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September 2007 Cleveland Plus Quarterly Economic Review
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September 2007 Cleveland Plus Quarterly Economic Review

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Our economy's growth of 32% in the last 15 years surprises many. Regional unemployment has risen slightly from last year, as has job seekers. Jobs are at a 5 year high. Ohio manufacturers have …

Our economy's growth of 32% in the last 15 years surprises many. Regional unemployment has risen slightly from last year, as has job seekers. Jobs are at a 5 year high. Ohio manufacturers have improved output by 50% since the early 1990s. Key data and indicators included: Real GRP changes by sector & manufacturing sector, manufacturing productivity & employment, unemployment.

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  • 1. Welcome to the 3rd edition of our Quarterly Regional Economic Review for Northeast Ohio, the publication that provides a true economic view of the 16-county Cleveland Plus™ region. Manufacturing is 20% of our This installment takes a deeper look at industry sectors that provide consistent growth. economy with output slightly above 15 years ago. The other 80% of our Competing via Productivity and Innovation Diversified Economy Accounts for Growth economy has grown more than 40%. For today’s manufacturers, productivity and quality are vital. Overall, Northeast Ohio’s manufacturers Our economy’s total growth of 32% in the last 15 years is surprising to many people who think the have improved their output per worker by 50% since the early 1990s. Cleveland Plus™ region is stagnant or declining. Though once known as a manufacturing-centric hub, Northeast Ohio has been successfully diversifying its economy. Real GRP Change: 1992–2007 Manufacturing Productivity & Employment: Millions (2006 Dollars) % Change 1992–2007 Real GRP Change: 1992–2007 Billions (2006 Dollars) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 35% Chemical Mfg Chemical Mfg 16% Fabricated Metal Prod Mfg $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 Fabricated Metal Prod Mfg Transportation Equip Mfg 9% Transportation Equip Mfg 58% Real Estate/Rental & Leasing Machinery Mfg 19% Machinery Mfg 22% All Other Industries Miscellaneous Mfg* 48% Miscellaneous Mfg* 60% Plastics & Rubber Prod Mfg Finance & Insurance 11% Plastics & Rubber Prod Mfg Printing & Support Activities 56% Retail Trade 14% Printing & Support Activities Elec Equip, Appl & Cmpnt Mfg 51% Wholesale Trade 1% Elec Equip, Appl & Cmpnt Mfg Paper Mfg 74% Food Mfg Prof, Sci & Tech Services (-2%) Paper Mfg Nonmetallic Mineral Prod Mfg 38% (-3%) Food Mfg Health Care & Social Asst All Other Mfg (-12%) 64% Nonmetallic Mineral Prod Mfg Information Primary Metal Mfg (-28%) All Other Mfg 88% Mgmt of Companies/Entps % Productivity Chg % Emp Chg (-31%) Primary Metal Mfg 16% Public Administration 6% Manufacturing 2007 GRP 1992 GRP Source: Moody’s Economy.com Source: Moody’s Economy.com 2007 GRP 1992 GRP Source: Moody’s Economy.com Ohio manufacturers These gains in competitiveness have helped maintain our manufacturing output, even though fewer people are employed. Manufacturing employment continues Source: Moody’s Economy.com have improved output Manufacturing Stable with Sector Diversification to be about 15% of the region’s total employment. In addition, many professional and technical service firms Highlighting output in real dollars from 1992 – 2007 (estimated), along with percent per worker by 50% in NEO serve manufacturers, and assist in achieving change, the chart features the 10 largest sectors of our economy, ranked by largest The overall stability of manufacturing output in Northeast Ohio is not widely recognized. these productivity gains. This chart complements dollar growth. Note that most sectors have seen strong growth over this period. Though Global competition has led to many changes, and, not surprisingly, the negative changes the Manufacturing Sector GRP Change chart on the manufacturing has grown the least, it remains very important as it represents 20% of our since the early 1990s. previous page, providing a side-by-side view of each economic ouput. However, manufacturing often overshadows the other 80% because the have captured the headlines. manufacturing sector’s GRP change in relation to makeup of the balance is so diverse, comprising finance, professional/technical services, its productivity (output per worker) and change in The reality is that total Northeast Ohio manufacturing real output has increased 6% compared to 15 years ago. This is due to retail/wholesale trade, healthcare and others. Collectively, these other sectors have grown employment. Notice the growing sectors (top of the the diversification in manufacturing sectors, as the region’s chemical (plastics, rubber, paint, specialties) and fabricated metal 42% over the last 15 years. Businesses of many kinds are growing in the Cleveland Plus chart) have shown the biggest gains in productivity, manufacturing are experiencing significant growth while primary metals continue to decline. The chart ranks sectors by largest region. Our economy is becoming more diverse, which is good for the long term. and have also shown relatively smaller employment dollar growth. Most sectors are up; seven had increases of 9% or more, while three showed decreases of 12% or greater. Similar losses. Productivity targeted at innovation and to our total economy, our manufacturing sector’s stability is in large part due to our successful diversification, transforming our growth helps retain jobs for the long term. Many NEO economy with a change in the sector mix. manufacturing sectors are showing impressive gains. Productivity has increased to keep business competitive.
  • 2. The economy in Northeast Ohio has grown in 14 of the last 15 years. Regional Unemployment Rate Now Above Last Year. Job Seekers Up NEO 16: Real GRP Northeast Ohio Billions (2006 Dollars) Quarterly Unemployment Rate Economy Expected The region’s improving employment trend appears to have stalled. Each quarter we take two different 180 to Grow for 6th 1.0% looks at the job picture: one is a snapshot of 1.4% 7.5% 1.1% 170 2.6% the current unemployment rate without seasonal Consecutive Year 7.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.3% 1.2% adjustment, the second is the moving average 2.6% (-1.9%) 160 6.5% Annual 4.8% of total jobs to see the longer-term trend. These Northeast Percent 6.0% Change 150 3.0% two views are showing both strengths and The most recent estimate from 5.5% 3.8% weaknesses. Economy.com predicts our gross 5.1% 140 5.0% regional output will grow again for the Ohio 3.6% 0.3% 4.5% The regional unemployment rate has been 130 6th consecutive year, yielding steady 4.0% following the pattern of both the U.S. and Ohio in growth in 14 of the last 15 years. 120 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 recent quarters. Although the trend was similar, the 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1992 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Growth is estimated at 1% for this year. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Economic U.S. rate was better than that of both Ohio and the Over the last 15 years, Northeast Ohio’s Real GRP Average Annual Growth = 2.0% NEO 16 Ohio U.S. Team NEO region. This gap widened in the 2nd economic output is up 32% for an quarter as the U.S. rate dropped nearly a half point annual growth rate of 2% per year. Review Source: Moody’s Economy.com from 4.8% to 4.4%, while the NEO rate dropped Source: Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data) only a tenth of a percent from 6% to 5.9%. The unemployment rate consists of the number of people working and the number who are out of work and looking for work. Comparing the unemployment rate to a year ago, the U.S. rate is lower, while the Ohio and NEO rates are above last year. Over the last two quarters, September 2007 total jobs in NEO have actually increased by more than 29,000. However, nearly 8,000 additional people are now looking for work. Thus Data Sources the ratio has deteriorated. Team NEO uses a number of data sources for the Regional Economic Review. One of the primary sources is the Moody’s Economy.com NEO economy (www.economy.com) regional modeling system. This firm is the leading independent provider of economic, financial and industry research and data that specializes in national and metropolitan economic growth forecasts. Moody’s Economy.com county level output, employment and payroll historical data are estimated from several publicly available sources and are summarized into the Team NEO regional footprint. Total Jobs Have Leveled, but Still at a Five-Year High It is important to understand data provided by Economy.com are estimates of economic activity. continues on path to Team NEO also uses data from federal and state sources as part of the report. As with Economy.com, the information for the Team NEO We see a leveling off of the past two-year NEO Total Employment: footprint is derived from data reported at either the county or metropolitan level. We rely heavily on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor improvement when we look at the 4-quarter moving Statistics (www.bls.gov) and Ohio’s Labor Market Information (www.lmi.state.oh.us) for information on wages, unemployment and both average of total jobs. Total employment is still at one (4-Quarter Moving Average) general and industry-specific employment. In addition, Team NEO uses data from the Census (www.census.gov) to track housing-related 6 consecutive year of the highest levels in the last five years. th activity including the number of single and multifamily permits, as well as their values. 2.06 Among major industry sectors, jobs grew in 2.05 Professional and Business Services (2,700) and in Education and Healthcare (2,300). Manufacturing 2.04 of growth. jobs declined by 9,500 jobs between the 2nd quarter Millions 2.03 of 2006 and the same period of 2007. However, 737 Bolivar Road, Suite 2000 2.02 manufacturing jobs grew by 600 between the first Cleveland, Ohio 44115 and second quarter of 2007. Other sectors losing 2.01 www.teamneo.org jobs between the 2nd quarters of 2006 and 2007 888.NEO.1411 This report made possible through the generous 2.00 were Trade, Transportation, Utilities (-1,400) and www.clevelandplusbusiness.com support of Charter One Foundation. Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Government (-2,600). Other industries, such as 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Construction, Information, Financial Activities and NEO Total Employment Leisure & Hospitality, had smaller gains and losses. Source: Ohio Labor Market Information