0
Not a verygood strategy!!
The Curse of KnowledgeThe Curse of KnowledgeTotalCommunicationKnowledgeof an Expert
The Curse of KnowledgeThe Curse of KnowledgeThe averageconsumer’sknowledge
We know how muchthings have changed…Buyers don’t!
3 Guarantees Just a Year Ago1.) They would find another home for sure2.) The home would be cheaper3.) The mortgage interes...
9095100105110Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MarPending Home SalesNAR 4/2013100 = Historically Hea...
January 2012 – December 2012January 2011 – December 20118090100110Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2013 2012...
Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale4.05.06.07.08.09.010.0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr M...
Months Market Pricing1- 5 Sellers Appreciation5 - 6 Even The Norm6+ Buyers DepreciationMonths Supply & Impact on Price
S&P Case Shiller 4/2013S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
-3.9%-3.5%-2.5%-1.7%-0.5%0.6%1.1%2.0%3.6%4.3%5.5%6.8%8.1%9.3%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N...
Metropolitan Area Year-over-YearAtlanta 16.5%Boston 5.2%Charlotte 6.2%Chicago 5.1%Cleveland 5.3%Dallas 7.1%Denver 9.9%Detr...
Metropolitan Area M-o-MAtlanta 0%Boston .1%Charlotte -.2%Chicago -.8%Cleveland -.8%Dallas .2%Denver -.2%Detroit -.6%Las Ve...
Home Prices in the Short Term130.00135.00140.00145.00150.00May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May2010-1120...
Case Shiller 4/2013Home Prices Rising in Every MSA
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller33.314.6-15.546.6-30-10103050Dow S&P NASDAQ Real EstateJanuary 2000 – May 2013Return on Investm...
Negative Equity DecreasingNegative Equity Loan Count (millions of mortgages – left axis) Negative Equity Share (percentage...
3.253.53.7544.2530 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History1/2012 – 5/2013Federal Reserve 5/2013
3.33.353.43.453.53.553.63.651/3 1/10 1/17 1/24 1/31 2/7 2/14 2/21 2/28 3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2Rate 3.34 ...
Analyst Projected Rate2013 4QMortgage Bankers Assoc 4.1%Fannie Mae 4%National Assoc of Realtors 4%Mortgage Rate Projections
First Time Buyers as Percentage of SalesNAR2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013March 2013: 30%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
Generations: Who & How ManyGeneration Ages In Millions* % of PopulationGreatest 68+ 35.2 11%Baby Boomers 48-67 80.3 25%Gen...
Millennials Belief in Homeownership89%11%AlreadyOwn or Plan to BuyPlan to Rent89% of adults between theages of 18-29 years...
$300$350$400$450$500$550$600$650$700$7501988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20...
The Cost of RentingCenter for Housing Policy 5/2013More than one in four(26.4%) working renterhouseholds spent morethan ha...
“Inventory will remain constrained,rents will rise and demand forrentals will decline as theproposition for renting aprope...
Will Owning Make Sense in 30 Years?Robert SchillerNY Times 4/2013“It’s quite possible that the next decade might bear ares...
Home Price to Income RatioS&P Housing Views 4/2013
% of Realtors w/ Appraisal ChallengeNARlast 90 daysMarch 2013 – 29%2010 2011 2012 201350%40%30%20%10%0%Contract Cancelled ...
20%25%30%35%Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MarPercentage of Distressed Property Sales35%21%NAR 4/...
U.S. Foreclosure InventoryRealtyTrac 4/2013
Foreclosure Inventory Non-JudicialRealtyTrac 4/2013
Foreclosure Inventory JudicialRealtyTrac 4/2013
Foreclosure Inventory by StatePercentage of mortgages that have beenplaced in the process of foreclosure. CoreLogic Forecl...
“Americans are as bullish on the housing market asthey have been at any time since before thehousing bubble burst several ...
“Gallup data on homeownership provide strongsupport for the idea that the American Dream ofowning a home continues to be a...
GallupAmericans Either Own aHome or Plan to Buy One88 out ofout of 1010
Top FinancialReasons People Buya HomeGallup1. See owning as an investment2. The chance to build equity & credit3. Smarter ...
Top Non-FinancialReasons People Buy aHomeGallup1.Belief in homeownership2.Don’t want to live in a rental3.Better place for...
Pew Charitable TrustsMortgage Interest Deduction% of Tax Filers Claiming M-I-D
Average M-I-D DeductionPew Charitable TrustsMortgage Interest DeductionAverage M-I-D Deduction
Sacramento,CADenver,COPhoenix,AZ15 Largest Areas By Hispanic PopulationSource: NielsenSanFrancisco, CAFresno-Visalia,CALos...
15 Fastest Growing Areas Among HispanicsMinneapolis, MN+98%Population 200,000+Seattle-Tacoma,WA +108%Las Vegas, NV+104%Sal...
ResourcesKEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COMSlide Slide Title Link7 - 9Pending Home Sales, Month’s Inventoryof Homes for Salehttp://...
ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link27 Rent vs. Buying – Looking Forward http://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/marketpulse...
People don’t believe whatyou tell them.They always believe whatthey tell themselves.
Naea 05-13
Naea 05-13
Naea 05-13
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Naea 05-13

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  • http://www.realtor.org
  • http://www.realtor.org
  • http://www.realtor.org
  • http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
  • http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
  • http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
  • http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
  • http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
  • http://www.housingviews.com/2013/04/30/behind-the-numbers-in-the-spcase-shiller-release/
  • http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/commentary/042413-velz.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24 http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-3-37-nbmtwr/april-2013-outlook-2013-03-27.pdf http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_041713.pdf
  • http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index
  • http://online.barrons.com/article_email/SB50001424052748703889404578440972842742076-lMyQjA1MTAzMDIwNzEyNDcyWj.html
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/161975/american-dream-owning-home-lives-even-young.aspx
  • http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
  • http://www.nhcopenhouse.org/2013/05/more-than-quarter-of-working-renter.html
  • http://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/marketpulse_2013-april.pdf
  • http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/21/business/before-housing-bubbles-there-was-land-fever.html
  • http://www.housingviews.com/2013/04/19/housing-bubble-talk-returns/
  • http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index
  • http://www.realtor.org
  • http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q1-2013-foreclosure-inventory-analysis-7653
  • http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q1-2013-foreclosure-inventory-analysis-7653
  • http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q1-2013-foreclosure-inventory-analysis-7653
  • http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-march-2013.pdf
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/161942/americans-optimism-home-prices-surges-this-year.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/161975/american-dream-owning-home-lives-even-young.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/161975/american-dream-owning-home-lives-even-young.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/161966/homeowners-reasons-owning-financial.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/161966/homeowners-reasons-owning-financial.aspx
  • http://www.pewstates.org/uploadedFiles/PCS_Assets/2013/MID-report2.pdf
  • http://www.pewstates.org/uploadedFiles/PCS_Assets/2013/MID-report2.pdf
  • http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/newswire/2013/latino-populations-are-growing-fastest-where-we-arent-looking.html
  • http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/newswire/2013/latino-populations-are-growing-fastest-where-we-arent-looking.html
  • Transcript of "Naea 05-13"

    1. 1. Not a verygood strategy!!
    2. 2. The Curse of KnowledgeThe Curse of KnowledgeTotalCommunicationKnowledgeof an Expert
    3. 3. The Curse of KnowledgeThe Curse of KnowledgeThe averageconsumer’sknowledge
    4. 4. We know how muchthings have changed…Buyers don’t!
    5. 5. 3 Guarantees Just a Year Ago1.) They would find another home for sure2.) The home would be cheaper3.) The mortgage interestrate would be lower
    6. 6. 9095100105110Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MarPending Home SalesNAR 4/2013100 = Historically Healthy Level
    7. 7. January 2012 – December 2012January 2011 – December 20118090100110Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2013 2012 2011100 = Historically Healthy LevelPending Home SalesNAR 4/2013
    8. 8. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale4.05.06.07.08.09.010.0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MarNAR 4/20135-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
    9. 9. Months Market Pricing1- 5 Sellers Appreciation5 - 6 Even The Norm6+ Buyers DepreciationMonths Supply & Impact on Price
    10. 10. S&P Case Shiller 4/2013S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
    11. 11. -3.9%-3.5%-2.5%-1.7%-0.5%0.6%1.1%2.0%3.6%4.3%5.5%6.8%8.1%9.3%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan FebYear-over-Year Change in PricesJan Feb Mar Apr MayS&P Case Shiller 4/2013S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
    12. 12. Metropolitan Area Year-over-YearAtlanta 16.5%Boston 5.2%Charlotte 6.2%Chicago 5.1%Cleveland 5.3%Dallas 7.1%Denver 9.9%Detroit 15.2%Las Vegas 17.6%Los Angeles 14.1%Metropolitan Area Year-over-YearMiami 10.4%Minneapolis 12%New York 1.9%Phoenix 23%Portland 9.4%San Diego 10.2%San Francisco 18.9%Seattle 9.3%Tampa 10%Washington 6.9%S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case Shiller 4/2013
    13. 13. Metropolitan Area M-o-MAtlanta 0%Boston .1%Charlotte -.2%Chicago -.8%Cleveland -.8%Dallas .2%Denver -.2%Detroit -.6%Las Vegas 1.6%Los Angeles 1%Metropolitan Area M-o-MMiami .3%Minneapolis -.9%New York .4%Phoenix 1.1%Portland .7%San Diego .6%San Francisco .5%Seattle -.2%Tampa .6%Washington -.5%S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case Shiller 4/2013
    14. 14. Home Prices in the Short Term130.00135.00140.00145.00150.00May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May2010-112011-122012-13S&P Case Shiller 4/2013PROJECTED?
    15. 15. Case Shiller 4/2013Home Prices Rising in Every MSA
    16. 16. MSN Money.com, Case Shiller33.314.6-15.546.6-30-10103050Dow S&P NASDAQ Real EstateJanuary 2000 – May 2013Return on Investment
    17. 17. Negative Equity DecreasingNegative Equity Loan Count (millions of mortgages – left axis) Negative Equity Share (percentage– right axis)2009 2010 2011 2012Fannie Mae 4/2013
    18. 18. 3.253.53.7544.2530 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History1/2012 – 5/2013Federal Reserve 5/2013
    19. 19. 3.33.353.43.453.53.553.63.651/3 1/10 1/17 1/24 1/31 2/7 2/14 2/21 2/28 3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2Rate 3.34 3.4 3.38 3.42 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.56 3.51 3.52 3.63 3.53 3.57 3.54 3.43 3.41 3.4 3.35Recent Rate MovementFreddie Mac 4/201330 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage2013
    20. 20. Analyst Projected Rate2013 4QMortgage Bankers Assoc 4.1%Fannie Mae 4%National Assoc of Realtors 4%Mortgage Rate Projections
    21. 21. First Time Buyers as Percentage of SalesNAR2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013March 2013: 30%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
    22. 22. Generations: Who & How ManyGeneration Ages In Millions* % of PopulationGreatest 68+ 35.2 11%Baby Boomers 48-67 80.3 25%Generation X 38-47 40.9 13%Millennials 18-37 86 27%iGen 0-17 74 23%*U.S. Census Projections for 2013Barrons 4/2013
    23. 23. Millennials Belief in Homeownership89%11%AlreadyOwn or Plan to BuyPlan to Rent89% of adults between theages of 18-29 years oldeither already own ahome or they planto buy one in thenext 10 years.Gallup
    24. 24. $300$350$400$450$500$550$600$650$700$7501988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Median Asking Rent1988-2012The Increasing Cost of RentingCensus Bureau 4/2013
    25. 25. The Cost of RentingCenter for Housing Policy 5/2013More than one in four(26.4%) working renterhouseholds spent morethan half of their incomeon housing costs.Over50%
    26. 26. “Inventory will remain constrained,rents will rise and demand forrentals will decline as theproposition for renting aproperty becomes moreexpensive.”Rent vs. Buy – Looking ForwardCoreLogic Market Pulse 4/2013
    27. 27. Will Owning Make Sense in 30 Years?Robert SchillerNY Times 4/2013“It’s quite possible that the next decade might bear aresemblance to the 1960s or ’70s...Homeowners did very well if they bought in 1960 or 1970,locked in low fixed-rate mortgages and saw the nominalvalues of their homes soar while their real mortgagebalances declined.This could be an auspicious time to buy a house…for people who aren’t out to bet on the housingor mortgage markets but are instead focusedon settling into a home for the long term.”
    28. 28. Home Price to Income RatioS&P Housing Views 4/2013
    29. 29. % of Realtors w/ Appraisal ChallengeNARlast 90 daysMarch 2013 – 29%2010 2011 2012 201350%40%30%20%10%0%Contract Cancelled Contract Delayed Negotiated to a Lower Price
    30. 30. 20%25%30%35%Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MarPercentage of Distressed Property Sales35%21%NAR 4/2013
    31. 31. U.S. Foreclosure InventoryRealtyTrac 4/2013
    32. 32. Foreclosure Inventory Non-JudicialRealtyTrac 4/2013
    33. 33. Foreclosure Inventory JudicialRealtyTrac 4/2013
    34. 34. Foreclosure Inventory by StatePercentage of mortgages that have beenplaced in the process of foreclosure. CoreLogic Foreclosure Report 3/2013
    35. 35. “Americans are as bullish on the housing market asthey have been at any time since before thehousing bubble burst several years ago. Thissurely reflects the stabilization of the housingmarket, and the fact that home prices are generallyheading up in most parts of the country.”Housing is Back!!Gallup
    36. 36. “Gallup data on homeownership provide strongsupport for the idea that the American Dream ofowning a home continues to be alive and well.The majority of Americanswho own a home plan oncontinuing to do so inthe future, and mostof those who dontown a home planon buying one.”Gallup
    37. 37. GallupAmericans Either Own aHome or Plan to Buy One88 out ofout of 1010
    38. 38. Top FinancialReasons People Buya HomeGallup1. See owning as an investment2. The chance to build equity & credit3. Smarter than paying rent4. More cost effective than renting5. Financial security & stability
    39. 39. Top Non-FinancialReasons People Buy aHomeGallup1.Belief in homeownership2.Don’t want to live in a rental3.Better place for the family4.Ability to do what they want5.Pride of ownership
    40. 40. Pew Charitable TrustsMortgage Interest Deduction% of Tax Filers Claiming M-I-D
    41. 41. Average M-I-D DeductionPew Charitable TrustsMortgage Interest DeductionAverage M-I-D Deduction
    42. 42. Sacramento,CADenver,COPhoenix,AZ15 Largest Areas By Hispanic PopulationSource: NielsenSanFrancisco, CAFresno-Visalia,CALos Angeles,CASan Diego,CAChicago,ILMiami,FLNew York,NYWashington,DCDallas,TXSan Antonio,TX Houston,TXHarlingen,TX
    43. 43. 15 Fastest Growing Areas Among HispanicsMinneapolis, MN+98%Population 200,000+Seattle-Tacoma,WA +108%Las Vegas, NV+104%Salt Lake City,UT +97%Kansas City, MO+97%Oklahoma City,OK +119%Austin, TX+85%Washington, DC+108%Raleigh, NC+139%Charlotte, NC+168%Atlanta, GA+127%Orlando, FL+125%Tampa, FL+112%W. Palm Beach,FL +111%Ft. Myers, FL+123%Source: Nielsen
    44. 44. ResourcesKEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COMSlide Slide Title Link7 - 9Pending Home Sales, Month’s Inventoryof Homes for Salehttp://www.realtor.org11 - 15S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices,Home Prices in the Short Termhttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/03/27/home-prices-seen-making-stronger-gains-in-2013/16 Home Prices Rising in Every MSA http://www.housingviews.com/2013/04/30/behind-the-numbers-in-the-spcase-shiller-release18 Negative Equity Decreasing http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/commentary/042413-velz.html19 - 2030 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History,Recent Rate Movementhttp://www.freddiemac.com/pmms21 Mortgage Rate Projectionshttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-3-37-nbmtwr/april-2013-outlook-http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_041713.pdf22 First Time Buyers as Percentage of Sale http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index23 Generations: Who & How Many http://online.barrons.com/article_email/SB50001424052748703889404578440972842742076-lMyQjA24 Millennials Belief in Homeownership http://www.gallup.com/poll/161975/american-dream-owning-home-lives-even-young.aspx25 Cheaper to Buy than Rent http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html26 The Cost of Renting http://www.nhcopenhouse.org/2013/05/more-than-quarter-of-working-renter.html
    45. 45. ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link27 Rent vs. Buying – Looking Forward http://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/marketpulse_2013-april.pdf28 Will Owning Make Sense in 30 Years?http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/21/business/before-housing-bubbles-there-was-land-fever.html29 Home Price to Income Ratio http://www.housingviews.com/2013/04/19/housing-bubble-talk-returns/30 % of Realtors with Appraisal Challenge http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index31 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org32 - 34U.S. Foreclosure Inventory, ForeclosureInventoryhttp://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q1-2013-foreclosure-inventory-analys35 Foreclosure Inventory by Statehttp://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-march-2013.pdf37 Housing is Backhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/161942/americans-optimism-home-prices-surges-this-year.aspx38 - 39 Gallup Data on Homeownership http://www.gallup.com/poll/161975/american-dream-owning-home-lives-even-young.aspx40 - 415 Top Financial Reasons People Buy aHome, 5 Top Non-Financial ReasonsPeople Buy a Homehttp://www.gallup.com/poll/161966/homeowners-reasons-owning-financial.aspx42 - 43 Mortgage Interest Deduction http://www.pewstates.org/uploadedFiles/PCS_Assets/2013/MID-report2.pdf44 - 4515 Largest Areas By Hispanic Population,15 Fastest Growing Areas Among Hispanicshttp://www.nielsen.com/us/en/newswire/2013/latino-populations-are-growing-fastest-where-we-arent-looking.html
    46. 46. People don’t believe whatyou tell them.They always believe whatthey tell themselves.
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