Putting hydropower and renewables in context

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3rd Mekong Forum on Water, Food & Energy 2013. Presentation from Session 12: Alternative electricity sources and planning for the Mekong.

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  • Research project to try to understand the potential for renewable energy in a region with abundant cheap energy generation potential through hydropower, we are asking the question: what alternatives might renewable energy offer?Aim to inform both policy makers as well as renewable energy developers and investors as well as other organisations active in the field
  • Reviews of literature and documented experience on renewables internationally and in the LMBTechnology specific – technologies in use and in early stages of development internationally and potential in LMB countriesImplementation barriers – aim to answer the question: why don’t renewables comprise a higher proportion of the mix? Financial + institutionalSocial/environmental - small hydro compared to large – are impacts proportional to size of project or is it more complex than that?Case studies – each LMB country to better understand how international experience is playing out in the countries – more on next slideReports and issues paperAs well as synthesis report of all findingsPortfolio based planning, which we think may help better capture the advantages of RE because it considers fuel price and other risks into account with the aim of presenting a suite of possible scenarios with different levels of risk for planners to considerInterogate how the energy needs of the region can be met with renewable energy compared with hydropower and attempt to answer the question: to what extent can RE be a substitute for hydropower?
  • Energy system based study in VietnamPolicy framework review in ThailandTwo technology based studies – in Cambodia and Lao PDR
  • Sure we can bend the curve, it might be difficult, but the issue is probably more one of
  • The first question to answer when considering the power sector in the region is do we need more.The short answer is yes, for the foreseeable future….
  • Over 100 GW increase
  • 1. This shows the current and planned capacity in the four LMB countries by technology – not just MKB2. 366% increase in renewables – although it should be noted that they are only projected to meet 7% of power generated3.97% increase in HP capacity
  • Of course this is technical potential, for example given that ground mounted solar would occupy approximately 2 ha per MW, that would be approximately 1465 sq.km for solar
  • Costs: e.g.
  • Putting hydropower and renewables in context

    1. 1. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN MEKONG POWER SUPPLY (MK14) CPWF Mekong Forum – Session 12, 20 November 2013 Putting hydropower and renewables in context John Sawdon
    2. 2. Contents    Part 1: Overview of the project Part 2: Hydropower and renewables – substitutes or complements? Part 3: Introduction of sessions 12 and 14
    3. 3. Overview of the project
    4. 4. Project objectives  Assess the potential role of renewables in the regional power generation mix  Enhance the evidence base on renewable energy potential  Identify barriers to renewable energy having a more substantial contribution to power supply
    5. 5. Scope  Project sought to build on existing work in the region Numerous studies of renewables policy, deployment and potential  More recent strategic environmental assessment of the power sector in the GMS   Project focused upon where it was able to addvalue Country power sector contexts extremely varied (RE and HP capacity, available resources etc.) – facing different challenges  Combination of review of international experience, secondary data collection from the region 
    6. 6. Literature review of international experience Renewable energy technology review Barriers to renewable energy deployment Case studies to „ground-truth‟ review Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam Synthesis report and issues papers Review of regional barriers to renewables expansion and diffusion and recommendations Meeting energy needs: hydropower compared with renewables
    7. 7. CCDE Regional reviews and papers Vietnam case study on meeting peak demand with solar PV Cambodia study on rice husk gasification Project partners Thailand study on current policy framework for RE and lessons for other countries Lao PDR study on small hydropower
    8. 8. Hydropower and renewables – substitutes or compliments? Technology choice in the power sector
    9. 9. Electricity demand  The regional context of rapid economic growth and structural change is driving growing electricity demand  Sector plans over-estimate demand and underestimate potential demand-side measures (EE, DSM)
    10. 10. Putting regional power consumption growth in the global context Malaysia 1971 - 2011 4,500 14,000 USA 1960 - 2011 4,000 12,000 China 1971 - 2011 3,500 Korea 1971 - 2011 10,000 Thailand 1971 - 2011 kWh/capita kWh/capita 3,000 2,500 2,000 Japan 1960 - 2011 8,000 6,000 Germany 1970 - 2011 1,500 Vietnam 1984 - 2011 4,000 1,000 2,000 500 Cambodia 1995 - 2011 0 0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 GDP/Capita (constant 2005 USD) Source: based on data from IEA 2013, World Bank 2013 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 GDP/Capita (constant 2005 USD)
    11. 11. Technology choices in the PDPs 180 160 RE: Increase from 3.5 GW to 16.5 GW 140 Hydro: Increase from18.2 GW to 36 GW Increase in number of plants from 69 to 16 GW 120 100 80 Could this additional 17.8 GW of hydropower capacity be met through alternative renewab technologies? 60 40 20 0 2012 2025 Nuclear Coal/ lignite Gas Large hydro Renewables Cogen/others Source: ADB TA 7764 REG
    12. 12. Renewables potential in the LMB Technology Wind Solar Geothermal Small hydro Biomass / biogas Total Additional planned HP Addtional technical LMB potential (MW) 7,600 73,230 391 6,991 1,602 90,115 17,750 Source: Based upon ADB TA 7764 REG data Load factor (%) Generation (GWh) 25 18 16,644 115,469 90 50 60 3,083 30,621 8,420 174,236 50 87,203
    13. 13. Different technologies different roles  Modern power systems based upon a centralized grid structure  Large scale generation (inc. large hydro power) supplies transmission grid and large industrial users  Renewables offers a different kind of service:     Smaller scale Connected to lower voltage network Producer-consumers with very small generation units (e.g. roof top solar) Potential niche for RE for off-grid consumers  Not a significant source of demand
    14. 14. Comparing hydropower and renewables Hydropower (>30 MW)        Large scale Supply to transmission grid Base load and peaking Can have significant storage Relatively cheap Well understood Provides ancillary Renewables       Small scale modular Supply to low voltage distribution network Not dispatchable (“must run”) (solar/wind) Seasonal and daily variability Currently expensive Not well understood, implication s for wide scale deployment still being worked out
    15. 15. Comparing generation technologies Technology Typical characteristics Capital costs (USD/kW) Typical energy costs (USc/kWh) Large hydro Capacity: 30 – 18,000 + MW Load factor: 30 – 60% Projects >300 MW: <2,000 Projects 30 - 300 MW: 2,000 –4,000 2–12 Small hydro Capacity: <30 MW Load factor: 20 – 60% 1,175–3,500 5 - 40 Turbine size: 1.5–3.5 MW Load factor: 25–40% 1,750–1,770 925–1,470 (China and India) 4–16 Solar PV** Peak capacity: 2.5–250 MW Load factor: 10–25% 1,300–1,950 9 - 40 Geothermal Plant size: 1–100 MW Load factor: 60–90% Wind* Biomass/biogas Plant size: 1–200 MW Load factor: 50 – 90% * On-shore; **Ground mounted utility scale 2,100 – 6,100 800–4,500 6 - 14 5.5–20 Source: REN21, 2013
    16. 16. Compliments not substitutes?   Variability of renewables can pose problems for electricity grids Variability of wind output in April 2009 (California) Source: http://integrating-renewables.org/
    17. 17. High penetration renewables will require significantly different systems   Many geographically dispersed RE or RE technologies of different types may smooth intermittency High penetration RE (>10 – 30%) will likely require additional backup capacity which can respond quickly to variations in renewables output:    Gas Hydropower Using conventional technologies to smooth intermittency will imply different institutional arrangements – may prove difficult for hydropower http://integrating-renewables.org/
    18. 18. Compliments not substitutes?  Hydropower‟s flexibility in power generation can act to smooth the variability of supply from renewables generation – significant challenges for the management of HP projects  Higher penetration of RE technologies may be possible because significant hydropower capacity in the region  This is not to say that more hydropower is necessarily needed to enable effective integration of renewables into grid systems - but that synergies are likely to exist
    19. 19. Key messages  No simple choice exists between alternative renewables technologies and hydropower  Medium and large hydropower projects currently fulfill different roles in electricity systems to that which can be played by renewables  There are significant potential synergies between renewables and hydropower – although realizing them would imply a significant amount of work ensuring the institutional framework is in place  This may change as the economics, institutions and technologies of regional electricity systems change  But the outcomes of these changes are far from certain – there is still a lot to be done
    20. 20. Enhancing the role of renewables      1. Technological potential and dynamic cost considerations (Tim Suljada, ICEM) 2. Thailand‟s experience of renewable energy policy (Jiab Tongsopit, ERI) 3. The role of solar PV in Vietnam (Nguyen Quoc Khanh, ICEM) 4. Bridging the gap in renewables deployment (Alex Kenny, ICEM) 5. Impacts of small hydropower on fisheries (Garry, Thorncroft, MK15)
    21. 21. Thank you Mekong Forum | 19-21 November 2013 John Sawdon (john.sawdon@gmail.com)

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