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An emerging cement majorbuilding shareholder value  and prosperity in Africa       Group presentation        November 2012
DisclaimerThis document is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Any securities discussed herein have ...
At a glance• Largest producer in Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa    – Clear leader in Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest...
Investment highlights                                  • Political stability and economic transformation sustaining 6% gro...
Investment highlights                                    • Superior margins from long-term, favourable gas contracts at Ob...
Jan-Sep 2012 highlightsOperational    – Cement sales up 19.7% to 7.7 million tonnes    – Flooding hits demand and distribu...
Revenue up on new capacityNine months to            Jan-Sep   Jan-Sep30 September 2012          2011      2012     Change ...
Strong balance sheetNine months to30 September 2012                              Dec 2011   Sept 2012   Comments          ...
A roadmap for expansion              FY 2011                                   FY 2012                                    ...
Africa’s rising trends• Political & economic stability• Strong GDP growth across the continent• Middle class, consumerisat...
A significant opportunity                                                                        Cement consumption and GD...
Nigeria’s infrastructure gap• Poor transport a major barrier to growth    –   Just 30% of 193,000km roads paved    –   Pav...
Nigeria’s demand drivers• Strong GDP growth; 6-7% sustainable                            Actual and forecast Real GDP grow...
Favourable market dynamics                                                                    Per capita cement consumptio...
Unrivalled market leadership                                                                 Estimated Nigerian capacity 2...
Multiple margin drivers• Gas fuel is major margin driver                                      Revenue and PBT development ...
Largest distribution network• Extending reach with new capacity    – Ibese opening covers Lagos and South West    – Obajan...
Expanding for African growth• Africa’s economic growth is a major opportunity    – Rising demand for cement, but structura...
Strong export potential• Economic Community of West African States    – 15 countries, >310m people    – Ave. 6.2% GDP grow...
Update on projects• Senegal commissioning to begin in mid November    – Power plant commissioning expected to take 3-4 wee...
Strong governance a priority• Appointment of new CFO with extensive experience in Governance issues• Conversion to IFRS at...
Summary• A unique platform to capture Africa’s rapid expansion    – Strategy to become the continent’s leader in cement pr...
Appendix 1: Nigerian growth• Total production capacity will be                                                        Esti...
Appendix 2: African economies                       Estimated population              CAGR                           Per c...
Appendix 3: Attractive pricingEstimated retail cement price per tonne in Dangote target markets ($)       240       220   ...
Appendix 4: Rapid urbanisationUrbanisation trends in Dangote Cement target markets (%)100 90                              ...
Investor relationsEquity research is provided by the following analysts:Broker                  Analyst             Locati...
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Dangote Cement Group Presentation November 2012

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Transcript of "Dangote Cement Group Presentation November 2012"

  1. 1. An emerging cement majorbuilding shareholder value and prosperity in Africa Group presentation November 2012
  2. 2. DisclaimerThis document is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Any securities discussed herein have not been and will not be registered under the USSecurities Act of 1933, as amended (the “US Securities Act”) and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption fromregistration under the US Securities Act.No public offering of any securities discussed herein is being made in the United States and the information contained herein does not constitute an offeringof securities for sale in the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan. This document is not for distribution directly or indirectly into the United States,Canada, Australia or Japan or to US persons.This document is addressed only to and directed at persons in member states of the European Economic Area who are “Qualified Investors” within themeaning of Article 2(1)(e) of the Prospectus Directive. In addition, in the United Kingdom, this document is being distributed to and is directed only atQualified Investors (i) who are investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotions)Order 2005 (the “Order”) or (ii) persons who are high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2) of the Order, or (iii) persons to whom it may otherwise belawfully communicated (all such persons being referred to as “Relevant Persons”).This document must not be acted on or relied on (i) in the United Kingdom by persons who are not Relevant Persons and (ii) in any member state of theEuropean Economic Area by persons who are not Qualified Investors.By attending this presentation / accepting this document you will be taken to have represented, warranted and undertaken that you are a Relevant Person(as defined above). Not for distribution directly or indirectly into the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan or to US persons. 2
  3. 3. At a glance• Largest producer in Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa – Clear leader in Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest cement market – 19mt capacity, delivering ca. 60% market share – Three plants in excellent locations, supported by strong distribution• Delivering superior financial performance – FY 2011 sales: ₦235.9bn ($1.5bn); 56% EBITDA margin – 8.6mt cement sold @ ca. $173/tonne – Strong operating cash flow - ₦164bn from operations (FY 2011) – Modest Net Debt/EBITDA (1x) positions company for strong growth – Strong ROE of 41%• Highly efficient operations – Largest plant, Obajana, achieving 100% utilisation (FY 2011) – 12mt new, higher-margin capacity replaces imports to meet demand• Largest company on Nigerian Stock Exchange – Market capitalisation $13bn; ca. 28% of NSE – LSE listing planned to comply with NSE rules; extra 20% stock  25% free float – A bellwether on the African growth story 3
  4. 4. Investment highlights • Political stability and economic transformation sustaining 6% growth across the continent African megatrends driving • Population growth, younger demographic and rapid urbanisation driving housing, infrastructure GDP growth are accelerating • Infrastructure improvements unlocking resources, agriculture, with strong multiplier effects consumption of cement • Increasing investment, improved banking/mortgages, emerging middle class spending • High cement pricing ($170/tonne) sustained by historic deficit and broad construction demand Attractive Nigerian market • Strong upside from low per-capita base (105kg), driven by rapid GDP expansion (7%) provides solid foundation for • High Government commitment to infrastructure, funded by oil and diverted fuel subsidy expansion into Africa • Ideally located for exports into ECOWAS tax-free trade zone, with cash export incentives • Substantial investment required, but global cement majors focused on reducing debt burdens Multiple and high barriers • Highly technical building and engineering, skills availability a challenge, local knowledge to entry in Nigerian and other • Non-African cement imports taxed heavily; Nigerian ban on imports from 2012 African markets • Poor infrastructure means good location is vital – near raw materials, fuel supply and markets • Nigerian capacity more than doubling to 19mt in 2012; plans for 32-35mt by 2015 Extending leadership with • High ROI on brownfield expansions at Obajana 3 and Ibese 3&4, under EPC contractshigh-margin, high ROI expansion • High-margin new capacity eliminates need for lower-margin imports; well-established markets • By far Nigeria’s largest and most extensive distribution network; assessing feasibility of rail links 4
  5. 5. Investment highlights • Superior margins from long-term, favourable gas contracts at Obajana and Ibese plantsStrong competitive advantages • Very high utilisation; superior and reliable European and Chinese technology, highly skilled engineers drive Nigerian profitability, • Excellent locations serving key regions, supported by 5,000+ trucks, 100 depots by mid 2012 providing cash for expansion • Able to open new markets in previously untapped regions, or export surplus via own terminals • A clear strategy to be a leader in Africa’s key growth markets; 51mt total capacity by FY 2015African investments will broaden • Strong demand and pricing, tax breaks, favourable export potential (ECOWAS, EAC, SADC) reach, diversify business across • Expanding with EPC contracts funded by strong Nigerian cash flow and local debt growing economies • Smaller-sized plants, easier to build/manage, good economies of scale across continent • $1.5bn revenue 2011 FY, with good growth expected in 2012/13 as 12mt capacity comes onstream Already delivering outstanding • Upside potential on 56% 2011 FY EBITDA margins as new gas-fired plants enter the mix financial performance • Excellent financial progress despite fuel, wage increases, demonstrating strong focus on margins and above-average returns • Highly cash generative, low debt vs peers, good dividend, pioneer tax status on new projects • Founder backed by strength and depth in management team with decades of experience Visionary entrepreneur, • Improving governance and disclosure; IFRS adopted Q1 2012, improving internal controls experienced management and • High environmental standards in operation at plants, exceeding European requirements strengthening governance • Strong social programme through Dangote Foundation; significant help for local communities 5
  6. 6. Jan-Sep 2012 highlightsOperational – Cement sales up 19.7% to 7.7 million tonnes – Flooding hits demand and distribution – 7.5 million tonnes locally produced, up 50.7% on Jan-Sep 2011 – Gas supply back to normal at Ibese, approaching normal at Obajana – Tim Surridge appointed Chief Financial OfficerFinancial – Revenue up 19.8% to ₦208.3bn ($1.3bn) – EBIT up 24.0% to ₦115.5bn, 55.5% margin ($0.73bn) – Pre-tax profit up 13.5% to ₦105.8bn ($0.67bn) – Earnings per share up 17.4% to ₦6.35* – Net debt of ₦134.2bn ($0.86bn) * prior-year adjusted for 1-for-10 bonus share as per IAS33 par.28 6
  7. 7. Revenue up on new capacityNine months to Jan-Sep Jan-Sep30 September 2012 2011 2012 Change CommentsSales volume (kt) 6,410 7,672 19.7% Q3 sales affected by heavy rains and flooding in Kogi and Benue statesLocal cement despatched 4,998 7,529 50.7% 100% of Q3 sales were locally produced cementAnalysis for Nigerian Nigeria Nigeriacement operations only (₦bn) (₦bn)Revenue 173.8 207.8 19.8% Increase mostly resulting from higher volume on flat pricingRevenue per tonne (₦) 27,120 27,090 -0.1% Price remaining stable throughout 2012EBITDA 104.3 132.8 27.3% Increase resulting from higher volumes and greater marginsEBITDA / tonne (₦) 16,264 17,313 6.5% Reflects higher proportion of locally produced cement (vs lower-margin imports)EBITDA margin 60.0% 63.9% 3.9pp Trending upwards as gas supply returns to normalGroup analysis (₦bn) (₦bn)Revenue 173.8 208.3 19.8%EBIT 93.2 115.5 24.0%EBIT margin 53.6% 55.4% 1.8ppProfit before tax 93.2 105.8 13.5%Earnings per share (₦) 5.41 6.35 17.4% Both adjusted for 1-for-10 bonus issue of shares in 2012 7
  8. 8. Strong balance sheetNine months to30 September 2012 Dec 2011 Sept 2012 Comments (₦bn) (₦bn)Non-current assets 465.5 520.1Current assets 76.2 129.4Total assets 541.7 649.5Total equity 298.8 379.8Long term debts 125.9 142.5Non-current liabilities 129.4 146.9Current liabilities 113.5 122.7Total liabilities 242.9 269.7Total equity & liabilities 541.7 649.5 8
  9. 9. A roadmap for expansion FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2015 8mt capacity 20.75mt capacity 51.0mt capacity• Two plants in Nigeria, 8mt capacity • Nigerian capacity increased to 20.25mt • Nigerian capacity 32mt • Obajana 5mt • Obajana 10.25mt • Obajana 13mt • Gboko 3mt • Ibese 6mt • Ibese 12mt • Gboko 3mt • Gboko 4mt• Clear market leader, 50% share • Calabar 3mt (TBC)• 50 depots, most extensive distribution • Market share extended, ca. 70%• Leading importer (from Far East) • 100 depots, 4,000+ trucks • Fully operational in 15 countries • Margin gains from new capacity • 47.0mt production capacity (TBC)• $1.5bn revenue • Margin gains as imports end • 4.0mt import on ECOWAS coast• $0.82bn EBITDA, 56% margin • Ibese serving high-growth South West• Ca.22% sales imported (lower margin) • Obajana opening new regional markets • ECOWAS strategy fully operational• Modest net debt vs peers: $0.8bn • Exporting across other African borders• High ROE – 41% • 1mt Gboko expansion due Q1 2013 • 1.5mt Senegal plant commissioned • Operating in robust, growth markets• Capacity expansion underway • Convert Nigerian terminals for export • Demand, deficits sustain pricing • Obajana: 5mt brownfield • Well-diversified regional exposure • Ibese: 6mt new plant • Work begins on new Nigerian capacity • Largest/major player in all markets • Gboko: 1mt process upgrades • Obajana +3mt by 2015 • Strong profitability, cash generation • Senegal: 1.5mt new plant • Ibese +6mt by 2015 • High barriers to entry • Calabar +3mt by 2015 (TBC)• $3.9bn of additional capacity planned • Delivering high returns for shareholders • Fund with Nigerian cash flow • Work underway on African capacity • Raise debt in local markets • 15.0mt production, 8 countries • Africa’s leading cement company • 4.0mt import on ECOWAS coast $1.5bn revenue • An emerging global cement giant $0.82bn EBITDA 9
  10. 10. Africa’s rising trends• Political & economic stability• Strong GDP growth across the continent• Middle class, consumerisation• Population growth• Rapid urbanisation• Younger demographic• Infrastructure improvements• Strengthening financial services• Increasing inward investment• Rapid technological adoption• Unlocking natural resources 10
  11. 11. A significant opportunity Cement consumption and GDP China History shows that demand 1,000 for cement rises rapidly when GDP takes off from a low base Egypt Morocco Algeria Gabon Brazil India Serbia 2020 Senegal South Africa Benin Colombia Per capita Ghana Indonesia cement Nigeria 100 Liberiaconsumption Cameroon Rep. Congo (kg, log scale) Cote dIvoire Zambia Ethiopia Assumptions: 2020 10% growth in cement  ca. 250kg 6% GDP growth Malawi Dangote Cement Per-capita GDP and cement consumption target markets for a basket of emerging-market countries. 10 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 GDP per capita (current US$) 11
  12. 12. Nigeria’s infrastructure gap• Poor transport a major barrier to growth – Just 30% of 193,000km roads paved – Paved roads often poorly maintained – Appalling traffic congestion in cities, even in rural areas – Dysfunctional railways, just 3,500km, little freight carried• Major housing deficit – Housing shortfall estimated at 16m homes • Typical house requires 14 tonnes of cement – Slums a growing problem – Inadequate access to piped water (47%), sanitation (30%) UN forecast of Nigeria’s population growth (m) – Houses typically passed by dirt roads 350 Rural Urban• Inadequate national power 300 – Only 4,400MW grid generation (10% of typical UK draw) 250 – High reliance on domestic and commercial generators 200 2.9% CAGR• Urbanisation widening the infrastrucure gap 150 – Lagos forecast to be 11th largest city by 2020, 16m people 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 12
  13. 13. Nigeria’s demand drivers• Strong GDP growth; 6-7% sustainable Actual and forecast Real GDP growth – Set to become Africa’s leading economy 9% 8% – Increasingly diverse and robust, with rebase expected 7% – Growth in services, manufacturing, retail 6% 5% – Vast oil and gas resources – 37bn barrels proven reserve 4% 3%• National ambition set by Vision 20:2020 2% 1% – Top-20 global economy by 2020, GDP of $900bn 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E – Per capita income of $4,000 (from $1,230 in 2008) Source: National Bureau of Statistics• Africa’s most populous country Budgeted capital expenditure (₦bn) – Around 168m at 2011; 3% growth expected 1,800 – Younger demographic boosting housing demand 1,600 – Rapid urbanisation fuelling construction, housing 9.4% CAGR – Emerging middle class consumer with access to finance 1,400 1,643.5 1,539.9• Infrastructure investment a priority 1,200 1,319.9 1,430.9 – Funded by oil, PPP and diversion of petrol subsidy 1,146.8 1,000 – Improving execution rate on major projects – ca. 50% 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 13
  14. 14. Favourable market dynamics Per capita cement consumption (kg)• Increasing demand across all scales of building 500 – FY11 consumption ca. 17mt, production ca. 13mt 400 – High upside potential from low per-capita base, ca. 105kg 300• Attractive pricing (about $170/t) 200 398 420 466 472 479 – Sustained by deficit, poor infrastructure, import pricing 295 100 190 150 105• Markets concentrated; proximity is vital 0 – Raw materials must be near to markets and fuel supply – Good distribution and logistics a key differentiator• Poor road, power infrastructure favours gas fuel Strong growth in cement consumption (mt) – Lower cost and more secure supply than fuel oil, diesel 20 18 – On-site power generation essential 16 10.7% CAGR 14 12• High barriers to entry 10 8 – High start-up costs, build time 2-3 years, highly technical 6 4• Ideal location for export to ECOWAS countries 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 – Leading producer in free trading community Manufactured Imported 14
  15. 15. Unrivalled market leadership Estimated Nigerian capacity 2010-2015 (mt)• Obajana capacity doubled to 10.25mtpa 60 – 100% utilisation in 2011 50 – Gas-fired kilns, power from gas turbines 40 – Low-pollution, low-emission technologies exceed EU norms 30 – Central location, able to open new markets at low cost 20 – Additional 3mtpa planned for 2015 10 0• Ibese opens 6mt in key South West market End 2010 End 2012 End 2015 – Two lines of 3mtpa ramping up, 90km from Lagos Dangote Ashaka Lafarge WAPCO Unicem Sokoto BUA/EDO – Gas kilns, gas turbines, LPFO/coal/diesel back-up Bauichi-Gwana Califco/Cross River/Ebonyi Ibeto Abia (Hermes Juno) – Additional 6mtpa planned for 2015, work underway Estimated end markets• Upgrading Gboko for greater output, efficiency – Two lines of 1.5mt in process of upgrade to 4.0mt total Mass housing Block makers – LPFO/Diesel powered 10% 15% Infrastructure – Assessing feasibility of gas pipeline 20% Individual house• New site planned for Calabar builders 25% Government – MOU signed for 3mt or 6mt (TBC) gas-powered plant (via distributors) – Serving key Southern markets and exports 30% Source: Dangote Cement, industry estimates 15
  16. 16. Multiple margin drivers• Gas fuel is major margin driver Revenue and PBT development (₦bn) – Substantially cheaper than hauling fuel oil, diesel, coal 250 – 20-year supply contracts at very competitive rates 200 – Greater security of supply protects high utilisation 235.7 150 202.6• Strong historic focus on margin improvement 100 – Trending upwards despite recent increases in fuel, wages 129.8 106.6 117.6• Near-term margin expansion 50 61.9 34.6 47.3 20.0 – Immediate gains as local production replaces imports 0 11.6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 – Experienced in working assets at high utilisation (>95%) – Increase proportion of new gas-fired capacity in revenues Cost breakdown – cement production (2011) – Larger Obajana, Ibese plants deliver economies of scale – Improve Gboko performance though process upgrades 8%• Longer-term cost savings 15% Variable – Feasibility of upgrading Gboko to gas for kiln and power Depreciation 56% Fixed – Increase truck capacity to 40 tonnes 21% SG&A – Feasibility of rail links; 1 train could replace 80-100 trucks – Distribution costs will fall as road quality improves 16
  17. 17. Largest distribution network• Extending reach with new capacity – Ibese opening covers Lagos and South West – Obajana focusing on broadening markets• Six new regional HQs – Sales, marketing, logistics, finance• Increasing depot network 2012 – Nigeria’s largest cement distribution network – Reaching all regions, increasing supply O• Major investment in Dangote Fleet G I – 3rd party haulers can’t cope with rising supply – Modern logistical management systems Key Dangote Cement depots 2 in each region• Transforming Nigeria into an exporter O Obajana – Converting import terminals for export I Ibese – Reusing import equipment for new ECOWAS terminals G Gboko• Distribution costs will fall as transport network improves 17
  18. 18. Expanding for African growth• Africa’s economic growth is a major opportunity – Rising demand for cement, but structural deficits in production• $2.5bn investment committed to Africa – Eight plants, five import terminals, EPC contracts signed – Fund with Nigeria cash flow and local debt• Targeting attractive markets – IMF forecasts 4.7% GDP growth across SSA in 2012 – High need for/commitment to infrastructure spending – Rapid urbanisation, housing pressures – Rising cement demand, preferably in deficit markets – Ample resources near to growth centres, export hubs• Export opportunities in Africa’s free trade zones – ECOWAS, EAC, SADC• Welcomed as a major foreign investor – Creating prosperity and thousands of jobs – Helping countries towards self sufficiency in cement – Benefiting from attractive tax and investment incentives Limestone map of Africa 18
  19. 19. Strong export potential• Economic Community of West African States – 15 countries, >310m people – Ave. 6.2% GDP growth forecast in target countries – Strong demand driven by infrastructure, housing – Some state lack raw materials• Attractive trading within ECOWAS FTZ – No duties, cash export incentives – Heavy tax on imports from non-member states• Region’s leading producer – 33.5mt / 36.5mt production capacity by 2015 (TBC) – Around 5mt import capacity by end 2013 – Converting Lagos terminals for export – Repurposing Nigerian equipment for new import terminals• Strategy to supply the region from Nigeria, Senegal – Close proximity reduces shipping time and cost – Faster delivery from order – Highly competitive vs. Far Eastern imports See appendix for statistics on GDP, consumption and production 19
  20. 20. Update on projects• Senegal commissioning to begin in mid November – Power plant commissioning expected to take 3-4 weeks – Plant commissioning will commence soon after – Commercial production expected in January Actual and estimated capex (₦bn)• Project management contracts being readied $1bn ≈ ₦160bn – Selection of seven firms for project management 250 – Engineering Review 200 – Project Monitoring & Inspection 150 – Ibese, Obajana and all African factories covered 100 – Substantially reduce risk of construction delays 50 0 2010A 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Excludes proposed Calabar project 20
  21. 21. Strong governance a priority• Appointment of new CFO with extensive experience in Governance issues• Conversion to IFRS at Q1 2012• Increasing disclosure and transparency – Now setting the highest standards of disclosure in Nigeria• Improving risk management – Redesign and implementation of Policies, Procedures and Internal Controls – Redesign and implementation of Risk Management Framework – Developing risk-based Internal Audit Process – Implementing ERP package (SAP) 21
  22. 22. Summary• A unique platform to capture Africa’s rapid expansion – Strategy to become the continent’s leader in cement production – Benefiting from attractive investment incentives – Strong cement demand and supportive pricing• Leader in SSA’s largest cement market – Expanding highly profitable and efficient Nigerian operations to 70% share – Strong base for export into ECOWAS – High barriers to entry, sustainable competitive advantages, majors hampered by debt,• Highly profitable, excellent return on investment – High EBITDA/tonne; upside as new capacity replaces imports, but depends on gas recovery – Modest net debt/EBITDA vs industry average – Strong cash generation funding investment needs, higher than average ROIC• A bellwether on the African growth story• Visionary entrepreneur and skilled management – Strength and depth; excellent factory managers, outstanding engineers 22
  23. 23. Appendix 1: Nigerian growth• Total production capacity will be Estimated 2015 capacity of Nigerian cement industryabout 55 million tonnes by the end based on existing plants and currently visible projects toof 2015, based on currently visible give a total of 55mt potential capacityprojects 120• Even assuming just 10% CAGR indemand for cement, and 100%utilisation rates, Nigerian demand 100 Cement consumption (million tonnes / year)for cement could outstrip thisplanned new capacity by 2023 80• At faster demand growth or lower 60mtpa = 60production rates, Nigeria will be a 260 kg/person 100% utilisation at 2025 popn.deficit market even earlier – perhaps 80% utilisationas early as 2020? 40 20 0 10% CAGR 12% CAGR 14% CAGR Growth in demand for cement 23
  24. 24. Appendix 2: African economies Estimated population CAGR Per capita GNIDangote markets Urbanisation Real GDP growth (million) 2012-2025 2010 PPP US$ 2012 2025 2050 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013EBenin 9.4 13.5 23.3 2.8% 44% 1,590 5.0% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.5% 3.8%Cameroon 20.9 28.0 44.6 2.3% 49% 2,270 2.6% 2.0% 2.9% 4.2% 4.1% 4.5%Congo 4.2 5.9 10.2 2.6% 63% 3,190 5.6% 7.5% 8.8% 3.4% 4.9% 5.3%Cote dIvoire 20.6 28.1 46.1 2.4% 50% 1,810 2.3% 3.7% 2.4% -4.7% 8.1% 7.0%Ethiopia 87.0 115.0 166.5 2.2% 17% 1,040 11.2% 10.0% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5%Gabon 1.6 2.0 2.8 1.7% 73% 13,060 2.3% -1.4% 6.6% 5.8% 5.6% 2.3%Ghana 25.5 33.4 49.1 2.1% 44% 1,620 8.4% 4.0% 8.0% 14.4% 8.2% 7.8%Liberia 4.2 6.0 10.8 2.8% 47% 340 6.2% 5.3% 6.1% 8.2% 9.0% 7.9%Nigeria 170.1 234.4 402.4 2.5% 51% 2,240 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 7.4% 7.1% 6.7%Senegal 13.1 18.6 32.3 2.7% 42% 1,910 3.7% 2.1% 4.1% 2.5% 3.7% 4.3%Sierra Leone 6.1 7.8 11.1 1.9% 40% 830 5.4% 3.2% 5.3% 6.0% 21.3% 7.5%South Africa 51.1 54.2 57.2 0.5% 62% 10,360 3.6% -1.5% 2.9% 3.1% 2.6% 3.0%Tanzania 47.7 70.9 138.3 3.1% 26% 1,440 7.4% 6.0% 7.0% 6.4% 6.5% 6.8%Togo 6.0 9.4 14.3 3.5% 37% 890 2.4% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.0% 5.3%Zambia 13.7 20.7 44.5 3.2% 39% 1,380 5.7% 6.4% 7.6% 6.6% 6.5% 8.2%Total Dangote 481.2 647.9 1,053.5 2.3% Average 5.2% 4.0% 5.6% 5.3% 6.9% 5.8%Growth 35% 119%AveragesAfrica 1,072 1,446 2,339 2.3% 39% 2,630Sub-Saharan Africa 902 1,245 2,092 2.5% 37% 1,970 5.6% 2.8% 5.3% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3%World 7,058 8,082 9,624 1.0% 51% 10,760More developed 1,243 1,292 1,338 0.3% 75% 33,460Less developed 5,814 6,789 8,286 1.2% 46% 5,900 All data from Population Reference Bureau IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, Oct 2012 24
  25. 25. Appendix 3: Attractive pricingEstimated retail cement price per tonne in Dangote target markets ($) 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 230 230 220 220 220 220 220 100 200 195 185 180 170 169 80 150 60 120 40 20 0 25
  26. 26. Appendix 4: Rapid urbanisationUrbanisation trends in Dangote Cement target markets (%)100 90 World Sub-Saharan Africa 80 Ethiopia Tanzania 70 Zambia Cameroon 60 Congo Gabon 50 South Africa Benin 40 Côte dIvoire Ghana 30 Guinea Liberia 20 Nigeria Senegal 10 Sierra Leone 0 2000 2005 2010 2015E 2020E 2025E 2030E 2035E 2040E 2045E 2050E Source: UN Population Division 26
  27. 27. Investor relationsEquity research is provided by the following analysts:Broker Analyst LocationAfrican Alliance Claire te Riele JohannesburgARM Research Oyinda Olanrewaju LagosChapel Hill Denham Eniola Taiwo LagosCSL FCMB Guy Czartoryski London/LagosExotix Andy Gboka LondonFBN Capital Tunde Abidoye LagosImara Securities Farai Vengesai HarareRenaissance Capital John Arron JohannesburgStanbicIBTC Tomi Ajayi LagosVetiva Tosin Ojo LagosFor further information contact:Carl FranklinHead of Investor RelationsDangote Cement+44 207 399 3070+44-7713-634834carl.franklin@dangote-group.com 27
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