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  • 1. ResilienceTopic Working Group Line Gordon,Stockholm Resilience Centre Basin Leader MeetingVientiane, Laos, 18. Jan. 2011
  • 2. Resilience Topic Working Group1. What is a resilience perspective?2. Examples of resilience research2 E l f ili h (mainly from CPWF 1) 3. How can the group work? 4. Questions for discussion
  • 3. Landslides in Brazil,Flooding in Queensland QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture.
  • 4. Foley et al. 2005
  • 5. Changing preconditions in the Anthropocene • Rapid environmental change • Altered and new disturbance regimes • How to ensure capacity to cope, adapt and transform?Steffen et al. 2004
  • 6. Regime shifts / Tipping points / Critical transitions Regime shifts are: Suprising, sudden shifts of stability domains/ development trajectories Once a threshold is crossed it is difficult to go back (assymetry and/or hysteresis) Management practices will need to adapt, or try to transform y
  • 7. Resilience deals with the tension between persistence and c a ge change
  • 8. Resilience is the capacity of a system—be it an individual, a forest, y , , a city, or an economy — to deal with change and continue to develop Rather than stability, change is seen as the underlying variable, uncertainty (disturbances/shocks) inherent to systemsSven-Göran “Svennis” Eriksson (Swedish successful soccer coach): “It is a wrong strategy not ( ) g gyto change a winning team”
  • 9. Resilience is about:a) withstanding shocks and disturbances (like climatechange or financial crisis), andb) using such events to catalyze renewal novelty and renewal, novelty,innovationThe challenge in a nutshell:How far can a system be perturbed before a regime shift y p ghappens?How much shock can a system absorb before it transformsinto something fundamentally different?How can active transformations from an undesirable social-ecological state into a better one be orchestrated? (Folke 2010, Seeds magazine)
  • 10. Three premises underpinning resilience perspective:1) Humans and nature are strongly coupled and coevolving, coevolving and should therefore be conceived of as one “social- ecological” system.2) Social-ecological systems are complex adaptive systems (e.g. highly unpredictable, self-organizing)3) Cross scale and dynamic interactions represent new challenges for governance and management
  • 11. Feedback theory - practice - theory“Despite recent interest in resilience, there is still little empiricalevidence to demonstrate how resilience may be enhanced byagriculture investments (Walker et al 2010) investments” al.CPWF uniquely suited to contribute to improved resiliencethinking i several areas - can contribute to resilience theory ( hi ki in l ib ili h (notonly practice) in e.g. these fields• Understanding of resilience for development/poverty alleviation• Understanding of resilience in human-dominated landscapes• Global international network of local in-depth site-specificknowledge/understanding/wisdom•I Improve the interplay of theory and practice - ( th i t l f th d ti (research f h fordevelopment).
  • 12. Potential core themes of a TWG on Resilience 1. Linked social-ecological systems and the role of ecosystem services trade offs and synergies trade-offs 2. Regime shifts and the tension of persistence and development (coping, adapting and transforming) 3 3. The role o d stu ba ces a d s oc s for innovation e o e of disturbances and shocks o o at o and persistence 4. 4 Operationalising adaptive management in development context
  • 13. 1. Linked social-ecological systems and the role of ecosystem services trade offs and synergies trade-offs QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Conceptual overview of wetland sub-systems, PN 30a) Can management of regulating services help build resilience of reg lating ser ices b ild provisioning services?b) Empirical link between poverty and ecosystem services (Poorer households resilience often more directly dependent on ES’s) - how does this dependence change in times of crises?
  • 14. 2. Regime shifts and the tension of persistence and development (coping adapting and transforming) (coping, Resilient Non resilient Non resilient Resilient From A. Vidal
  • 15. Synthetic analysis and concetualisation of resilience along a blue to g g green continuum Example from IWRM in Southern Africa Paa Boong Paa Thaam Multiple use systems Wetlands in the Mekong basin IWRM in water scarce Southern AfricaProductivity Productivity Green water Blue water Green water Blue water Productivity Green water Blue water Vidal, van Koppen, Love & Blake, 2010
  • 16. Review of CPWF adaptations and transformation cases t f ti Re-greening Re greening the Uganda “Cattle Corridor” Restoring river flows, quality and ecosystem services in the Andes Restoring the sustainability of the Mekong Delta agro-ecosystem16 Vidal, Mpairwe, Peden, Quintero, Tuong 2010
  • 17. Lessons learnt on adaptability and transformability Degraded food producing systems are often locked in resilient (poverty) traps Institutional and technical innovations mostly enable adaptation (transformation seems to require more time and dramatic changes) Long-term efforts required to st e gt e t e es e ce o strengthen the resilience of desired states17 Vidal, Mpairwe, Peden, Quintero, Tuong 2010
  • 18. What does resilience meanfor big if bi river basins? b i ?Suggested basin closure as apotential threshold for regimeshifts Conceptual model of basin interactions Basin resilience risk being undermined by conventional development Cummings et al, in press
  • 19. 4. Operationalising adaptive management in a development contextExample from small-scalefisheries on participative waysof scoping the baseline for QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture.adaptive management Integrated assessment map QuickTime™ d Q i kTi ™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Identification of potential socially defined thresholds Bene et al. PN 72 project report
  • 20. WORKPLAN OF THE RESILIENCE TWG1) D Development of a position paper l t f iti Link theoretical approaches in resilience thinking to case studies in the challenge program.2) TWG establishment and launch a) Together with BL’s identify resilience champions in the different challenge program basins b) Launch the Topic Working Group An initial small, dynamic, creative, proactive and self- organizing group Ensure resilience is anchored in real cases in the basins Together develop strategy for working w ph 2 projects Launch of the working group during Resilience 2011 conference in Arizona (OBS!! 11-17 March) ( ) Connect to resilience scholars in other forums
  • 21. 3) Synthesis of phase 1, overview of phase 2 Go through outputs from phase 1 and analyze linkages to resilience. Help with, a d initiate pape s that can provide sy t es s e p t , and t ate papers t at ca p o de synthesis and/or conceptual development that will facilitate the future research in the group.4) Forum Participate actively in the organization of the Forum in Nov 20115) Facilitation, learning and mentoring ) , g g This activity will be developed together with the TWG core group when that is established
  • 22. Questions - conceptual to practicalTo bring home:• How is a resilience thinking different from other approaches that deals with integrated/interdisciplinary issues related to sustainability, sustainable livelihoods etc?• Is resilience always desirable? Can we specifically think about how cases in CPWF can contribute to understanding transformations?To discuss:• What can a resilience approach bring to your projects?• How can your projects contribute to resilience thinking theory and practice?
  • 23. Questions - operational• What projects in your basins are relevant for the resilience TWG?• Who could be resilience champions in your basins?• Do you have ideas based on your understanding of ideas, the basins, on what issues the resilience TWG could/should address?