Colorado leadership v4

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  • New and improvedLinked toFacebookReviews come from Facebook friends
  • Gifts.com offers suggestions based on the responses to a list of questions – requires you to know the person pretty well
  • Links to FacebookOffers suggestions of items and music for you that are popular among your friends on Facebook or based on the music you like on Facebook.Offers suggestions for gifts for your friends based on their Facebook profile – information they filled out. More personal and relevant
  • Backcountry.com links to Facebook and suggests friends you can discuss your gear with
  • Decalz are your personal curatorial preferences to be shared with your friends and others. Your influence within this graph (how your friends click or view your decalz) gets you rewarded with PTZ on Lockerz.Allows you to discover, evaluate and buy products based on what other friends watched or purchased – what they recommend
  • Encourages you to share purchases on your social networkIf you’re the first to buy a product, share it on your social network and 3 friends buy it, yours is free.
  • Bodybuilding.com users create profiles that feature their progress and workout routinesUsers also list the products they use – which can be purchased on the bodybuilding.com site
  • The ‘Field Test’ feature on Backcountry.com allows users to share their adventures and the gear they took along with them.
  • Colorado leadership v4

    1. 1. The New Digital RealityPresentation to Team Colorado Leadership Greg Maffei 11.30.2011
    2. 2. Digital Godzilla „Eats‟ All King Kongs… 2
    3. 3. Digital Explosion• YouTube YouTube Videos Uploaded per Minute • 3b views/day = 92b views/month 60 (hours) • Avg user spends 25 minutes/visit 50 • 48 hrs. of video uploaded/minute 40 • Largest TV station in world 30 • Broad demographic: 18 - 54 years 20 old 10• Facebook 0 1/08 9/08 5/09 1/10 9/10 5/11 • 800m users • Avg user has 130 friends (m) Number of Facebook Users • Avg user spends ~1 hour on FB /day 900 • 50% of users log on daily 800 • 250m photos uploaded/day 700 • >7m apps/websites integrated 600 500 • >$4m revenue in 2011 400 • Worth > $100b 300 200 100 0 2/09 8/09 2/10 8/10 2/11 8/11 3
    4. 4. Facebook Phenomenon Years to reach 50 million users Added over 200m 38 13 4 3 users inYears Years Years Years less than 1 year Radio Television Internet iPod Facebook 1. China 1,336,450,000 6. Brazil 193,099,000 2. India 1,182,330,000 7. Pakistan 169,835,000 3. Facebook 800,000,000 8. Bangladesh 162,221,000 4. United States 309,573,000 9. Nigeria 154,729,000 5. Indonesia 231,369,500 10. Russia 141,927,297 4
    5. 5. Social Media Changing Behaviors• Changes habits and actions • Fastest growing segment is 50+; >40% of those online use social media • 1 in 5 couples married in US met via social media • Also 1 in 5 divorces are blamed on Facebook • Overtakes porn as #1 activity on web • Some universities have stopped issuing email accounts• And business… The Top 10 Games on Facebook • Social gamers will buy $6b in CityVille virtual goods by 2013 The Sims Social Adventure World • Movie goers only buy $2.5b FarmVille in real goods Texas HoldEm Poker • Zynga Empires & Allies • 232m monthly active Gardens of Time users, 60m daily active users Words With Friends • ~$1b annual revenue run-rate Diamond Dash INDICATES A ZYNGA Bubble Island GAME • >90% of revenue from purchasing virtual currency 5m 20m 35m 50m 65m • $15 market value? 5
    6. 6. Digital Media Global Reach• Media is local; technology is global • Wikipedia: over 15m articles; 78% non-English • 70% of YouTubes traffic comes from outside of US • Microsoft, Google, Oracle have >50% of revenue from outside US…no media company • Twitter - integral force in “Arab Spring”• China‟s closed Internet exception? • China has #1 and #2 largest broadband providers in world • QZone among world‟s largest social networks with 500m users • Chinese prefer IM over email 6
    7. 7. Destruction of Traditional Music• Album was an artificial marketing concept • Priced too high? • Economics destroyed through piracy, Apple‟s unbundling • Consumers get what they want… 7
    8. 8. Destruction of Traditional Media• Newspapers - Internet premium content for free • 24 out of 25 largest lost circulation • Cost-cutting • More effective revenue models: eBay, Craigslist, Zillow • Negative cycle…• Decline of TV stations • 2011 local advertising down 10%• Once you train them on free…• More market value destroyed than created? 8
    9. 9. Moore‟s Law Goes to Movies Downloading Spiderman 1.27 Gigabytes 9
    10. 10. 1978 Cost to store 1.27GB Storage ~2.23 IBM 3370 units @ $114,000 each $254,000Download time 300kb/second – 9,407 hours $48.70/hour and Cost $458,120 Cost to 82 Computers x $3,572 playback $292,904 10
    11. 11. 2011 Storage Cost to store 1.27GB $199 for 500GB $.51Download time 5 minutes @ $.10 per GB X1.27GB and Cost $.13 Cost to $199? playback $99? 11
    12. 12. Storage 2038 1978 ~$254,000 2011 ~$.51 2038 Free 12
    13. 13. Download Time & Costs 2038 1978 $458,120 9,407 hours @ 300bps 2011 $.13 15 minutes @ 30Mbps 2038 2 sec @5Gbps $.01 13
    14. 14. Cost to Playback 2038 1978 $292,904 2011 $199 2038 <$1.00 14
    15. 15. Decline of TV?• Internet up, TV down? Median Age of Nightly News Viewers 2004 - 2009 • 4 hours/HH in ‟75, 6 hours in ‟85, 8.5 hours in „10• Viewership fragmenting and aging • Networks declining• Online viewing up 7x in a year • Netflix has 23m customers• Will cable companies get disintermediated?• Will the cable bundle survive? • The Longhorn Network • DIRECTV‟s $90 ARPU v. Netflix‟s $7.99 Median Age of Morning News Viewers 2004 - 2009• Mediocre content will get swamped • Free/user-generated beats mediocre• Compelling content will do fine • 9 min YouTube video can‟t compete with The Sopranos• Online aggregators will create video portals and build powerful new businesses… 15
    16. 16. Internet Rules• If it can be free, it will be• If it can be known, it will be• If it can be rated, it will be• It‟s who you know, not just what you know 16
    17. 17. eCommerce History• Web 1.0 – Information • Internet provides transparency and information, but limited capacity to absorb the data• Web 2.0 – Evaluation • Look to “knowledgeable influencers” when making decisions• Web 3.0 – Recommendations • Facebook: volume of recommendations, one friend recommends something we consider it, three friends recommend certain to consider it• Web 3.1 – Not just any friend • Google+ circles - look to quality of relations/closeness • Lockerz Decalz / FWB - advocacy 17
    18. 18. 18
    19. 19. Recommendations & Referrals 19
    20. 20. Recommendations and Referrals 20
    21. 21. Social Graph
    22. 22. Discover => Evaluate => Buy 22
    23. 23. Group Buying 23
    24. 24. See who’s sitting where Tag your seatConsumers who connect through Facebook spend $5 more onyour Tagaverage than those who just buy friends tickets 24
    25. 25. Forums and Communities 25
    26. 26. 26
    27. 27. Field Tests 27
    28. 28. Online Education• Online education is $34b industry • Currently >3m online-only students in US • ~50% of college students take at least one class online • Nearly half of online students are 26+ • Phoenix University largest US university • Enrolls >500k students = >10x University of Colorado • Spends $200m/year improving it’s teaching…what can CU spend?• By 2019, estimated that 50% of all classes taught will be delivered online • Many of these will be available for free• Encyclopedia Britannica => Microsoft Encarta => Wikipedia
    29. 29. Education Ready To Be Disrupted• Education, like housing, overpriced bubble • Consumers/students not getting their money‟s worth • Ineffectiveness of college degree • Need for technical/continuous education • Rise of part-time students • Personalization - different rate at which students learn • Students perform better learning online than with face-to-face instruction*• Khan Academy – 2,100 free educational videos • From 1+1=2 to college-level physics, finance • Linking to Facebook to track progress • Raised $5m from Bill Gates and others• Open Culture, Academic Earth, P2PU, Skillshare, Scitable, Skype (connections to professors and tutors)• 350k lectures on iTunes from Stanford, Yale and Oxford• Stanford University online high school• Students perform better learning online than with face-to-face instruction(1) *Evaluation of Evidence-Based Practices in Online Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Review of Online Learning Studies, U.S. Department of Education Office of Planning, Evaluation, and Policy Development Policy and Program Studies Service, 2010
    30. 30. Disrupting Government• If it can be known, it will be known: • Wikileaks • Viral videos and photos force greater accountability from public officials - exposing inconsistent policy positions in US to We Are All Khaled Saeed - Egypt • Increased voter demands for effectiveness and transparency• If it can be rated, it will be rated: • Increased consumer participation in forums and comment procedures • “Yelping” the DMV • Healthcare – rating doctors, insurance rates, procedure costs • Government 2.0 • Open data movement that combines city data with smartphone apps to improve services • SeeClickFix lets residents file public requests for city services from their mobile phones • Other apps include street sweeper alarms, neighborhood crime notifiers, alerts when people enter restaurants that recently got low marks on inspections• If it can be free, it will be: • Post Office “killed” by email • Privatizing/unbundling/forum shopping for “government” services: Fed Ex • Education• It‟s not just what you know, but who you know: • More direct interaction between electeds and citizens (ie, Allen‟s Macaaca video, Brownback v. Tweeting Teen, Huntsmans daughters) • Six years after Katrina, social media totally changed emergency response • Citizens turn to Facebook and Twitter • Gov encouraging this behavior (i.e. Lifeline Facebook App Challenge) • Facebook connections and ratings • Occupy Denver… 30
    31. 31. Questions 31

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