Dehgan innovations in reducing international knowledge isolation final_aaas_021912Presentation Transcript
RethinkingDevelopment byLeveraging GlobalKnowledgeAlex DehganS&T Adviser to theAdministrator of the US Agencyfor International Development
6 Concerns5 Trends5 Opportunities
Redefining National Security Global > Local
Meta-analysis of Biological Impacts • Correlated 90% changes in 28,800 biological processes against observed temperature increases. • Looked at alternative causation due to landuse changes. • In biological systems, changes include shifts in spring events (for example, leaf unfolding, blooming date, migration and time of reproduction), species distributions and community structure. Additionally, studies have demonstrated changes in marine- ecosystem • In a few hundred years, people have released amounts of fossil carbon that took the planet hundreds of(Rosenzweig et al., Nature, May 15, 2008) millions of years to store.
Increased Variability of Climate Responses• Increases in flood risk due to intensification of the global water cycle.• Milly et al, Nature (2002) found that during the 20th century, “great floods”, increased substantially.• Great floods were 1:100 year floods with basins > 200,000 km2.• Consistent with climate model.
H1: Climate + Environment = Nonlinear Impacts Habitat loss can cause some extinctions directly by removing all the individuals over a short period of time. Alternatively, it can be indirectly responsible for lagged extinction by facilitating invasions, improving hunter access, eliminating prey, altering biophysical conditions, and increasing inbreeding.
Loss of Biodiversity•Loss of Pollinators, Increased invasivespecies, increased disease risk, loss ofeconomically important species.•Only 2.7% of the approximately 1.9million named, extant species have beenformally evaluated for extinction by theIUCN.
Emerging Infectious Diseases•New diseases are emerging at a"historically unprecedented" rate ofone per year. In the last five yearsalone, WHO has documented morethan 1,100 epidemics including birdflu, polio and cholera.•60% of recent EIDs are zoonotic, ofthose, 71.8% originate in wildlife.
Global Agriculture9 Billion people by 2050, 70-100% More Food, New Growing Middle Class in Brazil, India, China, Indonesia. 70% of harvested crops are fed to livestock in developed countries.109 ha of Natural Systems will be converted to globalagriculture. Loss of Natural Ecosystems equal to the UStotal Area. Losses from Latin American (Cerado, Amazon)and Sub-Saharan Central Africa.Loss of 1/3 Remaining tropical and temporate forms,savannahs, etc.2.7x Phosphorus added, 2.4x Nitrogen, 2.7x Pesticides,Eutrophication has huge impacts on coast waters.Irrigated Area increased by 1.9x
Water Challenges2.8 billion of the world’s poor – half the developing world’stotal population continue to live without access to animproved source of drinking water (0.9 billion) or basicsanitation facility (1.9 billion) as of 2008.Unsafe drinking water and poor sanitation account fornearly 10 % of the global burden of disease. In developingcountries, about 1.6 million children under the age of fivedie annual from diarrheal diseases caused by unsafe water.Agriculture. 60-70%+ of water use goes to Agriculture.Problems of salinity. Worldwide, some 17 percent ofagricultural lands are irrigated, producing 40 percent oftotal cereal production
Energy 2.6 billion people in the world, roughly 40%, don’t have access to reliable electricity. Challenge that many of these are present within groups of small communities with low population densities. Challenge of economic viability of operating a utility grid. Question: What happens when the bottom billions connect to the grid and want air conditioning?
Shifts to DevelopingWorldLess Developed Countries will have changed from 2x thepopulation of Developed Countries in 1950, to 6x by 2050.Virtually all the population growth in the next 45 yearswill be in less developed regions. Half of the GlobalIncrease will be in 9 Countries: India, Pakistan, Nigeria,DRC, Bangladesh, China, Uganda, Ethiopia, and the US.51 countries or areas, most in the economically moredeveloped world, will lose population between now and2050.
2. Democratization of Science
Cost of Whole Genome Sequencing •Cost of sequencing the human genome, 13 years, 2.7 billion 1991 dollars. •Cost of sequencing a single genome soon, <$1,000 •Complete Genomics is developing a sequencing system that will increase its throughput to 80 genomes per day.
Computing Power (increased power,decreased cost, exponential)The power of computing is increasing exponentially, whilethe cost is decreasing exponentially Moore’s Law: The number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. Cheap Storage Computing power of the internet – parallel processing
Connectivity: Mobile 5 Billion Cell phones around the world – they are now gateways to human knowledge, tools to create music and artwork, the are sensors. In Africa: It took nearly 20 years to attract the first 100 million subscribers It took less than 3 years to attract the next 200 million subscribers. Leapfroging. 2012: 13 Million fixed Landlines, 500 M+ mobile phone subscriptions. Developing Countries. In 2000 the developing countries accounted for around one- quarter of the world’s 700m or so mobile phones. By the beginning of 2009 their share had grown to three- quarters of a total which by then had risen to over 4 billion.
Connectivity: Internet Increase in Africa: 2,968%, Penetration: 13% World Average: 528%, Penetration: 32%
Crisis Camp Haiti: Random Hacks of Kindness Base layer map for Port Au Prince: This project would create a new collection of imagery and a new base map for NGOs and relief agencies. Post available imagery to share with the public for open source applications. Family Locators for Quake Victims Faster relief information and data sharing CrisisCamp will brought together domain experts, developers, and first responders around improving technology and practice for humanitarian crisis management and disaster relief.
The Age of Big DataNew York Times, Feb. 12, 2012 •Knowledge and the form of knowledge are expanding exponentially •Increase in sensors and opportunities for input. •Genomics •Remote Sensing •Amount of Data may be now doubling every 2 years •Understand process from patterns
Potential for Decentralization of Manufacturing 3D Printers Maker’s Fairs and DIY
Rethinking Development by Leveraging Global Knowledge
Premises• Development has become a living condition where billions of people have access to a few centuries of human technological progress, but where another few billion people do not.• There is an accelerating gulf between those who are connected and those who are not.• Challenges are increasingly global, and require global partnership to address. They are also opportunities.• Challenges are multidisciplinary and fluid• There are great ideas in the developing world. We need to jointly define the problems and the solutions together. This is required for our own economic growth.
Crowd-Sourcing the World• How do we bring new solvers into development? How do we find new technological solutions that may exist in other fields.• How do we better capture existing knowledge and solutions and apply them to development? How can we capture indigenous innovation?
Saving Lives at Birth A woman dies from childbirth every 2 minutes• The onset of labor marks start of high-risk period for mother and baby until at least 48 hours after birth. Each year – 150,000 maternal deaths 1.6 million neonatal deaths 1.2 million stillbirths• Majority of deaths in low and middle income countries – less than half of these mothers deliver in hospitals
We seek groundbreaking ideasThe Challenge that can LEAPFROG conventional approaches in three areas… technologies. Roadblock: lack of medical technologies appropriate for the community or clinic setting Target: bold ideas for science and technology advances that prevent, detect or treat maternal and newborn problems at the time of birth.service delivery. demand.Roadblock: too few trained, Roadblock: mothers in resource-poor settingsmotivated, equipped and often lack information about services theyproperly located health staff and need, what they can do, and benefits fromcaregivers accessing health care or adopting healthy behaviors.Target: bold ideas for newapproaches to high-quality care Target: bold ideas for empowering andat the time of birth engaging pregnant women and their families
DevelopmentXChange – OverviewThree Day Event Key components Competition: 75 finalists compete for funding by displaying and explaining project to selection committees (“interview”) (CLOSED) Innovator Workshops/Networking: Structured discussions/workshops to engage finalists on key challenges (business plan support, M&E, capacity building for scale, BCC, accessing financing, Agenda at a Glance etc.) (CLOSED) Development Exchange: Innovations displayed in open marketplace; opportunity to network and exchange ideas with finalists, innovators, funders and development experts (OPEN TO PUBLIC) Award Ceremony/XChange Talks: Series of “TED- like” talks combined with select innovator presentations (INVITATION ONLY) 27
Open Source Collaboration• Saturday: Innovating Innovation: Open Source Successes for Neglected Diseases and Beyond.• Give away everything you know, and more will come back to you.• Using Open Source Collaboration, Journals, Research design to create opportunities for participation in resource-poor environment. Clear advantages to allow for faster advancement of fields.• How can we use this for promoting knowledge based collaborations with the developing world?
Connecting the Unconnected• Digital Science Libraries (CRDF Global, State, USAID)• Open Access Journals.• Open Data Bases (genetics, biodiversity, remote sensing)• Real-time Google Earth.• I-Tunes U• MIT Open Courseware• Stanford AI Class (Sebastian Thun & Peter Norvig) – now through Udacity• Grand Challenge for Development: Education & Agriculture• Khan Academy: Free world-class education to anyone
122,383, 239 lessons delivered
Opportunities Global for Scientific Partnerships • Nature of Science is increasing collaborative as the problems require crossing more disciplines and bringing together more data. • PEER (www.nas.edu/peer). NSF-USAID. Scaling the Bilateral S&T model to 79 developing countries around the world. (Drs. Annica Wayman, Frederico Prado, Mark Doyle). Almost 500 applications, from >50 countries. • Bilateral S&T Programs: India, Egypt, Pakistan
Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research(PEER) A grants program to enhance partnerships between NSF-funded Scientists and their Developing Country Collaborators.US Scientist receives an NSF NSF Award supports the award to do research in research and training of country X US Scientists and Students USAID Award supports Partner scientist in country X in-country scientists, students, applies to USAID for support and institutions. to facilitate collaboration. - PEER will align with areas of joint USAID and NSF priorities. - USAID leverages NSF investment and merit review. - Will build research capacity at local institutions.
Current Models of Universities (and Science)
Next Generation CGIAR• Creative, Open, Multidisciplinary, Entrepreneurial.• Universities as laboratories for applying science, technology, and creativity to development.• Universities as incubators.Go to: www.usaid.gov/universities