The Coronavirus quickly escalated from a healthcare crisis to an economic crisis. Companies across all industries are pulling back on media spend to avoid risk and cut costs. But when we emerge from this crisis, what will performance marketing look like? How should brands re-enter as the economy slowly opens back up. Join Forrester analyst Collin Colburn to learn about the impact Coronavirus is having on marketing and how marketers should prepare for the rebound.

1. How The Coronavirus Crisis Impacts
Performance Marketing Long Term
The Direct to Consumer Summit: Planning for Q3 & Q4
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2. 11:00 – 11:45am PT 12:30 – 1:15pm PT
LOB PRESENTS:
Why Modern Direct Mail is a D2C
Marketer’s Secret Weapon
Today’s Timeline
QUICKFRAME PRESENTS:
Use Video Effectively Throughout Your
Customer’s Journey
11:45am – 12:30pm PT
FORRESTER PRESENTS:
How The Coronavirus Crisis
Impacts Performance Marketing
Long Term
The Direct to Consumer Summit
2

3. ● Session recording and slides will be sent out
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4. Tinuiti is the largest independent performance
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5. 5
Coronavirus (COVID-19): The Resource Hub for Marketers
The latest news and cutting edge strategies for marketers to apply today
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Latest News
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Tips for
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6. Today’s Speaker
Collin Colburn
Senior Analyst
6

7. How The Coronavirus
Crisis Impacts
Performance Marketing
Long Term
Collin Colburn, Senior Analyst

8. 8© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited. 8
Agenda
• Macroeconomic impacts
• Marketing spend for the next two years
• Shifts in consumer behavior
• Recommendations

9. The pandemic dictates
macro economic trends

10. 10
Firms are planning
for Phase 3 now

11. 11
Spend on goods is
vulnerable each
month of
containment
For each month of containment,
annual GDP declines about 2%

12. 12
The global economy has come to a grinding halt due to
COVID-19

13. 13© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
• Scenario A, best case:
̶ Virus infections and death rates peak in Q2 2020 in the US and Europe
̶ Economies impacted from Q2-Q3 2020 and recovery beginning in Q4 2020
̶ As of 4/9, this scenario had a 30% probability
• Scenario B, a more damaging scenario:
̶ Pandemic and economic downturn lasts through all of 2020
̶ Conditions improve beginning in Q2 2021
̶ As of 4/9, this scenario had a 60% probability
• Scenario C, an even more damaging scenario:
̶ Pandemic recurs and economic downturn extends into 2021
̶ As of 4/9, this scenario had 10% probability
̶ We have not modeled the effects of this scenario on tech or marketing investments yet
Three scenarios for the US economy
Let’s walk through
the impacts to the
marketing industry
if this scenario pans
out

14. 14
The US economy
is in recession
The extent of the recession will
depend on the scenario
Source: US Tech Budget Outlooks In A COVID-19 Recession Forrester report

15. The pandemic is severely
impacting marketing

16. 16
Total marketing
spend in the US
will fall regardless
of scenario
Source: The 2020 COVID-19 Crisis Will Stun US Marketing

17. 17
Offline media
spend will collapse
Source: The 2020 COVID-19 Crisis Will Stun US Marketing

18. 18
Agency services
spend goes L-
shaped
Source: The 2020 COVID-19 Crisis Will Stun US Marketing

19. 19
Marketing
automation will
stay afloat;
martech declines
Source: The 2020 COVID-19 Crisis Will Stun US Marketing

20. 20
Other COVID-19 effects
on marketing
• 58% of brand marketers said they will be
reducing their marketing spending
• Advertisers are adjusting media budgets down,
driven partially by the lack of live sports
• One upside: This has forced marketing teams
into new Agile ways of getting things done, and
will be the new norm
Sources: Digiday; IRI; Forrester leadership boards

21. The pandemic has changed
consumer habits and
sentiment, too

22. 22© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
37%
5%
8%
9%
9%
11%
12%
13%
14%
14%
16%
17%
21%
None of these
Sought out mental health support
Signed up for online class
Signed up for video or music online streaming service
Meditated or practiced other relaxation techniques
Used a digital payment method
Took an exercise class online
Received medical support or a medical appointment over the…
Banked online
Paid bills online
Attended a religious service online
Ordered restaurant delivery online
Purchased groceries online
Which of the following, if any, have you done for the first time as a
result of the COVID-19 pandemic?
Base: 1122 US online adults
Source: Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics COVID-19 Survey 1, 2020 (US).

23. 23© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
17%
19%
23%
25%
26%
30%
33%
Which of the following, if any, have you done for the first time as a
result of the COVID-19 pandemic?
Base: 1122 US online adults
Source: Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics COVID-19 Survey 1, 2020 (US).
Ordered restaurant delivery online
Purchased groceries online
Paid bills online
Signed up for online class
Took an exercise class online
Signed up for video or music online
streaming service
Banked online
14%
16%
19%
10%
18%
26%
19%
5%
7%
13%
5%
13%
18%
15%
4%
10%
5%
1%
6%
17%
12%
Generation Z Millennials Generation X Baby Boomers

24. 24© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
12%
18%
19%
21%
24%
25%
29%
42%
45%
None of the above
Emails from companies about COVID-19 are unhelpful
I am using contactless payments more to avoid touching screens and
hardware in stores
I'll shop much more online in the future
I want more places to offer curbside pickup
I am buying more from Amazon/Tmall and Taobao than I ever have
before
I appreciate store emails about COVID-19
I want to support affected local businesses
I hope to resume usual shopping habits soon
With which of the following statements *do you agree* regarding
the COVID-19 crisis?
Base: 1122 US online adults
Source: Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics COVID-19 Survey 1, 2020 (US).

25. 25© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
11%
22%
23%
25%
27%
27%
29%
29%
35%
With which of the following statements *do you agree* regarding
the COVID-19 crisis?
Base: 1122 US online adults
Source: Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics COVID-19 Survey 1, 2020 (US).
I am buying more from Amazon/Tmall and Taobao
than I ever have before
I appreciate store emails about COVID-19
None of the above
Generation Z Millennials Generation X Baby Boomers
I want more places to offer curbside pickup
I'll shop much more online in the future
I want to support affected local businesses
I am using contactless payments more to avoid
touching screens and hardware in stores
I hope to resume usual shopping habits
soon
Emails from companies about COVID-19 are
unhelpful
12%
25%
38%
24%
38%
30%
23%
32%
31%
13%
14%
56%
16%
58%
18%
17%
32%
21%
13%
15%
50%
17%
38%
21%
22%
24%
20%

26. What should you do to
succeed now and in the long
run?

27. 27© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
Get your organic marketing efforts up to speed
A website is the primary place
where customers experience a
brand
Customers will look for up-to-date
information from your website,
social media handles
As we begin to re-open, customers
will turn to organic channels for critical
information regarding hours, location
details, and available products

28. 28© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
A global hotel chain is prioritizing organic
marketing
Partnered with NYC hospitals to
provide complimentary rooms to
staff
Developed cross-channel content to
communicate to customers about
updated efforts for cleaning and
sanitizing of properties

29. 29
Adopt agile
planning methods
for the future
Source: How To Apply Agile Methodology To Marketing

30. 30© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
Many companies were forced early on to adjust
plans quickly

31. 31© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
Model possible
outcomes on a rolling
basis
• Start with small tests – varying by customer
needs, routes to market, and product availability
• Align tests with budget capacity and changing
customer needs
• Update regularly

32. 32© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
ANZ has adopted agile scenario planning for all
events or crises

33. 33
Don’t stop
marketing
Don’t continue an unaffordable
media plan, but consider if pre-crisis
products, placements, or promotions
should be revised for customer’s
current needs

34. 34© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
Large and small businesses have adopted their
marketing approaches
Peloton now offers “family fit”
programming for customers with
kids at home with them
Aman Home Services, a cleaning
business, pivoted to sterilizing
commercial building lobbies when
household services declined
Local restaurants are now offering
grocery pick up in addition to take
out services

35. 35© 2020 Forrester. Reproduction Prohibited.
• A Q2 2021 economic recovery is the most likely scenario as of now
• As a results, brands will have to re-evaluate marketing spend and priorities
• Consumer behavior is shifting faster than ever
• What should you do?
̶ Prioritize organic marketing efforts now
̶ Test and adopt agile planning methods
̶ Model out possible scenarios – and revisit those scenarios frequently!
̶ Don’t go dark – use the 4Ps to keep marketing
Key Takeaways

36. 36
Thank You.
Collin Colburn
ccolburn@forrester.com
212.857.0735

37. 37
Live Q&A
37
Collin Colburn
Senior Analyst

38. THANK YOU!
38

39. 11:00 – 11:45am PT 12:30 – 1:15pm PT
QUICKFRAME PRESENTS:
Use Video Effectively Throughout Your
Customer’s Journey
11:45am – 12:30pm PT
FORRESTER PRESENTS:
How The Coronavirus Crisis Impacts
Performance Marketing Long Term
LOB PRESENTS:
Why Modern Direct Mail is a D2C
Marketer’s Secret Weapon
Today’s Timeline
The Direct to Consumer Summit