World Wide Terrorism 2005

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World-Wide Terrorism Review, 2005

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World Wide Terrorism 2005

  1. 1. Company World-Wide Terrorism World-Wide LOGO Predictive Analysis: 01 May, 2005 By C. L. Staten, CEO and Sr. Analyst Emergency Response & Research Institute © Emergency Response & Research Institute, Inc. (ERRI). 2005 All rights reserved. This presentation contains information that may be Military/Law Enforcement Sensitive. NOT for public presentation or other distribution without expressed permission of ERRI.
  2. 2. Presentation Agenda I. Changing Strategies I. Changing Strategies II. Nature of the threat II. Nature of the threat III. Anticipated/Significant Events III. Anticipated/Significant Events IV. VBIEDS/Homicide-Suicide IV. VBIEDS/Homicide-Suicide V. WMD and Other Considerations V. WMD and Other Considerations
  3. 3. Primary Overall Threat… Threat… • Transnational terrorism continues to be one of the primary threats to the U.S. and her allies… A. Not necessarily Central Al-Qaeda B. Dispersed, regional, and local groups of like-minded terrorists C. Smaller groups share ideology, motivation and may share resources/ funding (further decentralization likely)
  4. 4. What is Changing in the GWOT? • “The international terrorism landscape has changed dramatically during the past three years. First, Al Qaeda has transformed from a group into a movement; second, the epicenter of international terrorism has shifted from Afghanistan to Iraq; third, terrorist target selection include the Allies and the friends of the United States. • The most profound of these three developments is the morphing of Al Qaeda from a group into a movement. With the dispersal of Al Qaeda members and associate members from Afghanistan to lawless zones in the global south, three dozen Asian, African, Middle Eastern and other local jihad groups are increasingly behaving like Al Qaeda. About 20,000 members of these groups trained, armed, financed and indoctrinated by Al Qaeda in Afghanistan from the Soviet withdrawal in February 1989 until US intervention in October 2001 are beginning to share Al Qaeda's vision and mission of a global jihad.” -- Dr. Rohan Gunaratna, author of Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror and Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore, April 22, 2005
  5. 5. Evidence of Increasing Threat… • quot;Country Reports on Terrorism (2004).quot; • Known as quot;Patterns of Global Terrorismquot; in previous years, the State Department report is now dubbed quot;Country Reports on Terrorism.quot; • The new report said quot;international terrorism continued to pose a significant threat to the United States and its partners in 2004.quot; • quot;The primary terrorist threat to the United States in 2004 continued to be al Qaeda, which remained intent on attacking the U.S. homeland as well as U.S. interests abroad,quot; the report said. • Source: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/45313.pdf
  6. 6. Looking to the Future (Tactics)… (Tactics)… • Insurgents in Iraq have staged increasingly sophisticated attacks in recent weeks, according to US military assessments, moving beyond roadside bombings and suicide attacks to mount large- scale assaults against US and Iraqi forces and civilians. These attacks have included both suicide/ homicide bombers and terrorists Looking for the war… using grenades, mortars, and automatic weapons. The greater coordination and larger scope of the attacks has prompted some U.S. commanders to reexamine their belief that the insurgency in Iraq was on the wane, even though the number of daily attacks has fallen since the landmark Jan. 30 election, according to leading US military officials.
  7. 7. Coming High Visibility (Afghan) Attacks? • Al Qaeda planning high visibility attacks Says US Commander: Pakistan/Taliban: The Commander of the US led coalition forces in the Afghanistan Lt. General David Barno has said that remnants of the Taliban militia and Al Qaeda terrorists still pose a threat in Afghanistan despite the fact that popular support for them had decreased manifold, and that they were reportedly planning to stage some high visibility attacks in the next six to nine months, according to the Dawn newspaper. quot;There are continuing threats out there. Terrorists are not going to go away and the only way to combat them is to put pressure on them and disrupt their operations. We will continue to see attacks in Afghanistan. The war is not over,quot; the paper quoted him as saying.
  8. 8. Target? – Washington, DC • If ERRI Image via Terra-Server analysts can access imagery like White House this… So can the “bad guys.” They can be Washington Memorial expected to Lincoln Memorial use our technology against us. That is the essence of asymmetric warfare. Image courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey
  9. 9. Some Other Potential CONUS Targets? • New York City, NY • Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade Counties, Florida • Chicago, IL • Los Vegas, NV • Los Angeles, CA -- Nuclear reactor sites, chemical factories, and/or military bases
  10. 10. Two Emerging (and Troubling) Insurgencies The Asian terrorism problem continues to grow in both size and intensity… • As previously indicated by ERRI analysts, in reports from 2004, we expect continually escalating insurgencies in both Bangladesh and Thailand.
  11. 11. The Attack on School #1 Beslan, North Ossetia, Russia • With a new brutality, some would say never seen before, a hostage incident in a Russian school on September 1st claimed the lives of 340, and wounded another 700. The carnage was caused by improvised explosive devices, grenades, and AK-47 assault rifles.
  12. 12. Russian Terror Events • In fact, Russia has suffered badly at the hands of terrorists during the last couple weeks of August and the first week of September, 2004. All allegedly at the hands of rebels from Chechnya and probably allied “Afghan Arabs.”
  13. 13. The Evolution of the School Beslan Attack • Tactics we have seen elsewhere could be “coming to America” • Schools, hospitals, or other heavily populated (and normally non- combatant) targets may be engaged in CONUS.
  14. 14. Continuing Threat: Bombs of All Kinds • Car/Truck Bombs [Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDS)] • Homicide/Suicide Bombers Australian Embassy – Jakarta, Indonesia [Male/Female, Old/Young, Caucasian appearance] • The terrorists continue to Crater from evolve and adapt. Expect Beirut, Lebanon Bomb That initiation of improvised Killed former explosive devices by cell Lebanese phones and other more PM Rafik Hariri sophisticated methods
  15. 15. Assassinations… • Increasingly, we are seeing assassination attacks designed to kill political and military leaders…and intimidate nation-states. Numerous examples of this tactic have been seen in Iraq, Police Examine Shot-up Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Car After Assassination Ambush Philippines. We continue to believe that targeted assassinations are part of Al-Qaeda plans for 2005…
  16. 16. Threats to Aviation… • SAMs/Manpads Man-portable, surface-to-air missiles continue to be of major concern to ERRI analysts in the coming year. They are an efficient and low cost way to bring down a multi- million dollar plane, kill hundreds of people, and damage the Western economies and freedom of movement…
  17. 17. Leading Proponents of Economic Warfare Against the West • Our enemies have apparently recognized the dependence of Western countries on the oil producing countries in the Mid-East (i.e. Saudi Arabia, etc.) makes our economies strategically vulnerable to manipulation via the use of Both Zawahiri (L) and terrorism. High priority must Zarqawi (R), senior be given by the USG the operatives associated with development of alternative Al-Qaeda, have advocated using economic and sources of energy that reduce political methods to these dependencies at the damage the Western earliest opportunity… Economies…
  18. 18. Recent CIA Assessment: • “The terrorist threat has changed over the last 12 months away from a movement centrally directed by al Qaeda leadership to like-minded Sunni Islamic groups who share resources and goals,” Jacoby said. All of the groups, Jacoby added, quot;remain interested in chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons, and have a stated intention to conduct an attack exceeding the destruction of 9/11.quot; -- Defense Intelligence Agency Director Navy Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, March 17, 2005, before the Senate Armed Services Committee
  19. 19. Weapons of Mass Destruction
  20. 20. Nuclear Material Trafficking • As a terror weapon, a “dirty bomb” or improvised nuclear device (IND) would have great value to terrorists. ERRI analysts expect the “tangos” to attempt to use one in the foreseeable future. And the nuclear material In the opinion of ERRI analysts, counter- needed to produce proliferation efforts require additional an RDD is all too emphasis, personnel and funding. available…
  21. 21. Analysis of the Radiological Bomb… Bomb… • The problem with a dirty bomb is generally not the large number of casualties that it would cause. Instead, an RDD could become an “area denial weapon.” By contaminating a significant area, the terrorists could prompt a costly clean-up or even make it uninhabitable for a long period of time.
  22. 22. Dirty Bomb Dispersal in DC • The map above shows a typical dispersal pattern (plume) and an explanation of possible numbers of increased deaths due to exposure to contamination by a “dirty bomb” device…
  23. 23. Other Anticipated Threats...CW • Attacking or Sabotaging a Chemical Facility: A form of chemical terrorism, that ERRI analysts would anticipate in the future, is an attack against or the sabotage of a commercial chemical facility that produces, processes, or stores a highly toxic chemical, resulting in its deliberate release into the atmosphere. Prevailing winds could then carry the released chemicals over a populated area.
  24. 24. Information Operations • Terrorists continue to try to amplify their message via the internet, by providing stories to sympathetic journalists, and using psychological operations directed at the general citizenry…both in the United States and in those states directly involved in conflicts. • Increasingly, the terrorists are hoping to accomplish the same outcome as was achieved in Viet Nam…by a similar means…turning the American public against the War in Iraq and Afghanistan. Consequently, the terrorists are being assisted by anti-war groups and others with viewpoints opposing the war or America’s rising power in the world.
  25. 25. ERRI Emergency Net News We Monitor the World for You! • More Information? EMERGENCY RESPONSE & RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ERRI) EmergencyNet News Service 6348 North Milwaukee Avenue - #312, Chicago, Illinois 60646, USA Voice/Voice Mail: 773-631-ERRI Fax: 773-631-4703 Internet E-Mail: sysop@mail.emergency.com Web Page: http://www.emergency.com © Copyright, 2005, Emergency Response & Research Institute and the author. All rights reserved. This presentation contains military and law enforcement sensitive information and should not be distributed to the general public. Contact ERRI/EmergencyNet News for more information about any usage of this presentation.

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