KCM Divided into
Three Sections
Be their ‘Expert’
This is a person to whom
people will turn for advice
on difficult or complex
real estate decisions.
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
...
Existing Home Sales
NAR 2/2014
WEST
- 8.1%
MIDWEST
+2.0%
SOUTH +3.6%
NORTHEAST
+7.1%
U.S. + .8%
Year-over-Year as per
NAR’s 2013 4Q Report
% Change in Ho...
NAR 2/2014
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct...
Date Sales % Non-Distressed Total Non-distressed
Jan ’13 4.87M 77% 3.75M
Jan ‘14 4.62M 85% 3.93M
Non-Distressed Sales Stil...
-19.1%
-6%
3.9%
15.2%
19.4%
37.5%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1...
Bill McBride
Calculated Risk Finance & Economics
The bottom line is the housing
weakness should be temporary. There
should...
8.2% 7.9%
5.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
January 2013 December 2013 January 2014
Institutional Inv...
WHO ARE THEY?
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS
NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
WHAT ARE SOURCES OF DOWNPAYMENT?
Savings
Gift from
Relative or Friend
Sale of Stocks or Bonds
401k/Pension Fund
Loan from
...
Cut Spending
on Luxury Items
Cut Spending
on Entertainment
Cut Spending
on Clothes
Cancelled
Vacation Plans
Income from
a ...
FINANCING
95%
5%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Mortgage Cash
FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS
NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
3.25
3.5
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
2013 - 2014
30 Year Fixed
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac 2/2014
Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst Projected Rate
1Q 2015
Fannie Mae 4.9%
National Assoc of Realtors 5.5%
Freddie Mac 5.1%
...
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-14 1Q 2015
P
Freddie Ma...
Buying is CHEAPER than
renting in ALL of the 100
largest metros by
an average of… 38%
Trulia 2/2014
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
The Increasing Cost of Renting
Median Asking Rent
1988-2013
Census Burea...
3.8%
6.6%
Bachelor's Degree or More U.S.
Unemployment Rate: Millennials Ages 25-32 with
a Bachelor’s Degree vs. U.S. Rate
...
$45,500
$40,872
Bachelor's Degree or More U.S.
Median Annual Full Time Wage: Millennials
Ages 25-32 with Bachelor’s Degree...
29%
Have no student debt
$29.4K
Average Student Debt
$335.33
Typical Payment
The Project on
Student Debt
Median HOUSEHOLD Income of Young Adults
(25-32 years old) Living in their Parents’ Home?
Pew Research 2/2014
$113,181
Millennials Belief in Real Estate and its Agents
Optimistic About
Real Estate In 2014 70%
Look To An Agent
For Sound Guida...
74%
4% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Email Social Media Text
Method Used by
18-29 Year Olds to
Download Information
Home
Prices
Year-over-Year Price Change by Region
FHFA 2013 4Q
Year-over-Year Price Change by State
FHFA 2013 4Q
Home Price
Expectation
Survey
A nationwide panel
of over one hundred
economists, real
estate experts and
investment & mark...
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q
Average Annual %
APPRECIATION
4.5
4.0
3.7 3.7 3.8
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PROJECTED
Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018
19.4%
28.4%
19.7%
10.9%
Pre-Bubble
Trend
Bulls...
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov D...
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
49.2
33.3
9.3
65.7
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – February 2014
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 2/2014
-24%
-20.8%
-16.8%
-14%
-13%
-7.6%
-5%
-6.2%
1.8% 0.9%
5%
1.6%
7.3%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan Feb March April ...
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Mon...
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Ma...
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
6, 7, 9,
42, 43, 44
Pending Home Sales, Existing Home Sales,
% Distressed Property Sales,...
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
25, 26 Millennials: Unemployment & Income
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-r...
The Power of Using Visuals
Percentage Making a Decision
Immediately after Presentation
Percentage Increase Seeing
Presente...
The Power of Using Visuals
83%
11%
3.5% 1.5% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Visual Sound Smell Touch Taste
Stud...
The Power of Using Visuals
10%
35%
65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Oral Presentation Visual Presentation Oral & Visual ...
MacroVU
Visual Learning
The Power of Using Visuals
Presenters using visuals were perceived as more effective.
People said ...
Naea 03-14
Naea 03-14
Naea 03-14
Naea 03-14
Naea 03-14
Naea 03-14
Naea 03-14
Naea 03-14
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Naea 03-14

153

Published on

Published in: Real Estate
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
153
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2013/12/existing-home-sales-decline-in-november-but-strong-price-gains-continue
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/02/existing-home-sales-drop-in-january-while-prices-continue-to-grow
  • http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/02/23/a-closer-look-at-the-latest-ehs-release/
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/02/housing-weakness-temporary-or-enduring.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
  • http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report
  • http://www.realtor.org/ -
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf
    http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf
    http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf
    http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-1-2014-us-economic-outlook-12-30-2013.pdf
  • http://trends.truliablog.com/category/rent-vs-buy-index/
  • http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
  • http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/
    http://www.bls.gov/
  • http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/
    http://www.bls.gov/
  • http://projectonstudentdebt.org/
  • http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/6/#appendix-c-young-adult-living-arrangements-and-household-incomes
  • https://www.prudentialrealestate.com/Portals/0/Documents/Prudential%20Q4%20Consumer%20Outlook%20Infographic.jpg
  • http://www.mediabistro.com/alltwitter/files/2012/08/email-vs-social-media-marketing.jpeg
  • www.fhfa.gov
  • www.fhfa.gov
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
    http://money.msn.com/
  • https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/79678_cshomeprice-release-0225.pdf?force_download=true
  • www.realtor.org
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.macrovu.com/VTVCInterEffectiveness.html
  • https://www.osha.gov/doc/outreachtraining/htmlfiles/traintec.html
  • https://www.osha.gov/doc/outreachtraining/htmlfiles/traintec.html
  • http://www.macrovu.com/VTVCInterEffectiveness.html
  • Naea 03-14

    1. 1. KCM Divided into Three Sections
    2. 2. Be their ‘Expert’ This is a person to whom people will turn for advice on difficult or complex real estate decisions.
    3. 3. 90 95 100 105 110 115 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 100 = Historically Healthy Level Pending Home Sales NAR 2/2014
    4. 4. Existing Home Sales NAR 2/2014
    5. 5. WEST - 8.1% MIDWEST +2.0% SOUTH +3.6% NORTHEAST +7.1% U.S. + .8% Year-over-Year as per NAR’s 2013 4Q Report % Change in House Sales
    6. 6. NAR 2/2014 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 15% 23%
    7. 7. Date Sales % Non-Distressed Total Non-distressed Jan ’13 4.87M 77% 3.75M Jan ‘14 4.62M 85% 3.93M Non-Distressed Sales Still Up
    8. 8. -19.1% -6% 3.9% 15.2% 19.4% 37.5% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% $0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % Sales +/- -19.1% -6% 3.9% 15.2% 19.4% 37.5% Percentage Change in Sales from a Year Ago by Price Range
    9. 9. Bill McBride Calculated Risk Finance & Economics The bottom line is the housing weakness should be temporary. There should be more inventory this year, price increases should slow, and sales volumes increase.
    10. 10. 8.2% 7.9% 5.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% January 2013 December 2013 January 2014 Institutional Investor Sales RealtyTrac 2/2014
    11. 11. WHO ARE THEY? HOUSEHOLD TYPE FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
    12. 12. WHAT ARE SOURCES OF DOWNPAYMENT? Savings Gift from Relative or Friend Sale of Stocks or Bonds 401k/Pension Fund Loan from Relative or Friend Inheritance IRA 78% 27% 9% 8% 7% 4% 3% FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
    13. 13. Cut Spending on Luxury Items Cut Spending on Entertainment Cut Spending on Clothes Cancelled Vacation Plans Income from a 2nd Job Sold/Didn’t Buy a Car 33% 27% 13% 9% 5% 40% WHAT SACRIFICES DO THEY MAKE TO PURCHASE? FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
    14. 14. FINANCING 95% 5% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Mortgage Cash FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
    15. 15. 3.25 3.5 3.75 4 4.25 4.5 4.75 2013 - 2014 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 2/2014
    16. 16. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 1Q 2015 Fannie Mae 4.9% National Assoc of Realtors 5.5% Freddie Mac 5.1% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.1% 2/2014
    17. 17. 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-14 1Q 2015 P Freddie Mac 2/2014 2003 - 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
    18. 18. Buying is CHEAPER than renting in ALL of the 100 largest metros by an average of… 38% Trulia 2/2014
    19. 19. $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 The Increasing Cost of Renting Median Asking Rent 1988-2013 Census Bureau 2014
    20. 20. 3.8% 6.6% Bachelor's Degree or More U.S. Unemployment Rate: Millennials Ages 25-32 with a Bachelor’s Degree vs. U.S. Rate Bureau of Labor Statistics & Pew Research 2/2014
    21. 21. $45,500 $40,872 Bachelor's Degree or More U.S. Median Annual Full Time Wage: Millennials Ages 25-32 with Bachelor’s Degree vs. U.S. Rate Bureau of Labor Statistics & Pew Research 2/2014
    22. 22. 29% Have no student debt $29.4K Average Student Debt $335.33 Typical Payment The Project on Student Debt
    23. 23. Median HOUSEHOLD Income of Young Adults (25-32 years old) Living in their Parents’ Home? Pew Research 2/2014 $113,181
    24. 24. Millennials Belief in Real Estate and its Agents Optimistic About Real Estate In 2014 70% Look To An Agent For Sound Guidance 62% Think A Good Agent Can Maximize The Investment 70%
    25. 25. 74% 4% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Email Social Media Text Method Used by 18-29 Year Olds to Download Information
    26. 26. Home Prices
    27. 27. Year-over-Year Price Change by Region FHFA 2013 4Q
    28. 28. Year-over-Year Price Change by State FHFA 2013 4Q
    29. 29. Home Price Expectation Survey A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.
    30. 30. Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q Average Annual % APPRECIATION
    31. 31. 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.8 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PROJECTED Percentage Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q
    32. 32. Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018 19.4% 28.4% 19.7% 10.9% Pre-Bubble Trend Bulls All Projections Bears
    33. 33. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S&P Case Shiller 2/2014 Year-over-Year Change in Prices
    34. 34. RETURN ON INVESTMENT 49.2 33.3 9.3 65.7 Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate January 2000 – February 2014 MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
    35. 35. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 2/2014
    36. 36. -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5% 1.6% 7.3% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan % -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% NAR 2/2014 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
    37. 37. 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 2/2014
    38. 38. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 2/2014
    39. 39. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 6, 7, 9, 42, 43, 44 Pending Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, % Distressed Property Sales, Year-over-Year Inventory, Months Inventory Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org/ 8 % Change in House Sales http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2013/12/existing-home-sales-decline-in-november-but-st 10 Non-Distressed Sales Still Up http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/02/existing-home-sales-drop-in-january-while-prices 11 Percentage Change in Sales from a Year Ago by Price Range http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/02/23/a-closer-look-at-the-latest-ehs-release/ 12 Bill McBride Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/02/housing-weakness-temporary-or-enduring.html?utm 13 Institutional Investor Sales http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report 14-17 First Time Homebuyers http://www.realtor.org/ - NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers 18, 20 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 19 Mortgage Rate Projections http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-1 22 Buying is Cheaper http://trends.truliablog.com/category/rent-vs-buy-index/ 23 Increasing Cost of Renting http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
    40. 40. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 25, 26 Millennials: Unemployment & Income http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/ http://www.bls.gov/ 27 Project on Student Debt http://projectonstudentdebt.org/ 28 Median Household Income of Millennials Living at Home http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to- college/6/#appendix-c-young-adult-living-arrangements-and-household-incomes 29 Millennials Belief in Real Estate & It’s Agents https://www.prudentialrealestate.com/Portals/0/Documents/Prudential %20Q4%20Consumer%20Outlook%20Infographic.jpg 30 Methods Used to Download http://www.mediabistro.com/alltwitter/files/2012/08/email-vs-social-media- marketing.jpeg 32, 33 Year-Over-Year Price Changes Regional & State www.fhfa.gov 35, 36, 37 Avg. Annual % Appreciation, Projected % Appreciation, Cumulative Appreciation https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php 39 Year-over-Year Change in Price http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 40 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller http://money.msn.com/ 41 Case-Shiller Home Price Index https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice- assets/resources/public/documents/79678_cshomeprice-release-0225.pdf 48, 51 The Power of Using Visuals http://www.macrovu.com/VTVCInterEffectiveness.html 49, 50 The Power of Using Visuals https://www.osha.gov/doc/outreachtraining/htmlfiles/traintec.html
    41. 41. The Power of Using Visuals Percentage Making a Decision Immediately after Presentation Percentage Increase Seeing Presenter as More Convincing 64% 34% 24% MacroVU Visual Learning Compared Identical Presentations With and Without Visuals Amount of Time the Presentation was Reduced By
    42. 42. The Power of Using Visuals 83% 11% 3.5% 1.5% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Visual Sound Smell Touch Taste Studies by Educational Researchers Suggest that Human Learning Occurs by Approximately these Percentages OSHA
    43. 43. The Power of Using Visuals 10% 35% 65% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Oral Presentation Visual Presentation Oral & Visual Presentation Studies suggest that three days after a presentation, people retain these percentages of what they heard OSHA
    44. 44. MacroVU Visual Learning The Power of Using Visuals Presenters using visuals were perceived as more effective. People said such things as… More Interesting More Concise More Professional More Credible Better Prepared
    1. A particular slide catching your eye?

      Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

    ×