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Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods
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Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions that enhance livelihoods

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CPWF Volta Science Workshop: Cross cutting Topics

CPWF Volta Science Workshop: Cross cutting Topics

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  • 1. Volta Storylines and Scenarios:  A mouthpiece for interventions  that enhance livelihoods F. Kizito, J. Barron, L. Davelaar, S. Douxchamps, O. Cofie, K. Minong , VBDC PLs VBDC Science Workshop July 2012 1
  • 2. background methods project status next steps Study background 2
  • 3. background Study background Study backgroundProject Objective: To isolate storylines based on past and present research coupled with farmers narratives,  to identify common threads and interventions that could provide various contexts for exploring AWMi for  improved livelihoods of various communitiesMethodology: o Study is being conducted at multiple scales across the Volta Basino Relevant system drivers have been identifiedo Risk, vulnerability and adaptive framework developedProject Outcome: o Compelling consistent threads of storylines and scenarioso Storylines and scenarios yield innovative ideas which can be transformed into  realistic and viable interventions that enhance livelihoods across multiple  scales 3
  • 4. background Study Sites Study area covers 6 watershedswithin the Volta Basin withsome watersheds sharing the Bougouriba (V4) Boura (V3)border between with Ghana Binaba (V3)and Burkina Faso. The chosenwatersheds currently have on‐going work within the VBDC.(Note: Boura and Binaba arenot to scale) 4
  • 5. background Justification Drivers on the Basin are predicted to increase the frequency and severity of  extreme events such as droughts and flooding which in turn have various social  and environmental consequences Interventions that focus on integrated water resources management serve as  viable and promising adaptation mechanisms that reduce future risk and  vulnerability This calls for an assessment framework to characterize the risks associated with  the Volta Basin in order to evaluate viable options or interventions for reducing  vulnerability.  Evaluate on‐ Evaluate viable  Characterize  Robust going projects  interventions  key risks and  adaptive with associated  for reducing  vulnerabilities management uncertainties vulnerabilities
  • 6. background Conceptual FrameworkBasin Drivers Determinants Preliminary Scenarios Risks, Vulnerability Viable interventions  Political, Economic,  Storylines & Adaptation levels and modified storylines Environmental,  Demographic,  Technological V1 Worst case Very high External Internal V2 V1 Global Drivers Markets V2 Policies V2 Bearable High V3 Regional  Drivers  Institutions V4 V3 V3 Community  Information Drivers  Technology Best case Moderate V5 Household V4 V4 Level Drivers  Resources V5 Present case Low (Status Quo) VBDC Research Outcome The process is not linear; highly depends on the drivers which yield  preliminary storylines. These are assessed against a set of  scenarios and evaluated for risk and vulnerability to yield viable  storylines and pertinent interventions 6
  • 7. methods Methodology 7
  • 8. methods The XLRM Framework Framework structures  analysis around key  uncertainties,  adaptation options,  performance metrics,  and analytical  relationshipsThe XLRM framework will aid in vulnerability assessment 8
  • 9. methods Tradeoff  quadrant Conducted during vulnerability assessmentVBDC Impact  High Win‐Win Win‐Lose Low Win‐Lose Lose‐Lose Low High Uncertainty
  • 10. methods Vulnerability Assessment IndicatorsSensitivity Analysis: the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate‐related stimuliExposure/Risk Analysis:  the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variationsAdaptive Capacity Analysis:  the ability of a system to adjust to climate change Vulnerability = f (sensitivity, exposure, adaptive capacity) 10
  • 11. methodsWatershed Sensitivity Assessment Indicators Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators . Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Protected area coverage Biophysical Soils Topography (slope, aspect) Drainage density Dominant climate Human Population 11
  • 12. methodsWatershed Risk/Exposure Assessment Indicators  Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators Mean seasonal temperature Temperature and  trendrainfall Mean seasonal rainfall trend Death InjuredFlood Property loss Occurrence Positive annual rainfall trendDrought/flood risk  Daily precipitation Population pressure on index Food surplus and deficiency forest land Reproductive rate Human poverty indexHuman ecology Life expectancy Accessibility Surface soil erosionPhysical ecology Land cover density Landscape degradation 12
  • 13. methodsWatershed Adaptive Capability Assessment Indicators  Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators Human development index Human poverty indexSocioeconomic Gender development index Human empowerment index Road lengthInfrastructure* Cell phone Electricity presence Irrigated land area Existence of soil and water Technology conservation interventions e.g.  terraced areas *Some of the socio‐economic indicators take into  account infrastructure presence 13
  • 14. methods Example of XLRM Framework ApplicabilityBasin Drivers Determinants Emerging  Scenarios Risks, Vulnerability Viable interventions Storylines & Adaptation levels & Modified storylines Low soil fertility in  landscapes  MoFA has  Impacting V2, V3  fertilizer  Degraded soil  and V4 Subsidy and  and water  ‐Promising  Communities  communities Improved resources outcomes:  embark on Seed variety  Low crop  improve soil  X L arrangements yields Insufficient  Soil‐water  conservation Less risk  and vulnerability  fertility, higher  crop yields and  Technologies,  L livestock feed  receive subsidies  and improved  with higher adaptive  capacity and resilience sufficient livestock  feed ‐Strategies that  R, M seed and embark  on interventions enhance  livelihoods copied  or embraced  Communities not Increased risk and  neighboring  Taking part in vulnerability with communities Initiatives or low adaptive capacity Simply opt for traditional  Low technology  M M methods L, R, M 14
  • 15. project status Project Update and Status The VSS will continue enhancing VBDC project integration by framing research to current project needs within the scope of the project Last month, a  field trip was conducted to capture farmers narratives in the Northern region in the V2 sitesThe next sites to be visited include: V3 and V4 sites in Burkina Faso in JulyCurrent work products: Functional Project Blog for information sharing  Past and present literature sources on Volta Basin Research (posted on blog) Field photos, farmers videos with narratives/stories Continued research framing to current needs 15
  • 16. project status Emerging community dynamics Identified common drivers and determinants  among the four communities o Demographic impact o Role of technology o Impact of climate and crop varieties o Indigenous knowledge: e.g. use of inorganic Vs organic manures Identified differences in communities in terms of resources, market access, cultural norms, coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies 16
  • 17. project status ConclusionNarratives from upcoming visit will complement on‐going assessmentStudy will endeavor to incorporate essential elements of the XLRM framework in order to ensure a holistic approachVulnerability assessment maps are being developed to complement emerging storylines and scenarios for each watershed dependent on data availability 17
  • 18. next steps Identified gaps Emphasis should be placed on linkages between vulnerability and resilience assessment an aspect critical for achieving the VBDCAn integrated perspective that combines a top down and bottom up approach should be sought to incorporate farmers narratives with other policy and biophysical inputs 18
  • 19. next steps Next steps Complete field visits for V3 and V4 sitesContinue conducting vulnerability assessment as a proxy for resilience evaluation in the basinRelate resilience to emerging storylines an aspect that would help VBDC project integration by framing research to current project needs  19
  • 20. 20
  • 21. background Conceptual FrameworkGlobal drivers Determinants • Farmers narrative • Past research • Literature • VBDC research Vulnerability/  STORYLINES SCENARIOS Resilience  assessment • XLRM • Trade‐off analysis • vulnerability maps Priorities / viable interventions evaluation Robust adaptive management / VBDC outcomes

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