Making the Invisible Visible:
Understanding the Demographic and Economic
 Forces that Shape Land Use and Development




 ...
Presentation Overview


 Why are demographic and economic forces
  important?
 How to evaluate a local economy
 Bringin...
Why Are Demographic and
Economic Forces Important
The Economy (Jobs & Wealth)




                            Workers (and their
                                families)

...
Coming Demographic Shifts
U.S. Household Structure is Changing


 In 2000, only 1/3 of total households had kids
 under 18
 About 24 percent were ...
A “Minority Majority” Future

By 2023, majority of children will be non-White
By 2042, majority of whole population will b...
Households are Aging

By 2050: 19 million people over the age of 85,
more than three times the number we have
today
Growing Demand for TOD


                               National Demand for TOD by Income, 2030




                      ...
Understanding and Supporting the
        Local Economy
Local Economic Activity Provides:

 Quality of Life for Community Residents
 (jobs/income, services, enrichment)
 Tax Ba...
Standard Land Use Map
Employment
Areas are usually
the least
“understood”
areas in a comp.
plan
But, there is
often
consid...
Employment
areas should be
defined by
“function” and
evaluated
independently


  Location,
  Location,
  Location!
Understand
    Your
  Industries

Driving Industries –
Sell goods and services
beyond city

Household Serving
Industries –...
Monitor
changing
conditions
when defining
land use
policies
Bringing Transportation into
         the Story




                       Source: San Mateo County
Location Matters!
When gas prices increase…
Transportation Costs as % Median HH Income
(Center for Neighborhood Technology: http://htaindex....
Quality Transit has Origins and Destinations

 Map




                              Current Worker Flow
                ...
Plan Strategically for TOD
Four Lessons for
Comprehensive Planning
1. Different opportunities for change influence the
plan approach




     Built Out Community       Developing Community
...
2. Local Economies Are Not Just Local




              Workers in and out


 Job Center
                                 ...
3. Good Land Use Policy can support Economic
                Development




Use Real Estate Market Data
and Projections t...
4. Plan for Diversity




This applies to every aspect of your
            community
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2 Making The Invisible Visible - Abigail Thorne-Lyman

  1. 1. Making the Invisible Visible: Understanding the Demographic and Economic Forces that Shape Land Use and Development Abby Thorne-Lyman Congress for the New Urbanism June 11, 2009
  2. 2. Presentation Overview  Why are demographic and economic forces important?  How to evaluate a local economy  Bringing transportation into the story  Lessons learned for comprehensive planning
  3. 3. Why Are Demographic and Economic Forces Important
  4. 4. The Economy (Jobs & Wealth) Workers (and their families) Population and Job Growth Buildings, Infrastructure, Purview of the Comp Plan Public Services
  5. 5. Coming Demographic Shifts
  6. 6. U.S. Household Structure is Changing  In 2000, only 1/3 of total households had kids under 18  About 24 percent were traditional nuclear families
  7. 7. A “Minority Majority” Future By 2023, majority of children will be non-White By 2042, majority of whole population will be non- White
  8. 8. Households are Aging By 2050: 19 million people over the age of 85, more than three times the number we have today
  9. 9. Growing Demand for TOD National Demand for TOD by Income, 2030 $75,000 and Gre r ate Only 1/3 of demand is at the 21 % L s Than es $20,000 m edian incom or above e 29% $50,000 - $74,999 1 3% $20,000 - $35,000 - $34,999 $49,999 1 9% 1 4%
  10. 10. Understanding and Supporting the Local Economy
  11. 11. Local Economic Activity Provides:  Quality of Life for Community Residents (jobs/income, services, enrichment)  Tax Base for the Community (property taxes, sales tax, etc.)  Metropolitan Competitiveness and Prosperity (providing jobs, workers, or both to regional economic “niches”)
  12. 12. Standard Land Use Map Employment Areas are usually the least “understood” areas in a comp. plan But, there is often considerable pressure to convert employment lands to other uses.
  13. 13. Employment areas should be defined by “function” and evaluated independently Location, Location, Location!
  14. 14. Understand Your Industries Driving Industries – Sell goods and services beyond city Household Serving Industries – Provides goods and services for residents (and other people in the city) Business Serving Industries – Provides services to other businesses in the city
  15. 15. Monitor changing conditions when defining land use policies
  16. 16. Bringing Transportation into the Story Source: San Mateo County
  17. 17. Location Matters!
  18. 18. When gas prices increase… Transportation Costs as % Median HH Income (Center for Neighborhood Technology: http://htaindex.cnt.org) $1.81 /gallon $4.47/gallon
  19. 19. Quality Transit has Origins and Destinations  Map Current Worker Flow to Boyle Heights, Downtown Current Worker Flow from BH
  20. 20. Plan Strategically for TOD
  21. 21. Four Lessons for Comprehensive Planning
  22. 22. 1. Different opportunities for change influence the plan approach Built Out Community Developing Community Understand Your Opportunities for Change
  23. 23. 2. Local Economies Are Not Just Local Workers in and out Job Center Bedroom Community Always Consider the Regional Context
  24. 24. 3. Good Land Use Policy can support Economic Development Use Real Estate Market Data and Projections to Test Land Use Assumptions
  25. 25. 4. Plan for Diversity This applies to every aspect of your community
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