Naea 01-13

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  • http://www.realtor.org
  • http://www.realtor.org /
  • http://www.realtor.org /
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245345601476
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Dec_2012_HPE_Survey.html
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Dec_2012_HPE_Survey.html
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Dec_2012_HPE_Survey.html
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Dec_2012_HPE_Survey.html
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Dec_2012_HPE_Survey.html http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/10/26/home-prices-projected-to-increase-by-3-percent-in-forthcoming-year http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash08.html?project=EFORECAST07
  • http://www.redfin.com/about/press/releases/more-homebuyers-confident-about-rising-home-prices
  • http://info.trulia.com/trulia-american-dream-survey-winter-2012
  • http://info.trulia.com/trulia-american-dream-survey-winter-2012
  • http://info.trulia.com/trulia-american-dream-survey-winter-2012
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/w12-4_drew_herbert.pdf
  • http://www.redfin.com/about/press/releases/more-homebuyers-confident-about-rising-home-prices
  • https://www.pulsenomics.com/Sep_2012_HPE_Survey.html
  • http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24
  • http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
  • http://www.businessinsider.com/michelle-meyer-foreclosure-process-home-prices-2012-12
  • http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-long-a-foreclosure-takes-in-your-state-2012-12-03?siteid=nwhreal
  • Naea 01-13

    1. 1. Pending Home Sales105100 95 90 85 80 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NAR 12/2012
    2. 2. Pending Home Sales105 100 = Historically Healthy Level10095 November 2011 – November 20129085 November 2010 – November 201180 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NAR 12/2012
    3. 3. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory 5.0 4.0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NAR 12/2012
    4. 4. Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed5.25 54.75 4.54.25 43.75 3.53.25 1/01/2011 Today Federal Reserve
    5. 5. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 12/2012
    6. 6. Return on Investment50 46.1 January 2000 – January 201330 18.310 0.5-10-30 -24.9-50 Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
    7. 7. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices5.0% Year-over-Year Change in Prices 4.3%4.0% 3.6%3.0% 2.0%2.0% 1.1%1.0% 0.6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May0.0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-1.0% -0.5%-2.0% -1.7%-3.0% -2.5%-4.0% -3.5% -3.9%-5.0% S&P Case Shiller 12/2012
    8. 8. Projected % Change in Home Prices Source 2013 JP Morgan 9.7% Barclays 5.5% Capital Economics 5% Freddie Mac 2-3%
    9. 9. Home PriceExpectation Survey
    10. 10. Average Annual Appreciation12.0%10.0% 10.4%8.0%6.0%4.0% 3.6% 3.3%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0% -5.7%-6.0% Pre-Bubble (1987-1999) Bubble (Q1 2000 - Q2 2006) Bust (Q3 2006 - Q2 2012) Expectations (2013 - 2017) Home Price Expectation Survey 12/2012
    11. 11. Home Price Expectation Survey4.5 Projected Percentage Increase 43.5 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.1 32.5 21.5 10.5 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Home Price Expectation Survey 12/2012
    12. 12. Bulls vs. Bears35 33.6 Overall Bulls Bears30 27.725 23.1 21.820 19 16.5 15.215 11.5 11.5 11.210 8.8 7.9 6.3 6.7 5.5 4.6 5 3.8 3 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Home Price Expectation Survey 12/2012
    13. 13. Cumulative Appreciation by Survey20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 191816 15 15.11412 11.3 11.3 11.510 7.7 7.9 7.9 8 6 4.3 4.7 4.6 4 2.3 2 1.6 -0.2 0 December 2011 September 2012 December 2012-2 Home Price Expectation Survey 12/2012
    14. 14. Projected % Change in Home Prices Source 2013 Home Price Expectation Survey 3.1 National Assoc Business Economists 2.8 WSJ Economic Survey 3.25
    15. 15. Urgency Being Felt by Buyers Percentage of Buyers Who Believe Prices Will Rise In the Next 12 Months80% 71%70% 61%60% 57%50%40% 34%30%20%10%0% Q1 2012 Survey Q2 2012 Survey Q3 2012 Survey Q4 2012 Survey Redfin12/17/2012
    16. 16. Gen X & Gen Y andHomeownership
    17. 17. 43% are already homeowners Trulia12/2012
    18. 18. 72%say homeownership is part of their personal American Dream Trulia 12/2012
    19. 19. 93%that currently rent planto purchase a home Trulia 12/2012
    20. 20. Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University 201279% of those under 25 years old% that Believe Owning 86%is Financially Better of thosethan Renting 25-34
    21. 21. Gen X and Y Price Rate P&I Today 360,000 3.4 1,596.53 End of 1,858.62 Year 371,160 4.4 Monthly Savings $262.09
    22. 22. Thinking about moving up to the home of your dreams?
    23. 23. Move-Up Buyers Coming to Market60%50% 49% Reasons Non-First Time40% Buyers Will Buy30%20% 17.5% 11.5% 8.6% 9.6%10% 3.7%0% Significally Same Size, Same Size, But Same Size, More Same Size, Significally Bigger Cross Town Nicer Affordable Cross Country Smaller 75.1% Some Form of Move-Up Buyer Redfin12/17/2012
    24. 24. Cost vs. Price
    25. 25. The Move-Up SellerComparison Today Current Home Move-up Home2006 Price $300,000 $450,000Current Price (-20%) $240,000 $360,000Loss/Savings $60,000 $90,000Net Gain forMove-Up Seller $30,000
    26. 26. Home Prices Next YearIn the recent Home Price Expectation Survey,105 leading housing analysts called for a 3.1%increase in home values by the end of 2013.
    27. 27. The Move-Up SellerComparison – 1 Year Later Current Home Move-up HomeCurrent Price $240,000 $360,000Future Price (+3.1%) $247,440 $371,160Future Gain $7,440 $11,160Future Difference $3,720Current Gain $30,000Total Gain $33,720
    28. 28. Mortgage Rates Moving Forward“After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates areexpected to creep up slowly in 2013, the Mortgage BankersAssociation predicted.” 5 4.5 4.4 4 3.5 3 2.5 Projected 2 30 Year Mortgage 1.5 Rate 1 0.5 0 2013 4Q MarketWatch 10/24/2012
    29. 29. The Move-Up Seller Price Rate P&I Today 360,000 3.4 1,596.53 End of 1,858.62 Year 371,160 4.4 Monthly Savings $262.09
    30. 30. FutureHomePrices
    31. 31. Home Prices in the Short Term150.00 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13145.00 PRO JEC TED140.00135.00130.00 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr S&P Case Shiller 12/2012
    32. 32. Some States Still Have a Way to Go“States with a non-judicial process witnessed a sharperdecline in home prices at the beginning of the downturn, butare currently enjoying price appreciation. This is due to amore disposition of delinquent supply, leaving leaninventory in many markets…In contrast, states with ajudicial process, such as Florida, Illinois, and New York,are still struggling to clear the pipeline of distressed loans.As a result, home prices in the Chicagoand New York metro areas havecontinued to edge lower.”BofA Merrill Lynchs Michelle Meyer
    33. 33. Days to Foreclosure RealtyTrac12/2012
    34. 34. Highest Foreclosure Inventory
    35. 35. ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link Pending Home Sales, Month’s Inventory of2,3,4 http://www.realtor.org Home Sales5 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245345606 S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices Average Annual Appreciation, Home Price11,12, Expectation Survey, Bulls vs. Bears,13, 14, https://pulsenomics.com/Dec_2012_HPE_Survey.html Cumulative Appreciation by Survey, Projected15 % Change in Home Prices http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/10/26/home-prices-projected-to-increase-by-3-percen15 Projected % Change in Home Prices , http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash08.html?project=EFORECAST07 http://www.redfin.com/about/press/releases/more-homebuyers-confident-about-rising-home-prices16 Urgency Being Felt by Buyers18, 19, 43% are already Homeowners, 72% say http://info.trulia.com/trulia-american-dream-survey-winter-201220 homeownership…, 93% that currently rent…, % that Believe Owning is Financially Better21 http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/w12-4_drew_herbert.pdf than Renting http://www.redfin.com/about/press/releases/more-homebuyers-confident-about-rising-home-prices24 Move Up Buyers Coming to Market KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
    36. 36. ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link27 Home Prices Next Year https://www.pulsenomics.com/Sep_2012_HPE_Survey.html29 Mortgage Rates Moving Forward http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24 http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?32 Home Prices in the Short Term indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----33 Some States Still Have a Way to Go http://www.businessinsider.com/michelle-meyer-foreclosure-process-home-prices-2012-12 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-long-a-foreclosure-takes-in-your-state-2012-12-03?34 Days to Foreclosure siteid=nwhreal KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

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