“The   Web, From Whence, & Whither"                     Cornerstone Lecture                    Renaissance Weekend        ...
Birth of the Internet in Early 1970s Led to    Forty Years of Exponential Growth Vint Cerf, Robert Kahn, Len Kleinrock, La...
The First NSFnet Backbone: The National Shared Bandwidth = a Dial-Up Modem!       NSFNET 56 Kb/s Backbone (1986-8)        ...
Fifteen Years from Bleeding Edge Research            to Mass Consumer Market• 1990 Leading Edge University Research Center...
NCSA Mosaic, a Module in NCSA Collage Desktop Collaboration Software, Led to the Modern Web World                  Licensi...
NCSA MosaicSet Off the Exponential Growth in Web Browsing                                1.E+13                           ...
NCSA Web Server Traffic Increase Led toNCSA Creating the First Parallel Web Server                      Peak was 4 Million...
The 1990s Browser WarsChart showing history of web browser market share     Netscape              Microsoft
Then Came the Dot-Com Crash -Creative Destruction of Capitalism
Out of the RubbleGoogle Brings Search to the Web
Over the Same PeriodFacebook Leads the Rise of the Social Web       Remember the“1 Millionth FB User” Party?Growth by 1000...
The Scale of the Web Today:          “You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion”• Facebook  – One Billion Active Users• YouTube   – ...
The Unrelenting Computing ExponentialThe Computing Power to Make a Single Google Search    Is More Than Was Used In Space ...
Warehouse-Scale Data Centers-The Planetary Computer That Powers the Internet and Web       Source: A Guided Tour through D...
Inside Google’s First Container Data Center    Each Google Container is a Data Center www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRwPSFpLX8I&...
Densely Packed Computers on an Aisle of    Microsofts Chicago Data Center  www.informationweek.com/news/infrastructure/rem...
The Internet is Increasingly Mobile         For India       Mobile is 50%
The Mobile Internet Experience         Will Overlay Physical Reality                       Wikitude 3D Augmented Reality B...
Four Trends of the Future Web   •Virtual Rooms   •Being There   •Telepresence   •Know Thyself
Towards Digital WallpaperHubble Space Telescope Collage of 48 Frames  (30,000x 14,000 pixels) on Calit2’s Vroom
Calit2 3D Immersive StarCAVE:          Enables Exploration of Digital Worlds Connected at 50 Gb/s to Quartzite            ...
Cultural Heritage Visualizationin Chicago’s Electronic Visualization Lab’s CAVE2            Displayed is a 3D panorama of ...
The Beginning of Virtual RoomsSharp Corp’s 156 60”LCDs for the 5D Miracle Tour at    the Hui Ten Bosch Theme Park in Nagas...
Being There - Remote Interactive High Definition Video          of Deep Sea Hydrothermal Vents                            ...
NSF’s Ocean Observatory Initiative Has FundedFiber Optic Sensornets on Seafloor Off Washington
A Near FutureFiber Optic Cable Observatory                  Source John Delaney, UWash
Over Fifty Years Ago, Asimov Described                  a World of Remote Viewing                             1956A police...
TV and Movies of 40 Years AgoEnvisioned Telepresence Displays    Source: Star Trek 1966-68; Barbarella 1968
The Bellcore VideoWindow --              A Working Telepresence Experiment                                                ...
Creating Planetary-Scale TelepresenceJan. 2008    Victoria Premier and Australian Deputy Prime Minister Discussing Issues ...
Dissolving WallsDriven by Scientific Collaboration                       Feb 19, 2009          From Start to              ...
Consumer Smartphone Apps                Enable Us to Read Out Our Bodies                                                  ...
A Vision for Healthcare                   in the Coming Decades       Using this data, the planetary computer will be able...
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The Web, From Whence, & Whither

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12.10.19
Cornerstone Lecture
Renaissance Weekend
Title: The Web, From Whence, & Whither
Napa Valley, CA

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The Web, From Whence, & Whither

  1. 1. “The Web, From Whence, & Whither" Cornerstone Lecture Renaissance Weekend Napa Valley October 19, 2012 Dr. Larry SmarrDirector, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology Harry E. Gruber Professor, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD
  2. 2. Birth of the Internet in Early 1970s Led to Forty Years of Exponential Growth Vint Cerf, Robert Kahn, Len Kleinrock, Larry Roberts http://www.uclabruin.com/30anniv.htm
  3. 3. The First NSFnet Backbone: The National Shared Bandwidth = a Dial-Up Modem! NSFNET 56 Kb/s Backbone (1986-8) CTC NCAR JVNC PSC NCSASDSC
  4. 4. Fifteen Years from Bleeding Edge Research to Mass Consumer Market• 1990 Leading Edge University Research Center-NCSA – Supercomputer GigaFLOPS Cray Y-MP ($15M) – Megabit/s NSFnet Backbone• 2005 Mass Consumer Market – PCs are Multi-Gigahertz ($1.5k) – Megabit/s Home DSL or Cable Modem NCSA’s Blue Waters Petascale Supercomputer (2012) Is Over 1 Million Times Faster than Cray Y-MP (1990)! Enormous Growth in Parallelism Processors: Y-MP 4, Blue Waters ~400,000 www.ncsa.uiuc.edu/BlueWaters/system.html
  5. 5. NCSA Mosaic, a Module in NCSA Collage Desktop Collaboration Software, Led to the Modern Web World Licensing 100 Commercial Licensees NC S AP 1993 ro gra mm ersNCSA Collage 1992 1990 Open Source Source: Larry Smarr
  6. 6. NCSA MosaicSet Off the Exponential Growth in Web Browsing 1.E+13 Mosaic Introduced NSFnet Backbone Byte Traffic 1.E+12 1.E+11 1.E+10 1.E+09 Gopher 1.E+08 WAIS/Z39.50 WWW 1.E+07 Nov Nov Nov Jul Jul Jan May May Jan Mar Mar Sep Sep 1993 1994 Source: Data from Merit; Graph by Larry Smarr
  7. 7. NCSA Web Server Traffic Increase Led toNCSA Creating the First Parallel Web Server Peak was 4 Million Hits per Week! 15 Years Later: From 12 Servers To Millions 1993 1994 1995 Data Source: Software Development Group, NCSA, Graph: Larry Smarr
  8. 8. The 1990s Browser WarsChart showing history of web browser market share Netscape Microsoft
  9. 9. Then Came the Dot-Com Crash -Creative Destruction of Capitalism
  10. 10. Out of the RubbleGoogle Brings Search to the Web
  11. 11. Over the Same PeriodFacebook Leads the Rise of the Social Web Remember the“1 Millionth FB User” Party?Growth by 1000-Fold in Less Than 8 Years!
  12. 12. The Scale of the Web Today: “You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion”• Facebook – One Billion Active Users• YouTube – 4 Billion Hours of Video Watched Each Month• Google – Over One Billion Searches Every Day• Apple – 15 Billion Apps Downloaded Per Year• Smartphones – 1 Billion Active Users
  13. 13. The Unrelenting Computing ExponentialThe Computing Power to Make a Single Google Search Is More Than Was Used In Space & On Earth For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program! http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html
  14. 14. Warehouse-Scale Data Centers-The Planetary Computer That Powers the Internet and Web Source: A Guided Tour through Data-center Networking Dennis Abts, Bob Felderman, Google
  15. 15. Inside Google’s First Container Data Center Each Google Container is a Data Center www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRwPSFpLX8I&feature=player_embedded
  16. 16. Densely Packed Computers on an Aisle of Microsofts Chicago Data Center www.informationweek.com/news/infrastructure/remote_access/220300620
  17. 17. The Internet is Increasingly Mobile For India Mobile is 50%
  18. 18. The Mobile Internet Experience Will Overlay Physical Reality Wikitude 3D Augmented Reality BrowserGoogle Project Glass
  19. 19. Four Trends of the Future Web •Virtual Rooms •Being There •Telepresence •Know Thyself
  20. 20. Towards Digital WallpaperHubble Space Telescope Collage of 48 Frames (30,000x 14,000 pixels) on Calit2’s Vroom
  21. 21. Calit2 3D Immersive StarCAVE: Enables Exploration of Digital Worlds Connected at 50 Gb/s to Quartzite 15 Meyer Sound Speakers + Subwoofer 30 HD Projectors! Passive Polarization-- Optimized the Polarization Separationand Minimized Attenuation Source: Tom DeFanti, Greg Dawe, Calit2 Cluster with 30 Nvidia 5600 cards-60 GB Texture Memory
  22. 22. Cultural Heritage Visualizationin Chicago’s Electronic Visualization Lab’s CAVE2 Displayed is a 3D panorama of Luxor in Egypt- Images were Created at Calit2 by Tom DeFanti and Dan Sandin
  23. 23. The Beginning of Virtual RoomsSharp Corp’s 156 60”LCDs for the 5D Miracle Tour at the Hui Ten Bosch Theme Park in Nagasaki Opened April 29, 2011http://sharp-world.com/corporate/news/110426.html
  24. 24. Being There - Remote Interactive High Definition Video of Deep Sea Hydrothermal Vents Canadian-U.S. Collaboration Source John Delaney & Deborah Kelley, UWash
  25. 25. NSF’s Ocean Observatory Initiative Has FundedFiber Optic Sensornets on Seafloor Off Washington
  26. 26. A Near FutureFiber Optic Cable Observatory Source John Delaney, UWash
  27. 27. Over Fifty Years Ago, Asimov Described a World of Remote Viewing 1956A policeman from Earth, where the population all lives underground in close quarters, iscalled in to investigate a murder on a distant world. This world is populated by very fewhumans, rarely if ever, coming into physical proximity of each other. Instead the people "View" each other with trimensional “holographic” images.
  28. 28. TV and Movies of 40 Years AgoEnvisioned Telepresence Displays Source: Star Trek 1966-68; Barbarella 1968
  29. 29. The Bellcore VideoWindow -- A Working Telepresence Experiment (1989)“Imagine sitting in your work place lounge having coffee with some colleagues.Now imagine that you and your colleagues are still in the same room, but areseparated by a large sheet of glass that does not interfere with your ability tocarry on a clear, two-way conversation. Finally, imagine that you have split theroom into two parts and moved one part 50 miles down the road, withoutimpairing the quality of your interaction with your friends.” Source: Fish, Kraut, and Chalfonte-CSCW 1990 Proceedings
  30. 30. Creating Planetary-Scale TelepresenceJan. 2008 Victoria Premier and Australian Deputy Prime Minister Discussing Issues with Australian-American Leadership Dialogue at Calit2
  31. 31. Dissolving WallsDriven by Scientific Collaboration Feb 19, 2009 From Start to This Image in Less Than 2 Weeks! View from NASA Ames Lunar Science Institute Mountain View, CA NASA Interest in Supporting Virtual Institutes Source: Falko Kuester, Calit2; Michael Sims, NASA
  32. 32. Consumer Smartphone Apps Enable Us to Read Out Our Bodies Withing/iPhone- Blood Pressure Body Media- Calories Burned Lose It-Calories Ingested EM Wave PC- Stress Azumio-Heart Rate Zeo-Sleep
  33. 33. A Vision for Healthcare in the Coming Decades Using this data, the planetary computer will be able to build a computational model of your body and compare your sensor stream with millions of others. Besides providing early detection of internal changes that could lead to disease,cloud-powered voice-recognition wellness coaches could provide continual personalized support on lifestyle choices, potentially staving off disease and making health care affordable for everyone. ESSAY An Evolution Toward a Programmable Universe By LARRY SMARR Published: December 5, 2011

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