The Importance of the Future

THE IMPORTANCE OF THEFUTURELloyd MelnickCasual Connect2012

AgendaBackgroundCurrent state of analyticsAnalytics 2.0Summary

BACKGROUND

Lloyd Melnick

FiveOneNine Games Capitol FiveOneNine EW Scripps Broadcasting Games

Our Business Strategy GAME GAME DEVELOPER PUBLISHER • Campaign Story • Publishing launches next Program month launched this week

Analytics and gaming Statistical Tools Predictive Models Data Mining In-Game Analytics Tools 7

Analytics and Gaming In-Game Statistical Tools Analytics (Predictions) (Dashboards) • What • What will Happened? Happen?

Customer Lifetime ValueMost Important Metric Future Better Current Business Predicted Lifetime Decisions Lifetime Value Value $$$$

CURRENT STATE OF ANALYTICS

In-Game Analytics Tools DAU Session K-Factor Times Lifetime Virtual 2-day Goods retention Sold 7-day retention Visualization of Game Metrics 11

In-Game Analytics • Easy Visualization of high level metrics Executive Dashboards • Ability to address immediate concerns Ad-Hoc Reports • Where exactly is the problem? Query/Drilldown • What actions are needed? Alerts Kontagent, Mixpanel, Honeytracks, CollectTM & MeasureTM (by GamesAnalytics) 12

ANALYTICS 2.0

STATISTICAL Analysis • Are there statistically significant Correlations and CHI associations among factors? SQ • Are there statistically significant T-tests & ANOVA differences among groups in usage or monetization? • What are the factors (i.e.: gender, age) Regression Analysis that “significantly” impact revenue and by how much? • How are the high value players Outlier Analysis monetizing differently than most players? Excel, R, SAS, SPSS, STATA, SWRVE, PredictTM 14

Forecasting • How much revenue will we bring in next quarter? Time Series Analysis • How many users will we have in the future (near term)? Excel, R, SAS, SPSS, STATA 15

Predictive Modeling • Who is more likely to monetize? Logistic • Who is more likely to react to in-game Regressions, Decision messaging? Trees, etc. • What will be the lifetime of a user? • How long will it take for users to Survival Analysis monetize? (time to first purchase) • What factors impact the retention of the users? R, SAS, SPSS, STATA, PredictTM, MeasureTM (by GamesAnalytics) 16

Data Mining • Are there clear “segments” among our Clustering users that could be approached (Segmentation) Analysis differently? • Are there items that sell “together”? Association Analysis • How do users feel about our games? • What are the main topics of conversation Text Mining (Consumer for our Twitter followers? Sentiment Analysis) • Are comments on our Facebook page mostly positive or negative? SAS Enterprise Miner, SPSS Modeler, Weka, PredictTM 17

Simulation • How long do tasks in our game take to play on average? Monte–Carlo • What happens if we tweak the rules of Simulation the game? Excel, R, Risk Solver, SAS, SPSS, STATA 18

Optimization • What is the optimal price for the virtual goods? Price Optimization • What is the optimal allocation of resources for supporting the game? Linear Programing R, Risk Solver, Oracle Cristal Ball, SAS 19

SUMMARY

Huge opportunities to use analyticsbetterAnalytics is the foundation of business and games deepinsightThey help you optimize production and marketingdecisionsThey help improve the game and the user experienceAdding predictive modeling to in-game analytics lays thefoundation for additional optimization of business decisions

Thank you!Lloyd.melnick@fiveoneninegames.comTwitter: Lloyd Melnickhttp://lloydmelnick.com/

The Importance of the Future

by Lloyd Melnick on Jul 29, 2012

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