Food & Water Crisis S9 Ait 3 Nov 09 V2

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A keynote address by Dr. Alain Vidal of the CPWF to the Spiritual Transformation for
Sustainable Development: a Forum focusing on Carbon Dioxide Reduction and Efficient Use of Water, hosted by Thailand's AIT on November 3-4, 2009.
The conference seeks to discuss how spiritual values can complement political and economical processes and what can be done to increase the impact of ethical values on carbon dioxide reduction and efficient use of water. The primary purpose is to find ways and means for securing a sustainable society based on the long term ethical values common to all world religions.

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  • IWRM Project has been exploring how to mitigate drought and improve livelihoods in water scarce areas of the Limpopo Basin The better one manages green water, the more one gets blue water available RWH, either in-field through water conservation techniques, or at micro-catchment level to capture run-off
  • Wetlands system called Paa Boong Paa Tham = « seasonally flooded forest » Project on Improving Mekong Water Allocation
  • All water systems around the world tend to be MUS : Some are MUS by-design When single-used design, systems often transform themselves into MUS, whether the original purpose was domestic or agriculture Multiple sources of water in Thailand farm: Roofwater, rainwater/soil moisture, run-on, groundwater shallow well or borehole, irrigation canals, ‘domestic’ piped systems, (bottled water,) fish tanks
  • Research has shown that, when developing multiple water sources and water availability, from 20 lcpd (minimum recommended) up to 100 lpcd, income derived from water could raise from US$ 40 to 300 per household and per year. ‘ multiple-use’ water ladder (with service levels of basic domestic; basic MUS; intermediate MUS; and high-level MUS)
  • Increasing water productivity and improving farmers’ livelihoods should be done along the existing green-to-blue water continuum, and not only considering one side or another of this continuum, as still too often done. Important remarks for future work and presentations: The presentation was on purpose a little provocative in its approach, and probably went too far on the concepts for most of the auditors (incl. from the Chair, a CPWF board member though). The message need therefore to be repeated, eg in the COP-15 Agriculture Day, exploring a similar approach where green-blue water continuum could be somehow replaced by climate change exposure. There was a strong interest from SEI to further work on the basis of the resilience graphs used, since CPWF Phase 1 results could provide empirical evidence of those concept being still under development at SEI and Stockholm Resilience Center.
  • Kant’s citation is about the need to move from individualism to sharing and doing together Turing’s citation is about the risk of using science only to make decisions (ie assuming that the differential equation can be solved without knowing the boundary condition)
  • Triangulation Homme – Dieu (Instance, sagesse supérieure) – Terre/eau Absence de triangulation Homme face à la Terre et doit la gérer seul face à ses pulsions (en bien et en mal), il enlève la notion d’altérité (dim humaine introduite par psys athées), ce qui témoigne de l’universel et libère l’homme. La dim de Dieu réintroduit l’altérité, de qqch de plus grand que moi, dont l’homme a nécessairement conscience face à la nature. L’homme, au lieu de référer aux interdits qu’ils se poserait, se réfère à une loi universelle extérieure à lui – déculpabilisation et paix intérieure. Cette paix permet la préoccupation de l’autre et de la Terre.
  • Religions can propose alternative to the Western fantasy of the self-built man (O. Rey, Philosopher) Quote recent Times interview of Lord Nicholas Stern
  • Paa Boong Paa Thaam is a very resilient wetland where things change all the time following the Mekong flood and recession alternance – resilience means adaptability, not invariability Tamboloma, as being with the Chimborazo sacred volcano behind the axis of communication the worlds below and above, reminds the role of paramos as regulator of water flows between the glaciers (shrinking with climate change) and the watershed
  • Food & Water Crisis S9 Ait 3 Nov 09 V2

    1. 1. The inseparable water and food crises: how can we overcome them? Alain Vidal CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food Spiritual Transformation for Sustainable Development AIT – Bangkok – 3 November 2009
    2. 2. Content <ul><li>What is causing the world’s food crisis? </li></ul><ul><li>Do we also have a water crisis? How is it related to the food crisis? </li></ul><ul><li>Can we overcome the crisis? </li></ul><ul><li>How can spiritual transformation help? </li></ul><ul><li></li></ul>
    3. 3. Food crisis: is it new? <ul><li>Kenya 1998-2000 drought: $2.4 billion losses </li></ul><ul><li>Remember! Every 5 seconds, one child younger than 10 dies of hunger </li></ul>
    4. 4. Food crisis: the hunger countdown? <ul><li>3 billion do not eat their fill </li></ul><ul><li>2 billion suffer from malnutrition </li></ul><ul><li>1 billion suffer from hunger </li></ul><ul><ul><li>75% of them are rural poor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Alleviating hunger means reducing rural poverty </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reducing rural poverty </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase farmers income and resilience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And NOT transform the rural poor into urban poor </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Water, food and GDP <ul><li>Many poor countries depend on food production as the basis of GDP (eg Sub-Saharan Africa)… </li></ul><ul><li>… and agriculture growth is strongly related to water (eg rainfall in Ethiopia) </li></ul><ul><li></li></ul>
    6. 6. What is causing the world food crisis? <ul><li>Long-term trends… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing demand - Income growth and dietary change, climate change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decreasing supply - Slow growing supply, low stocks, supply shocks </li></ul></ul><ul><li>… plus new short-term effects exacerbating long-term trends </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Speculation and biofuel production have disproportionately affected the poor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Uncertainties due to economic instability </li></ul></ul>
    7. 7. Rapid variations in world food prices What’s next?
    8. 8. Food consumption changes in emerging countries <ul><li>Less grain, more meat and dairy products </li></ul>
    9. 9. More meat in China, more milk in India Meat China India Milk China India USA USA
    10. 10. Food & feed demand will double The main driver <ul><li>How much more cereal will we have to grow to meet growing demand? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>While world population will increase by 50%... </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… changes in diets will result in almost doubling the food demand! </li></ul></ul><ul><li></li></ul>
    11. 11. Long-term effect of climate change <ul><li>Decrease of main crops production by 2050 ! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Maize 16% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rice 21% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wheat 42% </li></ul></ul>Eg rainfall change from 1990 to 2070-2100
    12. 12. Slow growing supply vs. low stocks <ul><li>Cereal stocks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>from 4 months down to 2.5 months of world consumption </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>equivalent to 1 year of China consumption (40% being owned by China) </li></ul></ul>
    13. 13. Biofuels: a significant short-term effect <ul><li>Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios compared with baseline levels (%) </li></ul><ul><li>“ A short-term threat for food security, a long-term opportunity for agricultural and rural development” (FAO State of Food and Agriculture, 2008) </li></ul>
    14. 14. What have we learnt from the 2008 crisis? <ul><li>Food commodities is another casino where people gamble </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In face of the financial crisis, speculators and hedge funds have turned towards food commodities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Food prices have risen dramatically and first affected the poor : in 2008-09, the number of undernourished raised from 920 to 1000 million (FAO) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Consequences of the economic and financial crisis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Temporarily slowed down the food demand increase, resulting in lower food prices – but too low for farmers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decreased incomes and salaries and increased smallholders’ debt, resulting in decreased investment in agriculture </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What does the future of world food prices look like? </li></ul>
    15. 15. Do we also have a water crisis? <ul><li></li></ul>
    16. 16. The driving forces? <ul><li>Growing population </li></ul><ul><li>Dietary change </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanization </li></ul><ul><li>Biofuel production </li></ul><ul><li>Need for environmental water </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>… similar to the food crisis drivers! </li></ul></ul>
    17. 17. The Water Crisis in context Vegetarian diet uses 2000 L/day - OR - Grainfed meat diet 5000 L/day 2-5L Daily 20-500L Daily 500-3000L Per Kg
    18. 18. Water consumption is increasing
    19. 19. Dietary water demand grows with GDP Lundqvist 2008 GDP US$/cap/yr
    20. 20. The water productivity challenge <ul><li>Do we have enough water resources to grow enough food and meet future demand for biofuels? </li></ul><ul><li>No… with today’s practices, doubling food production in 2050 would require to almost double agricultural water use </li></ul><ul><li>… Unless we change the way we think and act on water issues </li></ul><ul><li>A simple and ideal scenario: if we doubled the amount of food produced per m 3 of water, we would be safe </li></ul>
    21. 21. Change our thinking about water and agriculture Far from Source: Patton, 2007 <ul><li>Formulaic solutions have limited applicability </li></ul><ul><li>Past success is no guarantee of future success </li></ul><ul><li>Expertise can help but is not sufficient; relationships are key </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainty of outcome remains </li></ul>Certainty Agreement Close to Far from Close to Simple Plan, control Zone of Complexity Technically Complicated Experiment, coordinate expertise Socially Complicated Build relationships, create common ground
    22. 22. Increase the productivity of water to potential <ul><li>Higher productivity means better income, better buffer against income fluctuations due to climate variability </li></ul><ul><li>Water is often a constraint in productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Integration of livestock and fisheries to derive more value per unit of water </li></ul>Potential = 1-2 kg/m 3
    23. 23. Water productivity and resource management Before After Growth rate of Bac Lieu province (2004 – 2006) 15.7%/yr Rice-shrimp profits: ca. USD 2150/ha/year
    24. 24. <ul><li></li></ul>
    25. 25. Increasing water productivity requires external factors <ul><li>Growth of agricultural GDP is 4 times more effective to increase people's income (WDR 2007), but… </li></ul><ul><li>… poverty also influences the capacity to increase crop productivity </li></ul>
    26. 26. The resilience challenge <ul><li>Not only should water productivity be increased … </li></ul><ul><li>… but communities and ecosystems producing food should be able to cope with global changes (climate, economy, demography, migrations…) , ie </li></ul><ul><li>become more resilient (persistent, adaptable, transformable) </li></ul>Green water Blue water MUS MUS resilience zone Single uses unstable zone
    27. 27. Resilience of dry rainfed systems <ul><li> Green water is the source of runoff and percolation of blue water </li></ul><ul><li>Ways to improve access to green water </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In-field soil water conservation techniques that increase the rate of infiltration and percolation, e.g. mulching </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Micro‐catchment or runoff farming and supplementary irrigation to capture overland flow from areas adjacent to fields Household crop income raised from US$200 to 600 per year </li></ul></ul>
    28. 28. Resilience from wetlands: Nam Songkhram <ul><li>Highly productive but contested waterscape </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Floods and droughts always presented as main obstacles to development, whereas flood pulse is main driver of wetland productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Threat of ‘Water Grid’ and other mega‐projects hangs over future of wetlands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But household income US$1100/y </li></ul></ul>“ paa boong paa thaam”
    29. 29. Resilience from Multiple Use water Systems <ul><li>Multiple use water systems are an effective way to fight poverty by improving access to agricultural water </li></ul><ul><li>Experience shows that farmers use/re-use multiple (up to 9!) sources of water </li></ul>
    30. 30. From domestic water to multiple-use <ul><li>Homestead-scale multiple-use gives high resilience against natural- and human-made volatility </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Especially for the poor and for women generates ‘more MDG per drop’ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple-use water ladder, with household water-derived income ranging from US$40 to 300/year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Costs for multiple-use supplies for homestead-based production typically repaid within 3 years, from the income gained, therefore cross-subsidized domestic uses </li></ul></ul>
    31. 31. How to address the resilience challenge? <ul><li>Multiple water uses, techniques and sources, together with resulting community organization do increase resilience </li></ul><ul><li>Neglecting the natural and immemorial continuity between water natural and man-made systems creates unaffordable disruptive changes </li></ul>Green water Blue water Single uses unstable zone Multiple use/sources resilience Rainfed humid Rainfed dry Disruptive Change
    32. 32. Spiritual Transformation <ul><li>Inhumanity inflicted to another destroys humanity in myself </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Emmanuel Kant, philosopher </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Science is a differential equation, religion is a boundary condition </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Alan Turing, founder of computer science </li></ul></ul>
    33. 33. Reintroducing a « triangulation » Man alone with his pulsions Universal law and inner peace « Otherness »
    34. 34. Changes at individual level <ul><li>Care for individual water footprint </li></ul>
    35. 35. Political changes at local level <ul><li>Respect and learn from sacred waterscapes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Paa Boong Paa Thaam (Thailand) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tamboloma sacred lake in the Andean Paramo (Ecuador) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water Temples (Bali) </li></ul></ul>
    36. 36. Political changes at local level <ul><li>In Balinese subaks , water sharing coordinated by temples has increased collective output income </li></ul><ul><li>More gain from sharing than from protecting individual interests (spiritual > economic) </li></ul>
    37. 37. Political changes at global level <ul><li>High level declarations from spiritual leaders do have impact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Eg Encyclical Letter Caritas in Veritate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ a network of economic institutions capable of guaranteeing regular access to sufficient food and water for nutritional needs, and also capable of addressing the primary needs and necessities ensuing from genuine food crises, whether due to natural causes or political irresponsibility, nationally and internationally” (§27) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>How do we exploit the unique moment of this Forum? </li></ul>
    38. 38. Thank you Alain Vidal, CPWF Director [email_address] www.waterandfood.org www.slideshare.com/CPWF
    39. 39. References and links <ul><li>Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>www.waterandfood.org </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The World Bank </li></ul><ul><ul><li>www.worldbank.org </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World Development Report 2007 on Agriculture </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>www.fao.org </li></ul></ul><ul><li>International Water Management Institute (IWMI) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>www.iwmi.org </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Comprehensive Assessment on Water and Agriculture </li></ul></ul><ul><li>International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>www.ifpri.org </li></ul></ul><ul><li></li></ul>
    40. 40. Photo Credits <ul><li>Challenge Program on Water and Food </li></ul><ul><li>The World Bank </li></ul><ul><li>International Water Management Institute </li></ul><ul><li>International Livestock Research Institute </li></ul><ul><li>International Development Enterprises </li></ul><ul><li>Reuters </li></ul><ul><li></li></ul>
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