Market Intelligence     January 2013
Summary 2013 is predicted to be a year of low growth at best Contingent staffing numbers have reached an 11 year high Unem...
Contents Labour market headlines Economic & political backdrop Job vacancy data Job vacancies by industry with Q1 versus Q...
Labour Market Headlines – Dec 2012 The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 71.2%, up 0.1% on May to July 2012...
Economic BackdropRecovery is sluggish with a forecasted decline of 0.1% for 2012 and a rise of just 1.2% in 2013 and 2% in...
Job Vacancy Data Vacancies are defined as positions for which employers are actively seeking to recruit outside their busi...
Job Vacancies by IndustrySept - Nov 2012 with Q on Q change70,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000         -1.9%   +13....
Contingent Worker Numbers (000’s) Contingent workers are those who say their main job is non-permanent (defined as a fixed...
UK Employee Trends    UK EMPLOYEE TRENDS                                 ALL EMPLOYEES                        CONTINGENT W...
Sector AnalysisWhich sectors are likely to see the greatest demand for agency and permanent staff overthe next 12 months?T...
Sources of Data
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Carlisle Managed Services Market Intelligence Report January 2013

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​Our Market Intelligence Reports offer a unique and in-depth perspective on the workforce solutions industry. In this edition, we will be covering UK employee trends, comprehensive sector analysis and reporting on why 2013 is predicted to be a year of low growth. Visit http://www.carlislems.co.uk to find out more.

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Carlisle Managed Services Market Intelligence Report January 2013

  1. 1. Market Intelligence January 2013
  2. 2. Summary 2013 is predicted to be a year of low growth at best Contingent staffing numbers have reached an 11 year high Unemployment is steadily improving with 500,000 net permanent jobs created in 2012 Accommodation/Food Services sectors are showing the strongest growth, with some small gains also in the public sector The largest decline, again, came from Information & Communication
  3. 3. Contents Labour market headlines Economic & political backdrop Job vacancy data Job vacancies by industry with Q1 versus Q2 changes Contingent worker numbers UK employment trends Sector analysis Data sources
  4. 4. Labour Market Headlines – Dec 2012 The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 71.2%, up 0.1% on May to July 2012 and up 0.9% on a year earlier. There were 29.6m people in employment aged 16+, up 40,000 on May to July 2012 and up 499,000 on a year earlier. The unemployment rate was 7.8% of the economically active population, down 0.2% on May to July 2012 and down 0.5% on a year earlier. There were 2.51m unemployed people, down 82,000 on May to July 2012 and down 128,000 on a year earlier. The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 22.6%, up 0.1% on May to July 2012 but down 0.6% on a year earlier. There were 9.07m economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64, up 60,000 on May to July 2012 but down 249,000 on a year earlier. Total pay (including bonuses) rose by 1.8% compared with August to October 2011. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 1.7% compared with August to October 2011.
  5. 5. Economic BackdropRecovery is sluggish with a forecasted decline of 0.1% for 2012 and a rise of just 1.2% in 2013 and 2% in 2014.Chancellor warns of austerity measures into 2018, beyond the original timetable.Consensus forecasts for GDP are -0.3% for 2012 and +1.1% for 2013.Looking ahead, unemployment is improving with around 500,000 net jobs created in 2012, business investment is trendingupwards and Services Sector output is showing some growth.On the plus side: Negative or still in the balance: Claimant count fell by 3,000 on the month – another reversal. GDP decline of -0.3% over the past year. Employment rose by 40,000 on the quarter to 29.6m. Growth came Manufacturing output fell by 1.3% in October 2012 and by 1.8% from full time jobs, with part time employees flat and self employed in on the year. decline. Temporary employees fell slightly to stand 97,000 up on the year, still close to recent Olympics-boosted peak. CPI Inflation rate stands at 2.7%, unchanged from October, but 0.5% ahead of September. Services Sector output shows an annual rise of 1.7% and +1.1% versus prior Q. Retail sales volume rose by 0.9% versus prior year but flat versus prior month. Job vacancies rose by 8,000 in November, but again with all the growth from very large or very small companies. Vacancies are now 30,000 or 6.4% up on the year.
  6. 6. Job Vacancy Data Vacancies are defined as positions for which employers are actively seeking to recruit outside their business or organisation. There were 489,000 job vacancies for September to November 2012, up 8,000 from June to August 2012 and up 30,000 on a year earlier. There were 1.8 vacancies per 100 employee jobs for September to November 2012, unchanged from June to August 2012 but up 0.1 on a year earlier. Thousands Vacancies, seasonally adjusted 500 490 480 470 460 450 440 Source: Vacancy Survey – Office For National Statistics
  7. 7. Job Vacancies by IndustrySept - Nov 2012 with Q on Q change70,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000 -1.9% +13.8% -10.2% +5.6% -1.6% +20.4% -5.4% +4.4% +6.3% 0
  8. 8. Contingent Worker Numbers (000’s) Contingent workers are those who say their main job is non-permanent (defined as a fixed term contract, agency work, seasonal work or casual work). The number of contingent workers (temporary workers and contractors) fell by 0.5% or 8,000 in the 3 months ending October 2012, consolidating recent gains but still near an eleven year high. Annual numbers gained 97,000 or 6.3% on prior year. 6.4% of all employees in the UK are currently deemed temporary. Two thirds are female workers. Contingent Workers 1650 1600 1550 1500 1450 Aug-Oct 11 Nov-Jan 12 Feb-Apr 12 May-Jul 12 Aug-Oct 12
  9. 9. UK Employee Trends UK EMPLOYEE TRENDS ALL EMPLOYEES CONTINGENT WORKERS Change on year Change on year Change % Change % (000’s) (000’s) Managers & senior officials 240 5.2 -3 -3.5 Professional occupations 105 2.7 5 1.9 Associate professional & technical 113 2.6 7 3.5 Admin & secretarial -33 -1.1 4 4 Skilled trades -95 -3.1 9 12.3 Personal services -49 -1.9 9 5 Sales and customer services 81 3.8 22 20.2 Process, plant & machine operatives 8 0.4 20 18.2 Elementary occupations 42 1.2 79 25.6Managerial/Senior Professionals - a solid rise in the permanent market but a decline in the temporary market.Professional Occupations - dipped across both markets over the previous quarter but improved year on year.Associate Professional & Technical - steady increases across both markets.Office Support - a decline in the permanent market and an increase in the temporary market, perhaps indicating that some of these rolesare being filled on a temporary basis.Skilled Trades - a decline year on year but an increase over the prior quarter in the permanent market. There has been a significant upturnin the temporary market.Process, Plant and Machine Operatives - a small increase in the permanent market and asharp decline in the temporary market.Elementary Occupations - a small annual increase in the permanent market and a largeincrease in the temporary market.
  10. 10. Sector AnalysisWhich sectors are likely to see the greatest demand for agency and permanent staff overthe next 12 months?The sector scores are based on employers’ hiring expectations over the short and medium term. The scores are calculated from the net increase or decrease, averaged over 3months. Individual responses are scored proportionate to the amount of expected change and aggregated to give a net value for each Sector.Industrial and Accounting/Financial were noted as the growth areas for permanent staffing by employers in October 2012. Industrial was the only sector to look forward toimprovement for temporary staffing.TEMPORARY & CONTRACT STAFFING Accounting & Medical, Engineering & Sales & Professional Office Industrial Technology Financial Hospitality Nursing & Education Technical Retail Managerial Professionals Services Social Care 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mthsTrend 43 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 43 6 6 6 5 43 6 6 6 6 5 5Nov +95 +70 +55 +15 +135 +90 +20 -10 -5 +10 +45 +15 +35 +5 +30 +10 +20 0 +15 +15Oct +95 +75 +60 +10 +90 +50 +55 +10 -5 +20 +70 +25 +30 +5 +40 +25 +25 +5 +10 -5PERMANENT STAFFING Accounting & Medical, Engineering & Sales & Professional Office Industrial Technology Financial Hospitality Nursing & Education Technical Retail Managerial Professionals Services Social Care 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mthsTrend 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 43Nov +240 +210 +200 +210 +320 +305 +165 +115 +85 +75 +180 +150 +125 +105 +140 +165 +145 +155 +100 +90Oct +215 +185 +240 +230 +245 +220 +170 +125 +90 +70 +160 +130 +100 +100 +165 +155 +160 +160 +80 +90
  11. 11. Sources of Data
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