Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*
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Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference* Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Summary Energy market overview CPFL Energia – Highlights and Results CPFL Energia – Evolution 4 years since IPO 2
  • 2. Brazilian market has 64 distribution’s companies Market Share1 (%) Distribution Business – 2007 CPFL Energia 13,3% Distributors (#) 64 Brasiliana Energia 12,1% Clients (million) 61 Cemig 8,6% Distributed Energy (TWh) Neoenergia 7,4% 376.9 Copel 6,8% EdB 5,7% Market Breakdown Celesc 4,0% • The 5 largest groups have 50% of market-share Ashmore Energy 3,7% • State-owned companies: 34% Energisa 3,5% • Private Company: 66% Others 34,8% Spreading proposes consolidation opportunities 3 1) ANEEL – Ref. 2Q07 annualized (Recalculation of CPFL’s participation)
  • 3. Brazilian market has 1,695 hydroelectric plants. The public sector concentrates 70% of the assets Market Share (%) Generation Business – 1Q08 Chesf 10% Hydroelectric plants (#) 1,695 Furnas 9% Eletronorte 9% Installed Capacity (MW) 108,852 Cesp 7% Itaipu 7% Cemig 6% Market Breakdown Tractebel 6% Copel 4% • The 6 largest groups have 50% Petrobrás 4% of the market AES Tietê 3% • State-owned companies: 70% Duke 2% • Private Company: 30% CPFL Energia 2% Others 31% 4th largest private generation company in Brazil 4 Source: Aneel – last information available Market breakdown: Acende Brasil
  • 4. Summary Energy market overview CPFL Energia – Highlights and Results CPFL Energia – Evolution 4 years since IPO 5
  • 5. CPFL Energia – Highlights • Brazilian’s largest player in distribution and commercialization businesses • Energy market is concentrated in the most developed regions of Brazil (South/Southeast) • CPFL is listed in the Novo Mercado in Bovespa and ADR level III in NYSE • Differentiated Dividend Policy: payment of 50% of the net income on a semi-annual basis • 100% hydraulic generation portfolio, with a strong growth in the installed capacity in the last few years • Long term generation and distribution concessions • 5 distribution companies’ acquisition, 9 SPP’s and RGE’s stake (33%), Foz do Chapecó HPP’s stake (11%) and Lajeado HPP’s stake (7%) in the last 2 years, with a R$ 1.1 billion investment • First company in the Brazilian electric sector to negotiate carbon credits, through a run-of-stream HPP • Constitution of CPFL Bioenergia, for investments in energy generation from biomass 6
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  • 7. CPFL Energia’s Investment Case join the current portfolio growth with acquisition opportunities • Operational efficiency focus • Small distribution companies acquisition, strategically located Distribution • Large distribution companies acquisition • Cooperatives acquisition • Private networks incorporation • Projects’ conclusion • SPP’s repowering, construction and acquisition Generation • Energy cogeneration through biomass • Green field projects - Auctions • Increasing in Value Added Services (VAS) and new products and services Commercialization • New opportunities - clients between 0.5 and 3.0 MW, supplied by cogeneration or SPP’s 8
  • 8. Increasing scale gains through CPFL Energia’s management expertise DISTRIBUTION DEC1 - Hours 14.6 17.0 9.5 8.4 6.4 7.1 7.2 5.4 5.5 6.1 CPFL Mococa CPFL Santa CPFL Leste CPFL Paulista CPFL CPFL Jaguari CPFL Sul RGE Consolidated ' Cruz Paulista Piratininga Paulista FEC1 - Times 12.0 9.80 7.76 8.32 6.66 6.74 5.85 5.78 5.82 5.69 CPFL Mococa CPFL Santa CPFL Leste CPFL Paulista CPFL ' CPFL Jaguari CPFL Sul RGE Consolidated Cruz Paulista Piratininga Paulista 3Q08 Brazilian Average2 9 (1) Sep/2008 – Annualized values (2) Source: ANEEL. Last available figures – Aug/08
  • 9. Strong growth in the installed capacity and long term concessions in the generation ventures GENERATION Installed Capacity (MW) % 25.1 Assured Energy (MWmedium) 9.3% 2,174 % Concession Term 48.2 1,737 1,738 1,588 % 25.5 1,072 7.6% 812 854 915 40.2 % 861 862 1,082 800 434 472 525 571 2003 2004 2005 2006 20073 2008(e) 2009(e) 2010(e) SPP’s CPFL Geração Monte Claro Barra Grande Campos Novos Castro Alves Foz do Chapecó 2027 2036 2036 2035 2036 2036 Serra da Mesa1 CPFL Sul2 Lajeado 14 de Julho 2028 2032 2036 SPP’s CPFL Jaguariúna3 2015 (1) CPFL has the right of 51.54% of the Assured Energy until 2028 (2) Hydroelectric projects with installed capacity <= 1,000 kW are not eligible to concession 10 (3) Among the 9 SPP’s of CPFL Jaguariúna, 6 are in the situation mentioned in note 2 Note: Includes expected two SPP’s repowering in 2009
  • 10. SPP’s: Greenfield Projects GENERATION Partnership to studies and implementation of SPP’s Feasible in the medium and long term 70 analysed projects and enrollment in ANEEL for 10 projects Capacity: 6 75.6 MW 60 4 Estimated discarded investment: • Low Internal Rate of Return • PPA’s already signed with unattractive prices projects R$ 285 million • Impracticable environmental requirements Feasible in the short term Basic projects and Technical ANEEL and Installation environmental Feasible Projects in the short studies and studies environmental License and term (up to 30 months) enrollment agencies’ construction of (necessary for in ANEEL approval the SPP’s the previous license) OK 2008/2009 2008/2009 24 months 11
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  • 12. CPFL Energia is alert to the opportunities of business involving sugar cane biomass GENERATION Business Model COMMERCIALIZATION • High pressure boilers CPFL invests in the • Condensing turbines Energy purchased from biomass source to sell generation-related • Back pressure turbines in the free market machinery… • Substation and transmission …and receives the exceed energy, for a Energy supply certain period contract Baldin Project – CPFL Bioenergia’s 1st project • Contract signed: Aug 2008 Amount: over R$ 500 million Sold • Construction of a sugar cane 100% CPFL Contract period: 2009 to 2023 bagasse-fired thermoelectric Investment: generation plant R$ 98 million • Location: Pirassununga – SP % of bioelectricity energy purchased in • Expected operations: April 2010 CPFL Brazil contracts 13% CPFL will have the right to 25 MW of energy exported 10% during harvest season: 112 GWh/year Current After the contract 13
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  • 14. CPFL presents sales growth in the concession area and in the free market Concession Area Sales - GWh Free Market Sales (GWh) 27.8% TUSD 46,475 178.9% CAPTIVE 41,363 36,364 38,498 36,549 11,230 3,288 7,263 9,585 9,334 8,951 8,887 7,120 6,659 33,076 31,235 31,778 35,245 3,209 27,662 2004 2005 2006 2007 9M08 2004 2005 2006 2007 9M08 Concession Area Sales – GWh – 9M08 6,6% Brazil1 South1 4,5% 4,1% Southeast1 4,9% 4,3% 3,9% Note: excludes intercompany transactions (consolidation accounting basis), CCEE and generation sales (except to the free market) 15 15 (1) Source: EPE (3Q08)
  • 15. Conclusion of the 2nd Periodic Tariff Revision cycle for the Group’s distributors, with CPFL Paulista and RGE’s indexes released in April 1st Cycle 20031 2nd Cycle 2007/083 CPFL Paulista, CPFL Paulista, Acquisitions (CPFL CPFL Piratininga CPFL Piratininga Santa Cruz and Total and RGE and RGE CPFL Jaguariúna) Gross RAB 8,173 9,897 21% 528 10,425 28% Reintegration Quote 371 430 16% 23 454 22% Net RAB 3,857 4,547 18% 284 4,832 25% Parcel B1 1,823 2,208 21% 173 2,381 31% Reference Company 783 1,028 31% 104 1,132 45% R$ million Note: Nominal values (1) Values for the 1st and 2nd cycle using the same methodology: 2nd cycle – exclude PIS/COFINS and R&D charges (2) With financial components 16 (3) Includes adjustment of CPFL Piratininga’s Tariff Revision in Oct. 2008
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  • 20. CPFL Energia supports investment politics aligned with the Group’s growth strategy Actual Investment (R$ million) 1,425 1,551 418 627 606 633 1,133 606 627 797 2004 2005 2006 2007 Capex Total(1) Acquisitions(2) May, 2006 Aug, 2006 Oct, 2006 Apr, 2007 Asset Acquired 32.69% 11% 99.9% 100% Stake Investment – Equity 414 9 203 412 (R$ million) 21 (1) Considers minority shareholder participation’s acquisitions (2) Considers CERFRA Cooperative assets acquisition Note: Hedge not included
  • 21. CPFL’s estimated Capex CPFL Energia’s investment in the next 5 years: R$ 5 billion Total Capex (R$ million) 1,196 1,124 890 837 677 789 Distribution 828 Generation 782 815 783 519 296 22 6 108 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Distribution - R$ million 362 Generation - R$ million 570 546 515 512 391 225 285 258 267 269 271 157 71 81 27 17 5 6 0,3 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Expansion Maintenance Debt Equity 22
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  • 23. Summary Energy market overview CPFL Energia – Highlights and Results CPFL Energia – Evolution 4 years since IPO 24
  • 24. CPFL Energia – Evolution 4 years since IPO 1 and 1.672 +106% 6 25 25 (1) Considers CPFL’s stake in HPPs
  • 25. Since the IPO, CPFL presents an excellent performance in the capital market Share performance – Since the IPO1 Bovespa NYSE 158.5% Performance CPFL1 vs. main indexes - 2008 136.0% 211.7% 68.5% 79.0% +4.7% CPFE3 -36.8% ISE -15.4% -39.5% IBX-100 Ibovespa IEE CPFE3 Dow Jones DJ BR 20 CPL -40.9% IBX-50 -42.4% ITAG -43.5% IGC 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 Good support of the share price during the crisis: Share performance – 20081 Bovespa 4.7% NYSE • Defensive share • Predominance of readjustments indexed by IGP-M, making -9.9% the share attractive in times of inflation acceleration -20.8% -35.3% • Financial crisis has limited impact on the company's performance (energy consumption is inelastic) -53.1% -38.7% • Without currency exposure (Debt with hedge; CVA) Ibovespa IEE CPFE3 Dow Jones DJ BR 20 CPL • Dividends 26 1) Adjusted per dividends – until December 19th, 2008 (ON = R$ 32,68 and ADR = US$ 41.61)