DRIVERS  IN  THE  ANDES                                                        by  DE  BIEVRE,  Bert;  SARAVIA,  Miguel;  ...
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Drivers  of  change  in  the  Blue  Nile  Basin                                                                           ...
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!"#$%&&()#*+,%%&-*.&%+                                                                   /0+1)2&%+3&&4+5+3$*6&7"+8*9+    #...
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Global Drivers -Topic Working Group session posters @ IFWF3

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Global Drivers -Topic Working Group session posters @ IFWF3

  1. 1. DRIVERS  IN  THE  ANDES by  DE  BIEVRE,  Bert;  SARAVIA,  Miguel;  ACOSTA,  Luis,   LAGUNA YANACOCHA UBICACI N (Composit 1999) ANTES DE LAS OPERACIONES MINERAS (1992) Proyecto Proye cto Maqu i Ma qui Yanacocha Norte Relevant conditions # Proyecto Yanacocha Sur Proyecto Proyecto Pr oyecto Cerro Negro Carachugo La Quinua Very high mountains with a  lot of  people Ubicaci n antigua Laguna Yanacocha in  them AHORA (2006) Extremely variable  biophysical conditions Mountain  rivers with limited regulation N Cajamarca capacity Coordenadas Proyec ci n U TM Datum : Psad 56 Water demand at  high altitudes Traditional knowledge and  technologies to manage natural  resourcesImportant drivers Drastic increase in  urban population Free  trade agreements boostagroindustry for export Land degradation:  loss of  regulationcapacity in  mountain catchments(deforestation,  minning,  overgrazing) Climate change:  vertical  altitudinal  moves  certain,  everything  else  very  uncertainChallenges and  Opportunities The  responses  for  water  supply  and  agriculture  planning  are  recently  being  build  from  a  watersheadapproach. The response  to land degradation consider theconservation of  critycal ecosystems and  territorial  planning.  In  lower areas of  the basins:  little response For Climate Change adaptation,  nothing new  has  to becreated:  integrated water  resources  management,  integrated  catchment  management,  typically  reforestation  with  low  positive  hydrological  impact  or  even  negative  impact From  Payment  for  Environmental  Services  to  Benefits  Sharing  Mechanisms Efforts  to  update  legislation  and  institutional  framework In  absence  of  legal  framework,  municipalities  stablishpartnerships  to  management  catchment
  2. 2. !"#$%$%&()"*&"*&)%+,-./*&01/"2(&3&45%(5&6/"7./)&(*6&5%2(5&2%*6"8%*)& 0*6/H&I@&7(*&J%%>.*& ! !"#$%"&()*+(,& -.&./+&"#0%"&"+*+"& & & 9*2/.().)&"*&-+#(*&$%$+5(8%*):&/.;"%*(5&.2%*%#"2)&(*6&25"#(,.& A-.&.K.2,)&%1&,-.).&;5%(5&6/"7./)&(/.&"*L+.*2.6&(,&,-.&5%2(5&5.7.5&>& 2-(*;.&(/.&,-.&#("*&6/"7./)&"*&,-.&2/%$<5"7.),%2=&)>),.#)&%1&,-.& ,-.&1%55%B"*;&6>*(#"2)M& !"#$%$%&?()"*&"*&)%+,-./*&01/"2(@&& • A-.&(7("5("5",>&(*6&.E2".*2>&%1&5%2(5&"*$+,&(*6&%+,$+,&#(/=.,)M&,-")& & ")&(*&"#$%/,(*,&.5.#.*,&"*&2/.(8*;&(*&.*7"/%*#.*,&B-./.&1(/#./)& A-.&;/%B"*;&*+#./&%1&/+/(5&1(/#./)&/.6+2.)&$./&2($",(&5(*6& 2(*&"*7.),&"*&5%2(5&$/%6+28%*&(*6&.*.D,&1/%#&/.,+/*)&(,&(&5%2(5& (7("5("5",>@&C";*"D2(*,&"*7.),#.*,)&(/.&*..6.6&,%&"*2/.().&,-.& #(/=.,@& %7./(55&.E2".*2>&%1&)#(55<)2(5.&1(/#"*;&)>),.#):&"*25+6"*;& • N(/"(5.&$%5"2>&.*7"/%*#.*,)M&,-.).&,.*6&,%&1%2+)&%*&2/%$& "*2/.().6&B(,./<+).&.E2".*2>:&(*6&2/.(,.&#%/.&2%#$.887.& $/%6+28%*&1%/&1%%6&).2+/",>&+,&5"7.),%2=&#%/.&%O.*&%K./)&.P./& $/%6+28%*&)>),.#)@&& $(,-B(>)&%+,&%1&$%7./,>@& & • 9*2/.()"*;&*+#./&%1&B%#.*&1(/#./)M&A-.&"#$(2,)&%1&Q9N&(*6&5(%/< F5"#(,.&7(/"("5",>&(*6&(/"6",>&2%*8*+.&,%&$%).&)./"%+)& Limpopo Basin Strategic Plan for Reducing Vulnerability to Floods and Droughts. UN-HABITAT/UNEP, July 2007 ().6&#";/(8%*&B-./.&#.*&#";/(,.&,%&+/(*&(/.()&1%/&B%/=&#.(*)& 2%*),/("*,)&,%&)#(55<)2(5.&$/%6+2./)&(*6&#(>&/.)+5,&"*&5"7.),%2=& 1.2. Human settlements and population ,-(,&,-./.&(/.&#%/.&B%#(*&,(="*;&/.)$%*)""5",>&1%/&,-.&1(/#@&A-")& .2%#"*;&,-.&6%#"*(*,&(;/"2+5,+/(5&(287",>@&&9*&2%*2./,&B",-& /.R+"/.)&*.B&B(>)&"*&B-"2-&)+$$%/,&)>),.#)&(/.&$/%7"6.6&()&B%#(*& The ecosystems of the Limpopo Basin support an estimated 5,200 human settlements. Table 1 shows that 49% and 45% of these settlements are respectively in Mozambique and in South Africa, while the rest are in Botswana and Zimbabwe. ;/%B"*;&$%$+5(8%*):&,-.&6.#(*6&1%/&5"7.),%2=&$/%6+2,)&"*&,-.& Table 1: Number and distribution of human settlements in the Limpopo River Basin per country, including Total Population Distribution of Total Population 1%2+)&%*&6"K./.*,&(;/"2+5,+/(5&)>),.#)&(*6&-(7.&5"#",(8%*)&B",-& /.;"%*&2%*8*+.)&,%&/").:&$/%7"6"*;&(&-+;.&"*2.*87.&1%/&1(/#./)& /.;(/6)&,%&8#.&(7("5("5",>&(*6&5(%/@& Country No. of settlements settlements (%) (in million) Mozambique 2541 49 1.3 • 9*2/.()"*;&(;.&%1&1(/#./)M&0*&.S%6+)&%1&>%+*;&.6+2(,.6&$.%$5.&1/%#& South Africa 2355 45 10.7 ,%&"*7.),&"*&5"7.),%2=&$/%6+28%*@&F%+*,/".)&"*&C0GF&)-%+56&1%2+)& Botswana Zimbabwe 198 100 4 2 1.0 1.0 %*&)+$$5>"*;&,-."/&%B*&6.#(*6&1%/&5"7.),%2=&$/%6+2,)&(*6&#(=.& Total 5194 Data source: http://earth-info.nga.mil/gns/html/namefiles.htm; and UNDP (2003) 100 14.0 /+/(5&(/.()&#.(*)&,-(,&1%%6&$/%6+28%*&5".)&"*&,-.&-(*6)&%1&(*&(;"*;:&2.2 +).&%1&,-.&-+;.&#(/=.,&6.#(*6&"*&C%+,-&01/"2(@& Topography and climate Figure 4 shows the geographical distribution patterns of human settlements in the Limpopo River Basin. It can be observed that, firstly, all settlements are close to the river valleys, indicating the!"#$%&&()*"+$&,$%"#$-./&&$0.1#)$2*3.4$.3$)#3#4%#5$.4$Figure 2.3. !&&()*"+$1*).#3$,)&/$*2&1#$influence of the aridity in the Basin which encourages people to settle close to the stream banks. )-/"*="*;&*+#./&%1&1(/#./)&67888$/9*939:9$.4$%"#$/&;4%*.4$)#(.&43$&,$<&;%"$=,).>*$%&$%"#$1*3%$,:&&5$:*.43$.4$%"#$?&@*/2.>*4$*)%$&,$Lastly, human settlements are much denser in Mozambique and South Africa compared with Botswana and Zimbabwe.%"#$>*%>"/#4%39$$!"#$:*3%$ABC$D/$&,$).1#)$3%)#%>"$"*3$#:#1*%.&43$2#:&E$B$/9*939:9$$ Limpopo Basin Strategic Plan for Reducing Vulnerability to Floods and Droughts. UN-HABITAT/UNEP, July 2007 South Africa Livestock Products: Imports $600000000 $500000000 $400000000 $300000000 $200000000 $100000000 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 SADC World-SADC !"#$%&()*&+,-)./%)012#3,#4,(15&3,."6+"5"3/.,)3,/(",7)5##,8)9"%, Figure 4: Geographical distribution of human settlements in the Limpopo River Basin :&.)3, Data source: http://earth-info.nga.mil/gns/html/namefiles.htm A(&3$".,)3,&9"%&$",#1+&2#3,-"3.)/B,)3,/(",7)5##,:&.)3,4%#5,CDEF,/#,GFFF,$ ;&/&,.#1%*"<,(6<=="&%/(>)34#?3$&?5)+=$3.=(/5+=3&5"@+".?(/5, Figure 6: Changes in average population density in the Limpopo Basin from 1960 to 2000 ! ;&/&,.#1%*"<,(6<==HHH?3&?13"?3"/=-&/&."/.=-&/&+)./?(I,JKLMNO, 5 Data source: http://www.na.unep.net/datasets/datalist.php3 (UNEP)Figure 2.3 Topography of the Limpopo River basin The Limpopo River Basin has a strong diversity of rural versus urban population. For example, for!"#$ ).1#)$ 2*3.4$ .3$ /*.4:+$ >"*)*>%#).3#5$ 2+$ ,:*%$ &)$ ;45;:*%.4($ :*.43$ E.%"$ ()*33F$ *45$ 2;3":*459$ !"#$ two countries (Botswana and South Africa) the capital cities and some of the largest urban#G>#%.&43$ %&$ %"#$ (#4#)*::+$ ,:*%$ :*453>*#$ *)#$ %"#$ /&;4%*.4&;3$ )#(.&43$ .4$ <&;%"$ =,).>*7$ 3;>"$ *3$ %"#$ population centres reside within the basin boundaries (e.g. Gaborone, Francistown, Pretoria, Polokwane, Thohoyandou, and Witbank). Not reflected in the Basin population figures are otherH*%#)2#)(7$ <%)+5&&)%$ ?&;4%*.43$ *45$ %"#$ I)*D#432#)($ )*4(#$ %"*%$ >&/).3#3$ %"#$ 5.1.5#$ %&$ %"#$ J4D&/*%.$ large urban centres – Johannesburg, Maputo, and Bulawayo, – which are located on the fringes of0.1#)$.4$%"#$3&;%"F#*3%#)4$*)%$&,$%"#$>*%>"/#4%9$$ the Limpopo Basin and influence, or are influenced by, socio-economic events and activities within the Basin. Aside from these urban centres the Limpopo Basin is predominantly rural, i.e.!"#$ >:./*%#$ .4$ %"#$ -./&&$ 0.1#)$ 2*3.4$ )*4(#3$ ,)&/$ %)&.>*:$ 5)+$ 3*1*44*"$ *45$ "&%$ 5)+$ 3%##$ %&$ >&&:$ approximately 60% of the Basin population lives in rural areas (CGIAR, 2003).%#/#)*%;)#3$.4$%"#$/&;4%*.4&;3$*)#*39$$!"#$/*.4$(&1#)4.4($,*>%&)$,&)$)*.4,*::$*%%#)43$.4$%"#$2*3.4$.3$%"#$/&1#/#4%$&,$%"#$J4%#)%)&.>*:$K&41#)(#4>#$L&4#$MJ!KLN9$!"#$*1#)*(#$)*.4,*::$&,$%"#$2*3.4$.3$CO8$//$#)$ 1.3. Rainfall and runoff characteristics*44;/7$)*4(.4($,)&/$688$%&$A7688$//P*7$E".:#$%"#$*1#)*(#$#1*&)*%.&4$.3$A7QB8$//P*7$)*4(.4($,)&/$R88$%&$ 67S88$//P*9$ !"#$ *)#*3$ %"*%$ )#>#.1#$ %"#$ ".("#3%$ )*.4,*::$ *)#$ %"#$ /&;4%*.4&;3$ *)#*3$ .4$ <&;%"$ =,).>*7$ The endowment of the Limpopo basin with high levels of biodiversity, as well as a large number ofE".:#$ %"#$ :&E#3%$ )*.4,*::$ .3$ ,&;45$ *:&4($ %"#$ -./&&$ 0.1#)$ 2#%E##4$ L./2*2E#$ *45$ <&;%"$ =,).>*9$ =$ inhabitants who depend on it, is exposed to highly variable rainfall and runoff conditions which typically occur in the form of droughts and floods. The high variability in rainfall means that the)#:./.4*)+$>*:>;:*%.&4$&,$>*%>"/#4%$)*.4,*::$"*3$2##4$>&45;>%#5$2*3#5$&4$%"#$>&/.:#5$)*.4,*::$5*%*$.4$ climatic conditions are difficult to predict, yet floods and droughts are a direct threat to a large%"#$3>&.4($"*3#$M3##$Figure 2.4N9$$ proportion of the 14 million human inhabitants in the basin, as well as to the diverse ecosystems. ! Rainfall characteristics Figure 7 illustrates typical variations of rainfall from the annual mean of 334 mm at Beitbridge fromJoint Limpopo River Basin Study – Scoping Phase 1934 to 1984. Specifically, it is observed that in the 60 years between 1934 and 1984, only 25 yearsFinal Report – Main Report (i.e., 41 % of the years) had above normal rainfall, while 35 years (i.e, 59 % of the years) had belowJanuary 2010 Page 5 (77) normal rainfall. There is also high variability both among years with above normal rainfall and among years with below normal rainfall. This indicates the high likelihood of either floods or droughts in the Limpopo basin. However, the picture becomes complete when looking at the related flow regime of the Limpopo, which is also characterised by high variability (Figure 8). ! 7
  3. 3. !"#$%#&()!""#$%&$"()*+,)-."/,0$"1$2)$*-3."" 45"67,"/%0*8"%9":;5)%<%=,)" &;"(*4">27)5*34."?)@"#*%)54%."45"/*4@73"(%240-+47"
  4. 4. Drivers  of  change  in  the  Blue  Nile  Basin by  Matthew  McCartney  and  Tilahun  AmedeWater  and  agriculture  are  central  to  economic  development  and  poverty  alleviation  in  Ethiopia.  Drivers  of  change  pose  great  challenges  as  well  as  substantial  opportunities  for  dynamic  and  sustained  progress.       Current situation In  Ethiopia,  35  million  people  (40%  of  population)  live  in  acute  poverty   and  5-­‐6  million  need  food  support  annually   Locally: Rural poor are marginalized small holders Environment/Climate  Change Reliant on rainfed agriculture Short of land (farm size, quality and security of access) Increased  variability  in  climate  increases  vulnerability  of  the  poor   Lack access to reliable water supply (and other inputs) Low levels of agricultural productivity Locally: Extremely vulnerable to hydrological variability But significant water resources Farmers choices more difficult (125 Bm3 = 1,400 m3 per capita) Increased vulnerability Nationally: available to contribute to Possible need to change livelihood strategies (e.g. croppers to livestock) Land degradation is excessive (1.9 Bt topsoil lost annually) development Low levels of hydraulic infrastructure Basin  average  irrigation  requirement Low levels of irrigation (640 ha out of potential > 5 million) Nationally: 12,000 1983-­‐2012: 8,244 Average  annual  irrigation   2021-­‐2050:  8 ,491 Requirment    (m3ha-­‐1) 11,000 2071-­‐2100:  9 ,726 Hydrological variability costs economy 1/3 growth Considerable uncertainty about the impacts of CC 10,000 9,000 Area suitable for rainfed agriculture may decline 8,000 Adaptation strategies are essential 7,000 6,000 Investment in water infrastructure (e.g. storage) critical 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Simulated  change  in  irrigation  water   requirement  in  the  Blue  Nile  Basin   under  a  mid-­‐range    climate  scenario     (A1B)  (1983-­‐2100) Demographic/Societal Population  growth  in  Ethiopia  is  3.2%  per  year Locally: More mouths to feed Increased fragmentation of land Expansion to increasingly marginal land Political/Institutional/Legal More competition for scarce water and other natural resources Impedes the economic well being of households Ethiopia  Population Since  1988,  gradual  shift  from  controlled  to  more  market-­‐oriented  economy 180 Population  (millions) Nationally: 160 140 Locally: Agricultural land is overcrowded and over-cultivated 120 Considerable changes in prices of foods and consumer goods 100 Health infrastructure is not keeping pace with pop. growth 80 Increased opportunities for off-farm activities Current population  90  million Energy demand is growing rapidly 60 40 Land ownership vested entirely in the state; security of tenure unclear Economic and social indicators are declining 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 Uptake of technologies and practices affected by tenure Forecast Nationally: Ethiopian state is dominating force in defining access, distribution and tenure of land Internal market liberalization and devaluation of currency 10 years of negotiation have, so far, failed to deliver a comprehensive agreement on managing Nile water (Egypt and Sudan yet to sign Nile pact) Unilateral development of upstream water resources (e.g. Renaissance Dam) Considerable uncertainty about future political direction Economic/Trade  (Globalization)   Ethiopia  is  increasingly  interlinked  to  the  rest  of  the  World   Comparison  of    foreign  &  domestic   Locally: ag investment    in  Oromia State Increased demand for agricultural products Technological  Innovations   Employment opportunities Area  (ha) Projects Disproportionately benefits those with assets Domestic 149,148 2,750 Benefits greatest in areas with infrastructure/communications Foreign 1,444,308 1,001 Risk of increased marginalization of the poor The  Information  and  communications  revolution  in  Africa  boosts  growth Voice  coverage  gaps  in  Ethiopia   Nationally: Locally: Greater opportunity for economic growth Increasing access to telecommunications 5% 10% Ethiopia commodity exchange facilitates food trade and agricultural investment Better informed farmers are able to make better choices Niche overseas markets (e.g. for teff/coffee/flowers) Need to ensure information tailored to farmers needs Higher risks associated with fluctuations in global financial systems 85% Risk of domestic markets being flooded with world market commodities Foreign Direct Investment in land (and water) Nationally: Existing  coverage   Efficient  market  gap   Coverage  gap   Voice services expanding rapidly but internet more slowly In Ethiopia on ly one provider so no competition and prices still relatively high
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 Climate variability 2. Demographic pressure 3. Land pressure 4. Increasing energy demands 5. Trans-boundary issues 6. Political-Economic conditions
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  8. 8.                                                                                                      
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