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Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
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Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods

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  • My Talk is entitled: Modeling Ecosystem Services in the Volta Basin: The InVEST Approach on Avoided Reservoir Sedimentation
  • Transcript

    • 1. Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods F. Kizito, J. Barron, L. Davelaar, S. Douxchamps, O. Cofie, K. Minong , VBDC PLs VBDC Science Workshop July 2012
    • 2. background methods project status Study background next steps 2
    • 3. background Study background Study background Project Objective: To isolate storylines based on past and present research coupled with farmers narratives, to identify common threads and interventions that could provide various contexts for exploring AWMi for improved livelihoods of various communities Methodology: oStudy is being conducted at multiple scales across the Volta Basin oRelevant system drivers have been identified oRisk, vulnerability and adaptive framework developed Project Outcome: oCompelling consistent threads of storylines and scenarios oStorylines and scenarios yield innovative ideas which can be transformed into realistic and viable interventions that enhance livelihoods across multiple scales 3
    • 4. background Study Sites Study area covers 6 watersheds within the Volta Basin with some watersheds sharing the border between with Ghana and Burkina Faso. The chosen watersheds currently have ongoing work within the VBDC. (Note: Boura and Binaba are not to scale) Bougouriba (V4) Boura (V3) Binaba (V3) 4
    • 5. background Justification  Drivers on the Basin are predicted to increase the frequency and severity of extreme events such as droughts and flooding which in turn have various social and environmental consequences  Interventions that focus on integrated water resources management serve as viable and promising adaptation mechanisms that reduce future risk and vulnerability  This calls for an assessment framework to characterize the risks associated with the Volta Basin in order to evaluate viable options or interventions for reducing vulnerability. Evaluate onEvaluate ongoing projects going projects with associated with associated uncertainties uncertainties Characterize Characterize key risks and key risks and vulnerabilities vulnerabilities Evaluate viable Evaluate viable interventions interventions for reducing for reducing vulnerabilities vulnerabilities Robust Robust adaptive adaptive managemen managemen tt
    • 6. background Conceptual Framework Determinants Basin Drivers Political, Economic, Environmental, Demographic, Technological External Internal Global Drivers Regional Drivers Household Level Drivers V1 Scenarios Worst case Risks, Vulnerability & Adaptation levels Viable interventions and modified storylines Very high V2 Markets V2 Community Drivers Preliminary Storylines V3 V4 Policies V2 Bearable Institutions Information Technology High V3 V4 Best case Moderate Present case (Status Quo) V1 V3 V4 V5 Low Resources V5 VBDC Research Outcome The process is not linear; highly depends on the drivers which yield preliminary storylines. These are assessed against a set of scenarios and evaluated for risk and vulnerability to yield viable storylines and pertinent interventions 6
    • 7. methods Methodology Hydrologically corrected DEM Spatial Data Database at Watershed Level d h s r e t a W -F v i t n ’ s e m r a - O -g n o h c a s e r g n i -S t y r a d n o c e -V K e r S n i s B a t l o -C t l u r I e s a h F W P s d e h s r e t a W Gender Dimensions Disease prevalence Education/ literacy Human Dev’t indicators -e i m n o c Non Spatial Data i c o S Protected Areas Transportation/Roads Population Market Access Poverty index Arc SWAT Model l a c s y h p o i B Land Use/ Land Cover Hydrology Climatic data Soils Drought risk index Erosion risk index Flood exposure index Slope Aspect Drainage Weightage and Ranking of each indicator, sub-indicator and proxy indicator XLRM Framework & Tradeoff analysis Combined Sensitivity index Combined Adaptive Capability Index Combined Risk/Exposure Index Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping Based on weightage accorded to Sensitivity, Exposure and Adaptive Capability Storylines and scenarios with potential viable interventions 7
    • 8. methods The XLRM Framework Framework structures analysis around key uncertainties, adaptation options, performance metrics, and analytical relationships X: eXogenous factors (uncertain)/ Scenarios L: Levers These are factors that are outside our control and form a basis for “Scenarios” These serve as management strategies or response packages/options for example they show: - Current conditions - Adaptation Options R: Relationships M: Performance Metrics These are relationships or models that estimate outcomes or performance metrics (M) for strategies or interventions (L) under specific scenarios (X) These are natural resources related outcomes of interest e.g. evaluation criteria, supply reliability, market access or environmental integrity  The XLRM framework will aid in vulnerability assessment 8
    • 9. methods Tradeoff quadrant VBDC Impact Conducted during vulnerability assessment High Win-Win Win-Lose Low Win-Lose Lose-Lose Low Uncertainty High
    • 10. methods Vulnerability Assessment Indicators  Sensitivity Analysis: the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli  Exposure/Risk Analysis: the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations  Adaptive Capacity Analysis: the ability of a system to adjust to climate change  Vulnerability = f (sensitivity, exposure, adaptive capacity) 10
    • 11. methods Watershed Sensitivity Assessment Indicators Parameters Direct indicators Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Biophysical Human Soils Proxy indicators . Protected area coverage Topography (slope, aspect) Drainage density Dominant climate Population 11
    • 12. methods Watershed Risk/Exposure Assessment Indicators Parameters Temperature and rainfall Flood Drought/flood risk index Direct indicators Mean seasonal temperature trend Mean seasonal rainfall trend Death Injured Property loss Occurrence Positive annual rainfall trend Daily precipitation Food surplus and deficiency Human ecology Reproductive rate Life expectancy Physical ecology Land cover density Proxy indicators Population pressure on forest land Human poverty index Accessibility Surface soil erosion Landscape degradation 12
    • 13. methods Watershed Adaptive Capability Assessment Indicators Parameters Socioeconomic Infrastructure* Technology Direct indicators Proxy indicators Human development index Human poverty index Gender development index Human empowerment index Road length Cell phone Electricity presence Irrigated land area Existence of soil and water conservation interventions e.g. terraced areas  *Some of the socio-economic indicators take into account infrastructure presence 13
    • 14. methods Example of XLRM Framework Applicability Basin Drivers Low soil fertility in landscapes Impacting V2, V3 and V4 communities X L Determinants MoFA has fertilizer Subsidy and Improved Seed variety arrangements L Emerging Storylines Degraded soil and water resources Low crop yields Insufficient livestock feed R, M Scenarios Risks, Vulnerability & Adaptation levels Communities embark on Soil-water conservation Technologies, receive subsidies and improved seed and embark on interventions Communities not Taking part in Initiatives or Simply opt for traditional Low technology methods Less risk and vulnerability with higher adaptive capacity and resilience Increased risk and vulnerability with low adaptive capacity M Viable interventions & Modified storylines -Promising outcomes: improve soil fertility, higher crop yields and sufficient livestock feed -Strategies that enhance livelihoods copied or embraced neighboring communities M L, R, M 14
    • 15. project status Project Update and Status  The VSS will continue enhancing VBDC project integration by framing research to current project needs within the scope of the project Last month, a field trip was conducted to capture farmers narratives in the Northern region in the V2 sites  The next sites to be visited include: V3 and V4 sites in Burkina Faso in July Current work products:  Functional Project Blog for information sharing  Past and present literature sources on Volta Basin Research (posted on blog)  Field photos, farmers videos with narratives/stories  Continued research framing to current needs 15
    • 16. project status Emerging community dynamics  Identified common drivers and determinants among the four communities o Demographic impact o Role of technology o Impact of climate and crop varieties o Indigenous knowledge: e.g. use of inorganic Vs organic manures  Identified differences in communities in terms of resources, market access, cultural norms, coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies 16
    • 17. project status Conclusion  Narratives from upcoming visit will complement on-going assessment  Study will endeavor to incorporate essential elements of the XLRM framework in order to ensure a holistic approach  Vulnerability assessment maps are being developed to complement emerging storylines and scenarios for each watershed dependent on data availability 17
    • 18. next steps Identified gaps  Emphasis should be placed on linkages between vulnerability and resilience assessment an aspect critical for achieving the VBDC  An integrated perspective that combines a top down and bottom up approach should be sought to incorporate farmers narratives with other policy and biophysical inputs 18
    • 19. next steps Next steps Complete field visits for V3 and V4 sites Continue conducting vulnerability assessment as a proxy for resilience evaluation in the basin  Relate resilience to emerging storylines an aspect that would help VBDC project integration by framing research to current project needs 19
    • 20. 20
    • 21. background Conceptual Framework Global drivers Determinants • Farmers narrative • Past research • Literature • VBDC research STORYLINES SCENARIOS Vulnerability/ Resilience assessment • XLRM • Trade-off analysis • vulnerability maps Priorities / viable interventions evaluation Robust adaptive management / VBDC outcomes