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Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
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Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17

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A look at what are the impacts of different growth scenarios in greenhouse gas emissions. Also a tour of CNT's website showing household transportation emissions.

A look at what are the impacts of different growth scenarios in greenhouse gas emissions. Also a tour of CNT's website showing household transportation emissions.

Published in: Technology, Business
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  • 1. GHG Reductions from Location Efficient Development CNU June 13, 2009 Peter Haas
  • 2. Center for Neighborhood Technology <ul><li>CNT is an “Urban Think & Do Tank” in Chicago </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Been around over 30 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Work in Transportation, Energy, Natural Resources and Climate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Geographic Research and Information Department has 10 people </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CNT is the recipient of the 2009 MacArthur Award for Creative & Effective Institutions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We work closely with Reconnecting America and Strategic Economics in a partnership – Center for Transit Oriented Design, or CTOD </li></ul>
  • 3. Outline <ul><li>GHG and Regional Growth Paper – CTOD Project for the FTA </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How does a household save GHG emissions by location choice? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How does this aggregate up to a specific transit zone? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How can a region’s GHGs be reduced by encouraging compact/infill development? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Show off New Web Based Tool - Can every metropolitan region benefit from efficient development? </li></ul>
  • 4. Household Transportation Model <ul><li>From the work with CTOD on the H+T sm affordability index we have developed a model for that estimated household vmt, and how it is driven by different types of households in different locations. </li></ul><ul><li>Major findings: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Location matters as much or more than household make up </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher density, more walkable, more access to transit, and higher employment proximity results in lower auto use… </li></ul></ul>
  • 5. Household Auto Use <ul><li>Location Efficiency, a major driver: </li></ul>4 Environment Variables: Households/residential acre Avg. block size in acres Transit Connectivity Index Integrated Job Proximity 4 Household Variables Household income Household size Workers per Household Average time for Journey to work Auto Ownership + Auto Usage
  • 6. Household Auto Use <ul><li>Auto ownership… </li></ul>
  • 7. Household Auto Use <ul><li>VMT </li></ul>
  • 8. Household GHG Emissions <ul><li>Looking at only CO 2 from household transportation use </li></ul><ul><li>This represents approximately: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport ~ 33% of all CO 2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>HH Transportation is approximately 75% of all transport emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Therefore, 75%*33% = 25% of the total </li></ul></ul><ul><li>From the modeled VMT per household we estimate the GHG production: </li></ul><ul><li>Where we assume 20.3 mpg and about 9 lbs/gallon for E f </li></ul>
  • 9. Strategy <ul><li>Look at how households in the various areas within the Chicago Metro vary their behavior </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate the value of that in terms of household transportation GHG emission </li></ul><ul><li>See if different growth scenarios impact the regional total... </li></ul>
  • 10. How Does this Add up? Based on Chicago Metropolitan Area Average Modeled Location Residential Density (Households per Residential Acre) Transit Access (Walkable Transit Options) Integrated Employment Proximity (Jobs/Sq Mile) Block Size (Acres) Annual HH VMT (Miles) CO 2 e Generated (Metric Tons) Average location 10.34 4.96 56,824 16.6 12,801 5.60 Average location near fixed rail 17.4 8.83 85,206 9.3 10,874 4.75 Average location NOT near fixed rail 5.4 2.24 36,920 21.7 15168 6.63 Average suburban location 4.3 2.24 32,315 21.8 15,925 6.96 Average Suburban location near fixed rail 5.1 3.82 40,215 13.7 14,898 6.51 Average Suburban location NOT near fixed rail 4.0 1.63 29,228 25.0 16,365 7.15 Average Chicago location 12.0 10.67 108,445 5.6 9,875 4.32 Average Chicago location near fixed rail 27.9 13.14 123,884 5.4 9,310 4.07 Average Chicago location NOT near fixed rail 12.2 5.22 74,317 5.8 11,766 5.14
  • 11. Zonal Approach <ul><li>Look at transit zones and show that they tend to be location efficient but not always! </li></ul><ul><li>Per Household Emissions </li></ul>Based on Chicago Metropolitan Area Name Residential Density (Households per Residential Acre) Transit Access (Walkable Transit Options) Integrated Employment Proximity (Jobs/Sq Mile) Block Size (Acres) Current HHs CO2/HH Highest Location Efficient Transit Zones 61.7 97.7 671,546 3.4 1.86 High Location Efficient Transit Zones 30.4 25.6 171,750 4.1 3.57 High Medium Location Efficient Transit Zones 9.3 13.2 66,973 5.4 5.25 Medium Location Efficient Transit Zones 3.8 6.4 46,086 12.6 6.29 Low Location Efficient Transit Zones 4.5 1.7 41,088 9.2 6.65 Low Location Efficient Transit Zones 0.7 0.9 17,065 39.6 8.47
  • 12. Zonal Approach Based on Chicago Metropolitan Area
  • 13. GHG Accounting <ul><li>So for transit zones that get developed into TODs the potential is there for the GHG emissions from that zone to actually go up! </li></ul>Based on Chicago Metropolitan Area Name Residential Density Number of Households Current HHs CO2e /HH Current HHs Total CO2e Highest Location Efficient Transit Zones 61.7 17,668 1.86 32,862 High Location Efficient Transit Zones 30.4 9,938 3.57 35,478 High Medium Location Efficient Transit Zones 9.3 3,434 5.25 18,028 Medium Location Efficient Transit Zones 3.8 1,390 6.29 8,740 Low Location Efficient Transit Zones 4.5 1,840 6.65 12,234 Low Location Efficient Transit Zones 0.7 251 8.47 2,123
  • 14. Zonal Approach Based on Chicago Metropolitan Area
  • 15. Regional Analysis <ul><li>However, as a region grows more efficiently the potential is for the entire region the GHG emissions will be less </li></ul><ul><li>Since the per household emissions are being reduced, for the new households </li></ul><ul><li>Case study – the Chicago metro region </li></ul>Additional: Population Households Jobs Region 1,958,715 728,907 1,237,550 Chicago 364,881 159,235 246,640 Suburbs 1,593,834 569,672 990,910
  • 16. Opportunity <ul><li>How will these people and jobs distribute themselves in the next 30 year </li></ul><ul><li>CMAP has modeled how that will happen </li></ul><ul><li>But what if we could develop differently </li></ul><ul><li>With TOD as a central goal we can develop different ways of developing </li></ul>
  • 17. Current Situation <ul><li>Estimate of total GHG emissions from household auto use </li></ul>Total Chicago Suburbs Residential Density 8.1 hh/res acre 13.3 hh/res acre 4.3 hh/res acre Integrated Employment Proximity 63,366 J/m 2 98,300 J/m 2 38,224 J/m 2 Average Block Size 11.6 Acres 5.5 Acres 16.0 Acres Transit Connectivity Index 5.3 8.8 2.8 Median Household Income $54,031/Year $40,217/Year $63,973/Year Average Household Size 2.9 People 2.9 People 2.8 People Average Household Workers 1.3 Workers 1.1 Workers 1.4 Workers Average Time to Work 32.3 Min. 36.3 Min. 29.5 Min. CO 2 /HH Local 6.3 4.9 7.4 Households (Census 2000) 2,906,900 1,063,052 1,843,848 Aggregate CO 2 (CO 2 /HH Local * Households) 18,313,470 5,208,955 13,644,475
  • 18. Current Situation
  • 19. Business as Usual
  • 20. TOD with CMAP Suburban/Urban Growth Constraints
  • 21. TOD with no Growth Constraints
  • 22. Results of Different Growth Patterns 2000 2030 Business as Usual (BAU) TOD with Constraints TOD with no Constraints VMT Total Region 40,727,112,911 48,521,240,467 46,738,979,153 45,726,469,387 Increase of VMT from 2000 7,794,127,556 6,011,866,242 4,999,356,476 CO 2 e (Metric Tons) 18,457,608 21,989,922 21,182,197 20,723,326 Increase in CO 2 e from 2000 3,532,314 2,724,590 2,265,718 CO 2 e Reduction from BAU 807,724 (23%) 1,266,596 (36%)
  • 23. Results of Different Growth Patterns Overall reduction of ~ 39% of 25% ~ 10% of all Regional GHGs! 2000 2030 Business as Usual (BAU) TOD with Constraints TOD with no Constraints VMT Total Region 40,727,112,911 48,521,240,467 46,738,979,153 45,726,469,387 Increase of VMT from 2000 7,794,127,556 6,011,866,242 4,999,356,476 CO 2 e (Metric Tons) 18,457,608 21,989,922 21,182,197 20,723,326 Increase in CO 2 e from 2000 3,532,314 2,724,590 2,265,718 CO 2 e Reduction from BAU 807,724 (23%) 1,266,596 (36%)
  • 24. H+T sm Website and Two Views of Cities <ul><li>http://htaindex.cnt.org/ </li></ul><ul><li>Website initially developed as a result of our work with the Brookings Institution’s Urban Markets Initiative. </li></ul><ul><li>Looks at 55 metropolitan regions, from Ft. Wayne to New York City </li></ul><ul><li>Striking how similar regions are… </li></ul>
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  • 58. Conclusions <ul><li>Location Efficient Development is a very important piece of GHG reductions </li></ul><ul><li>Paper </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Final Document in Peer Review at FTA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Currently developing this work with 3-5 more regional case studies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long term – build a web tool demonstrates these reductions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Improve H+T website to include all 337 metropolitan areas in US </li></ul>
  • 59. For More Information <ul><li>Dr. Peter Haas </li></ul><ul><li>Chief Research Scientist </li></ul><ul><li>Email – pmh@cnt.org </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter – pmh_cnt </li></ul><ul><li>Become a fan of Center for Neighborhood Technology on Facebook </li></ul><ul><li>Phone 773-269-4034 </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.cnt.org </li></ul><ul><li>http://htaindex.cnt.org </li></ul>

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