Return on Investment        January 2000 – March 2013MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Pending Home Sales110105100 95 90   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec   Jan           ...
Pending Home Sales110105       100 = Historically Healthy Level100                                                January ...
New Home  SALES  January 2013 Sales                 +28.9%   +15.6% Compared to    Compared toDecember 2012   January 2012...
“While gross domestic product is           expected to be negatively impacted by           all the uncertainty surrounding...
Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0         5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory 5.0 4.0       Jan Feb...
Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale10.0 9.0 8.0                    2011 7.0 6.0     5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory 5...
Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale7.06.0        5-6 Months = Normal Market5.0        < 4 Months = Sellers’ Market4.03.0  ...
Calculated Risk 2/2013
New Home Inventory                     Calculated Risk 2/2013
Months Supply & Impact on Price           Months   Market      Pricing             1- 4   Sellers   Appreciation          ...
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year)                                  FHFA 2012 1Q HPI Report
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year)                                  FHFA 2012 2Q HPI Report
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year)                                  FHFA 2012 3Q HPI Report
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year)                                  FHFA 2012 4Q HPI Report
1st Quarter   2nd Quarter3rd Quarter   4th Quarter
FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year)                                          FHFA 2/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices                            S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices8.0%          Year-over-Year Change in Prices                                          ...
Year-over-Year Price IncreasesIndex                 IncreaseCase Shiller            6.8%LPS                     5.8%CoreLo...
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area   Year-over-Year    Metropolitan Area   Year-over-YearAtlanta       ...
Home Prices in the Short Term150.00               2010-11               2011-12               2012-13                     ...
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area   M-o-M    Metropolitan Area    M-o-MAtlanta               0.3    Mi...
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History5.25  54.75 4.5                 2/2011 – 3/20134.25  43.75 3.53.25                     ...
Mortgage Rates Moving Forward“After reaching record lows in 2012,mortgage rates are expected to creep upslowly in 2013, th...
Mortgage Rates - 30 year fixed                3.6                      12/01/2012 – 3/1/2013               3.55           ...
Impact of Increasing Rates                 Price      Rate       P&I                 200,000    3.4      886.96           ...
Bernanke on Interest Rates“If, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)anticipates, the economic recovery continues at ...
Housing America’s Future:New Directions for National Policy“The report proposed a reformed system of housing financein whi...
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales35%        35%30%25%                                                               ...
Shadow Inventory   “Shadow inventory never hit full force, so now I think   we’re at a point where the pendulum has swung ...
FORECLOSURES                               CNN Money 2013100 hardest hit zips in 2012
CoreLogic 2/28/2013
Short Sales Moving Forward  “Short sales don’t seem to be going away anytime  soon...I think 2013 and 2014 are going to be...
Login to KCM and download your copy
How are you preparing for real      estate’s new market reality?         FREE WEBINARwww.keepingcurrentmatters.com/newmark...
Building Trust is Important “Weary of misinformation, people are making integrity a new form of     competitive advantage…...
ResourcesSlide      Slide Title                                      Link3,4,7,8,   Pending Home Sales, Month’s Inventory ...
ResourcesSlide   Slide Title                               Link29      Bernake on Interest Rates                 http://ww...
March Market Trends Report
March Market Trends Report
March Market Trends Report
March Market Trends Report
March Market Trends Report
March Market Trends Report
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March Market Trends Report

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March Market Trends Report

  1. 1. Return on Investment January 2000 – March 2013MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
  2. 2. Pending Home Sales110105100 95 90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
  3. 3. Pending Home Sales110105 100 = Historically Healthy Level100 January 2012 – January 2013959085 January 2011 – January 201280 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
  4. 4. New Home SALES January 2013 Sales +28.9% +15.6% Compared to Compared toDecember 2012 January 2012 Census 3/1/2013
  5. 5. “While gross domestic product is expected to be negatively impacted by all the uncertainty surrounding the nations impending debt ceiling debate and the risk of sequestration, the housing sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said.”PoliticalUncertainty Housing Wire 2/25/2013
  6. 6. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory 5.0 4.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
  7. 7. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale10.0 9.0 8.0 2011 7.0 6.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2012 1.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
  8. 8. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale7.06.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market5.0 < 4 Months = Sellers’ Market4.03.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
  9. 9. Calculated Risk 2/2013
  10. 10. New Home Inventory Calculated Risk 2/2013
  11. 11. Months Supply & Impact on Price Months Market Pricing 1- 4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation
  12. 12. FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2012 1Q HPI Report
  13. 13. FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2012 2Q HPI Report
  14. 14. FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2012 3Q HPI Report
  15. 15. FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2012 4Q HPI Report
  16. 16. 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
  17. 17. FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2/2013
  18. 18. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
  19. 19. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices8.0% Year-over-Year Change in Prices 6.8%6.0% 5.5% 4.3%4.0% 3.6% 2.0%2.0% 1.1% 0.6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May0.0% -0.5% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-2.0% -1.7% -2.5%-4.0% -3.5% -3.9%-6.0% S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
  20. 20. Year-over-Year Price IncreasesIndex IncreaseCase Shiller 6.8%LPS 5.8%CoreLogic 8.3%FHFA (4th Quarter) 5.5%
  21. 21. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year Metropolitan Area Year-over-YearAtlanta 9.9% Miami 10.6%Boston 3.6% Minneapolis 12.2%Charlotte 5.3% New York -0.5Chicago 2.2% Phoenix 23.0%Cleveland 2.9% Portland 6.5%Dallas 6.5% San Diego 9.2%Denver 8.5% San Francisco 14.4%Detroit 13.6% Seattle 8.2%Las Vegas 12.9% Tampa 7.2%Los Angeles 10.2% Washington 5.9% S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
  22. 22. Home Prices in the Short Term150.00 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 PROJECTED?145.00140.00135.00130.00 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
  23. 23. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area M-o-M Metropolitan Area M-o-MAtlanta 0.3 Miami 0.8Boston 0.1 Minneapolis -0.1Charlotte -0.4 New York -0.4Chicago -0.7 Phoenix 0.9Cleveland -0.1 Portland -0.5Dallas -0.1 San Diego 0.4Denver -0.3 San Francisco 0.7Detroit -0.6 Seattle -0.5Las Vegas 1.8 Tampa 0.2Los Angeles 1.1 Washington -0.1 S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
  24. 24. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History5.25 54.75 4.5 2/2011 – 3/20134.25 43.75 3.53.25 Federal Reserve 3/1/2013
  25. 25. Mortgage Rates Moving Forward“After reaching record lows in 2012,mortgage rates are expected to creep upslowly in 2013, the Mortgage BankersAssociation (MBA)predicted.” The MBA projects 30 year mortgage rates will hit 4.4% by the end of the year.MarketWatch 10/24/2012
  26. 26. Mortgage Rates - 30 year fixed 3.6 12/01/2012 – 3/1/2013 3.55 3.5 3.45 3.4 3.35 3.3 Freddie Mac 3/1/2013
  27. 27. Impact of Increasing Rates Price Rate P&I 200,000 3.4 886.96 200,000 4.4 1,001.52 Monthly Savings $114.56
  28. 28. Bernanke on Interest Rates“If, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)anticipates, the economic recovery continues at a moderatepace, with unemployment slowly declining and inflationexpectations remaining near 2 percent, then long-terminterest rates would be expected to rise graduallytoward more normal levels over the next several years…The precise timing and pace of theincrease will depend importantly on howeconomic conditions develop, however,and is subject to considerable two-sideduncertainty.” Federal Reserve 3/1/2013
  29. 29. Housing America’s Future:New Directions for National Policy“The report proposed a reformed system of housing financein which the private sector plays a far more prominent role inbearing credit risk while promoting a greater diversity offunding sources available for mortgage financing.The problems we face in housing are sosignificant and so urgent today that inactionis no longer a viable option… It is thereforethe commission’s hope that 2013 will be theyear that Congress and the administrationfinally elevate housing to the top of thenational policy agenda and give housingthe dedicated attention it deserves.” Bipartisan Policy Center 3/1/2013
  30. 30. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales35% 35%30%25% 23%20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
  31. 31. Shadow Inventory “Shadow inventory never hit full force, so now I think we’re at a point where the pendulum has swung completely the other way and the housing market needs more inventory, so 2013 would be a serendipitous time for banks to release that inventory.” Daren Blomquist, VP of RealtyTrac He expects 600,000 REOs in 2013 and short sales to exceed the 2012 number, which will likely be around 1 million.DSNews 2/22/2013
  32. 32. FORECLOSURES CNN Money 2013100 hardest hit zips in 2012
  33. 33. CoreLogic 2/28/2013
  34. 34. Short Sales Moving Forward “Short sales don’t seem to be going away anytime soon...I think 2013 and 2014 are going to be all about the short sale.” Wingspan Portfolio Advisors CEO Steven Horne “I think we’re going to set a new record for short sales in 2013.” Rick Sharga, EVP of Carrington MortgageHousingWire 2/21/2013
  35. 35. Login to KCM and download your copy
  36. 36. How are you preparing for real estate’s new market reality? FREE WEBINARwww.keepingcurrentmatters.com/newmarketreality
  37. 37. Building Trust is Important “Weary of misinformation, people are making integrity a new form of competitive advantage… More important than ever to building brand equity and differentiation, trust has become a precious commodity.” Ford 2013
  38. 38. ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link3,4,7,8, Pending Home Sales, Month’s Inventory of http://www.realtor.org9 Homes for Sale5 New Home Sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/02/25/nabe-economic-uncertainties-remain-one-6 Political Uncertainty exception10 Existing Home Inventory www.calculatedriskblog.com http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/02/new-home-sales-at-437000-saar-in-11 New Home Inventory january.html18 FHFA State Home Prices http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25010/2012Q4HPI.pdf19,21, S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices, Home http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1223,24, Prices in the Short Term, Year Over Year Price 4534799496625 Increases http://www.lpsvcs.com/Products/CapitalMarkets/PredictiveModeling/Pages/LPSHomePri21 Year Over Year Price Increases ceIndex.aspx, http://www.lpsvcs.com/Products/CapitalMarkets/PredictiveModeling/ Pages/LPSHomePriceIndex.aspx 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History,25, 27 http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Moving Forward, Impact of http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-26, 28 Increasing Rates 10-24 KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  39. 39. ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link29 Bernake on Interest Rates http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20130301a.htm30 Housing America’s Future http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/BPC_Housing%20Report_web.pdf31 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org http://www.dsnews.com/articles/lack-of-inventory-not-shadow-is-real-concern-2013-02-32 Shadow Inventory 2233 Foreclosures http://money.cnn.com/interactive/real-estate/foreclosure-rate/2013/ http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-34 Largest Foreclosure Inventory january-2013.pdf http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/02/21/mba-servicing-short-sales-stay-popular-35 Short Sales Moving Forward next-two-years39 Building Trust is Important http://media.ford.com/images/10031/fordtrendbook2013.pdf KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
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