The Future Quotient50 Stars in SeriouslyLong-Term Innovation Beta Alpha Delta Epsilon Gamma ZetaVOL ANS
Contents An FQ GlossaryForewords Culture The ingrained behaviors and beliefs characteristic of a particular social, ethnicVolans and JWT 1 or age group, sometimes described as, “what people do when no one else is lookingAtkins 2 over their shoulder.” The emerging focus of sustainability, as the context for behavioralThe Dow Chemical Company 2 change.Shell Foundation 3 Future Quotient (FQ) A measure of the future-readiness—of individuals, teams,MindTime Technologies Inc. 3 agencies, businesses, brands and beyond—to positively cope with and overcome the various complexities as a result of foreseeable andExecutive Summary 4 unforeseeable future changes in the economy, society and the environment.Introduction 6 Intergenerational 1 Being or occurringThe Chasm between generations. 2 A time period extending beyond one human generation.Chapters Average human generation is between 29 years (for women) and 33 years (for men).1 What Tomorrow Wants 8 Long-Term In The Future Quotient, considered2 The S-t-r-e-t-c-h Agenda and 16 as stretching out along intergenerational time- 12 Sectors that Play Long scales, i.e. beyond the 30-year time-horizon.3 50 Stars in Seriously 24 Paradigm The underlying assumptions and Long-Term Innovation rules shaping current ways of thinking, framing and doing science. Paradigm shifts have been4 Are You Ready to Star? 32 triggered by people like Copernicus, Galileo, Einstein and, we argue, James Lovelock.5 Expand Your FQ: 36 A Playbook to Get Started Seriously 1 In a serious manner. 2 To an alarmingly grave extent. 3 With genuine,6 The Quotient’s Future 42 earnest intent; sincerely. System Change A transformation in the wayAppendices our economic and political systems, or our cultures, operate. Necessary condition of—andA Survey Process and Results 45 likely consequence of—a paradigm shift.B References 48 Transformational Disruptive change. Transformations can be scientific,C Publication Details 52 technological, economic, cultural or civilizational. They can be advanced byD Acknowledgements 52 incremental change, but true transformational change is disruptive in nature.E Other Publications IBCF Addendum IBCOur front cover image shows the constellationof Volans superimposed on a random field of 50stars. Stars help with navigation and symbolisehumanity’s intense interest in knowing the future.Sadly there is no JWT constellation.
Foreword 1Volans and JWTAn old order is coming apart, a new one— Over time, we will see a shift in understandingfor better or worse—self-assembling. Volans about the requirements for a ‘going concern’,spotlighted this trend in 2009 in the report, as required by Generally Accepted AccountingThe Phoenix Economy.1 It was noted in that Principles (GAAP), with new methods neededreport that a crisis is a terrible thing to waste, for asset capitalization, depreciation, andbut as Volans and JWT drafted The Future amortization. Currently, a going concernQuotient it was clear that the opportunity had is considered to be likely to exist into thelargely been squandered. distant future—which may prove an optimistic assumption when the forces of creative2011 so far: the Japanese tsunami and destruction are breaking loose—and whenFukushima meltdowns sideswipe the global natural resource and environmental securitynuclear industry and mainstream low-carbon challenges are pressing in.energy plans; America’s debt rating wasdowngraded; Greece has teetered on the So do we trust to luck and allow a newedge of default, with European political leaders economy to emerge wherever it chooses to doscrambling to shore up other countries, so, or do we seize the opportunity to createindeed the entire Euro system. The UK has and shape the new order?seen astonishing levels of violence in London,our home city, and elsewhere. Even normally Volans and JWT choose the second option.peaceful Norway has been shaken to the core Now, more than ever, it is time for businessesby an outbreak of anti-Islamicism that left and their brands, governments and civil societyscores of people dead. organizations to test and build their capacity to meet the needs of both present and futureThe central argument in The Phoenix Economy generations.was that we were seeing not simply a greatrecession but the beginning of an era of We are profoundly grateful to our sponsors:creative destruction. History tells us that Atkins, The Dow Chemical Company and Shellwhen these periods happen, those who are ill Foundation. These and other debts of gratitudeprepared and unwilling to reinvent themselves are identified in our Acknowledgements ongo to the wall. Eventually, of course, capitalism page 52. Our sponsors have given us a freewill mutate and evolve, but not uniformly rein on this project, so any failings should notaround the globe. be laid at their door—while our ability to get as far as we have has everything to do with their generous support. We would very much welcome any comments you may have on what follows. E-mail addresses are provided at the end of the report on page 44.John Elkington Charmian Love Alastair MortonCo-Founder & Chief Executive, Head of Ethos,Executive Chairman, Volans JWT LondonVolans
Foreword ForewordAtkins The Dow Chemical CompanyProject Sponsor Project SponsorThe concept of the Future Quotient is central to Old ways versus new ways. It’s a conflict thatthe long-term value and sustainability of Atkins’ Dow recently addressed with unprecedentedbusiness. The ability to look forward and see self-scrutiny and transformation. In many ways,through the ambiguity and uncertainty that the we are a case study for the paths forward thatfuture presents is vital if we are to continue are presented in The Future Quotient.to create value for our clients. As one of theworld’s largest infrastructure consultancies, we A journey of the magnitude we as humansare comfortable dealing with the long-term, face, in order to save ourselves, requiresplanning, designing and enabling of our clients’ immense, yet fundamental changes. Theinfrastructure projects and capital programmes, current world order, or disorder, is based onthe design lives of which may extend over entrenched and dysfunctional systems—many tens of years. To remain at the forefront it with no one person, one company, or oneis crucial that we challenge ourselves to better government at the controls.understand the implications of complex long-term change on everything we do. Managing our destiny requires a clear and common vision of the future. Then we eachWe are investing in the challenge of future have to drive the necessary changes thatthinking through the creation of our futures will get us to our shared destination. As Dowteam, where we are harnessing the deep skills contemplates its third set of Sustainabilityfrom right across the business to understand Goals, we have opened the dialogue on whatthe challenges that climate change, resource our role in the world should be on our 200thscarcity and carbon reduction present to birthday, the year 2097.the long-term resilience of infrastructure andclimate compatible development. As we move What is our relationship with the planet?forward on this journey this report raises How do our technologies and our peopleimportant questions for us all to debate: How contribute? Where do we invest today—indo we create the right environment, habits and R&D, in manufacturing, in human capital—tobehaviours for our people to think long-term? have the best chance at shared prosperity?Have we the right balance of thinkers in ourorganisation and are we being bold enough in The bets we all place these days are becomingour thinking? And, crucially, can we improve bigger and longer term. Every decision eachhow we communicate about futures to strongly of us makes has an impact on our collectiveresonate with our colleagues and clients? journey. The Future Quotient provides the impetus and framework for getting anyThe clarity by which we communicate future business—and every business—on board.drivers of change will impact on how quicklyand strongly they are adopted. We are pleasedto be an early part of the Future Quotientjourney and look forward to being contributingto the ongoing debate that will hopefully movemany of us towards the example set by thereport’s “Top 50”.Elspeth Finch Nick Roberts Neil HawkinsDirector, UK Managing Director, UK VP, Sustainability and EH&SAtkins Atkins The Dow Chemical Company
Foreword Foreword 3Shell Foundation MindTime Technologies Inc.Project Sponsor Project PartnerIn an increasingly unpredictable and volatile Plato implored us to “Know thyself.” Einsteinworld, developing a strategy to manage the insisted: “We cannot solve our problems withfuture is not easy. When Shell Foundation the same level of thinking that created them.reviewed its strategy in 2010 after one decade We must see the world anew.”of operations, we concluded that our successwas in large part due to the fact that we didn’t We are in the midst of a huge explosion in ourreally have one. understanding of human consciousness and thinking. It is time for us to use these advancesWhen we first started out, we took the to better understand the minds that we areview that in order to create a successful trying to manage towards radical change,new model for corporate philanthropy that including our own.was catalytic and could drive a whole newapproach to international development, we The Future Quotient, both as an idea and ashad to experiment. A preconceived strategy a business concept, challenges us to rethinkthat dictated our course would have got in the everything about the way we manage forwardway. Instead, our strategy evolved from our from today. It reminds us in no uncertainoperations and from our failures. However, as terms that the consequences of failure arewe re-crafted our model in line with what we unacceptable.learned, so we began to see a business modelemerging that we could articulate. Only then To achieve a high Future Quotient, akin to beingdid we feel that we could develop a strategy well embarked on the road to sustainability,that would help us navigate the future. requires organizations that span the world to intelligently go about rethinking their ways.Sometimes when you’re trying to drive change Significantly, however, this rethinking can noyou need to let circumstance and empiricism longer be done from a central place. The worldguide you rather than preconceived constructs is far too complex. Rather, it requires a deepthat might limit your risk appetite and divert commitment and investment in raising the levelyour focus. This is why we agreed to support of individual and organizational awareness ofVolans and JWT with their Future Quotient thinking at work.research initiative. We believe that the abilityto navigate the future effectively depends on Ultimately, what we do starts with how wehaving an open mind, a willingness to learn think. To re-think our ways we must firstfrom—and admit to—mistakes and a healthy understand how we think, individually andappetite to go where others fear to tread. collectively.We’re delighted with the outcome and hopethat the recommendations can be applied justas much to the philanthropic sector, corporatephilanthropy and corporate social investmentas they can to corporations and individuals.Chris West Clare Woodcraft John FureyDirector, Deputy Director, UK CEO,Shell Foundation Shell Foundation MindTime Technologies Inc.
Executive Summary2011 proved to be a pivotal year, as indicated In the same way we currently measure the IQin Figure 0.1 below. 2012, thanks to a number or EQ of individuals, Volans and JWT believeof sustainability milestones,2 will see the that we need to investigate FQ as a measureworld debating progress to date in terms of of the future-readiness of individuals, teams,sustainable development, a concept whose agencies, businesses, brands and beyond.mainstreaming began a quarter century agoin 1987. We explore why such a measure is needed as we establish the imperative for longer-Around the time of the 2012 UN Summit on term thinking and action (Chapter 1). WeSustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro, look at how leadership must stretch if it is towe will be bombarded with reports and case embrace this imperative (Chapter 2) and westudies suggesting significant advances. The outline the key dimensions that any FQ testuncomfortable truth, however, is that much of must capture in order to be a true measurewhat currently passes for sustainability strategy of future-readiness. We highlight 50 ‘guidingin business is little more than corporate stars’ of seriously long-term innovation—citizenship—and more or less completely individuals, organizations and economies thatignores the pivotal concept in the sustainability our team and wider network judged to beagenda: the interests and needs of future likely to show significantly higher-than-averagegenerations. Future Quotients (Chapter 3). We offer a way to explore your team’s style of thinking usingThe Future Quotient, co-authored by Volans MindTime’s methodology (Chapter 4), as aand JWT, is our take on the emerging first step towards assessing Future Quotient.agenda. It is a pitch for the introduction of a And in Chapter 5 we spotlight a range of toolsnew concept—the Future Quotient, or FQ— as building blocks for an eventual Playbook,designed to measure the ability to think and aimed at helping individuals and organizationsact along intergenerational timescales. to expand their Future Quotient.Figure 0.1Waves of Societal Pressure Israel-PLO peace treaty Nelson Mandela free Oklahoma City bombing Martin Luther King assassinated ‘Our Common Future’ Good Friday agreement Lockerbie disaster Greenham Common protests USSR breaks up UN Earth Summit Munich Olympics terrorism Rwandan genocide US troop deployment in Vietnam Martin Luther King ‘I have a dream’ Berlin Wall falls ‘Mad Cow’ disease Vietnam boat people exodus Chernobyl disaster Ozone depletion warnings US invasion of Grenada Mao’s ‘Cultural Revolution’ Greenpeace founded Three Mile Island disaster Man lands on Moon Kyoto Protocol LiveAid concerts Rachel Carson ‘Silent Spring’ Amoco Cadiz disaster Amnesty International founded Solidarity movement Watergate scandal Y2K scare US Clean Air Act Bhopal disaster First AIDS cases Chairman Mao dies North Sea Oil flows Mandela imprisoned Biafra crisis JFK ‘New Frontier’1970 Environmental Wave1990 Green Wave19601980
Panel 1 5IQ, DQ, EQ and Eco-QOver the past century, a number of measures An IQ score is more or less set for life, althoughhave emerged that aim to capture the average IQ scores have been rising at aroundcapabilities of individuals. We already have the three points per decade since the early part ofIntelligence Quotient (IQ) and, thanks to Daniel the last century. By contrast, those measuringGoleman, we also now have the Emotional EQ or Eco-Q tend to assume that scores canQuotient (EQ) and Ecological Quotient (Eco-Q). improve with awareness and training. TheIQ testing has become central to education design and innovation company IDEO hasand human resources management. The first also proposed a Design Quotient (DQ) to tracklarge-scale mental tests were used in China users’ contributions to the firm’s OpenIDEOduring the Sui Dynasty in 605 as part of the website, which is also improvable with diligententry exams for the imperial civil service, with effort.the IQ approach getting a big boost duringWWI with the need to evaluate and assignrecruits. There are now many different formsof IQ assessment, but the central idea is thatan IQ score is an effective predictor of anindividual’s capabilities. @FutureQuo 2011 a year of transition Will it lead to Breakdown? Distraction? Or Breakthrough? #FutureQuo Breakthrough President Obama Live Earth events Haiti earthquake GRI G3 guidelines Indian Ocean tsunami Hurricane Katrina CSR on WEF agendaJohannesburg Summit COP15 Invasion of Iraq 9/11 terrorism Progress Distraction Arab Spring Japanese tsunami Fukushima disaster Osama Bin Laden killed Breakdown Murdoch trial2000 Anti-globalisation Wave US heatwave Norway killings 2010 Sustainability Wave US credit downgrade UK riots 2020 2030
IntroductionThe ChasmThe global sustainability movement is 25 Leadership in crisisyears old, with 2012 marking a number ofmilestones—among them: 40 years from the It is in the very nature of things that aLimits to Growth study,3 25 years from the proportion of leaders will fail, but when the rateBrundtland report 4 and 20 years from the first of failure increases dramatically, the chancesEarth Summit in Rio de Janeiro.5 But has real are that system failure is at the heart of theprogress been made—and how well positioned problem. The current generation of leadersare we to make progress tomorrow? have fought their way to the top of the pile in a system whose rules they understood, indeedOn the upside, corporate commitments helped to define and police.to sustainability-focused initiatives actuallyincreased during the first phase of the global As a new order begins to emerge, theirdownturn, with almost 60% of companies in instincts, reflexes and well-honed solutionsa recent survey saying their investments in increasingly fail to address the increasinglyrelated areas increased in 2010.6 complex challenges. The question is: do our leaders have the skills and ability to adapt toOn the downside, a key element of the the new order?Brundtland agenda was the issue of long-term and intergenerational timescales and As the financial and ecological systems weakenequity—and here we are failing, badly. With and stresses build, human nature dictates thatvery few exceptions, leaders, decision-makers we try to do more of what worked in the past.and policy-makers are not yet thinking and We focus even more on the conventionallyacting for the longer term. Indeed, stressed by defined bottom line. Stuck in a hole, wethe protracted downturn, too often they are continue to dig, despite clear signals thathunkering down, lowering their ambitions, and radical change is needed. Eventually, naturalshrinking their timescales. selection will sort winners from losers, but will the winners be any better at addressing theWe seem to be at a make or break point, core elements of the sustainability agenda?teetering on the edge of the sort of chasm Will they be more adept in considering theillustrated in Figure 0.1. The failure of 2009’s long-term resilience of their organizations?Copenhagen COP15 climate summit and In what follows, we sketch out a means oflater meetings suggests caution in terms of measuring the future-readiness of leaders—expectations about the outcomes of current and offer a short survey of some of the toolsglobal governance processes. For the used by our FQ50 finalists and others.sustainability agenda to cross over into themainstream population without serious dilution, While measures such as IQ, EQ and Eco-Qnew forms of leadership are urgently required— (Panel 1) can contribute to evaluations of theaspects of which are demonstrated by our capacity of an individual, team or organization50 Stars in Chapter 3. to make sense of, manage and even improve the future, none is designed to provide an overall assessment of future-readiness, let alone the ability to address the needs of future generations.@FutureQuo 81% of CEOs say they’veembedded sustainability (Accenture survey).But only 29 publicly traded US companies haveCSOs (Weinreb) #FutureQuo
7We need a tool—or tools—that can help We researched, scanned, interviewed andus measure what we’re calling our Future conducted a part-quantitative, part-qualitativeQuotient. A high Future Quotient can help survey surrounding the issue of long-termindividuals or groups identify new risks thinking and acting (Appendix A, pages 45–47).ahead of the pack, and play more effectively This was emailed to several thousand membersinto emerging areas of opportunity. As the of the Volans and JWT networks, resulting in 500Canadians say in ice hockey, it can help players fully completed replies from thought-leaders andskate to where the puck is going to be— practitioners worldwide.rather than where it is. Drawing on this collective wisdom, and working closely with MindTime, who we discoveredThe Future Quotient project along the way, we began the development of a beta version of our methodology to measureThe project began as a response to evidence your own FQ (Chapter 4). Building on thethat CEOs, and C-suites generally, were recommendations of our respondents, weconcluding that they had already embedded compiled a listing of ‘50 Stars in Seriouslysustainability.7 Ahead of the 2012 sustainability Long-Term Innovation’ which we term as themilestone events, we felt that some sort of FQ50 (Chapter 3) as well as an FQ Playbook tocounterblast was needed. The FQ idea evolved help individuals and organizations stretch theiralong the way—as a means of testing those FQ (Chapter 5).C-suite assumptions.Figure 0.2 Source: Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the Chasm:Make or break 8 Marketing and Selling Technology Products toAdoption Lifecycle Mainstream Customers, Capstone, 1998.Innovators + Early adopters + Early majority Late majority Laggards +enthusiasts visionaries pragmatists conservatives skeptics The Chasm Time
Chapter 1 033What Tomorrow Wants 032 043 009 026 010 033034 046 025 017 028 046 010 011 024 049 003 029 022 030 002 037 004 012 001 027 047 014 041 013 015 050 020 006 016042 018 006 039 031 025 045 007 038 035 016 044It’s time to get a better fix on what the futurewants from us today. Our visual refers to themapping of stars. In this section we look at 048who’s good (and bad) at long-term thinking. 021
9If you ask a CEO—or similar—to sketch their As Volans argued in an earlier report:business universe on a flipchart or whiteboard, “Properly understood, sustainability is notwhich we have, you quickly notice something the same as corporate social responsibilitystriking about the diagram they produce. (CSR)—nor can it be reduced to achieving anTypically, they place their organization at the acceptable balance across economic, socialvery centre of the mapped universe. This and environmental bottom lines. Instead, it isshould come as no surprise: this is their world, about the fundamental, intergenerational taskand their perceived centrality powerfully shapes of winding down the dysfunctional economictheir worldview. and business models of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and the evolution ofThis simple fact has huge implications for the new ones fit for a human population headedcapacity of CEOs and other members of the towards nine billion people, living on aglobal C-suite to improve their Future Quotient small planet which is already in ‘ecologicaland effectively engage the sustainability overshoot’.” 11agenda. It means that business leaders areoften in the same position as cosmologists pre- The key word here is intergenerational. VeryGalileo, seeing the agenda in corporate terms, few businesses operate on anything like arather than in wider societal or biosphere- generational timescale, though in Chapter 2 wecentric terms. spotlight a sample of those that come closer than most to operating on such timescales.And it shows in survey data. In 2010, forexample, the UN Global Compact and As several CEOs told us during the course ofAccenture reported the results of a global this project, recessionary pressures and widersurvey of 766 CEOs—in which 93% said that uncertainties in the system have encouragedthey saw sustainability as an important part of short-termism to proliferate, with even pensionthe business landscape and 88% knew that funds becoming increasingly myopic in theirthey now had to drive related requirements investing.through their supply chains.9 The real jolt,however, came when 81% said that they had Andrew Haldane of the Bank of Englandalready “embedded” sustainability. Whatever has tried to quantify short-termism. “Ourthey may have embedded, the chances are evidence suggests short-termism is boththat it does not address the need for system statistically and economically significantchange. This is backed up by a recent study in capital markets,” he and his colleague,by Weinreb Group which found that only 29 Richard Davies report.12 They underscore thepublicly listed US companies have a Chief impact of the fact that “information is streamedSustainability Officer (CSO) and they, on in ever greater volumes and at ever risingaverage, only have 4.2 direct reports on their velocities. Timelines for decision-making,” theyteam.10 say, “appear to have been compressed.”Many companies now have a cycle of annual More significantly still, they conclude: “Thesenon-financial reports; they may now engage a forces may be altering not just the way we act,wider range of external stakeholders than they but also the way we think. Neurologically, ouronce did; and they may be one of the few who brains are adapting by shortening attentionhave appointed a Chief Sustainability Officer. spans,” they conclude. “Like a transistor radio,But some may be surprised to discover the our brains may be permanently retuning todegree to which they have failed to understand a shorter wave-length.” This is a theme alsothe fundamentals of the sustainability agenda explored in books like The Shallows.13they have signed up to—which is now set tobecome the operating code of twenty-first In the US and UK, cash-flows five years aheadcentury markets. are now discounted at rates more appropriate to eight or more years into the future. Haldane and Davies tell us, “10-year ahead cash-flows are valued as if 16 or more years ahead and cash-flows more than 30 years ahead are scarcely valued at all. The long is short.”14
Chapter 1What Tomorrow WantsWorse, our ability to make long-term Panel 2investments seems to be weakening, at least Who’s good—and bad—according to the World Economic Forum at long-term thinking?(WEF). It concluded that in 2009, long-terminstitutional asset holders held slightly under In our first Future Quotient survey (seehalf of the world’s professionally managed Appendix A) we asked: ‘In general, do youassets—some US$27 trillion out of US$65 think that the capacity to think with long-termtrillion.15 Haldane and Davies conclude that: horizons in mind is getting better or worse?’“Public policy intervention might be needed to for each of four actors: individuals, businesses,correct this capital market myopia.” 16 investors and governments. We asked the same question to track their capacity to actAs global population pressures build and with long-term horizons in mind.emerging economies find themselves lockedinto resource-intensive economic models, For each actor, we calculated an indexthere are growing grounds for concern that the representing the net belief that they arepace of climate change and of other pressures improving in these capabilities. For instance,on the biosphere will outrun our capacity the positive index along the horizontal axisto innovate, at least at the scale that will be for businesses means that more of ournecessary. respondents see businesses as getting better at thinking for the long-term than thinkAs the Stern Review on the economics of they are getting worse.climate change argued, climate change looksset to become the biggest market failure in Strikingly, no actor has a positive index on theour collective history.17 Meanwhile, the risk vertical axis, meaning that, in total, respondentsof intergenerational tensions, in the sense of see a decreasing ability to act with long-termtensions between current generations, grows horizons in mind. One point to highlight is thatby the day. There are significant concerns despite governments being scored so poorly,about the future of public health care provision, we believe that some of them do indeed thinkpensions and climate change, to name just a and act with long-term horizons in mind.few increasingly problematic fault lines between Perhaps not as effectively as we might want,generations. Governments are proving ill- but governments are generally responsibleadapted to the emerging challenges, as Figure for such things as healthcare planning,1.1 suggests. Though, as Chapter 2 argues, infrastructure provision and social services.the very nature of what government does As Dalton McGuinty, Premier of Ontario,means that, at its best, its time horizons can Canada, recently put it, “The responsibilitybe significantly longer than those of most of leadership is to represent the future to thebusinesses. present”. For more on government, please see Chapter 2 where we highlight 12 sectors thatWarning bells have been sounded by, among are playing long (pages 20–23).others, the US National IntelligenceCouncil in a series of reports looking outa decade or two into the future.18 Amongtheir conclusions: “The whole internationalsystem—as constructed following WWII—willbe revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat atthe international high table, they will bring newstakes and rules of the game.”These things go in cycles, of course, but ourgovernments, financial institutions and manybusiness leaders appear to be failing even interms of the old market rules—let alone thenew rules imposed by new considerations likeenergy, food, water and climate security.
11Figure 1.1Who is getting better at thinking—and acting—long term? 50 Long-Term Acting Improving 40 30 20Long-Term 10 Long-TermThinking ThinkingWorsening Improving -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Individuals Businesses -10 -20 Investors -30 -40 Long-Term Governments Acting Worsening @FutureQuo Survey says individuals + businesses are improving at thinking long-term, but how to translate this into action? #FutureQuo
Chapter 1What Tomorrow WantsPanel 3Cultural dimensions of long-termismThe degree to which we engage with long- It is interesting to see South Korea and Chinaterm thinking differs from person to person, positioned leading the long runner pack, whilebut there are also significant differences across Egypt—land of the age-old Pyramids—bringscultures. Experts like Charles Hampden- up the rear. By contrast to the situation inTurner and Fons Trompenaars have mapped China, where long-term planning has been onedifferent cultures in terms of the time bubbles key part of the impressive, sustained expansionthey occupy, shown as different sized bubbles of the economy and of the country’s politicalrepresenting the past, present and future.19 position, the West appears to have been hamstrung by an aggravated case of politicalIt is no accident that some of the pioneering short-termism and market myopia.work with tools like scenarios planning wasdone in sectors that have to think particularly It is important to note, however, that theselong-term, particularly defense and natural examples are not without controversy. Theresource extraction. Or that some of the most long-term outlook of some countries on the leftintense interest in cultural differences in terms of the chart can ignore severe social injusticesof time-horizons has come from multinational in the present. The positioning of countriesbusinesses operating multi-cultural teams. A like Russia, Slovakia, Bosnia and Albania issensitive understanding of the time orientations provocative and raises a number of questionsof different internal and external stakeholders about the links between long-term orientationis crucially important. This is a field in which and economic success.Geert Hofstede excels—see Figure 1.2.20Figure 1.2 Source: G. Hofstede, G. Hofstede, M. Minkov,Hofstede’s long-term orientation, by Cultures and Organizations, McGraw Hill, 2010country 100 80 60 40 20 South Korea Japan China Germany Russia Singapore France Indonesia Italy Sweden Great Britain India Pakistan Spain Bangladesh Turkey Brazil Canada Saudi Arabia South Africa Thailand PhilippinesUnited States Mexico Australia Argentina Morocco Iran Nigeria Egypt
13Discounting tomorrow One key question: “Whether the timescales considered by boards and senior managementA fundamental tool of modern capitalism in evaluating corporate risks and opportunities,explicitly involves discounting the future. and by institutional shareholders andEconomics 101 tells us that a discount rate is fund managers in making investment andthe percentage by which the value of a cash governance decisions, match the timeflow in a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation horizons of the underlying beneficiaries.” Thisis reduced for each time period by which it is is becoming a question of fiduciary duty.removed from the present. The estimation of asuitable discount rate is often the most difficultand uncertain part of a DCF exercise. The Our shifting paradigmchallenge is made even more difficult by thefact that a small change in the discount rate A review of management timescales andcan cause large changes in value. discount rates would certainly be a start, though it seems unlikely that the interests ofMost environmental experts see the impact future generations, in the Brundtland sense,of discounting as pernicious when applied to will be directly addressed. However, there arenatural systems like fisheries, forests or the other reasons for optimism. James Lovelockclimate. These concerns are legitimate, though (one of our 50 Stars, see page 28) may wellthe precise implications critically depend on turn out to be a modern Copernicus, and if wethe timescales within which the discounting is track his work back to the early 1960s—it isdone. very possible that we are about 55-60 years into a paradigm shift that will have profoundThree such timescales are suggested by implications for the way we view and managethe Long Now Foundation (one of our 50 Earth resources and security.Stars, see page 31), as they explore differentconceptions of deep time. These time-spans ‘Paradigm’ is a much-overused word theserange from a few days through roughly a days, but when introduced by Thomas Kuhnhuman generation (30 years) and then out to in 1962, it had a very specific meaning.22the millennia over which the evolution of human It refers to the basic assumptions and thecivilization can now be tracked. People with a underlying rules of the current way of doinghigh Future Quotient can operate conceptually science, to how reality is seen. Paradigm shiftsbetween multiple time domains—and are typically take many decades—even humanparticularly conscious of these longer-term generations—to work through, partly becausetimescales. those ‘infected’ with the outgoing paradigm have to retire or die to open up space for theOne hopeful initiative announced as we were incoming one.preparing The Future Quotient was a reviewof the impact of equity market dynamics on Before the Industrial Revolution, for example,the longer-term competitiveness of the UK the prevailing energy paradigm mainly revolvedeconomy—led by Professor John Kay and around renewable energy, including powersupported by the Department of Business, extracted from the wind, sun, animals orInnovation & Skills (BIS).21 slaves. We then moved into the fossil fuel era, with its defining ‘Cornucopian’ paradigm. Now, with growing concerns about ‘Peak Oil’, the peaking of other key resources and climate change, we are racing towards a new paradigm—whose character is yet to be determined.
Chapter 1What Tomorrow Wants2012 offers an important opportunity to look to Even the best-intentioned leaders can hit thethe past and review progress to date. Whether wall when attempting the transition from cellswe take a 50-year time horizon (back to Rachel 1 to 2. They make the announcements, butCarson’s Silent Spring,23 which helped launch their behavior remains unchanged: they rely onthe environmental movement), or a 40-year a (flawed) ‘do as I say, not as I do’ approach.(UN Stockholm Conference on the Human Still, if you get this even partially right, theEnvironment, Limits to Growth 24), 25-year process can go viral, as it has with bans on(Brundtland Commission Report, Our Common public smoking in some countries. Those whoFuture 25) or 20-year (1992 UN Earth Summit do make it into cell 2, must then make the evenin Rio de Janeiro) horizon, the underlying trend tougher transition to cell 3. Here the focus is onis clear. There has been a global awakening: integrating new values into corporate, urban,concerns about demographics (for example, national, or global cultures. It must be abouthuman numbers and aging), natural resource enrolling the right stakeholders and using ideasavailability, water scarcity, climate and a range to capture collective imaginations and catalyzeof other environmental and social issues have change at this cultural level.increasingly penetrated the consciousness ofordinary people, policy-makers and business Culture is the new frontier—and we need toleaders—even if they do not yet know what to get dramatically better at intelligent culturaldo in response. engineering. One key area of concern, for example, must be the impact of the ageingBut, as Figure 1.3 suggests, changing trend on the willingness of our societies tomindsets are only part of our overarching, support and invest in solutions designedmulti-dimensional, non-linear challenge.26 The to effect system change.27 Older people, indiagram, developed by Volans, indicates that addition to being politically active and moremindset change is only useful if it translates into conservative, also tend to have their pensionseffective changes in behaviors—and behaviors invested in incumbent, older order industriesare often very hard to change because they and companies. How to green the greys?are ‘locked in’ by cultures. Typically, thesethree domains are anchored in the underlying Then, as we probe the margins of cell 4, theparadigm, which often takes a very long time spotlight shifts to paradigms. However the nextindeed to shift—with 70-80 years being a paradigm crystallizes out, intergenerationalrelatively speedy shift. timescales, responsibilities and investments will need to be at its core.@FutureQuo New leadership is needed toalign mindset and behaviors with longer timehorizons. Pls RT to build collective movement.#FutureQuo
15Figure 1.3From Mindsets to Paradigms1 2Mindsets BehavioursIndividual Thought Individual Action4 3Paradigms CulturesCollective Thought Collective Action
Chapter 2The S-t-r-e-t-c-h Agenda and12 Sectors that Play Long 180Civilization depends on the ability to holdsocial groups together and to build thenecessary infrastructures and institutions.For our civilization to make sense of the 21st-century, we must stretch our timescales.
17Broadly stated, the first 50 years of If fission is the status quo, what would needenvironmentalism saw processes of social to happen to take us into a future of fusion?fission at work. The one overarching agenda What would that future quo be? Stretchingsplit into a set of different issues, each with the time horizons of leaders in boards,different advocates and organizations rallying C-suites, cabinets or other centers of powerbehind them. The result has been the release is part of the solution. But we believe thatof an immense amount of negative energy as there are actually five dimensions acrossthey fragmented society into different camps which leadership must stretch to take us to aon key issues. The toxic consequences of fusion future. These are shown in Panel 4 onthese silos live on, particularly in areas like pages 18–19.climate change. Nor have we seen the backof this political fission: it is still at work in the It is important to remember that the job of anyrelations between business and government, leader is not only to focus on the future, butthe BRIC and non-BRIC countries, and also to have the ability to work in the spacebetween present and future generations. If between their vision and what is neededthis continues, we risk a future described by at a practical level in order to implementa ‘fission scenario’: a world where the focus that vision under present conditions. Likeis narrower, shallower, lower and shorter than a pendulum swinging to both extremes toit should be—and where, as a result, the best reach the middle, leaders need increasinglythat can be achieved is incremental change. to swing to the right side future quo characteristics (for example, incremental toA more positive scenario foresees a future systemic, or shorter to longer) in order tobased on social fusion, where new initiatives make up for the huge momentum with whichconvene leading businesses and other society has been pulling us back towards theactors to address key challenges. The fusion status quo.agenda depends critically on creating marketand governance conditions where doing theright thing becomes the default setting forbusiness and financial markets. Leadershipwould then involve thinking and investing oversignificantly longer time-scales in pursuit oftransformational system change. @FutureQuo 5 dimensions of high FQ leadership: 1. Systemic 2. Wider 3. Deeper 4. Higher 5. Longer. #FutureQuo
Chapter 2The S-t-r-e-t-c-h Agenda and12 Sectors that Play LongPanel 45 Dimensions of high-FQ leadershipDimension 1 2 Change Scope Incremental Ô Systemic Narrower Ô WiderDescription This first dimension refers to Here we aim to measure the the type of change desired. breadth of organizational In times of fundamental horizons, networks and shifts in the economy, we thinking. In times of intense need to change the focus change, focusing in harder from incremental to system on what has been done in change. If the first 25 the past can be a cardinal years of the sustainability error. Instead, opening agenda have defaulted to horizons for a 360-degree citizenship, responsibility perspective—and creating and accountability goals, partnerships that help the ultimate aim was always migration into new systemic change—which domains. now looks set to be central to the agenda in the next quarter century.FQ50 examples Airbnb London Organising page 31 Committee for the 2012 Olympic and Arab Spring Paralympic Games page 31 (LOCOG) page 30 TED page 30
193 4 5 Analysis Ambition TimescaleShallower Ô Deeper Lower Ô Higher Shorter Ô LongerAs globalization has Here we focus on the To succeed in these wider,extended supply chains, scale of ambition—and the deeper and higher strategies,the capacity for deeper degree to which there is leaders need to operateunderstanding has organizational willingness to against longer time-scales.become stretched to—and stretch. Under stress, human As Seth Godin puts it, peoplesometimes beyond—the beings tend to reset their don’t care about the long-termlimit. The time has come expectations. They typically because: “You don’t intendto dig deeper, to better lower their targets, hoping to to be around; you’re going tounderstand the history, cling on to what they have. make so much money in thescience and likely future Yet the historical evidence short term it doesn’t matter;dynamics of key challenges. suggest that successful or you figure you won’t getWe must fight to avoid the leaders have often done caught.” But, he says: “Theshallow thinking that’s so the complete opposite, thing to remember about thepossible in the world of embracing stretch goals short-term is that we’ll almostendless flows of information. and setting their targets way certainly be around when the higher than others thought long-term shows up.” 28 sensible.Gapminder Lester Brown / Google / Virgin /page 29 Earth Policy Institute 100 Year Plan* page 28 page 31Jochen Zeitz /Puma Paul Polman / *See Appendix F: Addendumpage 30 Unilever page 30 Long Now Foundation page 31
Chapter 2The S-t-r-e-t-c-h Agenda and12 Sectors that Play Long At the same time, such challenges willStretching across the Thames open out tomorrow’s markets. Tomorrow’s economic leaders will be those who map,So where would you look for industries, build and capture a share of emerging mega-companies and business models that address opportunities, advancing transformativethese different dimensions of change—and strategies at the pace and scale required toparticularly extended time dimensions? One meet the relevant challenges. The ‘winners’answer spotlighted in our 12 sectors is civil will be those with solutions that meet globalengineering. A particularly striking example demands for resources like energy and water,of explicit, thoughtful trading between the eliminate greenhouse gas concentrations, andinterests of present and future generations, enable climate-resilient development.30brought to our attention by the WorldResources Institute (WRI), was the processthat resulted in the Thames Barrier—whichcost nearly £500 million. 12 long-sighted sectorsDecision-makers embraced a flexible approach We have identified 12 sectors that havefor managing uncertainty—so that the Barrier, a propensity for long-term thinking anddesigned to protect London from flooding, acting. The leaders in these sectors havecan withstand multiple levels of future sea demonstrated a high future orientation, thoughlevel rise. For each adaptation option, WRI they do not uniformly have this property. Theynotes, the project assessed: the key threshold are listed below—and it is no accident that fourof climate change at which that option would (venture capital, private wealth management,be required (e.g. the extreme water level); the pension funds and reinsurance) are from thelead time needed to implement that option; financial sector—this is increasingly where theand therefore, the estimated decision-point Future Quotient spotlight must shine. Whatto trigger that implementation (in terms of an lessons can we learn from such sectors inindicator value, such as the observed extreme designing systems that promote and reinforcewater level, along with an uncertainty range). high-FQ attitudes, behaviors and cultures?The Thames Estuary 2100 project is nowlooking at the next 100 years of this barrier. 1 Animal BreedingIt has identified adaptation measures that canbe sequenced over time, depending on the The first of our ‘long now’ sectors dates backsignificance of the risks identified—in terms to the dawn of the Agricultural Revolution.of rising sea levels off the UK coastline. The The generations are shorter, but animalapproach was informed not only by forecasting, breeders—by definition—think inter-but also by socio-economic scenarios used generationally. Whether they use artificialto explore cultural and consequent land-use insemination, in vitro fertilization, geneticpossibilities for the coming decades. The costs modification or cloning, they aim to accelerateof defending London against flooding are huge: evolution.modeling suggests that investment in buildingand maintaining of flood defenses will need to From Kentucky stud farms, through attempts toalmost double to £1 billion a year (compared engineer species that produce pharmaceuticalsto £570 million now) by 2035.29 in their blood or milk, there is an ongoing tension between the desire for purebredsTrading off the need—and ability to pay— and the necessity for crossbreeding. In someof present and future generations led to a cases, hybrid vigor may result. Unsustainabledecision to design a modular system, good outcomes are very possible, for example whenenough for the foreseeable future, but modular new breeds of farmed fish escape and reduceso that it can be extended to meet future the resilience of wild fish.contingencies.
212 Research & Development (R&D) 4 Higher EducationThis is an immense, crucial part of the global Few sectors have had a longer-term orientationeconomy. A few years back, it was estimated than higher education when at its best.that US-headquartered companies alone were Globalization, however, has driven a rapidspending $330 billion a year on R&D.31 expansion of the global higher education market. Coupled with neo-liberal economics,There is a continual tension between the the dominant paradigm in recent times, thepressure for short-term paybacks and the historic emphasis on education as a ‘publicneed for longer-term innovation. The need good’ has increasingly been counter-weightedfor sustainability-oriented innovation is made by education seen on a user-pays basis.35in the WBCSD Vision 2050 study.32 Relatedinvestment in infrastructure, technology and One impact of globalization, however, hashuman services could reach US$ 3-10 trillion been a greater focus on the practical, technicalper annum in 2050, creating new opportunities value of education, coupled with the spread offor business to thrive and grow. Will China’s private high education provision and financing.long-term outlook power sustainability-oriented While there is nothing intrinsically wrong here,R&D, or will its unwillingness to tolerate dissent one area of concern is whether this refocusingundermine the necessary creativity? Will the potentially acts as an even greater brake on theWest wake up and play catch-up? provision of longer term, sustainability-oriented education. Anecdotal evidence suggests that it does, though only time will tell.3 Petroleum and ChemicalsIt is dangerous to generalize about something 5 Family Businessesas vast as the oil and global chemicalsindustries, but both are critically important to Unless they are royal families, family-ownedour future—and plan and invest long-term. businesses are easy to overlook in the marketsWith more than 70,000 products and annual focused on publicly listed companies, yet theyrevenues of some $4 trillion,33 the global are thought to create some 70-90% of globalchemicals industry is a massive investor—and GDP annually.36 Recent evidence suggestsis a major contributor to global R&D. that they managed fairly well through the Great Recession. A PwC survey of more than 1,600In terms of the future, we need to watch family-business owners and managers aroundtrends in location, ownership and values. New the world suggests that most are stronglyglobal chemical players continue to appear focused on future growth.37in emerging markets. In 2009, only two ofthe ten largest companies by revenue in the Family firms can operate on a huge scale,‘Chemical Week Billion Dollar Club’ were based like India’s Tata Group, and—at their best—in emerging markets.34 By 2020, up to seven their intergenerational nature can help themof the ten largest chemical companies could think and act longer-term than many publiclybe based there as the current largest players listed firms. Stewardship is a natural conceptpursue profitability over scale. for many of them.38 That said, they can also be compromised by family factions andWherever based, few sectors are more critical, intergenerational disputes. Family businessesboth because of the long-term impact of are part of the global economy we need torelated products on the biosphere and the engage more effectively.potential contribution of sustainable chemistryto a lower-footprint global economy.
Chapter 2The S-t-r-e-t-c-h Agenda and12 Sectors that Play Long6 Venture Capital 8 Pension FundsThey may not hold investments for Although several CEOs and academics warnedintergenerationally-long periods, but us that even pension funds are becomingventure capitalists have to envision radical, shorter-term in their thinking, due to pressurestransformative change in order to find suitable from short reporting timescales, this sectorearly-stage companies to back. The last has been involved in a number of initiativesdecade was a helter-skelter ride for the global designed to explore and address longer-venture industry.39 In 2000, it experienced its term societal challenges. They include thegreatest boom, fueled by the potential of the P8 Group and other efforts to engage withInternet and rising stock markets. In 2009, climate change in terms of strategic assetit faced the challenge of continuing to build allocation 40 and PharmaFutures, which hasinnovative companies as the global economy helped pensions funds and pharmaceuticaltouched the depths of the greatest economic majors deliver long-term value to societydownturn in a generation. and shareholders. This includes addressing critical issues such as the management ofIn between, it responded to the emergence social contract, the environment, and accessof China and India as venture capital centers, to medicines. There has also been growingas well as changes in the public markets and interest in how best to alert pension fundinvestor appetite for venture-backed IPOs, and trustees to potential risks and opportunitiesthe sudden rise of investment opportunities associated with the wider sustainabilityin social media and cleantech. Firms like agenda.41 The evidence of truly long-termKleiner Perkins, Khosla Ventures and zouk sustainability investment is mixed: in Germany,ventures are among those spurring cleantech there is interest among pensions funds, butforward. A sector to investigate and cultivate. actual investment is below average;42 in Denmark, meanwhile, PensionDanmark is investing in wind power.43 With aging societies,7 Private Wealth Management this sector can only grow in importance.Very much under-the-radar, this sector helpshigh net worth individuals and families handle 9 Reinsurancesuch areas as investment, estate management,retirement planning and inheritance tax. Time Another relatively stealthy sector, but one withhorizons are different here, with concerns unusually extended time-scales, reinsurancenot only about the interests of individuals, involves insurers transferring portions of theirbut also about families and about the risk portfolios to other parties—in this caseinstitutions or businesses created. There reinsurance companies like Munich Re oris a potential crossover with the field of Swiss Re—through some form of agreementprivate equity, another financial sector that, to reduce the likelihood of the insurers havingat its best, thinks longer-term. There is also to pay a large obligation resulting fromsometimes a crossover, through the interests insurance claims. As the insurance industryof the individuals, between these areas and is increasingly hit by claims linked to naturalphilanthropic support of wider causes. disasters, particularly those driven by climate change, reinsurers have become much moreAs a result, some family offices are notable interested in environmental changes and theinvestors in areas of the economy linking to broader sustainability agendas. Munich Resocial or sustainability challenges, steered by has been among those warning about the likelythe interests and perspectives of investors. future impact of climate change.44A growing number of financial institutionsspecialize in helping investors to apply a green Among the systemic risks spotlighted by theor sustainability lens, including Deutsche Centre for Global Dialogue, founded byBank, Pictet and Bank Sarasin. Swiss Re, challenges around sustainability are high on the list.45 Stealthy, but a natural ally for the long-term change movement.
2310 Forestry 12 GovernmentDepending on whether it grows softwoods There is concern around the role ofor hardwoods, a forestry business operates governments in thinking and acting long-on commercial time-scales that are short-, term, as shown in our survey data (Figure 1.1,medium- or long-term by mainstream page 11), but there are few truly free markets:standards. The plight of the global forest governments influence how business is donehas been a defining environmental issue, in many ways, direct and indirect. In manywith sectors like cattle ranching and oil palm societies, governments—at their best—alsoplantations particularly controversial in terms of think longer-term than most businesses. Fortheir contributions to forest loss. each of the other eleven sectors spotlighted, effective, sustainability-oriented governmentTheoretically, there is enough wood to supply is necessary for future progress. Equally,global wood requirements.46 An analysis carried governments around the world face newout by WWF and the World Bank indicated demands, new expectations and a fast-that by sustainably managing 60% of the growing array of new technologies and tools.world’s forests, at different levels of intensity In most countries, the civil service systemsand for different purposes, we could protect of today’s governments require considerablethe remaining 40%. Our success in protecting modernization.51 At the same time as slimmingthe global forest will be a key indicator of down governments and their civil services,sustainability—and the sector’s leading edge we must rebuild the social contract betweeninitiatives could provide a useful model for other governments and citizens through the usesectors. One company to watch is Sweden’s of such techniques as open governmentSveaskog, which sees a bright future in such and open data. And more can be done toareas as ecological services.47 Another key attune public sector purchasing to emerginggroup focusing on this issue is REDD+, the realities, something the US General ServicesUN Collaborative Programme on Reducing Administration (GSA) is increasingly workingEmissions from Deforestation and Forest on.52Degradation in Developing Countries. There is not the space here to dig into the11 Civil Engineering lessons to be learned from such sectors—nor the ways in which their own Future QuotientsFew sectors think longer-term than civil might be expanded. But it is no accident thatengineering, whether building oil refineries, we end with Government. Rarely popular withmotorways, dams, urban infrastructures or sea business, and rated lowest of all in Figure 1.1defenses. As Siemens notes, what happens in (page 11), governments nonetheless have athe world’s cities will largely determine whether crucial role to play in ensuring markets thinkhumanity can lower its common environmental and invest for the long-term.footprint, or whether it will face a greaterenvironmental risk.48 The UN Population There is no such thing, it is often said, as a trulyDivision estimates that over half of the world’s free market, and our challenge for the comingpopulation now lives in urban areas, likely to decades is to design, incentivize, regulate andgrow to almost 60% by 2025 and 70% by police our markets in new ways fit for purpose2050.49 Today’s cities are already responsible in the twenty-first century. To get some sensefor about 80% of greenhouse gas emissions,50 of the directions that high-FQ pioneers aremaking them carbon inefficient—but this need taking, we now spotlight 50 Stars in seriouslynot be so. long-term innovation.Cities have built-in economies of scalethat should enable much lower averageenvironmental footprints for residents.Achieving these savings means takingchallenges like global warming, water use orwaste seriously—and creating the enablinginfrastructures.
Chapter 350 Stars in SeriouslyLong-Term InnovationAt times it seems that everyone wants to be astar, but few are prepared to put in the necessarytime and effort. Here are 50 individuals, initiativesand organizations that are first magnitudestars—or headed in that direction.
25“We are on a journey,” CEOs like to say as Clearly, the best leadership decisions playthey sign up to the sustainability agenda. across many—or all—of these dimensions.What they often mean is that the outlines of To take just one striking recent example, recalltheir enterprise are vague, the destination the decision of 200 Japanese pensionersunclear, the captain and crew distracted, and to volunteer to begin the cleanup at thethe sailing date still to be agreed. But the Fukushima power station.53 Made up of retiredleaders who feature among our 50 high Future professionals, the ‘Skilled Veterans Corps’Quotient Stars mean something very different clearly think long-term, arguing that they shouldwhere they use the phrase. be facing the radioactive risks, not younger people, because they would be more likely toSo what are the characteristics we need to die of natural causes before the cancer risksadopt to ensure the new, stretched, future- told. Such forms of collaboration and cross-friendly forms of leadership highlighted in the generational sensitivity are deeply cultural,previous chapter? We asked our 500 expert which is why the cultural dimensions of changerespondents what qualities enable thinking and are critically important.acting with stretch. When we crunched thenumbers strong patterns began to emerge— On pages 28–31 is the final sample of 50and, ultimately, seven key themes surfaced. Stars we identified, as mini cases of differentMost of them are now commonplace in the characteristics of high-FQ thinking and action.management and leadership literatures, but The selection is based on rigorous discussion,a couple are not, and the combination of all but is by no means definitive—indeed is quiteseven helped develop the framework used to skewed to the USA and Europe. As youidentify the FQ50. view the 50 Stars, think of them as the sort of pattern you might see when you shake aOur respondents suggested that high-FQ kaleidoscope of brilliant crystals. It would beleaders know how to navigate what we call fascinating to see what happened when wethe 7Cs (see Panel 5 on pages 26–27). shake the kaleidoscope in different parts of the world—or with different age groups. To draw out the narrative a little, we have clustered the Stars under five categories: Pole Stars, Superstars, Constellations, Pulsars and Neutron Stars—and will explain each as we go. @FutureQuo FQ50 7Cs criteria: 1. Challenging 2. Curious 3. Collaborative 4. Courageous 5. Creative 6. Cross-generational 7. Culturally connected #FQ50Star MagnitudeM0 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
Chapter 350 Stars in SeriouslyLong-Term InnovationPanel 57Cs of High FQ LeadershipCharacteristics + FQ50 example Descriptionkeywords used byrespondents to theFQ survey1 Challenging X Prize Foundation Leaders need a capacity both to scan values, empathy, demonstrate a strong 360-degree horizons and to focus down like passion, purpose change orientation a laser on critically important priorities. page 31 They understand the risk posed by the ‘Chasm’ described earlier. They challenge the status quo. They are driven to change the current order. If they are CEOs, they see beyond the bottom line. If politicians, they operate beyond normal electoral cycles. But the critical point is that they take their investors, customers, employees or voters along with them—to the point where they ask for more change, not less.2 Curious Janine Benyus In times of change, successful—and openness, playful, remain intensely useful—C-suite members are likely to have understanding curious a voracious appetite for new ideas, for new page 28 conversations and for different ways of doing old things—or new things to be done.3 Collaborative Ushahidi The recent business bestsellers tell us that connected, experiment with success comes from being connected, being fusion, generous, new ways to be collaborative, tapping into society’s “cognitive networked collaborative surplus”—or willingness to contribute to open page 30 source methods for developing solutions. Successful leaders are as good on internal collaboration as they are on external forms— and at linking the two.
27Characteristics + FQ50 example Descriptionkeywords used byrespondents to theFQ survey4 Courageous James Lovelock System change demands immense courage, focused, patient, a courageous stand sustained over long timescales. High-FQ risk-tolerant over decades for leaders have courage and stamina, plus an a new scientific ability to adapt when necessary. They also paradigm motivate others to follow their lead. page 285 Creative Living Bridges Low-FQ leaders are the victims of the analysis, ideas, play into creative processes of creative destruction mapped optimism destruction and out by economists like Joseph Schumpeter. renewal Their high-FQ competitors, by contrast, page 28 understand the macro-economic trends, the lessons of history and the drivers in the sustainability agenda that will reshape global markets. For a high FQ solution from the rural world, see Living Bridges, which were born from the need for flood-proof means of crossing rivers.6 Cross- Ian Cheshire / Generational agendas come in many forms. generational Kingfisher and B&Q They differ for product designers and for having children, are comfortable with animal breeders, for family businesses and legacy, long-termist cross-generational pension funds. There are natural selection timeframes processes in most long-sighted sectors page 29 (see Chapter 2) that ensure a better alignment of the business with the interests of stakeholders, and lessons can be learned and transferred to other sectors.7 Culturally The Elders Changing mindsets is tough, but changing connected work to co-evolve the behaviors is almost impossible at times systemic thinking, cultural context unless you also change cultures. That is what vision page 29 a growing number of pioneers are attempting. Done well, this takes us several steps towards paradigm change.
Chapter 350 Stars in SeriouslyLong-Term Innovation She has continued to lead long- Living BridgesPole Stars sighted change through her work as Unknown IndiaReliable, navigational reference points Director-General of the World Health http://rootbridges.blogspot.com Organization (1998-2003), and Special Perhaps the epitome of inter-Aspen Institute’s Envoy of the UN Secretary-General on generational innovation, and certainlyLong-Term Value Principles Climate Change (2007 to date). the most sustainable bridges in the2007 USA world, these beautiful and immenselywww.aspeninstitute.org Jeremy Grantham / strong tree-root bridges span rivers ofRepresenting an unprecedented GMO Northern India. Taking half a generationconsensus among companies, 1977/2011 UK/USA to complete, as roots are teased andinvestors, and corporate governance www.gmo.com/america woven to create bridges up to 100 feetprofessionals, the Principles promote A British-born investor who co-founded long, many last for at least 500 years.exactly the sort of thinking and Boston-based asset management A benchmark for innovators of todaypractices that are critical to long-term GMO in 1977, Grantham takes a very who aim high for future-fit ideas.value creation. long-term view in his investment—and has published several fascinating letters James LovelockJanine Benyus for investors on where we currently find 1919 UK1958 USA ourselves. Also funds research, www.jameslovelock.orgwww.janinebenyus.com for example, on climate change.54 Originator of the Gaia Theory, heA natural sciences writer, innovation A fascinating model for other financial argues that the earth as a whole is aconsultant, and author of six books, analysts and investors. self-regulating system able to keepincluding Biomimicry: Innovation the climate and chemical compositionInspired by Nature. Although standing James E Hansen comfortable for organisms. Patienceon the shoulders of giants, she branded 1941 USA and conviction saw this paradigm-levelan emerging discipline that seeks www.stormsofmygrandchildren.com theory weather many criticisms, andsustainable solutions by emulating Described as the Paul Revere of elements of it achieved widespreadnature’s designs and processes (e.g. impending climate chaos, Dr Hansen acceptance in the early 2000s. It hassolar cells that mimic leaves, agriculture is a world-class climate scientist, who been described by one former critic asthat models a prairie, businesses that has take an active stance on the policy a ’Copernican insight’.run like redwood forests). issues—including writing the book Storms of My Grandchildren. Stockholm Resilience CentreLester Brown 2007 Sweden1934 USA Institute for the Future www.stockholmresilience.orgwww.earth-policy.org 1968 USA Resilience—the ability to deal withFounder of the Worldwatch Institute www.iftf.org change and continue to develop—isand the Earth Policy Institute, author For the past 40 years, this non-profit a property closely linked with fitnessand co-author of around 50 books, has helped organizations make better for the future. This international centrepublished in some 40 languages, decisions through foresight. Their 2008 advances research for governanceand careful to balance coverage of Sustainable Outlook Map explored of social-ecological systems, lookingthe world’s greatest challenges possible strategic responses to the at how we can culturally, and(e.g. loss of biodiversity, climate sustainability agenda, and they have intergenerationally, manage and governchange, poverty) and emerging a rolling 10-year forecast. for the future.solutions (e.g. smart grids, electricvehicles, bicycles). Recently has The Intergenerational Foundation The Economics of Ecosystemstaken a civilizational perspective. 2010 UK and Biodiversity (TEEB) www.if.org.uk 2007 InternationalGro Harlem Brundtland This fledgling non-profit seeks to place www.teebweb.org1939 Norway intergenerational issues at the heart Biodiversity loss is often framed inhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/gro_ of public debate—both between living intergenerational terms—we haveharlem_brundtland generations and on intergenerational species today that our children willA medical doctor by training, and timescales. Working in partnership with never see. TEEB aims to spur theaged just seven when she joined a German counterpart—Foundation for development of cultures that valuethe Norwegian Labour Movement, the Rights of Future Generations—they biodiversity. It treads the middleBrundtland served as Norway’s are encouraging research into the area ground between the moral imperativeminister for environmental affairs before with a prize. Watch this space. and the hard economic case for thebecoming the country’s first female conservation of ecosystems. Under theprime minister in 1981. She was leadership of Pavan Sukhdev, TEEBinstrumental in propelling environmental has developed an agenda for decision-responsibility to the international takers and policy-makers that will beagenda through the 1987 report hard to ignore.Our Common Future (also knownas the Brundtland report).
29Santa Fe Institute Ian Cheshire / Garth Japhet /1984 USA Kingfisher and B&Q Soul City and Heart Lineswww.santafe.edu 1982 UK 1992/2002 South AfricaA centre designed to bring thinkers www.kingfisher.co.uk www.heartlines.co.zatogether to work across disciplines to Led by Ian Cheshire, a leader who A widely celebrated social entrepreneur,solve complex problems. The research is walking the talk of sustainability, Japhet founded Soul City Instituteinto complexity and systems thinking Kingfisher is the parent company to for Health and Developmentallows for deep exploration of issues DIY superstore B&Q. In building the Communication to use mass media toand areas, including intergenerationally- company for the future, they take stock educate the public on health issues.specific topics such as the dynamics not just of the views of employees, Also founded Heartlines to focusand sustainability of cities. but also of those of the children of on such issues as HIV/AIDS, youth employees—among other things asking sexuality and violence against women.World Future Council them what they think of their parents’2007 Germany jobs. The Bill & Melinda Gateswww.worldfuturecouncil.org FoundationAs the ‘voice of future generations,’ DSM and DSM NEXT 1994 USAthis charitable organization aims 1902 The Netherlands www.gatesfoundation.orgto encourage the development of www.dsm.comw The Future Quotient of Bill Gatespolicy that properly values the needs A company with competencies in life can be debated, but the work ofand rights of future life. Among their and material sciences, DSM has tied the foundation is nothing short ofcampaigns, the Future Policy Award half the bonuses for its management extraordinary. With over $25 billioncelebrates ‘future just’ policies from board to environmental and social worth of grants committed since itsaround the world and they have also targets such as the reduction of inception, in areas including globalcreated Future Justice, which brought greenhouse gas emissions and energy development and global health, he istogether Ombudsmen for future use, the introduction of environment- now an undisputed leader is such areasgenerations. friendly products and improvements in as health and climate change. workforce morale. Through DSM NEXT, the company is also capitalising on its InSTEDD pool of Gen Y employees, providing 2006 CambodiaSuperstars a platform for them to act on their www.instedd.orgThey shine brilliantly—energizing all ideas to tackle innovation and broader The aim here is to help communitiesaround them sustainability challenges. everywhere design and use technology to continuously improve their health,Aravind Eye Care System The Elders safety and development. Founded in1976 India 2007 UK California’s Silicon Valley with seedwww.aravind.org www.theelders.org funding from Google.org and theWhat started out as an 11-bed hospital Launched by Nelson Mandela, The Rockefeller Foundation, InSTEDD nowis now one of the world’s largest Elders emerged out of a conversation works around the world. One goal:facilities and research/training centers between entrepreneur Sir Richard early detection of emerging pandemics.for eye care. Aravind uses a tiered Branson and musician Peter Gabriel.pricing model and other innovative Convening senior political leaders, Lily Lapenna /business models to provide treatment the aim is to support peace, help MyBnkfor those who would usually be unable tackle major global problems and 2008 UKto afford it—and is rapidly expanding ease human suffering. A prototype for www.mybnk.orgits services across India. Aravind also intergenerational working. An internationally acclaimed socialoperates a manufacturing arm that enterprise that is increasing financialcontinues to design and produce high Gapminder literacy amongst young people,quality ophthalmic products that are 2005 Sweden empowering them to build theboth affordable and accessible. www.gapminder.org knowledge, skills and confidence to The brainchild of statistician Hans manage their money effectively andVera Cordeiro Rosling, Gapminder’s visualization make enterprising choices—a crucially1991 Brazil software shows the world in a important challenge in an era wherewww.saudecrianca.org.br radically different light. By their nature consumerist lifestyles and credit cardA general practitioner, she has worked retrospective, statistics presented debt have collided headlong.to break the cycle of children coming in this way nevertheless exposeback into Brazilian hospitals because insights and trends at a global level,their homes lack the necessary encouraging curiosity and potentiallyresources to ensure adequate nutrition, powerful cross-connections.sanitation and psychological support.The approach she pioneered atAssociação Saúde Criança has spreadto other communities across thecountry.
Chapter 350 Stars in SeriouslyLong-Term InnovationPaul Polman / Unilever Ken Yeang Green Growth / UN ESCAP1956 Netherlands 1948 Malaysia 2005 South Koreawww.unilever.co.uk http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ken_yeang www.greengrowth.orgA finance director turned CEO, he has Known as the ‘father’ of the bioclimatic Nominated as an unusual attempt tobeen responsible for guiding Unilever to skyscraper, Ken recognized early in his bring green growth thinking to bear onscrap quarterly reporting and launch its career the need to apply an ecology- poverty and development challengesSustainable Living Plan. He has spoken based approach to architecture. across Asia, which accounts for 40%out about short-termism, providing Through his use of ‘ecomimicry’, the of the Earth’s land area and 61% of itsa guiding light for other CEOs as he results of over 200 projects he has population. UN initiatives are alwaysseeks to help “drag the world back to designed globally include reduced or complicated, but this one is workingsanity.” zero dependency on non-renewable towards system change in critical sources of energy, and the use of areas.‘Save More Tomorrow’ cutting-edge features such as eco-Pension Scheme land bridges, green living walls and London Organising Committee1998 USA of the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic ecological corridors. A blueprint for allwww.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/ buildings and infrastructure to come. Games (LOCOG)shlomo.benartzi/savemore.htm 2005-2012 UKDesigned by Richard Thaler and Jochen Zeitz / Puma www.london2012.comShlomo Benartzi, ‘Save More 1948 Germany There has been growing interest inTomorrow’ aimed to change behavior www.puma.com green and sustainability issues intowards greater enrolment and volume The first major manufacturer to the Olympics community, but theof savings. By restricting the pension account for the economic value of their 2012 event—which has not beencontribution amount to a portion environmental impact with their 2011 controversy-free—is bending overof future pay rises, this behavioral Environmental P&L, Puma are helping backwards to ensure its legacy iseconomics-like ‘nudge’ enables long- drive a new agenda through business. strongly net positive. Strong supplyterm minded behavior, while avoiding chain initiatives to squeeze out carbon.the barrier of short-term loss. It hasbeen implemented now by a number Republic of Singaporeof pensions providers including those Constellations 1959 Singaporeabroad. In one study, average savings Linking multiple change agents www.gov.sgrates among subscribers almost The third most densely populatedtripled.55 China’s 5-Year Plan country in the world, and an interesting 2011–15 case study in how we might makeShi Zhengrong / Suntech Power 2011 People’s Republic of China sense of a world of 9-10 billion.2001 China http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Singapore leads by planning overwww.suntech-power.com five-year_plans_of_the_people’s_ extended time-horizons, as whenAn increasingly global solar republic_of_china dealing with an aging population andpowerhouse, delivering hardware to China’s government passed its twelfth the resulting pressures on youngergenerate solar power in the home and 5-year plan in March 2011, aiming to generations. Its ‘Top Up for a Lovedas part of some of the world’s biggest address rising inequality and create One’ scheme,56 for instance, createssolar arrays. They have benefitted an environment for more sustainable a tax-efficient way for saving betweenfrom China’s strong support of the growth by prioritizing more equitable family generations. Singapore is alsorenewables sector. wealth distribution, increased domestic developing research and industry consumption, and improved social clusters of new technologies in areasSiemens AG infrastructure and social safety nets. such as biotechnology and cleantech.1847 Germany Way short of perfect, but the rest ofwww.siemens.com the world has a great deal riding on the TEDA global group active in electronics and sustainability of the outcomes. 1984 USAelectrical engineering, and operating www.ted.comin the energy and healthcare sectors. Climate Disclosure A simple mission—spreading ideas—Had recent problems with corruption, Standards Board has seen TED feed the curiosity andbut has shown high-FQ by focusing its 2007 UK fuel the imagination of millions acrossbusiness on cities—where over half of www.cdsb-global.org the globe. They have opened theirus now live. A useful lens on the future A consortium of seven business and doors to wider involvement with theof cities. environmental organizations that crowdsourced TEDx and tapped into works with leading professionals in that crowd’s cognitive surplus in theUshahidi accountancy, business, standard- form of the Open Translation Project.2008 Kenya setting and regulation to develop and Altogether inspirational.www.ushahidi.com advocate a generally-accepted globalUshahidi, meaning ‘testimony’ in framework for use by corporationsSwahili, uses open-source software in disclosing climate change-relatedand mapping technology to collect information in mainstream reports.and visualize data. It empowers people Underscores the central role of theas citizens, seeking to harness the right sort of standardization.transformative change possible throughtechnology that now exists in people’shands and pockets.
31UN Principles for Responsible Google / Virgin / Svalbard Global Seed VaultInvestment (PRI) 100 Year Plan* 2006 Norway2006 International 2008 (Partnership) USA and UK www.nordgen.org/sgsvwww.unpri.org www.google.com/virgle A secure, remote seedbank designedAn effort to deconstruct the widely held Both companies, each known for to preserve a wide range of plantbelief that fiduciary duty and societal their entrepreneurial spirit and drive seeds in an underground cavern,objectives are at odds. Its six principles to challenge the status quo, launched providing insurance against the loss ofrecognize the need to invest with the a joint venture, Virgle Inc., dedicated germplasm and biodiversity because oflong-term interests of beneficiaries in to establishing Plan B in the face of environmental degradation—and alsomind. It now has nearly one thousand environmental degradation—a human offering a refuge for seeds in the caseassessed signatories, over half of which settlement on planet Mars by 2108. of large-scale regional or global crises.are investment managers. It has been We commend this ambition, but hopechallenged by investment consultant that civilization on planet Earth will Thames BarrierRoger Urwin to make intergenerational survive beyond the 21st century. 1982 UKtimescales more explicit in its http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/principles.57 *See Appendix F: Addendum thames_barrier From its inception, the Thames Barrier The Khan Academy was an exercise in cross-generational 2004 USA thinking. As London continues to planPulsars www.khanacademy.org for its future, the Thames Estuary 2100Slightly weird, signalling future Sal Khan teaches the way he wishes project takes this onwards anotherdirections he had been taught. From humble three generations. beginnings as a way to tutor Khan’sAirbnb cousins online, The Khan Academy has World Oral Literature Project2008 US quickly become a major disruption to 2009 UKwww.airbnb.com the way education is delivered around www.oralliterature.orgDarling of the collaborative the world. With 2,400 video tutorials An academic project to document andconsumption movement, Airbnb is available online, and over 73 million disseminate endangered oral literatures,leading the way for the future of the lessons delivered, The Khan Academy World Oral Literature Project is ahospitality industry by helping anyone is helping to evolve the future of fascinating and enlightening initiativewith a spare room, couch, igloo, island education. that respects the huge value in culture.(etc) to become a bed and breakfast— This project specifically looks at verbalusing their computer or an iPhone app. Long Now Foundation art: passing this between generationsIt is set to represent more rooms than 1996 USA lies at the heart of cultural practice.the Hilton by 2012. www.longnow.org Potentially this will provide tomorrow’s Aims to foster long-term thinking and leaders with greater cultural intelligence.Paul Anastas / John Warner / responsibility. One of their main projectsGreen Chemistry is the Clock of the Long Now, designed X Prize Foundation1991 US to tell time over the next 10,000 years. 1995 USAwww.chemicalstrategies.org/ Buried inside a mountain, the Clock www.xprize.orgother_green.htm will chime a different melody every A non-profit organization dedicated toChemicals are critical ingredients to time it chimes in the next millennium. solving the world’s ‘Grand Challenges’the products we consume globally. Also working on the Rosetta Project, by creating and managing large-As more and more pressure is put to digitize all human languages, and scale, high-profile, incentivized prizeon full supply chains, the work of Long Bets, which encourages people competitions that stimulate investmentchemists in cracking the code of some to compete to place their bets about in research and development worthof the most toxic substances and the future. far more than the prize itself—for thetransforming them into less harmful benefit of humanity. Motto: ‘Revolutioncompounds is a big business for the Renault-Nissan Alliance / through Competition.’future. Better Place 2008 France/Japan and Israel/USAAviva Investors / http://blog.alliance-renault-nissan.comForum For The Future All partnerships have their ups and Supernovas2010 (Partnership) UK downs, but the Renault-Nissan High-risk, but opening out immensewww.forumforthefuture.org/forum- agreement to jointly build out the new possibilitiesnetwork/partners/aviva-investors infrastructure for electric vehiclesAviva Investors CEO Paul Abberley is spotlighted the way in which large Arab Springon a mission to influence the direction incumbent companies increasingly 2011 Tunisia/Egypt/Bahrain/Libyaof mainstream investing by taking need to work with innovative http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/arab_springactions such as linking sustainability start-ups. The events which sparked theinto its voting at company annual extraordinary uprising of public protestgeneral meetings. Together with Forum and resistance to oppressive regimesfor the Future, Aviva has developed need no rehearsing here. While ita groundbreaking report on what the is far from clear where all of thissustainable economy will look like in goes next, this series of meltdowns2040. promises to liberate new energies that could be devoted to democracy and sustainability.
Chapter 4Are You Ready to Star?Stars are born all the time—and some shinefor a very long time. Every so often, though,the heavens blaze with a supernova, as a starcollapses and the stuff of new stars and of lifespray through space.
33When we came to the notion of a Future The blending of these three primaryQuotient, one key question was always going perspectives (Past, Present and Future) createsto be, ‘How can I measure my FQ?’. This was in each of us a unique ‘TimeStyle,’ almost anever going to be addressable in this first short form of mental fingerprint. “This, our thinkingreport. We want to apply the FQ concept not style,” MindTime founder John Furey explains,only to individuals but also to businesses, “is responsible for: our individual perceptionsto governments, and even to cities or other of the world, the way we process and learnentities. Each of these applications would new information, our preferences, how werequire its own set of data and analysis. communicate and engage with others, our learning style, and in large part, our behaviors.”So far, we have understood five dimensions And, critically, it shapes how we think of andacross which leadership must stretch to have engage the future.high-FQ. We have seen seven characteristicsthat our expert respondents see as markers To find out your own style of thinking,of high-FQ and 50 high-FQ examples. But the please visit www.mindtimemaps.com/fq—final quantification of FQ is a second-stage the anonymous survey will take only a fewproject that we are keen to undertake, aiming minutes. You will also find a truncated versionto create a tool robust enough for organizations on pages 34–35.to use internally, and in conversation withinvestors and stakeholders. By taking the short test, you will be able to discover how your personal TimeStyle shapesNevertheless, we felt it important to provide your opinions and priorities. You will alsoan interim step towards what a measure of be able to see how your thinking relates toFQ could become. We toyed with creating that of other people around the world as theour own questionnaire, and scanned the survey builds and keeps track of the results.options already in existence. With its strong Importantly, MindTime does not prioritize onelink to the dimension of time in how teams and type of thinking over another, but insteadindividuals think, we adopted an online platform recognises the need for balance within adeveloped by MindTime Technologies as this team. Furey explains that “when working withinterim step. Consider the results an early people of different thinking styles we mustindication of your FQ. first recognise the value of their thinking. Only then can we understand how our thinkingSo how do you—and your team and works in collaboration with theirs rather than inorganization—relate to the world of time? competition.”MindTime’s team of thinkers, philosophers,social scientists and designers developed Therefore, the MindTime methodology cannota simple map to describe the time-based be seen as a measure of Future Quotient—itdimensions of thought, something that the does not result in one number that you or yourlate professor Julian Jaynes of Princeton organization can measure yourself by. CertainlyUniversity had written about. MindTime a lack of ‘Future thinking’ in a group, to use themaps your thinking type on the axes of MindTime concept described below, will spellPast (focusing on certainty), Present a low-FQ, for it is the Future thinkers who are(probability) and Future (possibility). often courageous and the most curious. But a wealth of Future thinkers is not necessarily sufficient for a high-FQ. So let’s take a quick look at how each time frame works.
Chapter 4Are You Ready to Star?Strengths of Past thinking They are visionaries and idealists that inspire our minds. [With all of that in mind, the nextA team or organization weighted to Past two pages open up a simple version of thethinking will tend to evolve a cultural time frame survey to our readers.]that seeks to leverage the past. The team’sthinking strategies mine the past to avoidrisk and increase certainty. As a collective, Test the Testthe team will undoubtedly know what it istalking about. Its members will research what We have created a dipstick test based onis known, accessing individual and collective the deeper MindTime technology that can beexperiences and knowledge from beyond taken in less than 10 minutes, yet provides athe team. They will seek to understand the useful early sense of how individuals, teamsfundamentals and measure and weigh all and organizations think about and engage theevidence carefully before coming to any, even future. Take the full MindTime test at www.tentative, conclusions. Significantly, such teams mindtimemaps.com/fq. But, as a taster, tryand organizations will have an aversion to risk the following steps:of any kind and will resist any action or changethat has not first been carefully thought through Step 1 First, identify a group of people youand vetted. Their greatest virtue is that they want to map (a team, department or division).invest themselves in the pursuit of truth. Complete a MindTime Scorecard (Figure 4.1) by distributing a total of 10 points between the three statements shown. The higher the pointsStrengths of Present thinking assigned to any one, the greater the agreement with how the statement describes your chosenA team or organization dominated by Present group.thinking will tend to evolve a cultural timeframe that is near term. They will focus on Step 2 Second, take the scores assigned forcurrent trends controlling the present towards ‘Present’, ‘Future’ and ‘Past’ in your Scorecarda predetermined or desired goal. They will be and apply them to a MindTime Map (Figurehighly organised and changes in plans will be 4.2). Using the three sets of guide numbersseen as major disruptions to continuity, the end along their respective edges, draw three linesgame of Present thinkers. Existing organising across the map.structures, processes and systems are seenas the means to control and manage forward. Step 3 Third, shade in the area between theThe future is not something to be explored three lines you have drawn. The shaded areaand exploited; it is something to be navigated. represents the cultural drivers of the mappedRules are used to shape people’s behaviors group’s thinking. Is it skewed towards onetowards intended outcomes. Present thinkers ‘trisect’ of the map? If so, turn back to theget the job done, on time and on budget. characteristic strengths listed on this page to gain some initial insight.Strengths of Future thinking Step 4 To check how your own perspective might have influenced your answers in theA team or organization weighted to Future group mapping exercise, answer the threethinking will tend to evolve a cultural time frame statements just with yourself in mind. Again,focused on what’s next. They move towards plot your place on the map. Draw a circle orareas of chaos and uncertainty where new dot to represent your own positioning.ideas and possibilities emerge, the end gameof Future thinkers. Quick to change course and So how do you now think you fit in withadapt, and highly tolerant to risk and ambiguity, the dominant cultural thinking style of thea Future thinking team will engage most of all in group you mapped? And how might yourspeculation and be driven by challenges. They position be influencing your perceptionswill pursue possibility, often with little more than of the rest of—and interactions with—thetheir intuition to guide them, using imagination wider group? More about the theory andto problem solve what is in front of them. Their methodology of MindTime can be found atgreatest virtue is that they bring hope. http://learning.mindtime.com
35Figure 4.1Example of CompletedMindTime ScorecardStatement Disagree AgreePast Analytical with focus on risk reduction 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Present Procedural with focus on execution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Future Innovative with focus on possibilities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Total (Past + Present + Future) = 10Figure 4.2Example of CompletedMindTime Map Present Probability 10 1 9 2 8 3 Score 7 4 6 5 Score 5 6 4 7 3 8 2 9 1 10 Past 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Future Certainty Score Possibility@FutureQuo How do you + your teamrelate to the world of time? Create your own#mindtime map with this 4min online quizhttp://www.mindtimemaps.com/fq
Chapter 5Expand Your FQ:A Playbook to Get Started b a e d g zThe astrolabe was an early form of computer,designed to calculate the position of key starsas a means of navigation. In the same way,consider using our 50 stars to plot your ownfuture course.
37Human beings have always had an appetite Panel 6to know where the future might take them. A quick start guide to expanding your FQThink of the Oracle at Delphi, Nostradamus,tarot cards and the like. Strikingly, Wikipediaoffers 16 pages of entries on different forms In the pages that follow, you will find our firstof divination alone, starting with abacomancy stab at an ‘FQ Playbook’—spotlighting some(interpreting patterns in dust or funerary ashes) of the things that investors, businesses andthrough to zygomancy (using weights).58 governments can do to improve their FQ and engage with the future. Some of these you willToday, there are ‘harder’ tools that can be used already be doing, some won’t be right for you,to build projections of what the future may and some will take time to implement. But inhold. For example, actuaries mathematically the spirit of curiosity, we believe that there areevaluate the likelihood of events and five things that you can do now in addition toquantify the outcomes in order to minimize exploring your own and group’s TimeStyle atlosses, particularly financial, associated with www.mindtimemaps.com/fq. Together, theseundesirable events. And there is also a growing form a ‘quick start guide’ to evolving yourarray of ‘softer’ tools, among them the use of individual or collective FQ.scenarios. Incremental Ô SystemicWe have no ambition to be the present-day Write down one fundamental thing that youversion of Delphi, and of course being fit for the would like to change about the rules that seemfuture isn’t simply about trying to predict what to govern how you or your organization aremight come to pass. However, as this side of expected to operate.our work evolves, we hope to develop a toolkitto help expand the world’s capacity to engage Narrower Ô Widerfuture challenges and opportunities. Draw a map of you or your organization in the wider stakeholder landscape. Do not put your company at the centre, and include at least fiveFQ Playbook 1.0 potentially relevant organizations you wouldn’t usually consider part of that landscape.What follows is a listing of some of theprinciples, models and tools identified through Shallower Ô Deeperour survey and other research that potentially Spend 20 minutes watching a recent TED talk,allows individuals, teams and organizations or reading a Wikipedia entry or research briefto boost their Future Quotient. With the next on a topic you think you and your organizationquarter century in mind, and as a placeholder need to understand better. Is it something youfor the ultimate FQ Playbook, we now offer would tweet?28 pointers to investors, businesses andgovernments on how to more effectively Lower Ô Higherengage the future. Formulate an audacious target you’d like to hit—and consider what sort of timescale would be appropriate. Shorter Ô Longer Ask yourself, how old will you be in 2030 or 2050? 59 What might you then have wanted your current self to have done today?
Chapter 5Expand Your FQ:A Playbook to Get Started The fourth of these aims to rethink theFQ for Investors concept of value—taking a long-term and intergenerational approach.64 Among other1 initiatives under way is Forum for the Future’sDevelop triple bottom line scorecards joint venture with the Friends ProvidentSocial Venture Capital funds, such as Bridges Foundation, which has produced an excellentVentures in the UK and Physic Ventures in report called Overcoming the Barriers to Long-the US, use specially designed scorecards for term Thinking in Financial Markets,65 including aeach of their portfolio companies that illustrate review of the recommendations of other reportswhere their investments are creating value for on the theme, and the Tomorrow’s Companythe future beyond a simple financial return. investigation into the question, ‘Do Capital Markets Incentivize Sustainable Business2 Behavior?’ 66 Forum for the Future has alsoReview your discount rates been working with Aviva on a roadmap forThe discount rate allows investors to choose capital markets, entitled Sustainable Economyinvestments today by looking at the risks in in 2040.67investing in a business or project. It’s time tothink not status quo but future quo. Reviewyour discount rates for investments in the lightof the sort of trajectories indicated by our 50 FQ for BusinessesStars. It may make sense to use a significantlylower rate in some areas, as argued by 5 Nicholas Stern, in his Review of the Economics Consider your fiduciary dutyof Climate Change.60 This is an existing model used in governance where the sustainability agenda can and should3 be framed. For your next board meeting,Quantify everything, even if it is free today include fiduciary duty as a discussion topic toGreg Laughlin, an assistant professor from engage your board in what they think of thethe University of California, Santa Cruz, term and how it relates to your organizationhas attempted to ‘value the world’, coming maintaining its status as a ‘going concern’.up with a valuation of five quadrillion dollars,or $5,000,000,000,000,000.61 See also 6 The Economics of Ecosystems and See opportunity in tomorrow’s needsBiodiversity (TEEB) study, led by Pavan As one of our Advisory Group members,Sukhdev 62 and the Volans report, The Sophia Tickell, noted: “Today’s leaders need toBiosphere Economy (see Appendix E). Full- combine this skill with a systems perspective.cost accounting has been slow to take off, To identify interconnections and dependenciesbut it is the future. So how is your organization that either did not exist, or were not previouslyaccounting for the resources it draws down visible, and to manage them accordingly.”from our asset base of natural capital? Learnfrom Puma, which has begun to publish 7 an Environmental Profit & Loss account Create an external expert advisory board(EPL), valuing the greenhouse gas and water Even the sketchiest of maps can help thoseconsumption impacts of the company’s navigating in new, uncharted waters. It paysoperations and supply chain at €94.4 million to talk to those who have been there before.($133.5 million).63 There is a growing number of think-tanks devoted to the future, among them the long-4 established Global Business Network (GBN),Surf the long-finance wave now part of the Monitor Group, and theAn important project in the financial sector Institute for the Future. Mobilize a team ofis the Long Finance Initiative. “When would external experts with specialization in a rangewe know our financial system is working?” is of topics to your board. Award yourselvesthe question underlying Long Finance’s goal bonus points if this advisory group includesto improve society’s understanding and use members from multiple generations.of finance over the long term. There are fourprograms: London Accord, Financial CentreFutures, Meta-Commerce and Eternal Coin.
398 12 Find new data sources Build scenariosNew forms of forecasting are constantly Shell continues to update their two energyemerging, among them the monitoring scenarios, Scrabble and Blueprint, which linkof search engines like Google and social back to techniques first developed forty yearsnetworks like Twitter—though these lines ago. “The future is ‘terra incognita’,” saysare blurring fast. New organizations are being Shell, “although we may be able to guess thelaunched to detect early signs of impending outcome of events that lie close to us, as wedisease outbreaks, particularly pandemics, project beyond this we enter an unmappedamong them InSTEDD. Among other useful zone full of uncertainty. Paradoxically, the rangesources suggested by survey respondents of options this reveals can seem paralysing.were Deutsche Bank,68 Frost & Sullivan,69 No one can definitively map the future, butHSBC,70 Mercer 71 and the Cleantech we can explore the possibilities in ways thatGroup,72 alongside think-tanks like the are specifically intended to support decision-Institute for the Future, the Foresight making.” 74 One of the most useful websitesNetwork and the World Future Society. featuring scenario tools for sustainable development is the aptly named Scenarios9 for Sustainability.Create long-term incentivesAlign senior executives’ compensation and 13 incentives with business strategy and long- Create roadmapsterm metrics. Institutional investors ensure that Like blueprints, roadmaps can help us get aperformance measures and compensation sense of the future—though lawyers have longpolicies—including annual bonuses, long- lobbied to stop companies including them interm incentives, and retirement plans—for their annual non-financial reports, arguing thatexecutives and investment managers they imply future commitments. Which theyemphasise long-term value creation. Check do. This is what Volans aimed to do a fewout the Aspen Institute’s Long-Term Value years back with the 5-stage Pathways to ScalePrinciples. model.75 One useful roadmap was produced by Ceres, setting out 20 expectations for10 sustainability that companies should startTake back power implementing to be considered sustainableBy insisting on reports on a company’s going forward.76 The report has more thanperformance at regular short-term intervals, 200 company best practice examples acrossanalysts have made the market inherently 20 sectors. It also features more than 250impatient and institutionalized a set of norms resources and tools from a wide range ofthat counter the opportunities in long-term global experts, organizations and thoughtvalue creation. Recognizing this, Unilever took leaders.a first step towards reducing the strangleholdof analysts by refusing to provide share 14 guidance on a quarterly basis. Nestlé has Go intergenerationaldone this for a very long time. Who’s brave Actively seek input from the next generationenough to step up next? to glean how their values compare to your business model. Be open to enthusiasm as11 well as criticism. Kingfisher and B&Q foundClarify your values this through an internal process where theKnow what strengths and weaknesses children of employees commented on theircharacterize your team or organization. One parents’ work—inspiring a candid conversationof the approaches we like is that developed on how the company can continue its quest forby the Barrett Values Centre. Their core intergenerational sustainability.products are called Cultural TransformationTools (CTT).73 These have been used to mapthe values of over 3,000 organizations and2,000 leaders in 50 countries. The linked valuesassessment instruments are now available inover 30 languages. Ultimately, though, valueshave to be expressed to be effective.
Chapter 5Expand Your FQ:A Playbook to Get Started15 19 Ride your intuition Feed your networksFaced with complexity, the human brain often As investor Warren Buffett is reputed tojumps to conclusions, or more positively it have said, “If you want to go fast, travelintuits. Successful business leaders aim to alone. If you want to go far, go together.”detect emerging S-curves 77 early, with a view One of Kevin Kelly’s core ‘Rules of the Newto surfing them for all they are worth. And, Economy’ is ‘Feed the Network’.78 And therelike surfers, the best leaders sense the future has been a huge growth in recent decades inwell before it arrives—but their challenge membership organizations that are looking atthen is how to explain their vision to key sustainability issues for the future, includingstakeholders without complete data to prove World Business Council for Sustainabletheir hypothesis. Development (WBCSD), which recently produced its Vision 2050 study,79 the World16 Economic Forum (WEF) which just launchedMake a game of it its Global Shapers Community that bringsLet’s face it, the challenges we face are together future leaders of society aged 20-complex, frightening and likely to be kicked 30 years,80 and the United Nations Globalfurther along the road, like the proverbial tin- Compact (UNGC), which convenes overcan, for someone else to deal with. Which 6,000 companies in the sustainability space.is why we need to keep a positive outlook If you aren’t already a member of one of theseand find ways to both work together and organizations, join and help shape their agendacompete to bring about the best solutions. and work.That’s why we like organizations such as theX Prize Foundation (‘Revolution through 20 Competition’), Innocentive, the INDEX Tap into collective intelligenceAwards and Katerva. There are also now One long-established method for gettingdozens of online games that allow a player a sense of the future has been the Delphito ‘role play’ into the future, such as Red Method, an interactive forecasting processRedemption’s Fate of the World game. tapping into panels of experts in order toFind ways to leverage the gaming element in build collective intelligence. More recently, weyour organization through inter- and intra-level have seen experimentation with predictiongames anchored in business issues markets—which, as the name suggests,you anticipate for the future. are speculative markets designed to help make predictions. Crowd sourcing and other17 forms of open source innovation are alsoAdopt and apply long-term metrics increasingly popular, with key players includingA critical resource here is the set of principles Innocentive, which span out from Eli Lilly.created by the Aspen Institute. And anorganization well worth engaging is the 21 Long Finance Initiative, as mentioned in View the glass as half fullpoint 4 on page 38. Research shows that our images of the future play a crucial role in shaping what we do—and18 how effectively we do it.81 “Pessimism andLook back to the future cynicism sap our willingness to confront theTo get a grip on the trajectories of the future, wrongs in the world,” said Worldchangingit can help to dig back into history, looking for editor Alex Steffen. “They make us fearful.patterns and trajectories. Paul Saffo’s rules of They make us small. Optimism, on the otherforecasting include the recommendation to hand, makes us bigger. It helps us envision a“look back twice as far as forward.” That’s better future, connects us to new friends andwhat near-legendary investment analyst allies, turns our hopes into strengths: optimismJeremy Grantham of GMO does. makes us worldchanging.”
4122 26 Speak up Engage the publicLeaders need not only to act in their own Open source methods can help open outorganizations but to speak up publicly. public understanding of the drivers of futureThat’s why the voices of such high-FQ Stars challenges and opportunities. Before it wasas Lester Brown (Earth Policy Institute), shut down, the UK Royal Commission onthe late, great Ray Anderson (Interface),82 Environmental Pollution did useful work onPaul Polman of Unilever and Jochen Zeitz likely future links between demography andof Puma have been—and will continue to be— environment.so important. 27 23 Shape marketsExplore behaviors One interviewee noted that companies rarelyBehavior change will be part of successful push the boundary where the market does notsystem change and high-FQ stars are all dictate that they do so. Rather, like ants, theychange agents. Yet understanding how to follow marker “pheromone trails.” 87 He hadchange behaviors is easier said than done. been involved in a multi-centre, pan-EU studyEngage with the theories of behavior change, that concluded that Europe should raise itsbe it behavioral economics thinking popularised carbon reduction targets from 20% to 30% byby Nudge,83 or ‘social marketing’ research such 2020.88 Among the benefits foreseen were thatas that conducted by the UK Government’s the EU could increase its growth rate by up toCentral Office of Information.84 0.6% per year, create up to 6 million additional jobs Europe-wide, boost European investments24 from 18% to up to 22% of GDP, increaseBoost your cultural intelligence European GDP by up to $842 billion (2004Cultures determine the unwritten rules of values). In the event, however, MEPs votedbehavior. Leaders of change understand and the proposal down, for the moment showingengage with the different cultures within their low-FQ.89stakeholder base. Reports like UNESCO’s‘Investing in Cultural Diversity and Intercultural 28 Dialogue’ 85 highlight some of the determinants Engage tomorrow’s stakeholdersof cultural diversity, including language, Expect advocates to take legal action ineducation and modes of communication. the name of future generations, as we have already seen in the USA—where a group of interests convened as Our Children’s Trust have taken legal action against the federalFQ for Governments government in relation to climate change.90 The challenge will be to get ahead of the curve.25 By no means finally, but intriguingly, FutureAccount for the future Justice promotes Ombudspersons for FutureGovernments already use various methods Generations at all governance levels.of generational accounting to address theintergenerational transfers of financial burdens,as in the pensions sector. Interest is likely togrow in this field as we see growing concernabout the longer-term economic and socialimplications of the aging of populations in manycountries. Intergenerational tensions are likelyto be aggravated in economically decliningregions, as the future is seen to shift elsewhereand emerging challenges around naturalresource and environmental security intensify.Civil society needs to focus more attentionon public sector discount rates andaccounting principles and practices, as theIntergenerational Foundation has done.
Chapter 6The Quotient’s FutureAs the stars revolve overhead, some see anatural clock, some draw the sort of inspirationthat spurred artists like van Gogh, some pushback the frontiers of science and technology—and others look for clues to our common future.
43Like fireflies in a jam-jar, our 50 Stars are a We have tried to be somewhat objective, but asample of future-oriented individuals, initiatives large measure of serendipity helped shape theand organizations that came up in our trawl of thinking outlined in The Future Quotient.our networks. They shed light on our subject, It operated when Volans found an alignment ofbut are by no means a definitive sample. interest with JWT, and then when Atkins, TheWe spotlight them to suggest possible ways Dow Chemical Company and Shell Foundationto perhaps inspire and boost our collective swung in to support the project. And it wentFuture Quotient. into overdrive when we connected with John Furey and MindTime. The overlapping of ourAt a time of endemic leadership failure, it is collective work and theirs has spurred a degreetime to ask where can we experience—and of hybrid vigor that we hope to pursue furtherget involved in—better futures that are still once this short report is launched.in embryo? As science fiction author WilliamGibson put it: “The future is already here—it’s The first quarter century of the sustainabilityjust not evenly distributed.” The Arab Spring agenda was largely about predicting challengesmay seem an unlikely finalist in the first Future that demographic, social, economical, politicalQuotient 50, but one key task facing us is to and environmental drivers suggest will tax ourbreak the stranglehold, the tyranny of the past, ingenuity to the limit—in areas like energy,to open up the space in which a better future water, food and climate security. The secondcan grow. quarter century looks set to be about ways of effecting the system change needed to createTyranny and military rule rarely—if ever—create liveable conditions for a global population ofthe pre-conditions for genuinely sustainable something like 9 billion people by mid-century.development. Several Arab Spring rebellionshave broken ground so better futures might We began by noting that an old order istake root, but it is still far from clear whether or disassembling and a new one self-assembling.not the result will be a net boost in the Future Too much of the sustainability movement hasQuotient of these societies. set itself the target of mainstreaming in that old order, instead of heading out into thoseThe variable success of outside forces in edgy spaces where the future is mutating andsupporting the process has raised important evolving. If MindTime is designed to be thequestions over the longer-term role of NATO equivalent of a GPS navigational system forand national armed forces in securing peace. the human mind, the time has come to expandTo raise their FQ, such institutions, including such platforms to guide our thinking andintelligence services, need to be repurposed actions as we head into the new realms of riskand rebooted.91 and opportunity.And what about the pre-conditions needed Whatever it is that 81% of CEOs polled in theto promote higher-FQ strategies in business 2010 UN Global Compact / Accentureand finance? It is now fashionable to challenge survey 92 worldwide think they have embeddedthe relevance and impact of the corporate in the name of sustainability, they, theirsocial responsibility (CSR) agenda in western companies, their investors, their stakeholderscountries. But, while there are genuine and future generations would all be bettercriticisms to be addressed, there is no served if they ensured that their Futurequestion that the principles of responsibility, Quotient was significantly enhanced. True,transparency and accountability underpinning these days, genetic engineers can make anyCSR and ESG (environment, social, animal shine by transferring bioluminescencegovernance) investment strategies are still genes from bacteria or similar organisms.much needed in many parts of the world. Less controversially, the orientations, skills and talents necessary for success in seriously long-term innovation can be transferred—to individuals, teams, organization and, ultimately, entire economies. That’s why we are so interested in places like Singapore, which are successfully playing into the future.
Chapter 6The Quotient’s FutureWe plan to further develop the Future Quotientplatform. And, in the spirit of Alan Kay’sdictum, that “The best way to predict thefuture is to invent it,” we aim to help evolvenew constellations of talent and resources—including various types of Stars identified inChapter 3, alongside keen-to-learn but sofar less-than-stellar players—to tackle thecentury’s great economic, social, environmentaland governance challenges.To keep posted on developments:— Track progress at www.futurequotient.com— Join our Facebook, Google+ and Linked-in groups— Follow us on Twitter, @futurequo, #futurequoTo test your TimeStyle or that of your team:— Take the MindTime test here: www.mindtimemaps.com/fqTo discuss how to test and develop theFuture Quotient of your team or organization,please contact:— Charmian Love CEO, Volans email@example.com— Alastair Morton Head of Ethos, JWT London firstname.lastname@example.org— John Furey CEO, MindTime email@example.com
Appendix A 45Survey Process and ResultsThe survey was designed as a dipstick test of Interestingly, younger respondents are slightlycurrent thinking among thought-leaders and less inclined to this belief: a smaller majoritypractitioners in the linked fields of sustainability, (66%) of 25–34 year olds see the needsocial innovation and social enterprise, and becoming greater.corporate social responsibility. It was emailed tosome 4,000 members of the Volans, JWT and How effective is your own organization inNet Impact networks—and held open between thinking and acting with long-term horizons inJune 15, 2011 and July 20, 2011. The survey mind? (see Figure A4)was closed when we had 500 fully completedreplies. In addition to the online responses, a Over 80% respondents feel that their ownconsiderable number of people sent in emails organization is at least somewhat effective atwith further thoughts on the subject, including thinking for the long term. This question, moreinput from WPP’s worldwide network of than others, showed a significant difference byCorporate Responsibility champions. The vital the type of organization that the respondentstatistics can be found below. works for. On this data, people in social enterprise have the most confidence that their own organizations are effectively operating withVital statistics long-term horizons in mind, while their private sector counterparts have the least confidence.A total of 578 replies were received within the We followed up this question asking:time period, of which 501 were completedin full. These were used as our sample. The What do you see as the key contributorydemographic and sector make-up of the factors that have led your organization tosample is illustrated in Figures A1 and A2. behave in this way?We see a reasonable spread through theselenses. We had respondents from 50 countries, These open ended responses showedalthough a heavy weighting towards the US either that many of those who see their ownand UK, and a relative absence of countries organization as very effective, attribute thatsuch as China and various African countries effectiveness to strong vision and values, orthat will need to be addressed in any future else it is a product of the type of business thatrounds. they are in (such as sustainability consultancy or NGO). Those who see their organizations as ineffective often lay the blame at the door of theResults short-term nature of business, and sometimes simple fear of the unknown.We asked a series of closed questions tounderstand and quantify the prevailing beliefs In addition to the above questions, we alsoamong our expert respondents. The results asked a number of open questions, including:from these are summarized below. Which people, business, governments,When you think of our societies, economies investors and/or brands do you see thinkingand businesses, how important is the ability to and acting for the long term?think and act with long-term horizons in mind? Which 3 or 4 qualities enable long-term thinkingAt more than 9 in every 10 respondents, an and action?overwhelming majority see it as very importantto be able to think and act with long-term Which tools do you see as most helpful in thishorizons in mind. This strong response was area?demonstrated across all the demographicbreaks in the survey. The answers to these questions shaped our content and conclusions in terms of the 50Is the ability to think and act with long-term Stars selection criteria (Chapter 3) and the betahorizons in mind likely to become more or less version of our Playbook, for those wanting toimportant over time? (see Figure A3) boost their Future Quotient (Chapter 5).
Appendix A Survey Process and Results Figure A1 18–24 Respondents by age 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+ 28 27 22 1 15 8 % of Respondents0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Figure A2 Private sector Respondents by main type Public sector of organization Academic NGO / Charity Social enterprise Other 54 16 4 6 13 8 % of Respondents0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Figure A3 More important The growing importance of The same long-term horizons Less important 80 18 2 % of Respondents0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
47 Figure A4 Very effective Organisational effectiveness at long-term Somewhat effective thinking and action, by total and type of Not very effective organization of respondent Not effective at all 26 56 15 2 % of all respondents 38 45 15 2 % of respondents from social enterprises 35 50 % of respondents from NGOs / charities 15 23 60 15 2 % of respondents from private sector0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Appendix BReferences1 The Phoenix Economy: 50 Pioneers in the 15 The Future of Long-Term Investing, Business of Social Innovation, Volans for the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Skoll Foundation, 2009. Oliver Wyman, 2011. www.volans.com/lab/projects/phoenix http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_2 Limits to Growth study + 40, Brundtland futurelongterminvesting_report_2011.pdf Commission report + 25, UN Earth Summit 16 Andrew Haldane and Richard Davies, op.cit. (Rio) + 20. 17 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate3 Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Change, HM Treasury and the Cabinet Jørgen Randers and William W. Behrens Office, 2006. III, The Limits to Growth, Universe Books, www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/ 1972. sternreview_index.htm4 Our Common Future (also known as the 18 The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Brundtland Report), UN World Commission (a range of commissioned research and on Environment and Development, 1987. conference reports, National Intelligence5 www.un.org/geninfo/bp/enviro.html Council, 2009.6 Sustainability: The ‘Embracers’ Seize www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html Advantage, MIT Sloan Management Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Review, 2011. National Intelligence Council, 2008. http://sloanreview.mit.edu/feature/ www.dni.gov/nic/special_climate2030.html sustainability-advantage/ 19 Fons Trompenaars and Charles Hampden-7 A New Era of Sustainability: UN Global Turner, Riding the Waves of Culture: Compact—Accenture CEO Study, UN Understanding Cultural Diversity in Global Compact and Accenture, 2010. Business, Nicholas Brealey Publishing, https://microsite.accenture.com/ 1997. sustainability/research_and_insights/pages/ 20 G. Hofstede, G. Hofstede and M. Minkov, a-new-era-of-sustainability.aspx Cultures and Organizations: Software of the8 Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the Chasm: Mind, McGraw Hill, 2010. Marketing and Selling Technology Products 21 The Kay Review: terms of reference, to Mainstream Customers, Capstone, 1998. Department for Business Innovation & Skills,9 UN Global Compact and Accenture, op. cit. June 2011.10 CSO Backstory: How Chief Sustainability www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/business- Officers Reached the C-Suite, Weinreb law/docs/k/11-1015-kay-review-terms-of- Group, 2011. reference http://weinrebgroup.com/wp-content/ 22 Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific uploads/2011/09/CSO-back-story-by- Revolutions, The University of Chicago weinreb-group.pdf Press, 1962.11 The Transparent Economy: Six Tigers http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/paradigm_shift Stalking the Global Economy—and How to 23 Rachel Carson, Silent Spring, Houghton Tame Them, Volans for the Global Reporting Mifflin, 1962. Initiative (GRI), 2010. 24 Donella Meadows, et al, op. cit. www.globalreporting.org/NR/rdonlyres/ 25 UN World Commission on Environment and D97CA5F7-EB0C-43CD-A9BB- Development, op. cit. C9AF72B44F03/5851/explorations_ 26 John Elkington, “A new paradigm for thetransparenteconomy_final.pdf change”, Mckinsey & Company “What12 The Short Long, speech by Andrew Matters” blog, April 2010. Haldane and Richard Davies, 29th Société http://whatmatters.mckinseydigital.com/ Universitaire Européenne de Recherches social_entrepreneurs/a-new-paradigm-for- Financières Colloquium, New Paradigms in change Money and Finance?, Brussels, May 2011. 27 The Global Impact of an Aging World, www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/ Nielson, 2011. speeches/2011/speech495.pdf www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/reports-13 Nicholas Carr, The Shallows: downloads/2011/global-impact-aging- What the Internet is Doing to Our Brains, world.html W.W. Norton, New York, 201014 Andrew Haldane and Richard Davies, op.cit.
49 Risk Dialogue Magazine Special edition on 38 Tomorrow’s Stewardship: Why Stewardship Demographic Change, Swiss Re Centre for Matters, Tomorrow’s Company, 2011. Global Dialogue, May 2011. www.forceforgood.com/userfiles/why%20 http://media.swissre.com/documents/ stewardship%20matters%20L_final.pdf A11183_riskdialoguemagazine_ 39 Back to Basics: Global Venture Capital demographic_change1.pdf Insights and Trends Report 2010, Ernst &28 Seth Godin, “Short-term capitalism”, Young, 2010. blog post on own website, August 2011. www.ey.com/publication/vwluassets/ http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_ vc_insights-and-trends-report_2010/$file/ blog/2011/08/short-term-capitalism.html vc_insights-and-trends-report_2010.pdf29 Investing for the Future: Flood and Coastal 40 “Pension funds plan action on climate Risk Management in England, Environment change risks”, Financial Times, 16 February Agency, 2009. 2011. www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/ www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a1c6279e-392f-11e0- library/publications/108673.aspx 97ca-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1xizanzbq30 Such as the World Resources Institute’s 41 “Unpicking the financial system: The Next Practice Collaborative. pension fund trustee”, Guardian Sustainable www.wri.org/project/next-practice Business Blog, 4 July 2011.31 Paul Livingstone, “Worldwide R&D www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/ expenditures top $330 billion”, R&D pension-fund-trustee-motivations-financial- Magazine, May 2010. system www.rdmag.com/white-papers/2010/05/ 42 “German investors embrace sustainability, policy-and-industry-worldwide-R-D- but pension funds dragging heels”, expenditures-top-330-billion Investments & Pensions Europe website, 332 Vision 2050: Key Messages, World August 2011. Business Council for Sustainable www.ipe.com/news/german-investors- Development (WBCSD). embrace-sustainability-but-pension-funds- www.wbcsd.org/web/projects/bzrole/ dragging-heels_41573.php V2050keymessages.pdf 43 “Danish pensions invest in giant offshore33 American Chemistry Council’s website. wind farm”, Financial Times, 3 April 2011. www.americanchemistry.com/jobs/ www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7740d04c- economicstatistics/industry-profile/global- 5c9c-11e0-ab7c-00144feab49a. business-of-chemistry html#axzz1xstamlg634 “Global M&A: Shifting the global chemical 44 “Munich Re warns of soaring climate industry balance”, article by KPMG, June change costs”, Business Green, 4 January 2011. 2011. www.kpmg.com/global/en/ www.businessgreen.com/bg/ issuesandinsights/articlespublications/ news/1934684/munich-warns-soaring- reaction/pages/shifting-global-chemical- climate-change-costs industry.aspx 45 Swiss Re website.35 Boutkhil Guemide and Miloud Mehdani, http://cgd.swissre.com/global_dialogue/ “Globalization and Higher Education topics Development: A Critical Analysis”, 46 WWF website. Global-eJournal, November 2010. http://gftn.panda.org/resources/ http://global-ejournal.org/2010/11/29/ factsheets/?150322/GFTN-factsheet globalization-and-higher-education- 47 “The forest companies of the future”, development-a-critical-analysis/ Guardian Sustainable Business Blog, 2336 Family Firm Institute (FFI) website. August 2011. www.ffi.org/default.asp?id=398 www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/37 Kin in the Game: PwC Family Business blog/forest-companies-sustainable-future Survey 2010/11, PricewaterhouseCoopers, 48 Sustainable Urban Infrastructure: London 2010. Edition—a view to 2025. The Economist www.pwc.com/gx/en/pwc-family-business- Intelligence Unit for Siemens, 2008. survey/download.jhtml www.siemens.com/entry/cc/features/ sustainablecities/all/pdf/sustainable urbaninfrastructure-studylondon.pdf
Appendix BReferences49 Urban and Rural Areas 2007, UN 59 A simpler version of this question was Population Division, 2007. asked by young delegates at recent UN www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ Climate negotiations. wup2007/2007_urban_rural_chart.pdf 60 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate50 Cities and Climate Change: An Urgent Change, HM Treasury and the Cabinet Agenda, The International Bank for Office, 2006. Reconstruction and Development/The www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index. World Bank, 2010. htm http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ 61 “New formula values earth at INTUWM/Resources/340232-1205330 $5,000,000,000,000,000”, Treehugger 656272/CitiesandClimateChange.pdf website, 3 February 2011.51 The Future of Government: Lessons www.treehugger.com/files/2011/03/ Learned from around the World, World new-formula-values-earth-at-5-quadrillion- Economic Forum, 2011. dollars.php www.weforum.org/reports/future- 62 The Economics of Ecosystems and government Biodiversity: Mainstreaming the Economics52 US General Services Administration’s of Nature: A Synthesis of the Approach, Sustainable Design Program. Conclusions and Recommendations of www.gsa.gov/portal/content/104462 TEEB, The Economics of Ecosystems and53 “Japan pensioners volunteer to tackle Biodiversity, 2010. nuclear crisis”, BBC, 31 May 2011. www.teebweb.org/linkclick. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia- aspx?fileticket=byhdohL_tum%3d pacific-13598607 63 “PUMA Announces Results of54 See, for example, “Resource Limitations 2: Unprecedented Environmental Profit & Separating the Dangerous from the Merely Loss”, published on website, May 2011. Serious”, GMO Quarterly Letter, July 2011. http://safe.puma.com/us/en/2011/05/ www.gmo.com/websitecontent/jgletter_ puma-announces-results-of- resourcelimitations2_2Q11.pdf unprecedented-environmental-profit-loss “Danger: Children at Play”, GMO Quarterly 64 Long Finance Initiative’s website. Letter, August 2011. www.longfinance.net/programmes/the- www.gmo.com/websitecontent/jgletter_ eternal-coin.html pt2_dangerchildrenatplay_2Q11.pdf 65 Ruth Curran and Alice Chapple,55 Richard Thaler, “Save More Tomorrow: A Overcoming the Barriers to Long-term Simple Plan to Increase Retirement Saving”, Thinking in Financial Markets, Forum for Capital Ideas (The University of Chicago the Future and the Friends Provident Graduate School of Business) Vol.4 No.1, Foundation, 2011. Summer 2002. www.forumforthefuture.org/sites/default/ www.chicagobooth.edu/capideas/ files/images/forum/projects/overcoming- summer02/savemoretomorrow.html barriers-to-LT-thinking/long-term%2056 Central Provident Fund website. thinking%20-%20FPF%20REPORT%20 http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/members/top- -%20july%2011.pdf up_LO.htm 66 To keep up to date with this work:57 Roger Urwin, “Allocations to Sustainable www.forceforgood.com Investing”, Presentation to UN PRI 67 Sustainable Economy in 2040: A Roadmap Conference, Copenhagen May 2010. for Capital Markets, Forum for the Future for www.unpri.org/academic10/Copenhagen_ Aviva, 2011. v5.pdf www.forumforthefuture.org/project/vision-58 Among other approaches: astrapomancy sustainable-economy/overview (divination by lightning), carromancy 68 Deutsche Bank launched ‘db x-trackers’, its (shape of melted wax dropped into water), new Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) platform. cartomancy (cards), epatoscomancy www.etf.db.com/UK/pdf/EN/factsheet/ (entrails of animals), necromancy factsheetLU0411076002_2011_06.pdf (communion with the dead), ololygmancy 69 Frost & Sullivan’s Environment & Building (howling of dogs), pyromancy (fire), Technologies practice. scapulimancy (cracked shoulder-blades), www.frost.com/prod/servlet/svcg.pag/EV00 tasseomancy (tea leaves, coffee grounds), and zoomancy (observation of animals).
5170 Sizing the Climate Economy, HSBC Global 82 “Ray Anderson, sustainable business Research, 2010. pioneer, dies aged 77”, Guardian www.reuters.com/article/2010/09/06/us- Sustainable Business Blog, 9 August 2011. energy-carbon-idUSTRE6851LZ20100906 www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/71 Climate Change Scenarios – Implications for blog/ray-anderson-dies-interface-john- Strategic Asset Allocation, Mercer, 2011. elkington-tribute www.mercer.com/climatechange 83 Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein,72 “Cleantech Group launches i3 Platform, Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, a breakthrough research tool for clean Wealth and Happiness, Penguin, 2009. technology market intelligence”, press Also see blog: release, 8 June 2011. http://nudges.org www.cleantech.com/2011/06/08/ 84 Communications and Behaviour Change, cleantech-group-launches-i3-platform- Central Office of Information, 2009. a-breakthrough-research-tool-for-clean- http://coi.gov.uk/documents/commongood/ technology-market-intelligence commongood-behaviourchange.pdf73 www.valuescentre.com/products__ 85 Investing in Cultural Diversity and services/?sec=cultural_transformation_ Intercultural Dialogue, UNESCO, 2009. tools_%28ctt%29 http://unesdoc.unesco.org/74 Print and video introductions to the process images/0018/001847/184755e.pdf can be found here: 86 Demographic Change and the Environment, www.shell.com/home/content/aboutshell/ The Royal Commission on Environmental our_strategy/shell_global_scenarios/ Pollution, 2011. scenarios_explorers_guide http://archive.defra.gov.uk/corporate/about/75 As described on page 4 of The Phoenix partners/delivery/rcep-demography-report. Economy, Volans for the Skoll Foundation, pdf 2008. 87 Conversation between John Elkington and www.volans.com/news-views/news/artists- Roland Kupers, Amsterdam, February 2011 view 88 A New Growth Path for Europe: Generating76 21st Century Corporation: The Ceres Prosperity and Jobs in the Low-Carbon Roadmap to Sustainability, Ceres, 2010. Economy: Synthesis Report, European www.ceres.org/resources/reports/ceres- Climate Forum, 2011. roadmap-to-sustainability-2010 www.european-climate-forum.net/fileadmin/77 Paul Nunes and Timothy Breene, Jumping ecf-documents/press/a_new_growth_path_ the S-Curve: How to Beat the Growth for_europe__synthesis_report.pdf Cycle, Get on Top, and Stay There, Harvard 89 “Conservative MEPs rebel against UK Business Press, 2011. climate policy”, news release on WWF-UK’s78 Kevin Kelly, New Rules for the New website, 5 July 2011. Economy: 10 Radical Strategies for a www.wwf.org.uk/what_we_do/press_ Connected World, Penguin, 1999. centre/?unewsID=506679 Vision 2050: The New Agenda for Business, 90 “Green groups to sue US government over World Business Council for Sustainable atmospheric pollution”, BusinessGreen, 5 Development (WBCSD), 2010. May 2011. www.wbcsd.org/includes/gettarget. www.businessgreen.com/bg/ asp?type=d&id=mzczotg news/2068121/green-sue-government-80 “World Economic Forum launches Global atmospheric-pollution Shapers Community”, Press Release, WEF 91 John Elkington, “Can the Armed Forces website, 14 September 2011. Embrace Sustainability?”, Guardian www.weforum.org/news/world-economic- Sustainable Business, 17 August 2011, forum-launches-global-shapers-community www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/81 See, for example, the work of Fred Polak, sustainability-with-john-elkington/armed- particularly his 2-volume book, The Images forces-military-sustainability of the Future, Elsevier, 1973. 92 UN Global Compact and Accenture, op. cit.
Appendix E Appendix FOther Publications AddendumVolans Blogs Google / Virgin / 100 Year Plan pages 19 and 31Volans News & Viewswww.volans.com/news-views This example is not a ‘live’ one; in fact it was an April Fool’s hoax released by the twoInside Sustainability, Guardian companies in 2008. Nevertheless, we feel thatSustainable Business website the ethos behind both organisations, Googlewww.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/ and Virgin, as seen through some of their othersustainability-with-john-elkington ground-breaking initiatives, is still note-worthy in that they audaciously challenge the statusCSRWire quo (think Virgin Galactic1 which is makingwww.csrwire.com/blog/posts?author_id=20 space travel a reality, and Google’s $30m Lunar X-Prize 2 which will go to the first privately funded team to land operationalVolans Reports robots on the Moon).The Phoenix Economy: 50 Pioneers in the For more on this particular issue, read JohnBusiness of Social Innovation, Volans for the Elkington’s article, “Spoofed! By Google andSkoll Foundation, 2009 Virgin’s plan to build a city on Mars”, publishedwww.volans.com/lab/projects/phoenix on 2 November 2011 in the Guardian Sustainable Business blog.3 We have alsoThe Transparent Economy: Six Tigers Stalking since launched a new Twitter campaign to hearthe Global Recovery—and How to Tame Them, peoples’ views on whether 100-year plans areVolans for the Global Reporting Initiative, 2010 feasible (please tweet your answer towww.volans.com/lab/projects/the-transparent- @futurequo #100years).economy 1 www.virgingalactic.comThe Biosphere Economy: Natural limits 2 www.googlelunarxprize.orgcan spur creativity, innovation and growth, 3 www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/Volans for the Tellus Mater Foundation, 2010 sustainability-with-john-elkington/www.volans.com/lab/projects/biosphere- john-elkington-long-term-planning-economy/ business-strategyVolans BooksJohn Elkington and Pamela Hartigan,The Power of Unreasonable People: HowSocial Entrepreneurs Create Markets ThatChange the World, Harvard Business SchoolPress, 2008John Elkington, The Zeronauts: Breakingthe Sustainability Barrier, Earthscan/Taylor &Francis, [Spring 2012]JWT PublicationsAlastair Morton with Claire Jackson,Branded Flourishing, Admap, 2010Social Good: A Trend Report,JWT Ethos, 2011www.jwtintelligence.com
Volans JWTwww.volans.com www.jwt.comVOL ANSFounded in 2008, Volans aims ‘to help the JWT is the world’s best-known marketingfuture take flight’. We are a future-focused communications brand and the world’s oldestthink-tank and consultancy business advertising agency, bringing pioneering spiritthat works at the intersection of the to our clients ever since the mid 1860s.entrepreneurship, intrapreneurship, innovation With more than 200 offices in over 90and sustainability movements. We apply our countries employing nearly 10,000 marketingthought leadership and our global networks professionals, we are a truly global network.across these three sectors to help innovators, JWT Ethos is our specialist offering designedinvestors, private sector and government to help our clients’ brands prosper by makingleaders develop solutions to the challenges better forward thinking decisions over socialfacing our world. The Future Quotient is our and environmental issues. With The Futurefifth publication (page 52). We are delighted Quotient, we urge business and brands toto have JWT as a partner because of their take up the responsibility and challenge thathistory, their new Ethos offering—and this presents.because behavioral and culture change arenow crucial.Sponsors Partner