Housing Starts House Prices Home Sales Improvement in Housing since bottom in 2009 FreddieMac 4/2014
    9. 9. FreddieMac 4/2014 20% 3%0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Housing Starts Home Sales Projections for Housing in 2014
    10. 10. Has your interest in purchasing a home increased over the last year? Millennial Buyers Yes – 59% Move-up Buyers Yes – 45% Pulte 5/2014
    11. 11. Americans still aspire to buy second homes and have contributed to the growth of the market consistently since its bottom in 2009... As the population continues to age, we expect people to continue to use their savings to buy second homes, thereby contributing to a segment of the mortgage market that will continue to grow in the years to come. FannieMae
    12. 12. 30% 24% 24% 14% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% Real Estate Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Bonds Best Long Term Investment Gallup 4/2014
    13. 13. Gallup 4/2014
    14. 14. 25% 24% 23% 21% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% Real Estate Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Gold Bonds Best Long Term Investment 18-29 year olds Gallup 4/2014
    15. 15. 30% 28% 23% 10% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% Real Estate Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Bonds Best Long Term Investment 50-64 year olds Gallup 4/2014
    16. 16. Best Long Term Investment By Income Category 28% 26% 38% 31% 26% 18% 13% 25% 30% 17% 16% 7%7% 6% 7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Less than $30K $30K-$74,999 $75K and over Real Estate Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Bonds Gallup 4/2014
    17. 17. PRICES
    18. 18. “We leave our 2014 projections for home prices (up 5-7% for the year) unchanged.” Morgan Stanley “Our base case projection for 2014 US home price appreciation is unchanged at 7%.” Barclays HousingWire 4/2014 Home Prices Going Forward
    19. 19. CoreLogic 3/2014 “Home prices nationwide remain 16.9% below their peak, which was set in April 2006.”
    20. 20. Prices Compared to Peak w/ Date of Peak
    21. 21. % of Respondents Reporting Appraisal Problems 34% 31% 29% 24% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Realtors Confidence Index 4/2014
    22. 22. Appraisal Issues/Problems March 2014 Realtors Confidence Index 4/2014
    23. 23. Distressed Properties
    24. 24. 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 14% 21% NAR 4/2014
    25. 25. Foreclosure Inventory by State
    26. 26. Months of Shadow Inventory
    27. 27. Share of Mortgages with Negative Equity
    28. 28. RETURN ON INVESTMENT 51.3 34.9 4.3 65.4 Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate January 2000 – May 2014 MSNMoney.com, Case Shiller
    29. 29. -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar % -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% Year-over-Year Inventory Levels NAR 4/2014
    30. 30. 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 4/2014
    31. 31. 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 4/2014
    32. 32. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 4/2014
    33. 33. Year-over-Year Change in Prices S&P Case Shiller 4/2014
    34. 34. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 4/2014
    35. 35. 3.25 3.5 3.75 4 4.25 4.5 4.75 2013 - 2014 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 4/2014
    36. 36. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 2015 2Q Fannie Mae 4.9% Freddie Mac 5.3% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.2% National Assoc of Realtors 5.5% 4/2014
    37. 37. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 2 Total Economic Impact of a Home Sale http://www.realtor.org/reports/state-by-state-economic-impact-of-real-estate-activity 5,6,9,27, 33,34,35, 36 Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, 12,575 Homes Sell, % Distressed Property, Year- over-Year Inventory, Months Inventory, Homes for Sale, http://www.realtor.org/ 7 Bill McBride Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/04/comments-on-housing-and-existing-home.html 8,28,29, 30 Total Sales Year-Over-Year, Foreclosure Inventory, Months Shadow Inventory, Share of Mortgages http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx# 10,11,12 Freddie Mac Data http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140410_springforward_housingforecast.htm 13 Interest in Purchasing - Pulte Homes Survey http://pultegroupinc.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2014/PulteGroup-Home-Index-S 14 Fannie Mac Quote http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/datanotes/pdf/housing-insights-040714.pdf 15 – 19, 49 Best Long Term Investment - Gallup Poll Slides http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx 21 Morgan Stanley & Barclays Quotes http://www.housingwire.com/articles/29815-wall-street-home-price-appreciation-still-expected-to-hit-7 22, 23, Corelogic Quote, Prices Compared to Peak http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic-hpi-february-2014.pdf 24, 25 % Reported Appraisal Problems, Appraisal Issues March 2014 http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/MARCH-2014-RCI.pdf KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
    38. 38. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 32 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller http://money.msn.com/ 37,38 Year-over-Year Change in Price, Case-Shiller HPI https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice- assets/resources/public/documents/83930_cshomeprice-release-0325.pdf? force_download=true 39 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 40 Mortgage Rate Projections http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast- 1-2014-us-economic-outlook-12-30-2013.pdf 44,47 Guy Kawasaki & Seth Godin Quote LeadingRE Conference 2014 KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
    39. 39. To provide value, real estate agents must not only provide information but also insights into that information. Guy Kawasaki Silicon Valley Author, Speaker, Investor and Business Advisor
    40. 40. It not about having the dots. It’s about connecting the dots!! Seth Godin Author, Entrepreneur, Marketer and Public Speaker
    41. 41. Gallup 4/2014
    1. A particular slide catching your eye?

      Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

    ×