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A Promise Renewed_Tessa Wardlaw_10.16.13

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  • .
  • Globally the ARR has more than tripled since the early 1990s.But it is particularly encouraging to see that in Sub-Saharan Africa – the region with the highest under five mortality in the world - the rate of decline for the most recent period is more than five times faster than it was in the early 1990s.This acceleration is particularly noteworthy in ESARO. Only EAPRO has a faster rate of decline than ESA – this is quite a surprising and exciting finding.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Tessa Wardlaw Data & Analytics Section/ DPS UNICEF September 2013
    • 2. A Promise Renewed • A Promise Renewed, is a global effort to accelerate action on maternal, newborn and child survival • In June 2012, the governments of Ethiopia, India and the United States ― together with UNICEF ― brought together more than 700 partners from the public, private and civil-society sectors for the Child Survival Forum Call to Action • More than 176 governments, civil society and private sector organizations have signed a pledge to redouble their efforts to end all preventable child deaths
    • 3. • Technical report providing most recent country, regional and global estimates on child mortality and includes methods • UN-IGME • 2nd annual report on progress achieved on APR commitments and includes more in-depth mortality and causes of death analysis • UNICEF
    • 4. How many children are dying? Under-five mortality – levels and trends
    • 5. Great progress in reducing child deaths • Global U5MR declined by nearly by half, from 90 per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 48 per 1,000 in 2012 • Annual number of under-five deaths reduced from 12.6 million to 6.6 million over the same period • 17,000 fewer children died each day in 2012 than did in 1990
    • 6. Under-five mortality rate has declined in all regions since 1990 Under-five mortality rate by region, 1990 and 2012, and % declines Source: IGME 2013.
    • 7. Sub-Saharan Africa has substantially accelerated its reduction Annual rates of reduction (ARR) in the under-five mortality rate, %, by region, since 1990 Source: IGME 2013.
    • 8. 26 high mortality countries have reduced under-five mortality rate by at least 50% High-mortality countries with greatest percentage declines in under-five mortality rate from 1990–2012 Source: IGME 2013.
    • 9. Some poor countries have made great progress in reducing under-five mortality Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2013 and World Bank GDP per capita estimates published in 2013. Decline in under-five mortality rate 1990–2012 and GDP per capita in 2012, by country
    • 10. Exciting new findings on disparities • Many regions have reduced disparities in under-five mortality between the poorest and the richest except Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia • Under-five mortality rate has declined among even the poorest in all regions Source: UNICEF analysis based on Pedersen, J., et al., Levels and Trends in Inequity and Child Mortality: Evidence from DHS and MICS surveys', working paper, unpublished, 2013.'
    • 11. Still, progress is insufficient to achieve MDG4 target by 2015 and substantial acceleration is required Achievement of MDG 4 by year, globally and by region, if current trends continue in all countries Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2013.
    • 12. Unfinished business • Good news • Outstanding progress in decreasing under five mortality at global and regional levels • Even in some of the most disadvantaged countries and households • Bad news • Nearly 6.6 million children still died in 2012 • 18,000 children under age five died each day • Not likely to reach MDG4 unless we dramatically accelerate progress
    • 13. Where are deaths occurring? Half of the 6.6 million under-five deaths occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa Number and % of under-five deaths by region, 2012 (thousands and % of global total) Half of all child deaths occur in just 5 countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, DR Congo, China Source: IGME 2013.
    • 14. Children in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia face a higher risk of dying before their fifth birthday Source: IGME 2013.
    • 15. Fast progress in reducing the number of under-five deaths in sub-Saharan Africa is imperative as its child population soars Number of children under age 5, by region, 1950-2050 Source: UNICEF analysis based on World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, United Nations Population Division, New York, 2013.
    • 16. What are children dying of?
    • 17. Infectious diseases such as pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria are the leading killers of children under age 5; roughly 44% of deaths in children under 5 occur during the neonatal period Global distribution of deaths among children under age 5, by cause, 2012 Pneumonia 17% Neonatal 44% Other 22% AIDS 2% Injury 5% Malaria 7% Diarrhoea 9% Estimates are rounded, and therefore may not sum to 100%. Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2013, WHO and CHERG 2013. Globally, nearly half of all deaths among children under 5 are attributable to undernutrition
    • 18. Despite declining rates, neonatal deaths are growing as a share of global under-five deaths, amid faster progress in reducing mortality in the post-neonatal period
    • 19. Neonatal mortality Most neonatal deaths are from preventable causes Global distribution of neonatal deaths, by cause, 2012 Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2013, WHO and CHERG 2013.
    • 20. Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2013, WHO and CHERG 2013. The past decade has seen major declines in child deaths due to leading infectious diseases Note: For comparability across diseases, this report presents analysis based on IGME 2013, drawing on provisional analyses by WHO and Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) 2013. These estimates may differ, therefore, from those presented elsewhere.
    • 21. Leading Causes of Death • The APR Report reviews the main causes of death and their geographic distribution • This section of the Report also focuses on key interventions that need to accelerate in order to achieve MDG 4 • The following slides present just one illustrative example of what is included the Report
    • 22. The diarrhoea belt: Diarrhoea deaths concentrated across the Sahel and in South Asia % of under-five deaths attributable to diarrhoea, 2012 Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2013, WHO and CHERG 2013.
    • 23. Lowest ORS coverage in countries with the highest levels diarrhoea deaths among children Childhood diarrhoea deaths and ORS coverage Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2013, WHO and CHERG 2013, and UNICEF global databases 2013.
    • 24. The MDG 4 story: past and future
    • 25. 90 million lives saved since 1990 – more than the current population size of Germany Number of lives saved since 1990 among children under age 5, and number of lives to be saved in order to achieve MDG4 Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2013.
    • 26. 90 million lives saved since 1990 – more than the current population size of Germany Number of lives saved since 1990 among children under age 5, and number of lives to be saved in order to achieve MDG4 Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2013.
    • 27. About two thirds of the additional 3.5 million lives need to be saved in Sub-Saharan Africa Additional lives to be saved by region, 2013-2015 in order to meet MDG 4 (thousands and % of total) Half of the additional 3.5 million lives need to be saved in just 4 countries: Nigeria, DR Congo, India and Pakistan Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2013, WHO and CHERG 2013.
    • 28. Thank you!