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2 Making The Invisible Visible - Abigail Thorne-Lyman

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Comprehensive New Urbanism for Comprehensive Plans - Thorne-Lyman - CNU17

Comprehensive New Urbanism for Comprehensive Plans - Thorne-Lyman - CNU17

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  • 1. Making the Invisible Visible: Understanding the Demographic and Economic Forces that Shape Land Use and Development Abby Thorne-Lyman Congress for the New Urbanism June 11, 2009
  • 2. Presentation Overview  Why are demographic and economic forces important?  How to evaluate a local economy  Bringing transportation into the story  Lessons learned for comprehensive planning
  • 3. Why Are Demographic and Economic Forces Important
  • 4. The Economy (Jobs & Wealth) Workers (and their families) Population and Job Growth Buildings, Infrastructure, Purview of the Comp Plan Public Services
  • 5. Coming Demographic Shifts
  • 6. U.S. Household Structure is Changing  In 2000, only 1/3 of total households had kids under 18  About 24 percent were traditional nuclear families
  • 7. A “Minority Majority” Future By 2023, majority of children will be non-White By 2042, majority of whole population will be non- White
  • 8. Households are Aging By 2050: 19 million people over the age of 85, more than three times the number we have today
  • 9. Growing Demand for TOD National Demand for TOD by Income, 2030 $75,000 and Gre r ate Only 1/3 of demand is at the 21 % L s Than es $20,000 m edian incom or above e 29% $50,000 - $74,999 1 3% $20,000 - $35,000 - $34,999 $49,999 1 9% 1 4%
  • 10. Understanding and Supporting the Local Economy
  • 11. Local Economic Activity Provides:  Quality of Life for Community Residents (jobs/income, services, enrichment)  Tax Base for the Community (property taxes, sales tax, etc.)  Metropolitan Competitiveness and Prosperity (providing jobs, workers, or both to regional economic “niches”)
  • 12. Standard Land Use Map Employment Areas are usually the least “understood” areas in a comp. plan But, there is often considerable pressure to convert employment lands to other uses.
  • 13. Employment areas should be defined by “function” and evaluated independently Location, Location, Location!
  • 14. Understand Your Industries Driving Industries – Sell goods and services beyond city Household Serving Industries – Provides goods and services for residents (and other people in the city) Business Serving Industries – Provides services to other businesses in the city
  • 15. Monitor changing conditions when defining land use policies
  • 16. Bringing Transportation into the Story Source: San Mateo County
  • 17. Location Matters!
  • 18. When gas prices increase… Transportation Costs as % Median HH Income (Center for Neighborhood Technology: http://htaindex.cnt.org) $1.81 /gallon $4.47/gallon
  • 19. Quality Transit has Origins and Destinations  Map Current Worker Flow to Boyle Heights, Downtown Current Worker Flow from BH
  • 20. Plan Strategically for TOD
  • 21. Four Lessons for Comprehensive Planning
  • 22. 1. Different opportunities for change influence the plan approach Built Out Community Developing Community Understand Your Opportunities for Change
  • 23. 2. Local Economies Are Not Just Local Workers in and out Job Center Bedroom Community Always Consider the Regional Context
  • 24. 3. Good Land Use Policy can support Economic Development Use Real Estate Market Data and Projections to Test Land Use Assumptions
  • 25. 4. Plan for Diversity This applies to every aspect of your community

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