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Naea 03-14

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  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2013/12/existing-home-sales-decline-in-november-but-strong-price-gains-continue
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/02/existing-home-sales-drop-in-january-while-prices-continue-to-grow
  • http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/02/23/a-closer-look-at-the-latest-ehs-release/
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/02/housing-weakness-temporary-or-enduring.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
  • http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report
  • http://www.realtor.org/ -
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf
    http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf
    http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf
    http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-1-2014-us-economic-outlook-12-30-2013.pdf
  • http://trends.truliablog.com/category/rent-vs-buy-index/
  • http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
  • http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/
    http://www.bls.gov/
  • http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/
    http://www.bls.gov/
  • http://projectonstudentdebt.org/
  • http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/6/#appendix-c-young-adult-living-arrangements-and-household-incomes
  • https://www.prudentialrealestate.com/Portals/0/Documents/Prudential%20Q4%20Consumer%20Outlook%20Infographic.jpg
  • http://www.mediabistro.com/alltwitter/files/2012/08/email-vs-social-media-marketing.jpeg
  • www.fhfa.gov
  • www.fhfa.gov
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
    http://money.msn.com/
  • https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/79678_cshomeprice-release-0225.pdf?force_download=true
  • www.realtor.org
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.macrovu.com/VTVCInterEffectiveness.html
  • https://www.osha.gov/doc/outreachtraining/htmlfiles/traintec.html
  • https://www.osha.gov/doc/outreachtraining/htmlfiles/traintec.html
  • http://www.macrovu.com/VTVCInterEffectiveness.html
  • Transcript

    • 1. KCM Divided into Three Sections
    • 2. Be their ‘Expert’ This is a person to whom people will turn for advice on difficult or complex real estate decisions.
    • 3. 90 95 100 105 110 115 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 100 = Historically Healthy Level Pending Home Sales NAR 2/2014
    • 4. Existing Home Sales NAR 2/2014
    • 5. WEST - 8.1% MIDWEST +2.0% SOUTH +3.6% NORTHEAST +7.1% U.S. + .8% Year-over-Year as per NAR’s 2013 4Q Report % Change in House Sales
    • 6. NAR 2/2014 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 15% 23%
    • 7. Date Sales % Non-Distressed Total Non-distressed Jan ’13 4.87M 77% 3.75M Jan ‘14 4.62M 85% 3.93M Non-Distressed Sales Still Up
    • 8. -19.1% -6% 3.9% 15.2% 19.4% 37.5% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% $0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % Sales +/- -19.1% -6% 3.9% 15.2% 19.4% 37.5% Percentage Change in Sales from a Year Ago by Price Range
    • 9. Bill McBride Calculated Risk Finance & Economics The bottom line is the housing weakness should be temporary. There should be more inventory this year, price increases should slow, and sales volumes increase.
    • 10. 8.2% 7.9% 5.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% January 2013 December 2013 January 2014 Institutional Investor Sales RealtyTrac 2/2014
    • 11. WHO ARE THEY? HOUSEHOLD TYPE FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
    • 12. WHAT ARE SOURCES OF DOWNPAYMENT? Savings Gift from Relative or Friend Sale of Stocks or Bonds 401k/Pension Fund Loan from Relative or Friend Inheritance IRA 78% 27% 9% 8% 7% 4% 3% FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
    • 13. Cut Spending on Luxury Items Cut Spending on Entertainment Cut Spending on Clothes Cancelled Vacation Plans Income from a 2nd Job Sold/Didn’t Buy a Car 33% 27% 13% 9% 5% 40% WHAT SACRIFICES DO THEY MAKE TO PURCHASE? FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
    • 14. FINANCING 95% 5% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Mortgage Cash FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
    • 15. 3.25 3.5 3.75 4 4.25 4.5 4.75 2013 - 2014 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 2/2014
    • 16. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 1Q 2015 Fannie Mae 4.9% National Assoc of Realtors 5.5% Freddie Mac 5.1% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.1% 2/2014
    • 17. 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-14 1Q 2015 P Freddie Mac 2/2014 2003 - 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
    • 18. Buying is CHEAPER than renting in ALL of the 100 largest metros by an average of… 38% Trulia 2/2014
    • 19. $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 The Increasing Cost of Renting Median Asking Rent 1988-2013 Census Bureau 2014
    • 20. 3.8% 6.6% Bachelor's Degree or More U.S. Unemployment Rate: Millennials Ages 25-32 with a Bachelor’s Degree vs. U.S. Rate Bureau of Labor Statistics & Pew Research 2/2014
    • 21. $45,500 $40,872 Bachelor's Degree or More U.S. Median Annual Full Time Wage: Millennials Ages 25-32 with Bachelor’s Degree vs. U.S. Rate Bureau of Labor Statistics & Pew Research 2/2014
    • 22. 29% Have no student debt $29.4K Average Student Debt $335.33 Typical Payment The Project on Student Debt
    • 23. Median HOUSEHOLD Income of Young Adults (25-32 years old) Living in their Parents’ Home? Pew Research 2/2014 $113,181
    • 24. Millennials Belief in Real Estate and its Agents Optimistic About Real Estate In 2014 70% Look To An Agent For Sound Guidance 62% Think A Good Agent Can Maximize The Investment 70%
    • 25. 74% 4% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Email Social Media Text Method Used by 18-29 Year Olds to Download Information
    • 26. Home Prices
    • 27. Year-over-Year Price Change by Region FHFA 2013 4Q
    • 28. Year-over-Year Price Change by State FHFA 2013 4Q
    • 29. Home Price Expectation Survey A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.
    • 30. Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q Average Annual % APPRECIATION
    • 31. 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.8 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PROJECTED Percentage Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q
    • 32. Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018 19.4% 28.4% 19.7% 10.9% Pre-Bubble Trend Bulls All Projections Bears
    • 33. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S&P Case Shiller 2/2014 Year-over-Year Change in Prices
    • 34. RETURN ON INVESTMENT 49.2 33.3 9.3 65.7 Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate January 2000 – February 2014 MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
    • 35. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 2/2014
    • 36. -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5% 1.6% 7.3% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan % -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% NAR 2/2014 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
    • 37. 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 2/2014
    • 38. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 2/2014
    • 39. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 6, 7, 9, 42, 43, 44 Pending Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, % Distressed Property Sales, Year-over-Year Inventory, Months Inventory Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org/ 8 % Change in House Sales http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2013/12/existing-home-sales-decline-in-november-but-st 10 Non-Distressed Sales Still Up http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/02/existing-home-sales-drop-in-january-while-prices 11 Percentage Change in Sales from a Year Ago by Price Range http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/02/23/a-closer-look-at-the-latest-ehs-release/ 12 Bill McBride Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/02/housing-weakness-temporary-or-enduring.html?utm 13 Institutional Investor Sales http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report 14-17 First Time Homebuyers http://www.realtor.org/ - NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers 18, 20 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 19 Mortgage Rate Projections http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-1 22 Buying is Cheaper http://trends.truliablog.com/category/rent-vs-buy-index/ 23 Increasing Cost of Renting http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
    • 40. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 25, 26 Millennials: Unemployment & Income http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/ http://www.bls.gov/ 27 Project on Student Debt http://projectonstudentdebt.org/ 28 Median Household Income of Millennials Living at Home http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to- college/6/#appendix-c-young-adult-living-arrangements-and-household-incomes 29 Millennials Belief in Real Estate & It’s Agents https://www.prudentialrealestate.com/Portals/0/Documents/Prudential %20Q4%20Consumer%20Outlook%20Infographic.jpg 30 Methods Used to Download http://www.mediabistro.com/alltwitter/files/2012/08/email-vs-social-media- marketing.jpeg 32, 33 Year-Over-Year Price Changes Regional & State www.fhfa.gov 35, 36, 37 Avg. Annual % Appreciation, Projected % Appreciation, Cumulative Appreciation https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php 39 Year-over-Year Change in Price http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 40 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller http://money.msn.com/ 41 Case-Shiller Home Price Index https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice- assets/resources/public/documents/79678_cshomeprice-release-0225.pdf 48, 51 The Power of Using Visuals http://www.macrovu.com/VTVCInterEffectiveness.html 49, 50 The Power of Using Visuals https://www.osha.gov/doc/outreachtraining/htmlfiles/traintec.html
    • 41. The Power of Using Visuals Percentage Making a Decision Immediately after Presentation Percentage Increase Seeing Presenter as More Convincing 64% 34% 24% MacroVU Visual Learning Compared Identical Presentations With and Without Visuals Amount of Time the Presentation was Reduced By
    • 42. The Power of Using Visuals 83% 11% 3.5% 1.5% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Visual Sound Smell Touch Taste Studies by Educational Researchers Suggest that Human Learning Occurs by Approximately these Percentages OSHA
    • 43. The Power of Using Visuals 10% 35% 65% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Oral Presentation Visual Presentation Oral & Visual Presentation Studies suggest that three days after a presentation, people retain these percentages of what they heard OSHA
    • 44. MacroVU Visual Learning The Power of Using Visuals Presenters using visuals were perceived as more effective. People said such things as… More Interesting More Concise More Professional More Credible Better Prepared