Climate Change:!   Global State of Play & Climate Finance vis-à-visRegional & Local Challenges! Belynda Petrie, 12 Novembe...
Outline!•  State of Play: COP 17"   –    Political realities"   –    Challenges for Durban"   –    Outcome filters"   –    ...
“We go to Durban with no illusion at all that it will be awalk in the park. On the contrary, we are fully aware that in so...
Political Realities!Developed Countries!•  Japan, Canada, Russia, Australia: no Kyoto 2CP, emission   pledges in single ag...
Political Realities!Developing Countries!•  China, India: no new (or legal) obligations for them (without USA or   Kyoto 2...
Durban’s Challenge!•  Range: 35-40 decisions requiring action at Durban: Not all   are priorities/deal breakers•  Balance ...
Durban Outcome Filters!•  Does it address the emissions gaps?•  Does it address the finance/means of   implementation gap?...
Ambition !•  Process for clarification of pledges and scaling up   ambition. Process to ratchet up (not down)   commitment...
State of Play -LCA!•  MRV: 5 Non papers/2 Co-facilitators texts•  Shared Vision: 1 Facilitator Non paper•  REDD: 1 Facilit...
Mitigation /MRV!•  Guidelines and process for biennial reports;•  Revised National Communications;•  International Assessm...
Adaptation!Direct Package!•  Adaptation Committee: Operationalise,   governance (elections) and institutional linkages   w...
Finance!Direct Package!•  Operationalisation of the Green Climate Fund (COP)•  Long-term sources and scale of finance•  Op...
Green Climate Fund!•  Top down or bottom up process•  What/how should nations/sub-regions   define country ownership?•  Wo...
Green Climate Fund!•  Complementarity & Coherence discussion•  Scale discussions•  Location discussions•  Programmatic dis...
Way Forward!•  Roads to Busan and Durban do not   intersect;•  Outcome will remain as distinct processes;•  Reclaim space ...
!       What is Climate Finance?! Outline	                                      !Aims to redress the climate change proble...
Forest	          Congo	  Basin	      Global	                                                   Carbon	          Forest	  F...
Global Environment                    	          Facility (GEF) Trust Fund                    	               – CC Focal A...
Global Environment Facility :                                   !                   	       Least Developed Countries Fund...
LDCF Project Distribution!
Global Environment Facility:                                       !                        	             Special Climate ...
SCCF Distribution!
World Bank Climate Investment      Funds: Pilot                  	   Programme for                  	         Climate Resi...
Adapta:on	  Fund	                      Adaptation Fund !Established by the Kyoto Protocol (KP) under the UNFCCC to finance...
Accessing the Climate Funds                         Outline	   !Fund Criteria:!•  General climate change knowledge and   i...
Regional challenges: the adaptation            imperative!  IPCC,	  2007	  
Regional challenges: the adaptation            imperative!Number and percentage of category 4 & 5 cyclones in theSouth Ind...
Key Message ..... !!Longer       Climate          Moreduration     change        frequent             signals!dry spells  ...
Spatial Assessment!•  Southern Africa – shared but widely   divergent vulnerabilities  –  Climate systems  –  Natural reso...
Spatial anlysis & vulnerability!Exposure	                                          Vulnerability	                      Ada...
Vulnerability = exposure x sensitivity!Exposure	  •    Rainfall	  variaGon	                                   X	       Sen...
Spatial ImpactAnalysis – !!currentconditions!	  
Spatial ImpactAnalysis – !!2050!!
A scenario-based apporach!                                      Climate Futures!                            Moderately wet...
CC!
Climate Change in the Limpopo !•  Geophysical location = highly variable climate, prone to drought;•  High rainfall variab...
Climate Change in the Limpopo !•  Water pollution emanating from coal mining in Mpumulanga, urban and   industrial polluta...
Transboundary & Futures issues!•  Because	  the	  Limpopo	  Province	  is	  bounded	  by	  three	  other	     sovereign	  ...
Beyond Durban?	  "Global:!                       Local/Domestic:!•  Influence                   "•  Evidence             	...
Climate change: Global state of play and climate finance vis-à-vis regional and local challenges
Climate change: Global state of play and climate finance vis-à-vis regional and local challenges
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Climate change: Global state of play and climate finance vis-à-vis regional and local challenges

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Presented by Belynda Petrie at the International Forum on Water and Food (IFWF), South Africa, 14-17 November 2011.

The International Forum on Water and Food (IFWF) is the premier gathering of water and food scientists working on improving water management for agricultural production in developing countries.

The CGIAR Challenge Program for Water and Food (CPWF) represents one of the most comprehensive investments in the world on water, food and environment research.The Forum explores how the CPWF research-for-development (R4D) approach can address water and food challenges through a combination of process, institutional and technical innovations.

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Climate change: Global state of play and climate finance vis-à-vis regional and local challenges

  1. 1. Climate Change:! Global State of Play & Climate Finance vis-à-visRegional & Local Challenges! Belynda Petrie, 12 November 2011
  2. 2. Outline!•  State of Play: COP 17" –  Political realities" –  Challenges for Durban" –  Outcome filters" –  Ambition" –  Long term Cooperative Action " –  Mitigation/MRV" –  Adaptation" –  Finance"•  Climate Finance""•  Regional and basin Risk & Vulnerability to CC" "
  3. 3. “We go to Durban with no illusion at all that it will be awalk in the park. On the contrary, we are fully aware that in some areas the national interest of Parties will make consensus a challenge.” President Jacob Zuma, 31 October 2011
  4. 4. Political Realities!Developed Countries!•  Japan, Canada, Russia, Australia: no Kyoto 2CP, emission pledges in single agreement under Convention, move what works from KP to Convention;•  USA:  symmetry with emerging developing country economies; no legally binding agreement under Convention;•  EU, Environmental Integrity Group:  preference for a single legal agreement, possible 2CP if “wider agreement” to a transitional arrangement with conditions, namely: LULUCF rules, surplus AAU’s, markets, and a time frame for concluding a single ( merging the tracks) legally binding agreement (LBI) in the future, with all major emitters;•  EIT’s, Turkey: access to finance, technology & capacity building support;
  5. 5. Political Realities!Developing Countries!•  China, India: no new (or legal) obligations for them (without USA or Kyoto 2CP or equity)•  SIDS, LDC, Africa: increase ambition, 2 track legal on all major emitters & balanced treatment of adaptation, resolution on finance package, keeping well below 2 degrees;•  BASIC: 2CP with comparability for the US under the Convention, CBDR, equity, comprehensive, ambitious and fair outcome;•  Bolivia & ALBA: increase ambition, mother earth rights ; 2CP; no markets;•  OPEC: adequate treatment of “response measures” under both tracks.
  6. 6. Durban’s Challenge!•  Range: 35-40 decisions requiring action at Durban: Not all are priorities/deal breakers•  Balance between Bali and Cancun: Operationalisation of institutions and governance, while resolving outstanding issues and not just being a organistional Conference.•  Balance between the 2 tracks: Resolving and making progress on the 2CP, while addressing the future legal form of the outcome under the LCA/Convention (process/ substance);•  Balance within each track:! –  Kyoto: sequencing issue; resolution of “targets then rules” or “rules then targets;” –  Convention: ensure balanced progress on all issues, technical progress on agreed issues & political progress on unfinished business.
  7. 7. Durban Outcome Filters!•  Does it address the emissions gaps?•  Does it address the finance/means of implementation gap?•  Does it influence the outcome of the 2CP?•  Is it immediate, is there a timeframe/process?•  What is the level of detail required?•  How does it relate to the future Legally Binding Instrument (LBI)?•  Is it a red-line for Africa?•  How does it relate to the overall & other packages?•  Who are the key players?
  8. 8. Ambition !•  Process for clarification of pledges and scaling up ambition. Process to ratchet up (not down) commitments at any time;•  Global temperature goals, linked to global means of implementation goals; (emissions and finance gaps);•  Scope and modalities of the Review, including gap analysis;•  Future of the KP 2CP;•  Mandate for legally binding instrument by 2014/15 on LCA track with legally binding commitments in line with the science.
  9. 9. State of Play -LCA!•  MRV: 5 Non papers/2 Co-facilitators texts•  Shared Vision: 1 Facilitator Non paper•  REDD: 1 Facilitator Non paper•  Adaptation: 1 draft Decision text•  Finance: 2 Co-facilitators consolidated texts•  Sectoral Approaches: Facilitators Note•  Technology: 1 draft Decision text•  Markets: Compilation text•  Response Measures: Facilitator’s Note•  Review: Non paper
  10. 10. Mitigation /MRV!•  Guidelines and process for biennial reports;•  Revised National Communications;•  International Assessment and Review (IAR) and Annex I accounting;•  International Consultation and Review (ICR);•  Operationalise the Registry;•  MRV of support;•  Common Reporting Framework (CRF)
  11. 11. Adaptation!Direct Package!•  Adaptation Committee: Operationalise, governance (elections) and institutional linkages within adaptation issues (Framework, NWP, L&D)•  Adaptation Framework: How to advance work on footnoted thematic areas and avoid issue fragmentation;•  National Adaptation Plans: Agreement of process, scope and support.Linked Package!•  Finance/GCF (numbers and institutions/process)
  12. 12. Finance!Direct Package!•  Operationalisation of the Green Climate Fund (COP)•  Long-term sources and scale of finance•  Operationalisation of the Standing Committee on Finance•  Review of the Adaptation Fund (SBI)Linked Package!•  Mitigation by developing countries: MRV•  REDD (GCF window)•  Links with the Technology Mechanism and Adaptation Committee•  Registry•  Common Reporting Framework/MRV of support•  Sectoral Approaches: International transport levy•  Markets: link to LCA and KP discussions
  13. 13. Green Climate Fund!•  Top down or bottom up process•  What/how should nations/sub-regions define country ownership?•  Work on national level processes, direct accesss modalities•  Work on Board mechanism for stakeholder engagement and Board Observers•  African Green Fund @ AfDB
  14. 14. Green Climate Fund!•  Complementarity & Coherence discussion•  Scale discussions•  Location discussions•  Programmatic discussions•  Allocations and nature of support (loans/ grants/leverage)•  Safeguards and fudiciary standards
  15. 15. Way Forward!•  Roads to Busan and Durban do not intersect;•  Outcome will remain as distinct processes;•  Reclaim space & ownership of climate/aid/ finance discussion;•  Engage with the AGF report and follow-up process under G20;•  What scope for domestic resource mobilisation?
  16. 16. ! What is Climate Finance?! Outline   !Aims to redress the climate change problem in non-culpable regions &vulnerable countriesBased on attempts to quantify the extent of the problem- response cost vsBAUIntention that it is additional to ODAUS$100 billion/year by 2020– sources: public & private, bilateral &multilateral, alternative sources of finance (AGF: mix of new publicsources, a scaling-up of existing public sources and increased privateflows); and 30bn ‘fast start’ finance 2010-2012Balanced allocation between mitigation and adaptationMultiplicity of funds
  17. 17. Forest   Congo  Basin   Global   Carbon   Forest  Fund   Energy   Partnership   Efficiency   Facility   and  RE  Fund   Strategic  Priority  on   Adapta:on  (pilot  &   demo  projects  for  Pilot   Scaled  up  RE   Forest   scaling)  50m  USD;  22  Programme   Programme   Investment   projects,  fully  disbursed  for  Climate   for  low   Programme  Resilience     income   countries   Designated investment resource
  18. 18. Global Environment   Facility (GEF) Trust Fund   – CC Focal Area !  Objectives Help developing countries contribute to the overall objectives of the UNFCCC. Both mitigation and adaptation.Activities Renewable energy; EE; sustainable transport; Adaptation – initial studies, vulnerability assessments and pilot projects (under SPA).Eligibility Must conform to eligibility criteria set by COP; must be eligible to borrow from the WB.Funding US$3 billion disbursed to date, mainly mitigation. SPA has spent $50m on 22 projects – predominantly capacity building in vulnerable areas.
  19. 19. Global Environment Facility : !   Least Developed Countries Fund   (LDCF) !  Objectives" Addresses most urgent and immediate needs of countries whose economic and geophysical characteristics make them especially vulnerable to the impact of climate change.Activities" Focus on NAPAs: 1.  Preparation – identify priority needs and activities 2.  Implementation – design, develop, implement projectsEligibility" All LDCsFunding" 31 contributing countries; $324 million pledged; $ 177m on 47 projects. Co financing mobilised: $550m.
  20. 20. LDCF Project Distribution!
  21. 21. Global Environment Facility: !   Special Climate Change Fund   (SCCF) !"   Implement long & short term adaptation measures-increase" resilience of national development sectors. Catalyst to leverage finance from other sources. Supports adaptation and technology transfer in all developing country parties to the UNFCCC.Activities" Wide range including WRM; land management; agriculture; health; infrastructure; ecosystems; integrated coastal zone management. Generally capacity building within sectors, implementation of measures.Eligibility" All non-Annex 1 countries, emphasis on most vulnerable. Focus is on additional costs imposed by CC.Funding" $180 million pledged; 31 projects: $177M Co-financing mobilised: $840m; 14 contributing countries
  22. 22. SCCF Distribution!
  23. 23. World Bank Climate Investment Funds: Pilot   Programme for   Climate Resilience (PPCR) !   Mozambique, NigerAfrican pilot countries: Zambia, – USD 40-60m (including preparation) per country. –  Stage 1 develops a Strategic Program for Climate Resilience –  Stage 2 implements the SPCR –  Technical assistance to integrate climate resilience into National Development Plans –  Scaling up public/private sector investments in NDPs that address climate resilience
  24. 24. Adapta:on  Fund   Adaptation Fund !Established by the Kyoto Protocol (KP) under the UNFCCC to financeconcrete adaptation projects and programmes in developingcountries. Financed with 2% of the Certified Emission Reduction (CERs)issued for projects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other.•  USD 193m (65% CER proceeds, 35% donor contributions)•  Scale to USD 300-415 million; mid range estimate is USD 356m funded adaptation projects by end of 2012.•  Structure and criteria necessitates further capacity building:•  Strong evidence base required for proposals•  Managed by the GEF – with new structure proposed at Copenhagen•  Under negotiation for over 8 years – but operational  
  25. 25. Accessing the Climate Funds Outline   !Fund Criteria:!•  General climate change knowledge and integration to policy and with development Capacity   plans should  be  •  Project development and management built  in  local  •  Application procedures ins:tu:ons  •  Implementing entities enable direct access•  Regional and national implementing agencies Address  issue   entities & multilaterals: the water sector has opportunity to organise coherent regional of  domes:c   institutional arrangements – direct access•  Strengthening of the evidence base resource  •  Strengthened capacity to develop competitive alloca:on   funding proposals
  26. 26. Regional challenges: the adaptation imperative! IPCC,  2007  
  27. 27. Regional challenges: the adaptation imperative!Number and percentage of category 4 & 5 cyclones in theSouth Indian Ocean over the last 30+ years(Source: Webster et al. 2005) 1975-1989 1990-2004 Number % Number % 23 18 50 34
  28. 28. Key Message ..... !!Longer Climate Moreduration change frequent signals!dry spells and intense(droughts) extreme rainfalls Longer duration heat-waves
  29. 29. Spatial Assessment!•  Southern Africa – shared but widely divergent vulnerabilities –  Climate systems –  Natural resources and ecosystems –  Farming and other land-use system –  Social systems, economic strengths, weaknesses•  Adaptation planning must be spatially explicit
  30. 30. Spatial anlysis & vulnerability!Exposure   Vulnerability   Adap:ve  capacity  Sensi:vity   Poten:al  impact   2    analyses   2008   2050  
  31. 31. Vulnerability = exposure x sensitivity!Exposure  •  Rainfall  variaGon   X   Sensi:vity   X   •  %  land  under  irrigaGon  •  Cyclone  risk   •  Human  use  of  net  primary  •  Flood  risk   producGvity  •  Standardised  precip  index   •  Crowding  of  agric.  Land  •  Fire  frequency   •  Length  of  growing  period  •  AddiGonal  popn.  density   •  Early  soil  moisture  •  GCM  precip  &  temp     •  Own  food  producGon  sys.  •  Max  temp  change   •  Dietary  diversity  •  Loss  of  cropland   •  Water  stress  •  Sea-­‐level  rise  
  32. 32. Spatial ImpactAnalysis – !!currentconditions!  
  33. 33. Spatial ImpactAnalysis – !!2050!!
  34. 34. A scenario-based apporach! Climate Futures! Moderately wetting Significantly drying • 6% to 8% growth • 6% to 8% growthUneven   Integrated   • 0% to 10% increased • 0% to 15% rainfall decreased rainfallDevelopmentFutures! • 3% to 5% growth • 3% to 5% growth • 0% to 10% increased • 0% to 15% rainfall decreased rainfall
  35. 35. CC!
  36. 36. Climate Change in the Limpopo !•  Geophysical location = highly variable climate, prone to drought;•  High rainfall variability & temperatures = low rainfall conversion to runoff;•  Core area of atmospheric heating thus agriculture difficult (needs to be supported by irrigation);•  Exposed to cyclones in the southern Mozambique channel;•  Population growth continues to be rapid;•  Much of the rural population lives in extended villages, with poor levels of sanitation and supporting infrastructure;•  Mine exploration and mining activities are increasing rapidly – platinum (on the Eastern and Western limbs of the Bushveld Igneous Complex (BIC), coal measures are increasingly being exploited in the western portion of the Limpopo Basin;•  Development of coal resources will continue west into Botswana and westwards for decades;
  37. 37. Climate Change in the Limpopo !•  Water pollution emanating from coal mining in Mpumulanga, urban and industrial pollutants from Gauteng have substantially degraded the quality of the water resource, effectively reducing the water available for other uses;•  Many rural water supplies fail water quality tests with severe impacts on rural health, already challenged by poverty.•  Water is the resource limiting growth in the Basin – even mining development is contrained;•  Irrigation uptake in the province is substantial;•  Several sub-basins are closed (there is no more water to allocate) to increased allocation•  Groundwater is over-exploited, more so than anywhere else in South Africa. Consequence: groundwater levels are declining faster than anywhere else.
  38. 38. Transboundary & Futures issues!•  Because  the  Limpopo  Province  is  bounded  by  three  other   sovereign  states,  the  Province  has  more  than  its  fair  share  of   transboundary  tensions  over  shared  water  resources.    •  Agreements  over  the  management  of  water  as  part  of  a   climate  change  strategy  will  have  to  take  these  issues  into   account.      •  Important to examine the impacts of future climate changes in the context development futures –  Economic development controls demand for resources and influences vulnerability
  39. 39. Beyond Durban?  "Global:! Local/Domestic:!•  Influence "•  Evidence     •  Improved agricultural     practicesRegional:!     •  Equity•  Cooperation     •  Policy•  Equity •  Institutional•  Policy (needs evidence arrangements incl for base) direct access•  Institutional •  Domestic allocation of arrangements incl for resource direct access

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