TAGMI - an interdisciplinary decisions support tool in AWM outscaling for the Volta River basin

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by J. Barron, E. Kemp-Benedict, J. Morris, A. de Bruin, G. Wang and A. Fenci …

by J. Barron, E. Kemp-Benedict, J. Morris, A. de Bruin, G. Wang and A. Fenci
Presented at the Final Volta Basin Development Challenge Science Workshop, September 2013

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  • Match: 15 No match: 17 adoptionPred High Med LowHigh 4 3 9Med 3 2 2Low 2 5 4
  • (evidence: consultations)evidence: consultations, PGIS synthesis)Low strength in prediction (evidence: TAGMI outputs)

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  • 1. A Partner of TAGMI: An Interdisciplinary Decisions Support Tool in Agricultural Water Management Outscaling for the Volta River Basin Barron, J., Kemp-Benedict, E., Morris. J., de Bruin, A., Wang, G., Fencl, A. this work is based on the V1 ‘Targeting and scaling out’ project led by SEI in partnership with INERA, University of Ouagadougou, CSIR-SARI and KNUST
  • 2. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta MAIN MESSAGES • The TAGMI (Targeting AG water Management Interventions) is an online decision support tool developed for supporting investments and action in smallholder farming in Volta and Limpopo  It includes both biophysical and social economic conditions influencing oustcaling  It integrates multiple sources of expertise and knowledge  It provides a measure of strength of prediction • TAGMI can guide on geographical location opportunities based on given conditions. However , implementation of action need to be done with ‘best practise in implementation ‘ for successful outcome
  • 3. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta BACKGROUND Volta and Limpopo Basin Stakeholders demand in 2009: “…the question of what AWM intervention can work where and why” V1-L1 purpose : To develop and evidence a knowledge-based tool to assess and map the likelihood that a given intervention will be successful in given locations, at the basin scale -three technologies, two basins
  • 4. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta APPROACH 1 • Process of consultation : incorporate various sources of knowledge • Decide what is relevant AWM technologies, what is ‘success’ Consultation 2012Consultation 2011 Synthesis Full Irrigation Rainfed
  • 5. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta APPROACH 2 • Merge interdisciplinary factors with Bayes approach • Develop web based interface in open source and accessible data layer
  • 6. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 1.RESULTS: current TAGMI predictions SWC Small scale irrigation Small reservoirs
  • 7. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 1.RESULTS: current TAGMI predictions Soil Water Conservation # districts (%) Cropland (% ) Total BF: 2846941ha Total GH: 5102661 ha Strength of prediction Burkina Faso High/Med/Low 51/25/25 61/20/20 Low Ghana High/Med/Low 45/39/16 48/6/46 Low Small reservoirs Burkina Faso High/Med/Low: 50/32/18 47/20/32 Low Ghana High/Med/Low: 62/15/23 58/36/7 Low
  • 8. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 1.RESULTS: current TAGMI predictions Example data input and impact
  • 9. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 2. RESULTS: testing TAGMI for small reservoirs MAPS……. Decision in SR may not be done at HH level; mainly in 80s
  • 10. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 2. RESULTS: testing TAGMI for Soil water conservation TAGMI predictions match actual adoption rates for about half of the provinces
  • 11. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta LESSONS • Data on social-human layers are critical, but rarely available • High agreement between factors affecting outscaling across technologies, countries and basins • The importance of Best Practice In Implementation (‘Due diligence’ )to achieve successful outscaling • There is opportunity for outscaling of SWC , smallholder irrigation and small reservoirs but prediction strength is low
  • 12. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta RECOMMENDATIONS TO POTENTIAL USERS • Consider carefully weighting of factors contributing for success and the implications on map output • Opportunities to verify a/o cross check TAGMI prediction • Improve data especially on human-social domains • Identify potential geographic spaces only half the story: more effort in design of appropriate implementation
  • 13. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta www.seimapping.org/TAGMI We thank all contributors: absent colleagues farmers, boundary partners and participants in consultations and events VBDC colleagues, and LBDC and L1 colleagues funders