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Landscape level hydrological modeling                                      &                   Farm-scale modelingFred Kiz...
Landscape level hydrological modelingFred Kizito, Katrien Descheemaeker, Sabine Douxchamps   3 / 7 / 2012
Study objectivesModeling hydrological dynamics to quantify water fluxes for achieving optimal crop‐livestock productivity ...
Study sitesLandscape hydrological modeling:   o Conduct sub‐basin water balance thresholds o Develop a water allocations f...
Methods• Baseline characterization has been conducted in   target sites at the household level• Tools:                   a...
Crop water use trends in GolingaData Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture, GhanaProduction estimates and Regional Crop...
Water, crops and livestock  distribution for Golinga                                                                      ...
Water Balance Components for            Golinga                                    1200                                   ...
ConclusionMilestones:• Cropping density and livestock distribution ascertained for all study   sites; Water balance thresh...
Farm-scale modelingFred Kizito, Katrien Descheemaeker, Sabine Douxchamps   3 / 7 / 2012
ObjectivesIdentify and evaluate promising interventions for improved farm productivity•    Extrapolating field results in ...
NPK      NPK        NPK                                                                        Options                    ...
NUANCES-FARMSIM: farm-scale modeling approach                      Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • VoltaTittone...
APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator)      Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Constraint analysisExample of feedbase in villages around Golinga reservoir                                               ...
Scenario AnalysisBaseline situation• 1.5 ha farm• household of 8 people• crops: millet, sorghum and cowpea intercropped• n...
Scenario Analysis                                          Baseline            Animals sold (10y)                  5‐6    ...
Scenario Analysis                                          Baseline             Manure                                    ...
Scenario Analysis                                          Baseline             Manure        Crop residue                ...
Scenario Analysis                                  Baseline           Manure          Crop         Sell cow, buy          ...
Scenario AnalysisDiscussion support tool                         Learning tool            Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekon...
Simulation experiment    Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Simulation experiment Lessons: - Fertilizer increases average yield, but also production risk - Information on risk is use...
Tradeoff analysisUnderstanding resource allocation decisionsResources are finite; directing them to one objectivewill pena...
Tradeoff analysis                                                        concentrates                                     ...
Tradeoff analysis                                                        concentrates                                     ...
Tradeoff analysis                                                        concentrates                                     ...
Tradeoff analysis                                                        concentrates                                     ...
Tradeoff analysis                                                        concentrates                                     ...
Tradeoff analysis                                                                concentrates                             ...
ConclusionsFarm systems models are useful toolsfor research to- Understand complex farm dynamics, including farmer    deci...
Merci pour votre attention!Thanks for your attention!Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
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Landscape level hydrological modeling & Farm-scale modeling

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CPWF Volta Science Workshop: Integrated Rainwater Management in Crop-Livestock Systems

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Transcript of "Landscape level hydrological modeling & Farm-scale modeling"

  1. 1. Landscape level hydrological modeling & Farm-scale modelingFred Kizito, Katrien Descheemaeker, Sabine Douxchamps 3 / 7 / 2012
  2. 2. Landscape level hydrological modelingFred Kizito, Katrien Descheemaeker, Sabine Douxchamps 3 / 7 / 2012
  3. 3. Study objectivesModeling hydrological dynamics to quantify water fluxes for achieving optimal crop‐livestock productivity o Assess sub‐basin scale water balance thresholds at target  sites o Develop water allocations framework in target sites o Recommend best‐fit integrated rainwater management  strategies that maximize productivity Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  4. 4. Study sitesLandscape hydrological modeling:   o Conduct sub‐basin water balance thresholds o Develop a water allocations framework in target sites  o Assess water productivity in specific crop‐livestock systems Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  5. 5. Methods• Baseline characterization has been conducted in  target sites at the household level• Tools:                   and   • SWAT hydrological modeling is physically based – Weather, soil properties, topography, vegetation,  and land management practices data sets• DEM: – Used at 90 m resolution – Watershed delineation; Stream network Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  6. 6. Crop water use trends in GolingaData Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture, GhanaProduction estimates and Regional Crop Acreage data for 1992 to 2010 ‐ Complemented and verified with V2 Household survey data Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 6
  7. 7. Water, crops and livestock  distribution for Golinga Source: Processed from FAO  Source: Ramankutty et al, 2000 Geo‐portal data Processed from Global Croplands database; ‐Not checked against V2 HH data  Complemented with Ghana MoFA Data  and V2 Household data Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 7
  8. 8. Water Balance Components for  Golinga 1200 Simulated Warm‐up Calibration Validation 1000 Rainfall (mm) and Discharge (mm) 800 600 400 200 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rainfall (mm) Surface Water Discharge (mm) Groundwater Discharge (mm) Percolation (mm) Evapotranspiration (mm) Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 8
  9. 9. ConclusionMilestones:• Cropping density and livestock distribution ascertained for all study  sites; Water balance thresholds calculated for all study sites• Currently developing crop‐livestock water productivity maps for all  target sites• Landscape outputs from water allocations and water balance will  complement farm‐level flows analysisConclusion• Hydrological analysis indicated that reservoirs play a critical role in  maintaining storage and reducing surface runoff losses at sub‐ basin scale Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  10. 10. Farm-scale modelingFred Kizito, Katrien Descheemaeker, Sabine Douxchamps 3 / 7 / 2012
  11. 11. ObjectivesIdentify and evaluate promising interventions for improved farm productivity• Extrapolating field results in space and time• Aggregate field level outputs to farm level• Scenario analysis: exploring options• Risk analysis• Tradeoff analysis (tradeoffs in resource allocation)• Identifying issues for further (field) research• Discussion and decision support tool: informing the  innovation platform Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  12. 12. NPK NPK NPK Options Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • VoltaGiller et al. 2010
  13. 13. NUANCES-FARMSIM: farm-scale modeling approach Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • VoltaTittonell et al. (2007) Fld Crops Res. 100, 348-368; Rufino et al. (2007) Livestock Sci. 112, 273-287; Chikowo et al. (2008) Ag. Syst.97, 151-166; Tittonell et al. (2009) Ag. Syst. 101, 1-19; van Wijk et al. (2009) Ag. Syst. 102, 89-101; Tittonell et al. (2010) E. J Agron.32, 10-21.
  14. 14. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  15. 15. Constraint analysisExample of feedbase in villages around Golinga reservoir In-house feeding Grazing Feed gap Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  16. 16. Scenario AnalysisBaseline situation• 1.5 ha farm• household of 8 people• crops: millet, sorghum and cowpea intercropped• no crop residue stored for cattle• 3 breeding cows, sells at 4-5 years, herd of 8-10 Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • VoltaAdapted from McDonald (2010)
  17. 17. Scenario Analysis Baseline Animals sold (10y) 5‐6 Animals on hand 12‐13 Forage deficit 7000 Wet season labour +50 Cattle revenue 34000 Gross Margin* 515000 Cash balance ‐3000 * - including home consumption Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • VoltaAdapted from McDonald (2010)
  18. 18. Scenario Analysis Baseline Manure      (4 t/ha) Animals sold (10y) 5‐6 6‐7 Animals on hand 12‐13 13 Forage deficit 7000 6000 Wet season labour +50 +20 Cattle revenue 34000 37000 Gross Margin 515000 637000 Cash balance ‐3000 109000 Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • VoltaAdapted from McDonald (2010)
  19. 19. Scenario Analysis Baseline Manure      Crop residue  (4 t/ha) harvesting Animals sold (10y) 5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 Animals on hand 12‐13 13 13 Forage deficit 7000 6000 3000 Wet season labour +50 +20 +10 Cattle revenue 34000 37000 41000 Gross Margin 515000 637000 671000 Cash balance ‐3000 109000 140000 Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • VoltaAdapted from McDonald (2010)
  20. 20. Scenario Analysis Baseline Manure        Crop  Sell cow, buy  (4 t/ha) residue  10 sheep &  harvesting fatten Calves sold (10y) 5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 6‐7 Cattle on hand 12‐13 13 13 9‐10 Forage deficit 7000 6000 3000 4400 Wet season labour +50 +20 +10 +50 Livestock revenue 34000 37000 41000 96000 Gross Margin 515000 637000 671000 739000 Cash balance ‐3000 109000 140000 205000 Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • VoltaAdapted from McDonald (2010)
  21. 21. Scenario AnalysisDiscussion support tool Learning tool Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • VoltaAdapted from McDonald (2010)
  22. 22. Simulation experiment Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  23. 23. Simulation experiment Lessons: - Fertilizer increases average yield, but also production risk - Information on risk is useful for insurance providers (partner in the IPs?) Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta - Water and nutrient use efficiency are interlinked
  24. 24. Tradeoff analysisUnderstanding resource allocation decisionsResources are finite; directing them to one objectivewill penalize other objectives• Labor: weeding vs. marketing produce• Cash: fertilizers vs. hiring labor for weeding• Crop residues: soil organic matter vs. livestock feeding Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  25. 25. Tradeoff analysis concentrates fertilizer Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  26. 26. Tradeoff analysis concentrates fertilizer Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  27. 27. Tradeoff analysis concentrates fertilizer Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  28. 28. Tradeoff analysis concentrates fertilizer Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  29. 29. Tradeoff analysis concentrates fertilizer Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  30. 30. Tradeoff analysis concentrates fertilizer Lessons: - Tradeoff analysis helps us in systems understanding - LinkedAndes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta with understanding of socio-institutional settings (e.g. market) and farmers’ objectives, this can be used to design well-adapted interventions
  31. 31. ConclusionsFarm systems models are useful toolsfor research to- Understand complex farm dynamics, including farmer decision making- Identify topics for further (field) researchfor development through- Assisting in the development of adapted interventions- Generation of information for discussion support (in IPs)! Need for high quality input data Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  32. 32. Merci pour votre attention!Thanks for your attention!Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
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