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The Future Of Clean Power Generation
 

The Future Of Clean Power Generation

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V. Khosla

V. Khosla

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    The Future Of Clean Power Generation The Future Of Clean Power Generation Presentation Transcript

    • Breaking the Climate Deadlock the future of clean power generation Vinod Khosla Khosla Ventures Nov 2008 1
    • Where Does Electricity Come From?
    • “China and India together account for 79 percent of the projected increase in world coal consumption from 2005 to 2030” EIA 3
    • “At the end of 2005, China had an estimated 299 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity in operation. To meet the demand for electricity that is expected to accompany its rapid economic growth, an additional 735 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity (net of retirements) is projected to be brought on line in China by 2030 ” EIA 4
    • Key Issues › Electricity : ~40% of man-made CO2 › Coal: largest culprit › Action needed for 80% reduction by 2050 5
    • What Can Solar Do? › Solar: near zero-emissions power! › 1% of world’s desert: meet all power demand › US: 100 x 100 mile area in Nevada › India: less than 1% of land area › Europe: Less than 3% of Morocco’s land 6
    • Scalability: solar Wind waves SOLAR Gas OTEC Oil BIO HYDRO World energy Uranium use COAL R. Perez et al. 7 Source: Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona
    • Global Solar Irradiance Map 8 Source: Ecole des Mines de Paris / Armines 2006
    • What Must Solar Achieve to Succeed? › Cost less than fossil fuels › ($0.10-0.12KWh in 2007 dollars) › “Dispatchable” generation › Storage key for intermittent sources › Reliability and uptime equiv. to fossil fuels 9
    • carbon: irrational policies Germany: 57% world PV US: 7% world PV 10 Source: Creating a U.S. Market for Solar Energy, by Rhone Resch, President of the Solar Energy Industries Association.
    • carbon: irrational policies › Solar PV installations in the Bay Area ›Moscone Center vs. San Jose; 20% improvement in isolation! › Cost of Moscone center PV: $6,222 per KW › At $0.12KWh, 2.2% return on investment (below inflation!) › Warner-Lieberman bill › giving credits away to today’s inefficient technologies! › Zero-Emission Buildings › UK estimate (40% higher home building cost) 11
    • carbon: California solar roofs program › California Million Solar Roofs Program › $3.3 billion › Goal: 3,000 MW by 2017 solutions should make a › California generation capacity (2003) ≈ 61 GW material impact! › Best case-scenario – less than 5% of CA capacity! 12
    • Solar Power: PV › Advantage: distributed power-generation › Ideal where peak demand = max solar radiation › Scaling: no storage, no base-load power › SEIA: Grid parity by 2015 (US) 13
    • Solar Power: Solar Thermal › Advantage: Base-load power › thermal storage is key › Low technical risk, low adoption risk › California operations since the 1980’s › Primary risk: Cost per KW of installed capacity 14
    • Solar Thermal Power: 1914
    • Illustrative Solar Thermal Plant 16
    • Storage For Time-shifting To Storage Plant Output From Direct Solar Storage From Direct Solar Storage Direct Solar 6 AM 9 AM 12 PM 3 PM 6 PM 9 PM 17 Time of Day
    • solar thermal: day / night power 18 Source: John O’Donnell
    • thermal storage is cheap Heat/Air/Hydro Electricity › Flywheel ≈ $4000/kWh › Molten Salt ≈ $45/kWh › VRB batt ≈ $350-600/kWh › Concrete ≈ $25-45KWh increased cost of power lower cost of power › CAES, Pumped Hydro 19 Source: NREL for heat storage (2007), Dr. Doerte Laing, DLR (2008), VRB battery costs from company and Appalachian Power, CAISO estimate for Flywheel costs (Beacon Power)
    • thermal energy storage › Commercial Available Today › Steam Accumulator › molten salt storage based on nitrate salts › In Testing › Solid medium sensible heat storage - concrete storage › Latent heat - PCM storage › Combined storage system (concrete/PCM) for water/steam fluid › Improved molten salt storage concepts › Solid media storage for Solar Tower with Air Receiver 20 Source: Doerte Laing , German Aerospace center
    • Policy Needs: Short-Term › Expansion of technology-neutral RPS’ › More economic than feed-in tariffs › Stabilization incentive standards › Low-cost capital availability › Cost of capital is key determinant of cost 21
    • Policy Needs: Med-Term › Carbon pricing framework › Investment in transmission infrastructure › Focus on regional power transmissions (i.e - DESERTEC) 22
    • Scalability:Land is not (remotely) a constraint 3000 km world electricity demand (18,000 TWh/y) can be produced from 300 x 300 km² More than 90% of world pp could be served =0.23% of all deserts by clean power from deserts (DESERTEC.org) ! distributed over “10 000” sites 23 Source: Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona
    • area requirements to power the USA (150 km)2 of Nevada covered with 15% efficient solar cells could provide the USA with electricity ½ as much land with 30% efficient turbines 24 Source: J.A. Turner, Science 285 1999, p. 687.
    • the right : HVDC encouraging innovation < < < < Hydro Geothermal Wind Solar Biomass 25 25
    • DESERTEC concept for EU-MENA 10,000 GW from solar! 26 Source: Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2
    • price of power – 2011 and 2013 Carbon Tax 200 O&M Charge (Fixed & Variable) Solar Peaking Pricing Energy Charge Capital Charge 150 $/MWh 100 Solar Baseload Pricing 50 0 Gas Peaker Nuclear IGCC CCGT Coal Ausra CLFR Ausra 60% 24% (w/storage) 27 Source: Ausra. All prices are estimated as of April 2008, in 2008$; Carbon tax of $30 is assumed. Ausra CLFR 24% price is as of 2011, and 60% w/storage is in 2013
    • PuG power requirements Coal Coal Natural Solar Solar Engineered (PC) IGCC+CCS Nuclear Gas Wind (PV) (CSP) Geothermal Scalability High CO2 Med** High Low* Low* High High Storage High Low High High Low* Low* High High Reliability Price Med Med Low-Med Low High High High High Stability Carbon Price Low Low High Med High High High High CSP and EGS meet Utility Needs! Benefits Dispatchable Yes Yes Yes** Yes No No Yes Yes Power Adoption Ease High Low High** High Low Med High High Technology Low High Med Low High High Med High Risk Low Low *Wind and Solar PV are severely disadvantaged due to the lack of storage – power is available when generated, not when needed, stopping them from serving as base-load power 28 generators ** Nuclear energy is “always on”, generating electricity even when it is not needed (and when prices are negative, such as the middle of night). High decommissioning costs and a lack of effective waste-disposal are both significant factors in limiting its scalability
    • key criteria › Trajectory: “What is” or “What Can Be” › Cost Trajectory › Scalability Trajectory › Carbon Trajectory › Adoption Risk › Capital Formation › Optionality › Carbon Reduction Capacity 29
    • Cost trajectory: Undesirable (hydrogen fuel cell?) Fossil + Carbon Cost Cost Fossil Fuel Cost Subsidy/Support Needed Ideal (Cellulosic biofuels?) Time 30
    • Carbon trajectory: Carbon Emissions Trajectory Undesirable (natural gas?) Fossil Fuels Minimum Target Ideal (Cellulosic biofuels?) Time 31
    • cost: driving down the cost curve 32 Source: “The Carbon Productivity Challenge”, McKinsey – Original from UC Berkely Energy Resource Group, Navigant Consulting
    • cost: not all technology curves are the same Cost (Normalized) Cheapest now Wind not mean does Coal cheapest later! Trajectory Matters! Solar PV 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 33
    • declining technology cost… Generations of Solar Photovoltaics… Crystalline Silicon Amorphous Silicon Thin-Film Thin-Film Multi-Junction 34
    • but tech cost decline isn’t enough… Total Cost Cost (Normalized) Total cost decline is based on relative proportion of cost “types”… Construction Cost Inputs (Feedstock/Land) Technology Cost 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 35
    • adoption risk - $2,500 nano … ICE or hydrogen? …the Chindia test on relevance 36
    • capital formation › Short Innovation Cycles (3-5 years) › Not “fusion”; Not “nuclear”; Not CCS › Mitigate technical AND/OR market risk quickly and cheaply Private money will flow to › (technical) - solar thermal › (market) – corn ethanol ventures that return investment in › Investor returns-5 year cycles! 3 at each stage of technology development › Unsubsidized market competition: 7-10 years 37
    • capital formation: pathway for solar thermal › 2008: Proof of concept mitigating technology risk › Costs at $0.16 per KWh › 2010: Deployment as peaking power (vs. natural gas) › Costs at $0.12-$0.16 KWh › Less with low cost loans › Ongoing tech optimization & storage › 2013-15: Deployment as base-load (vs. coal) › Costs at $0.10-$0.12Kwh including storage › Adoption risk: PUG power, cost 38 Note: All costs in 2006 $
    • optionality: hybrids or biofuels? 100% 0% % of power from electric sources % of power from liquid fuel 0% 100% Tata Nano vs. Honda Hybrid (India) Time 39 2010: >100X the volume?
    • carbon reduction capacity is key Growth Offers the Greatest Carbon Reduction Opportunity! 1.9 1.7 1.5 Index (2008 = 1) 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 Growth stock 0.5 Replacement of old stock Improvement of current stock 0.3 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 40
    • carbon reduction capacity: 10X increase in carbon productivity! 10 9 Carbon Productivity = GDP / Emissions 8 Carbon Productivity Growth Required = 5.6%/yr 7 Less reduction now, but World GDP Growth greater capacity to 6 Index (2008 = 1) respond in the future? 5 4 World GDP Growth = 3.1%/yr 3 2 Emission decrease to 20GT CO2e by 2050 = -2.4%/yr 1 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 41 Source: “The Carbon Productivity Challenge”, McKinsey – Original GDP projection from Global Insight through 2037
    • goal: cost, carbon & scaling trajectory, capital formation, low adoption risk, & optionality 42
    • …or get to work vk@khoslaventures.com khoslaventures.com/resources.html 43