Informal stakeholder meeting_uganda-mwambutsya_ndebesa

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Informal stakeholder meeting_uganda-mwambutsya_ndebesa

  1. 1. LINKAGES BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS ON ONE HAND AND TRADE IN AGRICULTURE AND TRADE FACILITATION ON THE OTHER RECCOMENDATIONS FOR POVERTY REDUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT FOR A LANDLOCKED – COUNTRY LIKE UGANDA By Mwambutsya Ndebesa E-mail: [email_address]
  2. 2. INTRODUCTION <ul><li>Economic, Trade and Social Profile of Agriculture Sector </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trends in the production, exports and imports of major crops/products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trends in agricultural productivity with a focus on developments in the productivity of main crops in the last ten years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trends in formal and informal employment in agriculture, rural poverty, nutrition and food security status . </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Landlockedness and trade facilitation issues </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identification of main physical, infrastructural and institutional constraints </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Policy framework with a focus on: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Key features of existing development, trade, agriculture and trade facilitation policies </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY <ul><li>To collect information on and analyse the recent trends in agricultural productivity, agriculture trade, livelihoods, and trade facilitation measures; </li></ul><ul><li>To examine the complex relationships involved using a holistic framework; </li></ul><ul><li>To generate new insights and knowledge that has practical implications; and </li></ul><ul><li>To contribute to finding solutions including through coherent policy framework that will assist Uganda in meeting the objectives of NDP and NTP 2007. </li></ul>
  4. 4. KEY SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES TO BE COVERED <ul><li>Role of and constraints faced by the agricultural sector with focus on rural livelihoods, productivity, and trade; </li></ul><ul><li>Trade facilitation needs and measures with focus on those directly related to landlockedness; </li></ul><ul><li>Linkages and relationships among various issues with focus on identifying areas for synergetic action; </li></ul><ul><li>Policy frameworks related to agriculture, trade, and trade facilitation; and </li></ul><ul><li>Development of coherent thinking and practice in the areas under study to advance poverty reduction and development objectives. </li></ul>
  5. 5. GDP GROWTH RATE TRENDS <ul><li>From the late 1980s, Uganda registered high growth rates until the 2000s when the growth rates slowed down as shown in the Figures </li></ul><ul><li>Economic growth raised from Us $ 2 billion in 1980s to Us $12 billion in 2007 </li></ul>
  6. 6. Contribution of Agriculture to GDP <ul><li>The share of Agric. to GDP in Uganda has been declining since 2001 </li></ul><ul><li>Between 2000/09, the share fell while that of Industry and services rose </li></ul><ul><li>The declining share of agriculture in GDP vis-vis other sectors represents positive transformation of a country’s economy </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>Agricultural productivity has been on the decline for much of the last decade as shown in the Figures below </li></ul><ul><li>Between 1999 and 2006, the major export crops have experienced double digit drops </li></ul><ul><li>The major cause of low productivity levels is theorized to be lack of improved inputs application </li></ul><ul><li>Uganda’s application of improved inputs is one of the lowest in the region </li></ul>PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MAIN AGRICULTURAL CROPS
  8. 8. PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MAIN AGRICULTURAL CROPS PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MAIN AGRICULTURAL CROPS
  9. 9. Present Farm yields against attainable potential for selected crops <ul><li>According to the Agricultural Sector Investment Plan 2009/10 -2013/14; a comparative analysis of farm level yields and research station yields reveals a huge gap. </li></ul><ul><li>As table below illustrates, productivity at the farm is far much lower than the attainable potential </li></ul>
  10. 10. FARM YIELDS VS POTENTIAL
  11. 11. AGRICULTURAL TRADE PROFILE(EXPORTS)
  12. 12. TRADE DEFICIT <ul><li>Accelerated growth in imports has resulted in a widening trade deficit standing at 2.5 billion in 2008 </li></ul>
  13. 13. LINKING AGRICULTURE TO LIVELIHOODS <ul><li>The key variables for livelihood indicators include employment, poverty reduction, and nutrition and food security among others. </li></ul><ul><li>Preliminary findings indicate that there is an interesting correlation between agricultural productivity and livelihood indicators </li></ul><ul><li>For example there is an imbalance in the structure of the economy and labour force employment </li></ul><ul><li>The proportion of persons engaged in the agricultural sector has increased from 65.5 percent in 2002/03 to 73.9 percent in 2005/06, the share of agriculture has been declining </li></ul><ul><li>Uganda’s total labor force in 2007 stood at about 12.5 million people. With a population of more than 30 million people, this implies that more than 44 percent in 1997/98 and to 31 percent in 2005/06. The 31 percent under poverty line translates into about ten million Ugandans below the poverty line. </li></ul>
  14. 14. LABOUR FORCE
  15. 15. GENDER AND EMPLOYMENT Data Source: UNCTAD Statistical Handbook (2008)
  16. 16. POVERTY HEADCOUNT TRENDS UBOS Satistica Abstract 2009 & Mellenium Development Goals Country Progres Report 2007 – UNDP
  17. 17. TREND OF RURAL AND URBAN INEQUALITY Data Source: UBOS Statistical Abstract 2009
  18. 18. TRENDS IN FOOD INSECURITY (1992-2006) Source of Data: Millennium Development Goals Country Progress Report 2007 – UNDP
  19. 19. LANDLOCKEDNESS CONSTRAINTS AND THEIR EFFECT ON AGRICULTURAL TRADE <ul><li>Uganda is critically dependent on its neighbors—Kenya and Tanzania for transportation of her goods and services. </li></ul><ul><li>The main routes used for Uganda’s external trade are: -the Northern Corridor </li></ul><ul><li>The Central Corridor that comprises similar services, other than pipeline, pertaining to the Port of Dar Es Salaam </li></ul><ul><li>An air corridor out of Entebbe International Airport </li></ul><ul><li>Road services between Uganda and countries further inland </li></ul>
  20. 20. MAIN REGIONAL ROAD AND RAIL ROUTES Source: World bank Trade Integrated Study 2007. The map is not drawn to scale.
  21. 21. THE MAIN CONSTRAINTS UNDER TRANSPORT <ul><li>The share of rail transport to total trafic is only 27 percent </li></ul><ul><li>Operations on railway transport are inefficient and poor </li></ul><ul><li>Internal transport links are mainly by road where more than 30,000 kms of rural community access roads are unpaved </li></ul><ul><li>Most ferries have fallen into disuse </li></ul><ul><li>Road service transport is expensive and exceeds rail rates by 38 to 56 </li></ul><ul><li>Other trade facilitation constraints include customs operations, clearing and forwarding, insurance, post services and telecommunications. </li></ul>
  22. 22. OTHER TRADE FACILITATION CONSTRAINTS <ul><li>Congestion at Mombasa Port which handles 95% of Uganda’s external trade traffic </li></ul><ul><li>High cost of road transport due to high tarrifs on freight vehicles raised from 7 – 25% with the introduction of the Common External Tariff </li></ul><ul><li>Physical inspection of exports involving duty drawbacks and VAT refunds </li></ul>
  23. 23. SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS <ul><li>There is a mismatch between economic growth, indicators and livelihood indicators. </li></ul><ul><li>There is an imbalance in the structures of the economy and labour force employment. </li></ul><ul><li>The proportion of persons engaging in the agricultural sector has increased from 65.5 percent in 2002/2003 to 73.9 percent in 2005/2006. </li></ul><ul><li>On the other hand the share of agriculture to the total GDP has been increasing. </li></ul><ul><li>Majority of the population is employed in the agricultural sector whose share to GDP is declining. </li></ul><ul><li>The economy of Uganda has been growing but inequality gap has equally been increasing. </li></ul>
  24. 24. Cont’d… <ul><li>The population growth rate has also been high at an average of 3.2 percent per annum. </li></ul><ul><li>Women who feed the families are the least found in formal employment </li></ul><ul><li>Food insecurity in rural areas is positively correlated with falling rural earnings </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity of main agricultural crops has been declining for the last one decade. </li></ul><ul><li>In general terms export earnings have been increasing and poverty reduction has been visible in rural areas producing cash crops. </li></ul><ul><li>Merchandise imports have been rising. Between 2001 and 2008 imports rose nearly 400 percent. This has resulted into a widening trade deficit. </li></ul><ul><li>The prices for the basic consumer products for the rural poor have been increasing. </li></ul>
  25. 25. RECOMMENDATIONS <ul><li>Need for more facilitative Government interventions to increase agricultural productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Need to control population growth to match economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>Need to invest in rural areas where the majority of the population is employed </li></ul><ul><li>Need to incorporate issues of reducing income inequality in development planning </li></ul><ul><li>The government needs to integrate income and non-income factors in development planning e.g food security, nutrition and employment. </li></ul>

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