10 Influenza Pandemic Models By Claude Penland, Associate of the Casualty Actuarial Society www.CatRisky.com
What are we doing? <ul><li>We will discuss some different types of influenza pandemic models.  </li></ul><ul><li>This is n...
What is a Pandemic? <ul><li>Pandemics are infectious disease epidemics that spread across a wide region.  </li></ul><ul><l...
1. Society of Actuaries <ul><li>The  Society of Actuaries’ model  evaluates the potential impact on the United States  lif...
2. Pandemic Influenza  Policy Model <ul><li>Military Medicine  looks at a policy model for military public health official...
3. Risk Management Solutions <ul><li>The model  by a  catastrophe risk modeling  firm, Risk Management Solutions (RMS), su...
4. FluTE  <ul><li>FluTE  is an open source model.  </li></ul><ul><li>The model is calibrated so that  outcomes are consist...
5. Milliman  <ul><li>Milliman, a consulting actuary,  has modeled  pandemics so that they may price mortality catastrophe ...
6. Epidemic Simulation System  <ul><li>The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), which is at the...
7. INFORMS Simulation Society  <ul><li>At the INFORMS Simulation Society Winter Conference of 2009, a  paper was presented...
8. Global Epidemic Model  <ul><li>The  Global Epidemic Model  (GEM) enables testing of intervention strategies.  </li></ul...
9. VirSim <ul><li>VirSim  was developed to help support policy making.  </li></ul><ul><li>Governments can decide on interv...
10. University of South Florida <ul><li>The  University of South Florida’s model  performs simulations for development of ...
Other Models <ul><li>Some other models include  Georgia Tech’s , The  University of Western Australia’s , a  Biological Mo...
Other Sources <ul><li>Additional sources are  PandemicSimulation .com , a pandemic simulation community website,  NPR ,  T...
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Pandemic Models (Modeling) - Influenza (Flu) by Claude Penland, Actuary

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Models from the Society of Actuaries, Risk Management Solutions, Military Science, Milliman, INFORMS, Los Alamos, VirSim, open source alternatives and others are discussed.

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Pandemic Models (Modeling) - Influenza (Flu) by Claude Penland, Actuary

  1. 1. 10 Influenza Pandemic Models By Claude Penland, Associate of the Casualty Actuarial Society www.CatRisky.com
  2. 2. What are we doing? <ul><li>We will discuss some different types of influenza pandemic models. </li></ul><ul><li>This is not intended to be a comprehensive look at the state of pandemic modeling, and instead is merely a discussion of some interesting flu pandemic models. </li></ul>
  3. 3. What is a Pandemic? <ul><li>Pandemics are infectious disease epidemics that spread across a wide region. </li></ul><ul><li>Recent pandemics include the flu pandemic of 2009 and the HIV pandemic. </li></ul><ul><li>Historical pandemics have also included outbreaks of tuberculosis and smallpox. </li></ul>
  4. 4. 1. Society of Actuaries <ul><li>The Society of Actuaries’ model evaluates the potential impact on the United States life insurance industry . </li></ul><ul><li>Actuarial analysis looks at possible economic effects as well as potential excess insured mortality. </li></ul>
  5. 5. 2. Pandemic Influenza Policy Model <ul><li>Military Medicine looks at a policy model for military public health officials. </li></ul><ul><li>This Pandemic Influenza Policy Model (PIPM) is a collaborative computer modeling effort between the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and U.S. Department of Defense. </li></ul><ul><li>Incidentally, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s “Best Practices and Model Protocols” provides many interesting discussions of model inputs. </li></ul>
  6. 6. 3. Risk Management Solutions <ul><li>The model by a catastrophe risk modeling firm, Risk Management Solutions (RMS), supplies thousands of unique pandemic scenarios. </li></ul><ul><li>These vary based on demographics, virus infectiousness, vaccine production and efficacy, lethality of virus and pandemic lifecycle. </li></ul><ul><li>Additional information is available at “Managing Influenza Pandemic Risk” . </li></ul>
  7. 7. 4. FluTE <ul><li>FluTE is an open source model. </li></ul><ul><li>The model is calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) and 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) influenza viruses. </li></ul>
  8. 8. 5. Milliman <ul><li>Milliman, a consulting actuary, has modeled pandemics so that they may price mortality catastrophe bonds. </li></ul><ul><li>It is an actuarial model based on a frequency and severity approach. </li></ul>
  9. 9. 6. Epidemic Simulation System <ul><li>The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), which is at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, has the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). </li></ul><ul><li>EpiSimS models the U.S. as fifteen regions. </li></ul><ul><li>Each region is composed of around 20 million synthetic individuals. </li></ul>
  10. 10. 7. INFORMS Simulation Society <ul><li>At the INFORMS Simulation Society Winter Conference of 2009, a paper was presented on a simulation model for pandemic preparedness planning. </li></ul><ul><li>The paper presents a geospatial and temporal disease spread model for flu pandemics with particular attention paid to school closings. </li></ul>
  11. 11. 8. Global Epidemic Model <ul><li>The Global Epidemic Model (GEM) enables testing of intervention strategies. </li></ul><ul><li>It uses uses population data and airline travel data to create an air travel network among the major metropolitan areas of the world. </li></ul><ul><li>It then models the course of the potential epidemic as it spreads around the world. </li></ul>
  12. 12. 9. VirSim <ul><li>VirSim was developed to help support policy making. </li></ul><ul><li>Governments can decide on intervention strategies, and lost work and hospitalization effects on society are documented. </li></ul>
  13. 13. 10. University of South Florida <ul><li>The University of South Florida’s model performs simulations for development of dynamic mitigation strategies. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Other Models <ul><li>Some other models include Georgia Tech’s , The University of Western Australia’s , a Biological Model for Influenza Transmission , a model of Japan and an Avian-human influenza epidemic model . </li></ul>
  15. 15. Other Sources <ul><li>Additional sources are PandemicSimulation .com , a pandemic simulation community website, NPR , The Scientist and MAA . </li></ul><ul><li>See www.CatRisky.com for catastrophe risk trends and news. </li></ul><ul><li>Thank you! </li></ul>

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