Introduction to Global Drivers (CPWF GD-TWG workshop, September 2011)

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By Simon Cook. As part of a CPWF September 2011 workshop in Thailand regarding global drivers. We have divided driver types into five categories:
1. Demographic/Social,
2. Economic,
3. Political/Institutional/Legal,
4. Environmental/Climate change,
5. Technological/ Innovations

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Introduction to Global Drivers (CPWF GD-TWG workshop, September 2011)

  1. 1. Global drivers TWG By Simon Cook Chiang Mai, Thailand – September 2011
  2. 2. Overview• Background insights form BFPs• Rationale: Why we need to know about GDs• Framework: How to organize info
  3. 3. Background from theBFPs and elsewhere
  4. 4. The basin focal projects• A global picture in 10 basins, LAC (2), Africa(4) and Asia(4)• Diverse conditions – Biophysical, economic, political• 10 teams, multi-disciplinary• Started looking for water poverty – …ended up defining inter-related systems of water, food and development
  5. 5. Simple story:• River basins provide a diversity of ecosystem services: – provisioning regulating…• Most of these are understood individually, to a degree – Food systems, hydrology, environmental flows, aquaculture….• Societies exploit these ES as they develop – Appropriate, invest, exchange, ruin…• …development is influenced BY ESs …development modifies ESs.• This represents opportunities and risks
  6. 6. Put another way…
  7. 7. 1 Hydrology matters Water: a fundamental but uncertain resource Dry season flow (mcm/cap)0.00140.0012 0.0010.00080.00060.00040.0002 0 Ganges Indus Karkheh Limpopo Mekong Niger Nile Sao Fran. Volta Yellow From CSIRO analysis
  8. 8. Distributionvaries widely
  9. 9. Nile• Egypt needs every drop [from Ethiopia]
  10. 10. Ganges• Uncontrolled groundwater use GW pumps in Indus- Ganges basin Photos: Fred Pearce Map: Sharma et al, 2009
  11. 11. Mekong In most places this flood would be a problem…..
  12. 12. To these people, flood = fish
  13. 13. But no simple link of water with poverty 5,000 4,000 Bangladesh Bolivia Brazil 3,000 GNI ($US/cap) Burkina Faso China Colombia 2,000 Egypt, Arab Rep. Ethiopia India 1,000 Thailand Vietnam World 0 0.00E+00 2.00E-05 4.00E-05 6.00E-05 8.00E-05 1.00E-04 Water availability (km3/cap)
  14. 14. …even in very dry areas 5,000 4,000 Bangladesh Bolivia Brazil 3,000GNI ($US/cap) Burkina Faso China Colombia 2,000 Egypt, Arab Rep. Ethiopia India 1,000 Thailand Vietnam World 0 0.00E+00 1.00E-06 2.00E-06 3.00E-06 4.00E-06 5.00E-06 Water availability (km3/cap)
  15. 15. 2 Water productivity very low over most areas Wpr (estimated potential) YR IGB Mekong Nile Limpopo Volta Niger
  16. 16. 3 Institutions are keySao Francisco basin2 worlds..haves and have-nots
  17. 17. Limpopo These farmers have access to water
  18. 18. These farmers do not …
  19. 19. 4 Basins move along a development trajectory Niger Agriculture as % of GDP Volta Nile Limpopo IGB Mekong Karkheh Yellow Andes São Francisco Income Rural poverty
  20. 20. …so the major issues vary according to position [as well as ecosystem entitlements] Niger Agriculture onlyAgriculture as % of GDP Extreme poverty Low WR development (no irrigation) Volta Complex LLH support (Livestock and fish Nile dominate) may Limpopo IGB Some sectors moving Pressure on others Agriculture ‘left behind?’ Mekong Yellow Increased vulnerability Karkheh Markets very active Rural poor in pockets Andes Improved potential Sao Fran for ecosystem services Rural poverty
  21. 21. Agriculturecontribution to GDP(%) ....Problems... Gross National Income
  22. 22. Agriculturecontribution to GDP(%) ... Opportunities Basics need Meeting urgent demand growth Emerging need for sustainability Increasing Role for Institutions Providing basics Big invest in agric. Protecting existing support Resource-sharing & protection Benefit-sharing (trading) Invest in agricultural basics Developing pathways out of Demand management farming Supply-chain management Gross National Income
  23. 23. A look at some of the drivers: General economic growth 80 Burkina Faso General 70 Ethiopia and direction BangladeshContribution of agriculture to GDP growth (%) Burkina Faso in agricultural Bolivia 60 phase of Brazil development India 50 Ethiopia India and Bangladesh 40 transitioning to higher value 30 activities Brazil strong growth in the 60’s and in recent years to emerge as 20 an industrial economy Bolivia emerging 10 slowly after decades of low 0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Per capita GNI (US$)
  24. 24. PopulationData fromCIESIN
  25. 25. Data fromCIESIN
  26. 26. GCC Crop Impacts for African Countries PRELIMINARY RESULTS 15.00 GCC 10.00 Major new uncertainty 5.00 Oats 0.00 Potato Ethiopia Kenya Niger Senegal Bean, CommonCrop Loss/Gain Wheat, common -5.00 Barley Maize Cacao -10.00 Sorghum (low altitude) Perennial soybean -15.00 -20.00 -25.00 Countries From Ramirez et al, 2011
  27. 27. From Sharma et al, 2010
  28. 28. Rationale: why analyze global drivers?
  29. 29. Rationale: why define global drivers?3 good reasons to study GDs 3 good reasons not to• Widespread influence • Uncertain relevance – helps understand global – “Does it really matter to the importance of what is known BDC?” in basins • Additional complexity• GDs influence BDCs – Some models seem to have a – Reduce some uncertainty life of their own• Changes in BDCs may • Difficult to combine represent responses of multiple concepts regional / global importance – Quant/qual…mutliple – Is PES a ‘global’ solution? objective…
  30. 30. Framework:Organizing ideas about global drivers
  31. 31. Framework relevance Drivers Basins Is development in Basins affected by global drivers?Do BDCs support change of regional or global importance?
  32. 32. Framework: Concepts1 Analyze 2 Identifydrivers: responses to•Population drivers in basins•Economic •Scenarios…•GCC •Learning•Political processes•Techno... •Changes 3 Relate to system resilience
  33. 33. Framework Impacts and change 3 places we can help Drivers act on river basin systems Change Consequences realizedBasin charateristics Response [Innovation?]
  34. 34. Framework: Identifying targets Problematic Institutions Instruments Science behavioursUncertainty Ignorance Families Norms Situation analysis Cannot Farmer Regulations manage organizations Scenario variability Policy (e.g. analysisCognitive Unable to Supply chain food, waterproblems agree actors security) Technology Law Municipalities SystemLack of motive Short-termism Valuation analysis/designfor change Ministries Local only Micro-financeLack of Can’t invest Micro-inscapacity Can’t organize Supply chains
  35. 35. Framework: Identifying targets Problematic Institutions Instruments Science behavioursUncertainty Ignorance Families Norms Situation analysis Cannot Farmer Regulations manage organizations Scenario variability Policy (e.g. analysisCognitive Unable to Supply chain food, waterproblems agree actors security) Technology Law Municipalities SystemLack of motive Short-termism Valuation analysis/designfor change Ministries Local only Micro-financeLack of Can’t invest Micro-inscapacity Can’t organize Linking components to enable Supply chains CHANGE
  36. 36. Framework Process• First ideas – Draft (very rough) – done• Workshop (now!) – to expand concepts• Re-draft framework, reorganize• Forum – Present ideas to a broader audience• Re-draft framework – Present to CPMT. Decide how to proceed
  37. 37. Agenda for next 3 days• Information sharing: – “Basins meet GDs, GDs meet basins.”• Future scenarios for basins – Let your mind run free for a few hours• Putting GDs in the CPWF harness – “This is all very interesting. What does it mean for the CPWF?”

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