Water & Poverty Links In Agriculture SWWW09 Allen Et Al

794 views

Published on

CPWF researcher, Dr Summer Allen, presents her team's findings regarding the link between poverty and water access in poor rural areas across the Sao Francisco river basin of Brazil.

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
794
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
9
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Water & Poverty Links In Agriculture SWWW09 Allen Et Al

  1. 1. Water and Poverty Linkages in Agricultural Settings: São Francisco River Basin, Brazil Summer L. Allen World Water Week Stockholm, Sweden August 18, 2009
  2. 2. Past Research Conclusions <ul><li>A few empirical studies have addressed this link (Water Poverty Index- Sullivan 2005, Constrained Income models -Boccanfuso, Estache, and Savard 2005, World Bank 2006, Neubert, et al. 2007). </li></ul><ul><li>In Latin America in particular, water access one of the most important factors in income disparities (UNDP 2006). </li></ul><ul><li>In general, poverty is 20-40% lower inside irrigation networks, but depends on many other factors (land equity, etc.) (World Bank 2007, Bhattarai, et al. 2002). </li></ul>
  3. 3. Research Questions <ul><li>How should access to water be measured to incorporate surface water flows and would this change conclusions regarding impact? </li></ul><ul><li>What role has long-term water availability played in rural poverty in the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB)? </li></ul><ul><li>What other factors influence the ability of smallholders to generate income or gain employment? </li></ul>
  4. 4. Research Location
  5. 5. Total Poverty in SFRB
  6. 6. Rural Poverty
  7. 7. Water Availability
  8. 8. Agricultural Production
  9. 9. Precipitation and Rural Poverty in the SFRB 0 20% 40% 60% % rural poor 500 1000 1500 2000 mean precipitation(mm)
  10. 10. Potential Effects of Water on Poverty <ul><li>Direct impacts of water access ( Y ) </li></ul><ul><li>Increases in yields for a specific crop ( Q ) </li></ul><ul><li>Change in crop mix ( V )* </li></ul><ul><li>Expansion of agriculture ( A ) </li></ul><ul><li>Change hourly labor ( H ) </li></ul>Income ( Y ) in each município ( i ) is a product of agricultural incomes ( Y ag ) and wages earned ( W ), given socio-economic factors ( SE ) and environmental factors ( E ), and influenced by water ( WA ):
  11. 11. Variables Evaluated <ul><li>Water Access Variables ( WA ) </li></ul><ul><li>Precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>Variability of Precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>Water Availability Index </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural Variables ( Y ag ) </li></ul><ul><li>Cultivated Area </li></ul><ul><li>% of Small Farms </li></ul><ul><li>% Irrigated </li></ul><ul><li>Output Index: </li></ul><ul><li>Wages </li></ul><ul><li>Socio – Economic Controls ( SE ) </li></ul><ul><li>Primary Education </li></ul><ul><li>Migration Rates </li></ul><ul><li>Dependents </li></ul><ul><li>Distance to Markets </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanization </li></ul><ul><li>State Indicator </li></ul><ul><li>Size of Município </li></ul>
  12. 12. Low Precipitation Areas
  13. 13. Low Precipitation Areas Poverty Extreme Poverty VARIABLES Water Agric Socio-Econ Political Water Agri Socio-Econ Political Precipitation 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.02 -0.02 0.04 Std dev of precip 0.49*** 0.45*** 0.25* 0.25* 0.30** 0.24* 0.08 0.05 Water avail index 1.00 5.86 2.77 2.45 0.10 2.76 1.13 1.23 % irrigated -0.64*** -0.47** -0.47** -0.36** -0.27 -0.28* Log productivity index -25.95*** -14.35** -12.54** -17.32*** -9.80** -8.85** Log cultivated area -6.65** -0.28 -0.31 -5.84** -2.12 -1.89 Distance to cities 0.07* 0.07* 0.09** 0.07* Distance to airports 0.10* 0.08 0.14*** 0.12** % migrated -1.17 -1.60** -0.11 -0.92 Log rural wages -7.38* -8.09* -6.11 -4.78 Dependency ratio 0.37*** 0.36*** 0.20*** 0.21*** Log Urbanization 1.65 6.17 1.72 9.59 education 2.97 4.35 -0.85 0.28 % small farms -0.23 -0.53 0.37 0.2 AL state 0.08*** 0.09*** SE state 0.04* 0.06*** BA1 state 0.04** 0.08*** PE1 state 0.04** 0.07*** Município size 0.08 0.18 Observations 238 237 195 195 237 236 194 194 Adjusted R-squared 0.03 0.204 0.436 0.462 0.012 0.126 0.279 0.382
  14. 14. High Precipitation Areas
  15. 15. High Precipitation Areas Poverty Extreme Poverty VARIABLES Water Agri Socio-Econ Political Water Agri Socio-Econ Political Precipitation -0.30*** -0.35*** -0.18*** -0.16*** -0.11*** -0.14*** -0.07*** -0.05*** Std dev of precip 1.01*** 0.99*** 0.32** 0.22 0.56*** 0.55*** 0.25*** 0.11 Water avail index -10.29 -6.74 -4.67 -6.89* -1.18 0.75 1.95 -0.5 % irrigated 0.02 -0.21 -0.26 0.01 0.04 0.02 Log productivity index -29.36** -10.07 -10.14 -13.29** -6.11 -5.88* Log cultivated area 20.27*** 7.02** 2.74 11.20*** 4.54*** 0.32 Distance to cities 0.08** 0.08* 0.05** 0.04* Distance to airports 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.01 % migrated -0.1 -0.29 0.29 0.09 Log rural wages -18.58*** -18.60*** -4.50** -4.22** Dependency ratio 0.42*** 0.38*** 0.13*** 0.09*** Log Urbanization -71.46*** -62.30*** -43.97*** -32.56*** education -25.20*** -21.84*** -16.50*** -11.66*** % small farms 1.96*** 1.75*** 0.96*** 1.00*** MG state -0.05* -0.03** BA1 state -0.01 0.01 Município Size 0.09 0.15 Observations 193 193 171 171 193 193 171 171 Adjusted R-squared 0.416 0.485 0.788 0.797 0.397 0.497 0.735 0.812
  16. 16. Summary of Regression Results <ul><li>Explain 80% of variation in rural poverty in high precip areas; 40-50% of poverty in low precip areas. </li></ul><ul><li>Water variables (including the new WAI) explain 40% of variation in poverty in high precip areas but only10% in low precip areas. Similar results seen between water and HDI. </li></ul><ul><li>In low precip areas, inter-annual variation is important while quantity is more important in high precip areas. </li></ul><ul><li>In low precip areas, options off-farm and market access help reduce poverty rates; in high precip areas, human capital investments help reduce poverty rates. </li></ul><ul><li>State-level influences are significant. </li></ul>
  17. 17. Policy Implications <ul><li>Historical environmental constraints and adaptations must be considered in economic strategies. </li></ul><ul><li>Factors other than water availability or agricultural production are important for poverty alleviation in low precipitation areas. However, low precip areas may be particularly vulnerable to increased variability due to climate change. </li></ul><ul><li>Investments in primary education and market infrastructure (in some cases, airport access) should be supported. </li></ul><ul><li>Extreme poverty and poverty may need to be addressed through different mechanisms (in low precip areas, irrigation is less important in determining ex. poverty than poverty). </li></ul>
  18. 18. References <ul><li>Allen, S. and S. Vosti. 2007. “Determining the Links between Agricultural Water Availability and Rural Poverty: A Review of the Modelling Literature,” São Francisco River Basin Research Team Working Paper. </li></ul><ul><li>Azzoni, C.R., F.G. Silveira, A.Y. Carvalho, A. Ibarra, B.P.C. Diniz and G.R.C. Moreira. 2006. “Estudo de Caracterização e Análise da Estrutura de Consumo e de Dispêndio das Famílias do Meio Rural Brasileiro: Gastos Não Monetários, Auto-Consumo e Pobreza.” Relatório final consolidado da espacialização da pobreza no meio rural Produto 6, 2006. </li></ul><ul><li>Bhattarai, M, R. Sakthivadivel, and I. Hussain. 2002. “ Irrigation Impacts of Income Inequality and Poverty Allevition.” Working Paper 39. Colombo: IWMI. </li></ul><ul><li>Boccanfuso, D, A. Estache, and L. Savard. (2005). “A Poverty and Inequality Assessment of Liberalization of Water Utility in Senegal: A Macro-Micro Analysis, ” International Economic Development Research Group (GRÉDI) Working Paper 05-13. Québec: Université of Sherbrooke. </li></ul><ul><li>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). 2000. Censo Demográficos. Available at: http://www.ibge.gov.br </li></ul><ul><li>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. 2004. Produção Agrícola Municipal. Available at: http://www.ibge.gov.br </li></ul><ul><li>Maneta, M., M. Torres, S. Vosti, W. Wallender, S. Allen, L. Bassoi, L. Bennett, R. Howitt, L. </li></ul><ul><li>Rodrigues, and J. Young. 2009. “ Assessing agriculture-water links at the basin scale: </li></ul><ul><li>hydrologic and economic models of the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil”, Water </li></ul><ul><li>International 34 :1,88-103. </li></ul>
  19. 19. <ul><li>Neubert, S., et al. 2007. “Poverty Oriented Irrigation Policy in Kenya: Empirical Results and Suggestions for Reform.” Discussion Paper 12 . Bonn, Germany: German Development Institute. </li></ul><ul><li>Sullivan, C., J. Meigh, and P. Lawrence. 2005. “Application of the Water Poverty Index at Different Scales: A Cautionary Tale.” Agriculture Ecosystems and the Environment . </li></ul><ul><li>Torres, M. and S. Vosti. 2006. “The Distribution of Poverty across the São Francisco River Basin: Spatial Correlations and Cluster Analysis,” São Francisco River Basin Research Team Working Paper. </li></ul><ul><li>UNDP. 2006. Human Development Report 2006. Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty, and the Global Water Crisis. New York: UNDP . </li></ul><ul><li>Vosti, S., S. Allen, and J. Young. 2008. “Characterizing Agriculture and Agricultural Change in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil,” São Francisco River Basin Research Team Working Paper. </li></ul><ul><li>Vosti, S., S. Allen, and J. Young. 2007. “Characterizing Population and Poverty Trends in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil,” São Francisco River Basin Research Team Working Paper. </li></ul><ul><li>World Bank. 2006. “Ethiopia: Managing Water Resources to Maximize Sustainable Growth.” Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy . Washington, DC: World Bank. </li></ul><ul><li>World Bank. 2007. World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. </li></ul>References

×