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  • 1. Food Security & Regional Trade:Linkages & Implications for Kenya’s GLORIA OTIENO
  • 2. Structure of Presentation Background Methodology Regional Trade and Implications on Food Security In Kenya  Poverty and Food Security in Kenya  Implications of regional trade and livelihoods and food security Policy, Institutional Frameworks and Interplay of Stakeholders Conclusions and Recommendations
  • 3. Background Food Security situation in Kenya has worsened in recent years due to -recent droughts, rising food prices & rising levels of poverty Kenya thus relies on food imports and Trade is important for stabilizing the national food supplies and food prices. Food imports largely consist of Maize which is a staple food Regional trade agreements –COMESA &EAC important for imports & Export incomes
  • 4. Methodology Secondary data used for trend analysis Primary data –  FGDs with farmer organizations. › Key Informants – Ministries and Govt Institutions, NGOs › Observations at 4border points along Kenya Tanzania and Kenya Uganda borders Review of Policies, Legal and Regulatory Frameworks
  • 5. Poverty and Food Security: The Kenyan Situation Poverty –overall 46.1 percent; Rural poverty stands at 49.1%. Only 16 percent of Kenya is Arable land Rural poverty mostly associated with agriculture and land › Highest in ASALs in Eastern and North-eastern – Desert › High potential areas e.g Central are over exploited due to population pressure Poverty is highly correlated with food security i.e high poverty areas are the most food insecure – ASALs 70 percent Kenyans -net buyers of food Staple food is Maize – key element of food security dependence on rain fed agriculture -output from maize fell from a surplus of 9 million bags in 2006 to a deficit of 35 million bags in 2009 Food security worsened since 1990s and by 2003, food imports were 14 percent of total value of imports and 25 percent of agricultural imports today these values have almost doubled
  • 6. Food Security Situation contd’ only 47 percent of the entire Kenyan population is food secure. Hence Kenya’s dependency on food Aid has continued to rise over the years Trends in food aid In 2010/11 WFP is feeding of 4.2 million people in 25 districts and over a million children through the school feeding program Food imports especially cereals have also increased – deficits in 2009 was 95,000MT met through imports In 2010 – bumper harvest led to a 40 tonne Surplus Currently (2011) drought has caused a deficit in production and about 27 districts in need of food aid
  • 7. Regional Trade and Food Security in Kenya Mainly consisting of Trade between Kenya –EAC and Kenya COMESA Trends Trends –Kenya COMESA Trade Exports mainly –tea, (manufactured goods –cement, cigarettes), Sugar Kenya-EAC Exports Imports Kenya EAC- Imports Regional food imports come from the region Uganda and Tanzania 108,155 MT and 56,900 respectively in 2009, Malawi -110,000MT in 2008 Main food imports from the region include – Maize, beans, Millet and onions and potatoes
  • 8. Informal Trade and Food Security From border points observations-  Goods entering Kenya included, maize, beans, bananas, fresh fruits and vegetables-tomatoes, onions avocados, pineapples and Textiles  Goods leaving Kenya included counterfeit batteries, cigarettes, detergents, beverages, sugar, mattresses and other household goods Reasons for illicit trade: › delays at the border which in some cases along Busia-Malaba border was up to 7 hours › High Administrative costs -numerous requirements such as trade licenses – business and road license, phyto-sanitary certificates › Corruption and bribery at police checkpoints Magnitude is hard to measure Positive aspects# › Improve access to food# › drives down prices of foods# - a plus for consumers but not producers › Provides incomes and improves livelihoods for traders#
  • 9. Implications of Regional Trade on Food Security contd’1. Increased imports – cheap food imports acting as a dis-incentive for producers ( especially innneficient producers)2. On one hand –loss of incomes for producers and farm labourers but on the other hand creation of employment and incomes for traders3. Improved availability of food especially in areas near border points
  • 10. Policy Issues Conspicuously absent redistributive policies – from surplus to deficit regions within the country Food security policy has laid much emphasis on Maize sector as a staple ignoring other food crops which would raise food security –cassava, plantains etc Food Security policy not coherent with trade policy  While trade policy is more export oriented- emphasis has been placed on high value non traditional food crops –Horticulture hence a shift away from staple food production Institutions mainly bent towards emergency response –donors and NGOs distributing food aid
  • 11. Agricultural Policies and recent Developments in the Sector Strategy for Revitalization of Agriculture 2003-  wide spread stakeholder consultations  sector based approach- implementation by different ministries  National food security policy  Parliamentary committees – SUPA, COTEPA  Advocacy groups –Civil society – SUCAM  Programs to help farmers –  fertilizer subsidy program  National Accelerated Agricultural Input Access Project Kilimo plus- voucher system for seeds and fertilizer Kilimo biashara – Low costcost credit to purchase inputs (Ksh 605 million for 121,000 farmers  Njaa Marufuku - Ksh 327.6 million to assist 1,866 groups, 40 schools and 35organizations to undertake food security projects.
  • 12. Agricultural Policies and recent Developments in the Sector contd’ Agricultural Sector Development Strategy – 2010- 2020 Part of Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP) launched in Kenya in 2005.  Agriculture positioned as the key driver for delivering 10 percent annual economic growth rate envisaged in the vision 2030  Recognises food security as an integral part of agriculture  Emphasis also placed on other enabling factors such as infrastructure, NTBs etc  Implementation through ASCU- Agricultural Sector coordination unit
  • 13. Conclusions Factors that affect food security include both global and national level  Global level- trade practices – subsidies, NTBs, rising oil prices, climate change and food aid  National Level- Liberalization and SAPs, poor policy and planning, poor infrastructure, imports that inherently affect production as well as incomes and employment, and poverty  Policy failures – Redistributive mechanisms, strategic grain reserves, poor infrastructure and institutions that lay emphasis on drought and emergency food distribution rather than production and grain marketing  Private sector participation in grain marketing is low and government management of grain distribution from surplus to deficit areas is dismal
  • 14. Policy Recommendations1. Need for an equitable global environment for trade; removal of subsidies and climate change mitigation.2. Taking care of regional NTBs to enhance regional trade3. Most of what needs to be done is mainly at National level 1. Need for a clear and comprehensive trade policy that takes into account food security issues 2. Addressing infrastructural bottlenecks and redistributive mechanisms from surplus to deficit areas. 3. Need for a comprehensive institutional framework to enable private sector participation in the process as well as consolidation of information for future referencing.
  • 15. Policy recommendations continued Improving productivity through  Irrigation programmes especially in ASALs  Fertilizer and seeds subsidies to farmers  Post-harvest and storage facilities to farmers  Buy farmer’s produce at good prices during bumper harvests Better planning and management of the NCPB for the marketing and storage of strategic grain reserves Establishment of regional information and regional food security forum to ensure better redistribution from surlus to deficit regions within EAC and COMESA eg through EAGC Involvement of donors – not only for emergency needs but also irrigation projects etc
  • 16. Trends in food aid
  • 17. Trends –Kenya COMESA Trade Kenya-COMESA Trade (1997-2009) 1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 Value (US$ 000) 1000000 Imports 800000 Exports 600000 400000 200000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • 18. Kenya-EAC Exports Trends in Exports - Kenya to EAC (1996-2009) 700,000 600,000 500,000Value US$ Millions 400,000 Uganda Tanzania 300,000 Rwanda Burundi 200,000 100,000 - 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • 19. Kenya EAC- Imports Trends in Imports from EAC-Kenya (1996-2009) 120,000 100,000 80,000Value US$ Millions Uganda 60,000 Tanzania Rwanda Burundi 40,000 20,000 - 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009