Delberating Diesel Mazda Jim Kliesch

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Delberating Diesel Mazda Jim Kliesch

  1. 1. Getting the Green Light: An Environmental Assessment of Today’s Passenger Vehicles James Kliesch American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
  2. 2. Topical Overview <ul><li>Why should we be concerned? </li></ul><ul><li>What makes a vehicle green/mean? </li></ul><ul><li>How “green” has changed (or not) over the last five years </li></ul><ul><li>Top stories of 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Crystal ball: what lies ahead </li></ul>
  3. 3. Why be concerned? <ul><li>Every 2 seconds in this country, a new vehicle is purchased </li></ul><ul><li>Every other one of those is a light duty truck (pickup, minivan, SUV), typically with higher tailpipe emissions and lower fuel economy </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. passenger vehicles consume ~125 billion gallons of gasoline each year. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue to grow
  5. 5. How do you address consumption & emissions? <ul><li>One way: promote the manufacture and purchase of clean, efficient vehicles. </li></ul>
  6. 6. ACEEE’s Green Book ® <ul><li>Consumer guide, produced annually since Feb 1998 </li></ul><ul><li>7th edition (model year ‘04) released 2/10/04 </li></ul><ul><li>Available at www.GreenerCars.com </li></ul>
  7. 7. GreenerCars.com <ul><li>Three main aspects to the website: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Popular Tables (Greenest, Meanest, Best-in-Class) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>General consumer info on vehicles and the environment, how to buy green, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Database of all MY2000-2004 vehicles/configurations (approx. 6,200 listings), and their “Green Scores” </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. What Determines a Vehicle’s Green-ness? <ul><li>Fuel Economy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Affects overall GHG emissions, plus non-regulated tailpipe pollutants (ex. SO x , N 2 O) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Affects upstream emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Tailpipe Emissions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A vehicle’s emission standard specifies quantity of CO, HC, NO x , PM emitted </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Embodied Emissions (to lesser degree) </li></ul>
  9. 9. Emission Standard Primer <ul><li>California </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LEV I </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ULEV I </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LEV II </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ULEV II </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SULEV II </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PZEV </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Federal </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tier 2 bin 11 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tier 2 bin 10 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tier 2 bin 5 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>... </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tier 2 bin 2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tier 2 bin 1 </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Select Tier 1 and Tier 2 Full Useful Life Exhaust Emission Standards
  11. 11. Green Vehicles Have... <ul><li>High Fuel Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Low Tailpipe Emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Generally, what are those today? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hybrid-electric vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fuel efficient gasoline vehicles that meet stringent emission standards </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CNG vehicles </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Mean Vehicles Have... <ul><li>Low Fuel Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Bare-minimum Tailpipe Emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Generally, what are those today? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Large SUVs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Large pickup trucks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Performance-oriented sports cars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Diesels (interesting case, because high FE) </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. <ul><li>What a difference a half-decade makes... </li></ul>
  14. 14. Greenest Vehicles Model Years 2000 & 2004 <ul><li>Model Year 2000 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GM EV1 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nissan Altra EV </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Civic GX </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Insight </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota RAV4 EV </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Camry CNG </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ford Electric Ranger </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chevy Metro </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Echo </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nissan Sentra CA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mitsubishi Mirage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Civic HX </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Model Year 2004 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Civic GX </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Insight </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Prius </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Civic Hybrid </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Echo </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nissan Sentra </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Civic HX </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mazda 3 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Corolla </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hyundai Elantra </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scion xA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Civic </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. <ul><li>Then again... </li></ul>
  16. 16. Meanest Vehicles Model Years 2000 & 2004 <ul><li>Model Year 2000 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Chevy Suburban </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dodge Ram 2500 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ferrari Maranello </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chevy Silverado </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ford Excursion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dodge B2500 Van </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chevy K2500 Pickup </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cadillac Escalade </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GMC Yukon Denali </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Land Cruiser </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ferrari 456M </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Land Rover Range Rover </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Model Year 2004 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Volkswagen Touareg </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Land Rover Range Rover </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ford Excursion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dodge Ram 1500 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lexus LX 470 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Land Cruiser </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hummer H2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GMC Yukon XL K2500 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chevy Suburban K2500 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Sequoia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lamborghini Murcielago </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Land Rover Discovery Ser. II </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Top Stories of Model Year 2004 <ul><li>(1) Federal Tier 2 and California LEV II tailpipe emission standards go into effect. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greater #’s of SULEVs & PZEVs -- cleanest emissions levels of gasoline vehicles ever </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>On the whole, modest improvement federally, although standout models exist </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Increasing Number of SULEV and PZEV Nameplates
  19. 19. Top Stories of Model Year 2004 <ul><li>(2) Hybrids continue to be a big story </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New Toyota Prius, now midsize car, gets 3rd highest overall score, and highest rating of gasoline powered sedans (meets PZEV/Tier 2 bin 3 emissions; FE: 60/51) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mild hybrid GMC Sierra Hybrid/Chevy Silverado Hybrid (FE: 19 mpg hybrid vs. 17 mpg conventional) </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. The Growth of Hybrid-Electric Vehicles <ul><li>MY2000 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Insight </li></ul></ul><ul><li>MY2001 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Prius </li></ul></ul><ul><li>MY2003 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Civic Hybrid </li></ul></ul><ul><li>MY2004 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Prius (New) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GM Silverado/Sierra Hybrid </li></ul></ul><ul><li>MY2005 and beyond high-profile hybrids </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ford Escape HEV </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lexus RX400H </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Highlander </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Accord </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Saturn VUE </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rumored </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Odyssey </li></ul></ul>
  21. 21. HEV Sales Figures/Estimates <ul><li>Today: ~40,000 annual </li></ul><ul><ul><li>50% Prius </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>47% Civic Hybrid </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3% Insight </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2007: ~500,000 annual </li></ul>
  22. 22. Top Stories of Model Year 2004 <ul><li>(3) Overall, FE continues to decline </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Most recent confirmed information shows combined car/truck fuel economy at lowest level since 1980 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Due to high sales of large SUVs and pickups </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>These market segments have been aggressively pursued by import companies (i.e., not just a Big 3 problem) </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Passenger Car/Truck Fuel Economy Trends (Hellman and Heavenrich 2003)
  24. 24. Improvements in Low-Fuel Economy Vehicles are Critical <ul><li>14 mpg --> 16 mpg </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(a 14% improvement) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Saves 134 gallons annually </li></ul></ul><ul><li>35 mpg --> 51 mpg </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(a 46% improvement) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Saves 134 gallons annually </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. SUVs on the Rise (J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)
  26. 26. The Changing SUV Segment (J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)
  27. 27. Reason For Entry/Luxury SUV Growth: Crossover Vehicles
  28. 28. Are Crossovers Environmentally Friendly? <ul><li>Eco-friendliness depends on use: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is it a greener alternative for ski trips to mountains? Perhaps. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can you save the planet by using it to zip around town? No. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Eco-friendliness depends on vehicle: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pontiac Vibe? Yes. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Infiniti FX45? No. </li></ul></ul>
  29. 29. What Lies Ahead?
  30. 30. Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball <ul><li>Near-Term (Present-2010) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Continued improvement of gasoline-powered vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Release of new hybrid vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Continued deployment of an alternative technologies portfolio </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Room for diesel? </li></ul></ul>
  31. 31. Near-Term (Present-2010) <ul><li>Continued improvement of gasoline-powered vehicles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lightweight materials use; engine operation (EGR, VVT, etc.); transmission improvements (CVT); improved OBD </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Seen today in Honda Civic, Nissan Sentra CA, Honda Accord PZEV, Ford Focus PZEV, others </li></ul></ul>
  32. 32. Near-Term (Present-2010) <ul><li>Release of new hybrid-electric vehicles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ford Escape HEV </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lexus RX400H </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota Highlander </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Honda Accord </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Saturn VUE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Others: Chevrolet Equinox (2006), Malibu (2007) </li></ul></ul>
  33. 33. Near-Term (Present-2010) <ul><li>Continued deployment of an alternative technologies portfolio </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Alt fuel vehicles, primarily in fleet use (at least initially) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electric minicars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Test deployment of fuel cell vehicles </li></ul></ul>
  34. 34. Near-Term (Present-2010) <ul><li>Room for diesel? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Numerous questions remain about the viability of significant light duty diesel penetration </li></ul></ul>
  35. 35. Diesel Car and Light Truck Retail Sales, 1970-2001
  36. 36. A Host of Issues Affect Diesel Prospects <ul><li>Technology Costs </li></ul><ul><li>Health Impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Regulatory Constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel Quality </li></ul><ul><li>Technical Developments </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer Attitudes </li></ul>
  37. 37. Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball <ul><li>Mid-Term (2015-2030) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Stronger presence of hybrid-electric vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Introduction of fuel cell vehicles </li></ul></ul>
  38. 38. Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball <ul><li>Far-Term (2030 and beyond) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Stronger presence of fuel cell vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Need time to develop cell technologies and production techniques </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Need time to address dual-conundrum of (1) using hydrogen and dealing with storage/infrastructure, or (2) using liquid fuel (such as methanol) and dealing with processing </li></ul></ul></ul>
  39. 39. Thank You <ul><li>James Kliesch </li></ul><ul><li>American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy </li></ul><ul><li>1001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 801 </li></ul><ul><li>Washington, DC 20036 </li></ul><ul><li>(202) 429-8873 </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>

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